ตลาดส่งออกข้าวไทยปี 67 เผชิญหลายปัจจัยรุมเร้า
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00:00 Let's talk about the delivery to Thailand.
00:02 According to the information from the Foreign Trade Organization,
00:05 this year, compared to the previous year,
00:08 the number of deliveries has slowed down.
00:10 There are many factors that affect the delivery.
00:14 But we will also listen to the perspective of the individual.
00:16 How will they see it?
00:18 Today, we are talking to the President of the Kittimasak Society,
00:21 the Thai delivery man, Mr. Chuket Okpatwong.
00:24 Hello, Mr. Chuket.
00:25 Hello, Mr. Chuket.
00:26 Hello, Mr. Achavin. I'm from the Foreign Trade Organization.
00:30 What are your thoughts on the Thai delivery this year?
00:34 I've talked to the Ministry of Finance
00:40 and we have set a target this year
00:44 to decrease from last year.
00:47 Last year, we delivered 8.76 million tons,
00:52 almost 8.8 million tons.
00:53 But this year, we will set a target of 7.5 million tons.
01:00 That is to reduce by 15% from the delivery rate
01:06 compared to last year.
01:08 Why is the target of the delivery
01:11 to reduce by 7.5 million tons?
01:15 We see that this year,
01:18 the delivery market has slowed down.
01:23 Because of the big buyers,
01:27 such as Indonesia and the Philippines,
01:29 who delivered a lot last year.
01:34 For example, the Philippines delivered
01:37 almost 4 million tons last year,
01:40 around 3.8 million tons.
01:42 Indonesia delivered around 4 million tons.
01:46 This year, I think the two countries
01:50 should be less likely to deliver.
01:54 Last year, there was the El Nino incident
01:56 and there was an election in Indonesia.
02:03 There was an election last year.
02:06 They probably don't want the delivery price to rise
02:11 and create a problem for the people.
02:15 So they delivered a lot of food
02:19 to guarantee that the price inside will not rise.
02:24 And there is also the issue of air pollution.
02:28 So we see that last year, they delivered a lot.
02:32 And this year, their delivery should be less.
02:37 We think that Indonesia this year,
02:41 from 4 million tons last year,
02:43 will only have around 2 million.
02:44 Yes, it has increased by a lot.
02:47 Yes, so we have adjusted our numbers
02:53 to match the world's sales this year.
03:00 It should be less.
03:02 This is one of the reasons.
03:04 The second reason is that
03:08 we think that India,
03:11 which is known for banning the delivery of rice,
03:15 last year,
03:18 and India itself,
03:20 will have an election this year as well.
03:23 After the election,
03:27 we think that India will change
03:30 in the delivery policy.
03:33 They will have the same delivery.
03:38 Yes.
03:38 In the past,
03:40 they were worried about the price of rice in the country
03:44 which has risen.
03:45 They will have a higher price of rice.
03:49 But I think that after the election,
03:54 India will return to the same delivery policy.
03:57 Yes.
03:58 So if India starts to deliver,
04:02 we know that India is the number one country
04:05 in the world right now.
04:08 They have delivered around 20 million tons this year.
04:13 Even last year,
04:15 when India banned the delivery of rice,
04:18 they still delivered around 17.5 million tons.
04:22 Yes.
04:23 So if India starts to deliver again this year,
04:30 I think that our market share
04:35 will increase in another part of the country.
04:39 So the important factors that we are looking at today
04:43 are the two main factors.
04:46 The fact that the number of buyers has decreased,
04:49 and India might be able to return to the same delivery policy
04:52 in the next six months.
04:54 That's why we set a target
04:57 for this year's delivery
04:59 to decrease from last year.
05:00 That's an important reason.
05:02 Yes.
05:02 And if we look at the production,
05:05 the El Nino project will have an impact
05:07 on the production of Thai rice this year.
05:10 We saw that the Ministry of Agriculture
05:14 said that the number of rice will decrease a little
05:18 because of the rice fertilizers.
05:20 Yes.
05:21 The water in the rice fields
05:24 might not be enough.
05:25 Yes.
05:26 There might not be enough water
05:28 for the rice to grow.
05:31 So the amount of rice will decrease.
05:34 But it doesn't seem like it's decreasing much.
05:39 From 32 million,
05:40 there might be around 31 million left.
05:45 That's not a significant amount
05:48 for the production of rice in Thailand.
05:53 Yes.
05:53 And how is the production of rice in Thailand right now?
05:58 In other countries?
06:00 In Thailand.
06:01 Well, actually,
06:05 I think that the amount of rice
06:09 in this year's delivery
06:13 to the end of the year
06:16 shouldn't decrease.
06:17 Yes.
06:18 Because the price of rice
06:21 is quite good.
06:24 Yes.
06:25 One grain costs around 12,000 baht.
06:28 I believe that farmers should grow more rice.
06:33 Even if there's less water,
06:37 they can use other methods,
06:39 such as digging up the rice fields.
06:43 Because the price is good for the rice to grow.
06:47 So, if it wasn't for the flood,
06:53 we wouldn't be able to grow rice now.
06:58 If it was a normal rain season,
07:04 I believe that our production
07:08 would be in a good range this year.
07:10 Yes.
07:10 There shouldn't be any problems.
07:12 Mr. Chuket, let's talk about the price.
07:15 This year, the price of Thai rice in the global market
07:17 is higher.
07:18 But as we know,
07:20 the price of Thai rice is still quite high.
07:22 How is the situation now compared to the previous year?
07:26 There's a clear example.
07:29 On Monday,
07:31 there was a bid
07:34 for 500,000 tons of rice in Indonesia.
07:37 Thai rice was not accepted,
07:39 not even a single ton.
07:41 It was a bid from a government agency
07:46 called Bulog.
07:47 It was a G2P bid.
07:49 It was a bid from the private sector
07:54 and the international community.
07:59 Vietnam received 400,000 tons of rice.
08:04 The rest was from North Korea.
08:06 The price is 30,000 THB lower than Thailand.
08:12 This shows that
08:15 the price is quite high.
08:20 Vietnam is in the middle of a new production season.
08:26 The price is decreasing rapidly.
08:28 Last year,
08:30 the price of rice in Vietnam was higher than that of Thailand.
08:33 Yes.
08:34 But now,
08:36 the price is 30,000 THB lower than Thailand.
08:38 This makes it harder
08:43 to compete with the global market.
08:47 This is a clear example
08:51 that the price is still quite high.
08:56 The price of rice in the competition is decreasing,
08:58 which makes it harder to sell.
09:00 But at the beginning of this year,
09:04 I think our export is still doing well.
09:07 Yes.
09:08 Since the order was still pending
09:11 last year,
09:13 I think we exported
09:15 around 800,000 tons
09:17 of rice
09:19 in the month of February and February.
09:23 But what I'm worried about is
09:25 what will happen
09:28 in the next 2nd and 3rd quarters.
09:30 If our price is still high
09:33 and our competitors
09:36 lower the price
09:39 than us,
09:41 it may cause problems
09:44 in our export.
09:46 If we export 600,000-500,000 tons
09:50 in a month, it may be possible.
09:52 Yes.
09:52 So what should we do
09:54 to make Thai rice
09:56 more competitive with competitors?
09:57 Because it's a topic
09:58 that we've been talking about for a long time.
10:02 We have to look at the long term.
10:05 Yes.
10:05 Because in the short term,
10:07 it's hard to do anything.
10:08 In the long term,
10:11 we need to have
10:13 new rice
10:15 that can produce high yields.
10:17 Yes.
10:18 For example,
10:21 in Thailand,
10:23 the rice can be grown
10:27 in a field
10:29 that produces around 900 kg.
10:31 In India,
10:32 it's around 800 kg per field.
10:34 Yes.
10:35 While in Thailand,
10:37 our rice
10:39 is around 450 kg.
10:44 Yes.
10:45 We have to increase the price
10:47 to be equal
10:49 or above
10:52 the competitors' price
10:55 to reduce the cost.
10:57 Yes.
10:58 So we can compete
11:02 in the global market in the future.
11:04 Yes.
11:05 That's what we expect to happen.
11:09 Yes.
11:10 In addition to rice cultivation,
11:12 what other projects
11:13 should be implemented
11:15 to improve the rice production?
11:17 Actually,
11:19 I think there are many factors
11:21 that can reduce
11:23 the production cost.
11:25 Yes.
11:26 Whether it's rice cultivation,
11:29 which is a major issue.
11:31 Yes.
11:31 It's a big issue.
11:33 We need rice
11:35 that produces high yields
11:37 and short-term storage.
11:40 For example,
11:42 in Vietnam, we can store rice for 90 days.
11:44 Yes.
11:44 But in Thailand, it takes 120 days.
11:47 Yes.
11:47 Secondly, we need to invest
11:50 in infrastructure
11:54 especially in areas
11:56 that need
11:59 rainwater.
12:01 For example, in the Northeastern region,
12:03 there should be more
12:05 water storage.
12:08 Yes.
12:08 Because the Northeastern region
12:11 depends on rainwater.
12:14 Yes.
12:15 90% of the time,
12:17 when it rains,
12:19 it's bad,
12:19 and there's a problem.
12:21 So in this area,
12:23 we should invest
12:26 in water storage
12:29 so that there's more water
12:32 and it's available in all areas
12:35 where we can store water
12:38 and we don't have to worry
12:41 about rainwater.
12:44 That's another part.
12:46 Yes.
12:46 I think that
12:48 in terms of the carbon footprint,
12:50 in terms of agriculture,
12:51 like the crop,
12:54 I think the government
12:56 should do something
12:59 to reduce the cost
13:01 of agriculture
13:05 so that it's cheaper.
13:07 It's a way to reduce costs.
13:09 There are many factors.
13:11 Yes.
13:12 Thank you, Mr. Chuket.
13:15 Thank you.
13:16 Thank you.
13:17 Goodbye.
13:18 Goodbye.
13:19 I must admit that this is
13:20 a very important issue.
13:21 If we leave it like this,
13:23 the competitors will
13:25 leave us behind.
13:26 They're already teasing us.
13:27 They're the big shots
13:29 of the state
13:30 who have to solve this problem.