مصر .. كيف تأثر سعر الدولار في السوق الموازية برفع الفائدة؟
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00:00 At the time when most analysts expected the Central Bank to increase interest rates in the first meetings of 2024,
00:13 the Central Bank surprised the markets and increased interest rates by 200 points in the first meetings of 2024.
00:23 Let's look at the reasons that pushed the Central Bank to increase interest rates during this period.
00:36 First, the Central Bank said that inflation rates are higher than expected.
00:42 The latest data in December indicated an increase of 33.7% in inflation rate,
00:48 but these are very high levels compared to the targets of the Central Bank.
00:54 The main inflation, which exceeds food and energy, also increased by 34.2% in the 110 consumer prices.
01:02 This is in December readings.
01:04 The Central Bank said that the next period has seen an increase in inflation rates,
01:11 because there were increases in electricity prices, fuel prices, and other prices in January.
01:21 All of these factors may increase inflation rates.
01:25 In addition, geopolitical tensions and the salt crisis in the Suez Canal are all factors that lead to an increase in inflation rates and a decrease in dollar interest rates for the country.
01:36 Also, the deal with the Central Bank was decided after long talks between the Central Bank's representative and the Central Bank's ambassador in Egypt.
01:47 There are big news about the approach to the agreement,
01:50 and the increase in the funding package from $3 billion to some estimates that indicate $10 billion or between these numbers.
01:59 This could lead to a new funding package, and we will see this in the next period.
02:06 What is also important is the increase in the cash flow in Egypt, which increased by 36% in December last year.
02:15 This is one of the highest levels that Egypt has seen in terms of cash flow availability,
02:20 reaching 2.3 trillion Egyptian pounds in the Egyptian market or as a local currency.
02:28 But the question here is how the exchange rate for the dollar has affected the Egyptian pound in the global market.
02:36 In response to the increase in interest rates and the start of the talk about some news about deals to sell assets to the Egyptian government,
02:44 we saw a decline in the dollar in the dollar exchange rate for the Egyptian pound from 71 pounds three days ago on Thursday.
02:54 The Egyptian pound has reached 60.45 pounds, down by about 10 pounds in three days.
03:03 We also look at the expectations related to the reduction of the Egyptian central bank in exchange rate for the dollar.
03:12 We see that Societe Generale expects that the exchange rate will be 40 to 45 pounds per dollar.
03:22 This will also pay the central bank to issue new savings certificates with high interest rates.
03:28 We have seen a 27% increase in the interest rate, which is more than 500 billion pounds.
03:34 We also talked about the news about deals to sell some assets.
03:39 We are talking about the land of the wisdom head, which was discussed last week,
03:44 with a project worth 1.22 billion dollars.
03:47 This is what the news talked about and has not been confirmed yet.
03:51 The Egyptian central bank has violated expectations related to the reduction of interest rates and is looking to increase them.
03:58 We are looking at a new reduction in the value of the Egyptian pound.