Eyes On This Week's Nifty Bank Expiry | The F&O Show | NDTV Profit - video Dailymotion

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Transcript

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01:20 - Markets trade flat with a positive bias.

01:26 Sensex trades about 72,100,

01:29 while the Nifty's choppy to trade at 21,800.

01:33 (upbeat music)

01:36 Data Motors jumps over 7%.

01:39 On back of strong earnings,

01:41 the company's revenue witnessed a 25% uptick

01:44 while margins expanded substantially.

01:46 And Paytm concerns continue as the stock hits lower circuit

01:51 for the third straight session.

01:53 The company wiped out 20,485 rupees of market cap so far.

01:58 And State Bank of India reported

02:01 their third quarter numbers on Saturday.

02:03 The bank reported a 35% decline in their profit

02:06 while showing an improvement on the NPA front.

02:09 The National Credit Guarantee Trust Company

02:13 has issued a forcenic audit on Bandhan Bank.

02:16 That's an NDTV profit exclusive,

02:18 and we'll get you more details on the show.

02:20 (upbeat music)

02:36 - Well, those are the top headlines

02:37 we are tracking at 10.30 a.m.

02:39 The markets, remember, looking a little lukewarm

02:42 after being very, very volatile

02:44 with a very clear positive bias on Friday.

02:46 Well, it was topsy-turvy,

02:48 but this morning is all about earnings

02:49 and a reaction to that.

02:51 A quick check on how the index is trading in early trade.

02:54 We did see a flat to slightly positive opening,

02:58 and that's exactly what's happening on the index.

03:00 The Nifty trading with a gain of 17 points,

03:02 21,872 is what it trades at.

03:05 The breadth of the market, though,

03:07 is not looking too good.

03:08 I mean, it is actually looking pretty good.

03:10 A bias on the upside, but big cuts coming in

03:13 on back of earnings in a couple of stocks

03:14 that we'll highlight for you.

03:16 On the gaining side, you have Tata Motors

03:19 that is stealing the show.

03:21 Strong set of earnings being posted.

03:22 Brokerages seem optimistic,

03:24 and it seems like the road ahead looks very, very promising.

03:28 Fourth quarter expected to be seasonally a better quarter

03:31 than what the company has already posted.

03:33 Remember, Tata Motors has been

03:34 the best performing counter of 2023,

03:36 and it's no different at the start of 2024.

03:39 Recently overtook the market gap of Maruti Suzuki,

03:42 and the outperformance on the counter continues

03:45 with a 7% up move in trade this morning.

03:48 OMCs continue to look good.

03:50 BPCL again pulling out 4.5% gains in trade this morning.

03:55 It was one of the top performing counters on Friday,

03:57 and it's no different this morning either.

04:00 PSUs are the focus.

04:01 Coal India is up 3.5%.

04:03 ONGC is also looking good.

04:05 So, OMCs as a pack are having quite a field day

04:08 in trade this morning.

04:09 Apart from that, you've got M&M, NTPC, Adani Ports,

04:13 Adani Group Companies on the nifty 50,

04:16 all trading with a clear positive bias.

04:18 IT not doing too badly either.

04:20 Pharma and Auto also having a positive session.

04:24 On the sell side, weak set of numbers on UPL,

04:26 and the stock gets a thumbs down,

04:28 7.5% cut on UPL this morning.

04:30 Apart from that, you've got Bharati Airtel, HDFC Bank,

04:33 that's once again trading flat with a negative bias.

04:36 Ultratech Cement, Titan Company.

04:38 So, banks still continue to be absent in today's trade.

04:42 Remember, leadership of Bank Nifty is going to be critical

04:45 for the nifty's next leg of rally.

04:48 And across the broader market space,

04:50 you've got lots of other movers and shakers.

04:52 Paytm continues to see a 10% cut in trade this morning.

04:55 Bank of India is seeing some weakness.

04:58 You've got EIL, Devyani International, Rail Vikas,

05:02 IRFC, all seeing cuts of 3% to 4% each.

05:06 On the gaining side,

05:07 Yuco Bank is up quite sharply with a 10% up move.

05:11 So, PSUs across the board, like I said,

05:13 are looking pretty good in the sun.

05:15 IOP also trading with a gain of 8.5% to 9%.

05:19 Central Bank of India, IDPI, IOC, to name a few,

05:23 are having a pretty good session.

05:24 So, that's pretty much the picture.

05:26 The Wix Index has also declined a little bit in trades.

05:29 That could be a little more comfort

05:30 coming in for the straight.

05:31 The long-shot ratio has actually increased

05:34 from 22% to 32.5% as FBIs turned net buyers on Friday,

05:39 cutting out short positions

05:40 and building fresh long positions.

05:42 So, those are a few factors that may potentially

05:44 contribute to the next up move for the markets.

05:46 But moving on from the markets to an NDTV profit exclusive,

05:50 the National Credit Guarantee Trust Company

05:53 has issued a forecenic audit on Bandhan Bank.

05:56 Pragati Oberoi joins in with more details on this.

05:58 Pragati, what are your sources telling you

06:00 Bandhan Bank in focus this morning?

06:02 Yes, Amina, you're absolutely right.

06:03 Bandhan Bank is on our focus

06:04 because the Bandhan Bank's credit guarantee portfolio,

06:08 which is worth 23,300 crore rupees,

06:11 is under the forensic audit.

06:13 Now, according to an internal document

06:15 circulated by the trust,

06:16 we know that Bandhan Bank's entire credit guarantee portfolio

06:20 is under this forensic audit.

06:22 The catch word here is forensic

06:24 because when an organization like NCGTC

06:26 conducts such an audit,

06:28 it usually does when there are suspicions of malice,

06:30 like evergreening of loans

06:31 or creation of fictitious accounts.

06:34 Now, on 9th Jan,

06:35 that's where the context of this entire story lies,

06:38 on 9th Jan, Bandhan Bank told the exchanges

06:40 that NCGTC was conducting a detailed audit

06:44 of just the CGMFU portfolio for FY21 specifically,

06:48 for the second tranche of the CGFMU claim.

06:51 But as we reviewed the document,

06:53 we got to know that the audit or the forensic audit

06:56 is not just for this one claim or this one tranche.

06:59 The review includes the entire portfolio

07:02 and this has CGFMU lending worth 20,800 crore rupees

07:06 to 29 lakh borrowers

07:08 and 2,500 crore rupees ECLGS loan to 22 lakh entities.

07:13 And the periods under review are also bifurcated

07:16 and not exactly as per what the bank told exchanges.

07:20 The periods under review are CGFMU for FY21

07:23 for 5.5 lakh borrowers when they became NPAs

07:26 and ECLGS from May 2020 to June 30,

07:29 where 7.55 lakh borrowers were classified as NPAs.

07:34 Another interesting bit here is that,

07:36 our sources told us that NCGTC initially conducted

07:39 a preliminary audit in late 2023,

07:42 but they had their concerns

07:43 and this is why they initiated the entire forensic audit.

07:46 While both the portfolios in their entirety

07:49 are under this forensic audit,

07:51 we know that the focus remains of 4.9 lakh borrowers

07:54 which have been classified as NPAs.

07:56 That's what sources are telling us

07:58 because they're trying to exactly identify

08:00 that who are these 4.9 lakh borrowers

08:03 who have not repaid these amounts.

08:05 That's the NDTV profit exclusive for you.

08:06 We'll bring you more updates as and when we have them.

08:09 - Thank you for that Prakriti.

08:13 That is the big story,

08:14 the stock under pressure down 2.5% as we see it.

08:18 We're now joined by Aditya Arora,

08:20 who will be joining us to take us through his,

08:22 of course, topics and Vinay Rajani.

08:24 Vinay, good morning.

08:25 Thanks and Aditya, thanks for joining us.

08:27 Vinay, I'll start with you first.

08:29 What are you making on the Nifty?

08:30 What sort of a trade would you be recommending?

08:33 We did make an intraday life high on Friday.

08:36 Also saw the long shot ratios improve from 22 to 32.5%

08:40 with FIs cutting short positions

08:43 and initiating fresh longs.

08:45 Would you go long on the index this morning

08:48 since there is an opportunity of sorts?

08:50 - Yeah, good morning and thanks for having me on the show.

08:53 So we saw a high of 22,126 on Friday

08:57 and we saw a large profit booking on that day only

09:01 and closed on a weaker note,

09:02 especially the bank Nifty,

09:03 the private sector banks were not supporting

09:05 and because of that, index did not close

09:08 on a stronger wicket, especially the bank Nifty.

09:11 But if you were to look at the overall trend,

09:12 it is still positive.

09:13 It is likely that we may oscillate

09:15 between 21,800 to 22,000.

09:18 So 21,800 is a technical support

09:21 and 22,000 is a strike price

09:24 where we have been witnessing some call writing happening.

09:27 So unless we see a decisive close about 22,000,

09:30 Nifty may remain into consolidation zone.

09:32 So I don't see any momentum coming back in the market

09:35 as of now, stock specific action may continue

09:38 while benchmark indices will remain in the range.

09:40 So broader range for next couple of session,

09:42 I believe 21,800 to 22,000 for the Nifty

09:46 with the overall bias on the positive side

09:48 only because the primary trend has been bullish

09:50 and Nifty hit all day just on a Friday.

09:53 So there is no negative sign,

09:56 but the kind of results season

09:58 we are passing through the results season,

10:00 so many results are going to affect

10:02 the overall benchmark indices.

10:04 So I would suggest that better to take a buy on dips

10:07 kind of trading in the Nifty.

10:10 So if it comes down to 21,800,

10:12 there could be a possibility of going long.

10:15 So at that point,

10:16 you can keep a stop loss of 100 points

10:17 and aim for the target of 22,000.

10:20 So buy on dips is a strategy for Nifty

10:22 and as far as Bank Nifty is concerned,

10:23 I would rather wait

10:24 because the relative setup is looking weak

10:26 and it is not participating.

10:28 So on the upside 46,500 is a strong resistance.

10:32 So unless it closes above that,

10:34 I would wait for rather in Bank Nifty.

10:36 So it is looking weak.

10:37 So better to wait for Nifty to come down at 21,800

10:40 and take a long with a stop loss of 21,700.

10:44 - Right, wait for the Nifty to come down to 21,800

10:47 before initiating fresh longs.

10:49 Aditya, how do you feel about the index?

10:51 Would you consider going long

10:53 or do you expect the markets remain sideways

10:55 at least for the next few days?

10:58 - Very good morning.

10:59 I think as per our system,

11:01 which follows a Bollinger band and range trading setup.

11:05 So as per that, we have hit the upper range of the channel

11:09 and at this point, markets are taking resistance

11:11 from the resistance point wherein we saw a steep correction

11:16 in Nifty on Friday

11:18 and today Bank Nifty is also showing some sluggishness.

11:22 So we think the bias is on the downside

11:24 and if we look at the large caps like L&T,

11:29 which came with poor results,

11:30 SBI also came with poor results

11:33 and similarly we saw a good dent in HDFC Bank also,

11:36 which is actually not forming bullish pattern as of now,

11:40 but consolidating with bearish bias.

11:42 So our bias remains on the downside

11:45 and I think soon we'll break the swing lows

11:48 and Nifty could correct 500 to 1,000 points from here.

11:52 That's the positional view

11:53 and same is true for Bank Nifty.

11:56 I think there also we can see correction of about 2 to 4%.

12:01 - Right, Aditya and Vinay, stay with us.

12:03 We have with us, Kavinder Singh, MD and CEO

12:05 of Mahindra Holidays now joining in.

12:07 Mr. Singh, good morning.

12:09 We'll talk about the earnings,

12:10 we'll talk about, of course, you stepping down as well

12:14 and the outlook for Mahindra Holidays,

12:16 but first up, it's been a solid quarter

12:19 for Mahindra Holidays.

12:20 Walk us through those numbers,

12:22 loop us in with what's happening

12:23 in terms of demand trends as well.

12:25 - Yeah, I think you rightly said it,

12:28 it's been a very strong quarter

12:30 and if I were to look at the third quarter,

12:33 typical numbers, we delivered the highest ever income,

12:38 EBITDA, PBT, all metrics are looking very good,

12:42 even operational metrics.

12:44 Our member additions were very high at 13% growth

12:48 on YY basis.

12:49 Our upgrades were up by about 16%.

12:52 Our occupancy was a very healthy 84%

12:55 despite the difficulties that we had

12:58 in the beginning of the quarter due to the second floods.

13:01 So when I look back also in terms of deferred revenue,

13:04 we have moved 68 crores into the deferred revenue,

13:07 that's the business, that's the accounting model

13:09 that we have in our business.

13:10 And if I were to look at our cash position,

13:12 very healthy at about 1300 crores.

13:15 So yes, a quarter three turned out to be a great quarter

13:19 and even on nine months level,

13:21 we are trending at the highest ever nine months numbers,

13:24 both on income and EBITDA and PBT.

13:27 - Right, Sikandar Singh, break this down for us.

13:30 You've seen the highest ever member additions.

13:34 What is that looking like?

13:36 Is that level and number sustainable going ahead

13:39 or it was a one-off that we saw?

13:41 - So if I were to look at our member additions trend,

13:46 a slightly longer term trend,

13:47 if you were to go back a year ago,

13:49 it was about 17,000 odd.

13:52 We are likely to close this year about 20,000,

13:54 roughly thereabouts.

13:56 And if you go even year prior, we were at about 12,000.

13:59 So if you look at our trajectory,

14:01 we are moving up at a very risk-based on member additions,

14:04 largely helped by the fact that the referral and digital

14:08 is showing significant momentum.

14:10 The referral and digital have been at about 57%

14:13 of our total sales, again, the highest ever.

14:16 So this is definitely based on the work that we have done

14:20 over the years, over the quarters,

14:22 and we are seeing the results of that.

14:24 And we believe with the consumption story of India,

14:27 with the affluent class growing to about 100 billion

14:31 as the Goldman Sachs report by in about a few years,

14:34 and our own target customer doubling,

14:37 the base doubling by 2030,

14:40 we are very confident that the member additions trajectory

14:43 will be maintained.

14:45 And if I were to look at also our inventory additions,

14:48 which have been very brisk,

14:50 we have added about 124 rooms

14:52 and we completed the expansion of our Goa resort,

14:56 which is by adding another 44 rooms

14:58 and made Goa resort, Assam resort as the biggest ever

15:01 in terms of number of rooms amongst any of our resorts.

15:04 So yes, there is momentum both on the member side

15:09 and also on the inventory side.

15:10 - Right.

15:12 Mr. Singh, you talked about expansion

15:14 and I wanna talk a little bit more about that.

15:16 You also said the cash balances are pretty healthy.

15:20 Expansion is expected to continue

15:23 while you've already added a whole bunch of new resorts.

15:26 Can we expect an uptick on that?

15:28 So would you continue to go big on expansion

15:30 for this calendar year as well?

15:33 And how many more properties could we anticipate

15:35 for calendar year 25?

15:36 - So this is a very relevant question

15:41 and a very good question.

15:42 And I would like to give it a very comprehensive answer here.

15:46 The good news for us is that we have stepped up

15:50 our inventory acceleration from 2020 onwards.

15:55 We have added about 17, 1800 rooms in about three years.

16:00 We are very confident of maintaining the momentum.

16:03 In fact, further accelerating it,

16:05 we have 800 crores in 50 crores or capex

16:08 going on for about 700 rooms.

16:11 This year itself in this calendar year,

16:13 which went by, which is 2023,

16:18 we have started two big projects,

16:21 one in Ganpati Phule with a capital expenditure plan

16:24 of about 250 crores.

16:26 We also started approximately 200 crores

16:29 capital expenditure plan in motion in Thiog in Himachal.

16:34 And as we speak, we completed the Goa Asanora expansion

16:39 with about 90 odd crores expansion that we did,

16:42 the money that we spent.

16:43 We have expansion plans for our Jaipur resort,

16:47 also at Puducherry resort,

16:48 which will kick in and around Q4 and Q1

16:51 respectively in this water.

16:53 So when I look at our momentum

16:56 in terms of inventory additions,

16:58 we have gained significant momentum.

17:00 I have gone on record that we have about 800 crores

17:04 of capex at play based on the pipeline

17:07 of the projects that we have.

17:09 This will easily get stepped up to 2000 crores.

17:11 And mind you, we have 1300 crores of cash on our books.

17:15 So we don't even need to borrow to grow our business

17:18 because the good part of our business model is

17:21 as we add members, we generate cash.

17:23 As we invest, we are able to add more members.

17:26 So really it's a model which is self-sustaining

17:29 and therefore more leverage is required

17:30 in the foreseeable future.

17:32 And I'm very confident that the stepping up of the capex

17:35 that we have already put in motion,

17:37 you will begin to see the momentum even more

17:40 in this calendar year and beyond.

17:43 - Mr. Kavindar Singh, we're short of time

17:47 but I can't not ask you about the management change.

17:51 I know there are a couple of sections of people

17:55 who are a little concerned.

17:57 After nine years at the top of affairs of Minds on Holidays,

18:00 you've decided to move on.

18:01 Anything on transition?

18:04 Anything that could soothe nerves

18:05 if there's anybody concerned with this change?

18:08 - Yeah, first of all, I would like to confirm

18:12 that I am looking at the next phase

18:17 of my professional journey.

18:19 It's been amazing, magical years,

18:21 nine and a half years at Minds on Holidays.

18:23 Minds on Holidays has become

18:25 a billion dollar market cap company.

18:28 When I joined the company,

18:29 it was just about $1 million.

18:31 We have now about 100 plus resorts.

18:33 We have 2.93 lakhs of members.

18:36 When I came in, we were about 1.5, 1.6 lakhs.

18:38 It's been an amazing journey,

18:40 obviously supported by the team

18:42 that we have at Minds on Holidays.

18:44 So we have a very strong and robust leadership team.

18:46 So in my view, there is no concern.

18:48 In fact, I personally feel I'm living on a high.

18:52 And obviously, one could have continued

18:55 and taken on to the next level

18:57 as I outlined the plans that we have made.

18:59 Having said that, there are times in life

19:02 when you look at whether there is something

19:04 that you would like to do something different.

19:06 I am industry agnostic in my career.

19:10 I have worked in non-hospitality sector,

19:12 as well as, as you know now, in hospitality.

19:14 So again, I'm looking at my next phase

19:16 of professional journey, which will be unveiled soon.

19:19 And the moment that comes through,

19:21 you will be the first one to know.

19:23 And I'm very happy that Manoj Bhatt,

19:25 my colleague of GEB, has taken over,

19:28 will take over rather on 17th May.

19:30 And we have depth of talent.

19:32 And I'm very happy for the support that I got

19:34 during my nine and a half years

19:36 from the entire Mahindra group,

19:38 Anisha, Mr. Anand Mahindra, and everyone else.

19:40 So it's been an amazing journey.

19:42 I mean, I'm super happy here.

19:44 I'm super happy to move on as well.

19:47 - Wow, that was nine years in a nutshell.

19:49 But Sussingh, good luck with your next stint.

19:53 I'm certain it will be as successful,

19:55 if not more successful than this one.

19:57 And we'd love to know more in a few months from you.

20:00 Until then, good luck and congratulations

20:02 on a good quarter for Mahindra Holidays.

20:04 On that note, we'll slip into a break.

20:06 We'll come back, continue our conversation

20:08 with Aditi and Vinay, and put the focus back

20:10 on the FMO space.

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22:37 - Welcome back to the FNO Show.

22:49 Aditi and Vinay, sorry, we're in the thick

22:51 of the earnings season, so we've got a bunch

22:53 of managements to also cover.

22:55 But Aditi, I'll come to you, your top trades this morning.

22:59 - So my top trades are bearish trades today.

23:05 And we are looking to short Titan,

23:08 which had been in a stellar uptrend,

23:10 but that uptrend has been broken now,

23:12 as the chart suggests.

23:14 So over there, we must sell 3,000,

23:17 we can sell 3,700 call, which is trading at 52.

23:22 Stop loss must be 100 and target is zero.

23:25 And second one, Indigo, over there also,

23:28 we find stocks struggling to cross resistance level.

23:32 So over here, 3,400 call can be shorted at 43,

23:37 stop loss 79 and target zero.

23:40 So both the stocks have a neutral to bearish trend.

23:43 - So that's a short call coming in from Aditi.

23:45 Vinay, what about you?

23:46 What are your top recommendations today on the show?

23:49 - So I would be recommending two trading long

23:52 recommendations.

23:53 First would be from the PSU space,

23:55 which is NDPC trading at its all time high.

23:57 So despite the, not despite,

23:59 but in fact, after the week resulted,

24:02 supply got absorbed and stock continued its uptrend.

24:07 So looking at the overall trend,

24:09 the kind of concentration breakout we have seen on the chart,

24:11 I think this PSU rally may continue

24:13 to give good returns for the traders.

24:15 So NDPC February future one can go long at 336,

24:19 330 should be the trading stop loss on the upside,

24:21 344 is a target.

24:23 The second pick is from the auto space.

24:25 We have seen a fresh breakout in auto index on Friday,

24:29 and I see some strength coming back in auto

24:32 and momentum coming back in auto space.

24:33 So Exide industry looks good from the space.

24:36 So Exide industry February future one can go long

24:38 with at 347 with a stop loss of 342.

24:42 And on the upside, I'm expecting a target of 357.

24:45 So basically these two trades can be taken

24:47 with a strict stop loss, which I have mentioned.

24:49 - Right, Vinay, you didn't mention Tata Motors

24:51 while you talked about the auto pack.

24:53 It's been one of the best performing counters of 23.

24:56 It's been a very strong performer all through Jan.

24:59 This morning as well, reaction numbers a 7% higher.

25:02 At these levels, any trade could be initiated?

25:05 - So it's more of a news driven stock,

25:08 but the fact is that the stock is trading at its all time.

25:12 It is leading from the front and from the entire space,

25:15 it has been an out performer.

25:16 So better not to anticipate any top

25:19 on this particular stock, better to be with a trend.

25:21 And I can see recently the stock has broken out about 900,

25:26 which was the previous swing high.

25:28 So now previous swing high would act as a support.

25:31 So I would recommend that those who are holding

25:33 the long position in the Tata Motors,

25:35 which is trading at its all time high,

25:37 better to keep it with a trailing stop loss.

25:39 The right now the stop loss comes at 900

25:41 and it's top continues to go like this.

25:44 I think a trader should keep on the stop loss

25:47 from trailing basis and ultimately can ride this rally.

25:50 So better not to anticipate any top

25:52 and keep holding a long position

25:55 with a trailing stop loss of 900 as of now.

25:58 - Right, Aditya, any one PSU stock

26:01 that you'd go long on for the Feb series?

26:04 - I think we wouldn't go long on any PSU counter as of now.

26:09 We are actually bearish on all the PSU counters.

26:13 I think the rally is pretty overextended

26:15 and money could be made by shorting these stocks

26:18 and market is also overheated.

26:20 So I think the scope for five to 10% correction

26:24 in PSU counters.

26:25 So I think money is on the short side.

26:27 As it's, that's my view.

26:30 - Right, thank you, Aditya.

26:32 Thank you, Vinay.

26:32 It was great having both of you on the show.

26:34 And sorry, we couldn't spend as much time

26:35 as we'd have liked with both of you on back

26:37 of covering a couple of earnings as well.

26:40 With that, it's a wrap on the F&O Show.

26:42 Stay tuned with more on the other side.

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Eyes On This Week's Nifty Bank Expiry | The F&O Show | NDTV Profit

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