Eyes On This Week's Nifty Bank Expiry | The F&O Show | NDTV Profit
- #NCGTC issues forensic audit on #BandhanBank
- Reviewing MahindraHolidays' Q3 results
Take stock of the derivative markets with Samina Nalwala on 'The F&O Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Madhavan Menon, Executive Chairman, Thomas Cook India
Tribhuwan Adhikari, MD & CEO, LIC Housing Finance
Vivek Lohia ,MD, Jupiter Wagons
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- Reviewing MahindraHolidays' Q3 results
Take stock of the derivative markets with Samina Nalwala on 'The F&O Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Madhavan Menon, Executive Chairman, Thomas Cook India
Tribhuwan Adhikari, MD & CEO, LIC Housing Finance
Vivek Lohia ,MD, Jupiter Wagons
_______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/
#ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket
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Transcript
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01:20 - Markets trade flat with a positive bias.
01:26 Sensex trades about 72,100,
01:29 while the Nifty's choppy to trade at 21,800.
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01:36 Data Motors jumps over 7%.
01:39 On back of strong earnings,
01:41 the company's revenue witnessed a 25% uptick
01:44 while margins expanded substantially.
01:46 And Paytm concerns continue as the stock hits lower circuit
01:51 for the third straight session.
01:53 The company wiped out 20,485 rupees of market cap so far.
01:58 And State Bank of India reported
02:01 their third quarter numbers on Saturday.
02:03 The bank reported a 35% decline in their profit
02:06 while showing an improvement on the NPA front.
02:09 The National Credit Guarantee Trust Company
02:13 has issued a forcenic audit on Bandhan Bank.
02:16 That's an NDTV profit exclusive,
02:18 and we'll get you more details on the show.
02:20 (upbeat music)
02:36 - Well, those are the top headlines
02:37 we are tracking at 10.30 a.m.
02:39 The markets, remember, looking a little lukewarm
02:42 after being very, very volatile
02:44 with a very clear positive bias on Friday.
02:46 Well, it was topsy-turvy,
02:48 but this morning is all about earnings
02:49 and a reaction to that.
02:51 A quick check on how the index is trading in early trade.
02:54 We did see a flat to slightly positive opening,
02:58 and that's exactly what's happening on the index.
03:00 The Nifty trading with a gain of 17 points,
03:02 21,872 is what it trades at.
03:05 The breadth of the market, though,
03:07 is not looking too good.
03:08 I mean, it is actually looking pretty good.
03:10 A bias on the upside, but big cuts coming in
03:13 on back of earnings in a couple of stocks
03:14 that we'll highlight for you.
03:16 On the gaining side, you have Tata Motors
03:19 that is stealing the show.
03:21 Strong set of earnings being posted.
03:22 Brokerages seem optimistic,
03:24 and it seems like the road ahead looks very, very promising.
03:28 Fourth quarter expected to be seasonally a better quarter
03:31 than what the company has already posted.
03:33 Remember, Tata Motors has been
03:34 the best performing counter of 2023,
03:36 and it's no different at the start of 2024.
03:39 Recently overtook the market gap of Maruti Suzuki,
03:42 and the outperformance on the counter continues
03:45 with a 7% up move in trade this morning.
03:48 OMCs continue to look good.
03:50 BPCL again pulling out 4.5% gains in trade this morning.
03:55 It was one of the top performing counters on Friday,
03:57 and it's no different this morning either.
04:00 PSUs are the focus.
04:01 Coal India is up 3.5%.
04:03 ONGC is also looking good.
04:05 So, OMCs as a pack are having quite a field day
04:08 in trade this morning.
04:09 Apart from that, you've got M&M, NTPC, Adani Ports,
04:13 Adani Group Companies on the nifty 50,
04:16 all trading with a clear positive bias.
04:18 IT not doing too badly either.
04:20 Pharma and Auto also having a positive session.
04:24 On the sell side, weak set of numbers on UPL,
04:26 and the stock gets a thumbs down,
04:28 7.5% cut on UPL this morning.
04:30 Apart from that, you've got Bharati Airtel, HDFC Bank,
04:33 that's once again trading flat with a negative bias.
04:36 Ultratech Cement, Titan Company.
04:38 So, banks still continue to be absent in today's trade.
04:42 Remember, leadership of Bank Nifty is going to be critical
04:45 for the nifty's next leg of rally.
04:48 And across the broader market space,
04:50 you've got lots of other movers and shakers.
04:52 Paytm continues to see a 10% cut in trade this morning.
04:55 Bank of India is seeing some weakness.
04:58 You've got EIL, Devyani International, Rail Vikas,
05:02 IRFC, all seeing cuts of 3% to 4% each.
05:06 On the gaining side,
05:07 Yuco Bank is up quite sharply with a 10% up move.
05:11 So, PSUs across the board, like I said,
05:13 are looking pretty good in the sun.
05:15 IOP also trading with a gain of 8.5% to 9%.
05:19 Central Bank of India, IDPI, IOC, to name a few,
05:23 are having a pretty good session.
05:24 So, that's pretty much the picture.
05:26 The Wix Index has also declined a little bit in trades.
05:29 That could be a little more comfort
05:30 coming in for the straight.
05:31 The long-shot ratio has actually increased
05:34 from 22% to 32.5% as FBIs turned net buyers on Friday,
05:39 cutting out short positions
05:40 and building fresh long positions.
05:42 So, those are a few factors that may potentially
05:44 contribute to the next up move for the markets.
05:46 But moving on from the markets to an NDTV profit exclusive,
05:50 the National Credit Guarantee Trust Company
05:53 has issued a forecenic audit on Bandhan Bank.
05:56 Pragati Oberoi joins in with more details on this.
05:58 Pragati, what are your sources telling you
06:00 Bandhan Bank in focus this morning?
06:02 Yes, Amina, you're absolutely right.
06:03 Bandhan Bank is on our focus
06:04 because the Bandhan Bank's credit guarantee portfolio,
06:08 which is worth 23,300 crore rupees,
06:11 is under the forensic audit.
06:13 Now, according to an internal document
06:15 circulated by the trust,
06:16 we know that Bandhan Bank's entire credit guarantee portfolio
06:20 is under this forensic audit.
06:22 The catch word here is forensic
06:24 because when an organization like NCGTC
06:26 conducts such an audit,
06:28 it usually does when there are suspicions of malice,
06:30 like evergreening of loans
06:31 or creation of fictitious accounts.
06:34 Now, on 9th Jan,
06:35 that's where the context of this entire story lies,
06:38 on 9th Jan, Bandhan Bank told the exchanges
06:40 that NCGTC was conducting a detailed audit
06:44 of just the CGMFU portfolio for FY21 specifically,
06:48 for the second tranche of the CGFMU claim.
06:51 But as we reviewed the document,
06:53 we got to know that the audit or the forensic audit
06:56 is not just for this one claim or this one tranche.
06:59 The review includes the entire portfolio
07:02 and this has CGFMU lending worth 20,800 crore rupees
07:06 to 29 lakh borrowers
07:08 and 2,500 crore rupees ECLGS loan to 22 lakh entities.
07:13 And the periods under review are also bifurcated
07:16 and not exactly as per what the bank told exchanges.
07:20 The periods under review are CGFMU for FY21
07:23 for 5.5 lakh borrowers when they became NPAs
07:26 and ECLGS from May 2020 to June 30,
07:29 where 7.55 lakh borrowers were classified as NPAs.
07:34 Another interesting bit here is that,
07:36 our sources told us that NCGTC initially conducted
07:39 a preliminary audit in late 2023,
07:42 but they had their concerns
07:43 and this is why they initiated the entire forensic audit.
07:46 While both the portfolios in their entirety
07:49 are under this forensic audit,
07:51 we know that the focus remains of 4.9 lakh borrowers
07:54 which have been classified as NPAs.
07:56 That's what sources are telling us
07:58 because they're trying to exactly identify
08:00 that who are these 4.9 lakh borrowers
08:03 who have not repaid these amounts.
08:05 That's the NDTV profit exclusive for you.
08:06 We'll bring you more updates as and when we have them.
08:09 - Thank you for that Prakriti.
08:13 That is the big story,
08:14 the stock under pressure down 2.5% as we see it.
08:18 We're now joined by Aditya Arora,
08:20 who will be joining us to take us through his,
08:22 of course, topics and Vinay Rajani.
08:24 Vinay, good morning.
08:25 Thanks and Aditya, thanks for joining us.
08:27 Vinay, I'll start with you first.
08:29 What are you making on the Nifty?
08:30 What sort of a trade would you be recommending?
08:33 We did make an intraday life high on Friday.
08:36 Also saw the long shot ratios improve from 22 to 32.5%
08:40 with FIs cutting short positions
08:43 and initiating fresh longs.
08:45 Would you go long on the index this morning
08:48 since there is an opportunity of sorts?
08:50 - Yeah, good morning and thanks for having me on the show.
08:53 So we saw a high of 22,126 on Friday
08:57 and we saw a large profit booking on that day only
09:01 and closed on a weaker note,
09:02 especially the bank Nifty,
09:03 the private sector banks were not supporting
09:05 and because of that, index did not close
09:08 on a stronger wicket, especially the bank Nifty.
09:11 But if you were to look at the overall trend,
09:12 it is still positive.
09:13 It is likely that we may oscillate
09:15 between 21,800 to 22,000.
09:18 So 21,800 is a technical support
09:21 and 22,000 is a strike price
09:24 where we have been witnessing some call writing happening.
09:27 So unless we see a decisive close about 22,000,
09:30 Nifty may remain into consolidation zone.
09:32 So I don't see any momentum coming back in the market
09:35 as of now, stock specific action may continue
09:38 while benchmark indices will remain in the range.
09:40 So broader range for next couple of session,
09:42 I believe 21,800 to 22,000 for the Nifty
09:46 with the overall bias on the positive side
09:48 only because the primary trend has been bullish
09:50 and Nifty hit all day just on a Friday.
09:53 So there is no negative sign,
09:56 but the kind of results season
09:58 we are passing through the results season,
10:00 so many results are going to affect
10:02 the overall benchmark indices.
10:04 So I would suggest that better to take a buy on dips
10:07 kind of trading in the Nifty.
10:10 So if it comes down to 21,800,
10:12 there could be a possibility of going long.
10:15 So at that point,
10:16 you can keep a stop loss of 100 points
10:17 and aim for the target of 22,000.
10:20 So buy on dips is a strategy for Nifty
10:22 and as far as Bank Nifty is concerned,
10:23 I would rather wait
10:24 because the relative setup is looking weak
10:26 and it is not participating.
10:28 So on the upside 46,500 is a strong resistance.
10:32 So unless it closes above that,
10:34 I would wait for rather in Bank Nifty.
10:36 So it is looking weak.
10:37 So better to wait for Nifty to come down at 21,800
10:40 and take a long with a stop loss of 21,700.
10:44 - Right, wait for the Nifty to come down to 21,800
10:47 before initiating fresh longs.
10:49 Aditya, how do you feel about the index?
10:51 Would you consider going long
10:53 or do you expect the markets remain sideways
10:55 at least for the next few days?
10:58 - Very good morning.
10:59 I think as per our system,
11:01 which follows a Bollinger band and range trading setup.
11:05 So as per that, we have hit the upper range of the channel
11:09 and at this point, markets are taking resistance
11:11 from the resistance point wherein we saw a steep correction
11:16 in Nifty on Friday
11:18 and today Bank Nifty is also showing some sluggishness.
11:22 So we think the bias is on the downside
11:24 and if we look at the large caps like L&T,
11:29 which came with poor results,
11:30 SBI also came with poor results
11:33 and similarly we saw a good dent in HDFC Bank also,
11:36 which is actually not forming bullish pattern as of now,
11:40 but consolidating with bearish bias.
11:42 So our bias remains on the downside
11:45 and I think soon we'll break the swing lows
11:48 and Nifty could correct 500 to 1,000 points from here.
11:52 That's the positional view
11:53 and same is true for Bank Nifty.
11:56 I think there also we can see correction of about 2 to 4%.
12:01 - Right, Aditya and Vinay, stay with us.
12:03 We have with us, Kavinder Singh, MD and CEO
12:05 of Mahindra Holidays now joining in.
12:07 Mr. Singh, good morning.
12:09 We'll talk about the earnings,
12:10 we'll talk about, of course, you stepping down as well
12:14 and the outlook for Mahindra Holidays,
12:16 but first up, it's been a solid quarter
12:19 for Mahindra Holidays.
12:20 Walk us through those numbers,
12:22 loop us in with what's happening
12:23 in terms of demand trends as well.
12:25 - Yeah, I think you rightly said it,
12:28 it's been a very strong quarter
12:30 and if I were to look at the third quarter,
12:33 typical numbers, we delivered the highest ever income,
12:38 EBITDA, PBT, all metrics are looking very good,
12:42 even operational metrics.
12:44 Our member additions were very high at 13% growth
12:48 on YY basis.
12:49 Our upgrades were up by about 16%.
12:52 Our occupancy was a very healthy 84%
12:55 despite the difficulties that we had
12:58 in the beginning of the quarter due to the second floods.
13:01 So when I look back also in terms of deferred revenue,
13:04 we have moved 68 crores into the deferred revenue,
13:07 that's the business, that's the accounting model
13:09 that we have in our business.
13:10 And if I were to look at our cash position,
13:12 very healthy at about 1300 crores.
13:15 So yes, a quarter three turned out to be a great quarter
13:19 and even on nine months level,
13:21 we are trending at the highest ever nine months numbers,
13:24 both on income and EBITDA and PBT.
13:27 - Right, Sikandar Singh, break this down for us.
13:30 You've seen the highest ever member additions.
13:34 What is that looking like?
13:36 Is that level and number sustainable going ahead
13:39 or it was a one-off that we saw?
13:41 - So if I were to look at our member additions trend,
13:46 a slightly longer term trend,
13:47 if you were to go back a year ago,
13:49 it was about 17,000 odd.
13:52 We are likely to close this year about 20,000,
13:54 roughly thereabouts.
13:56 And if you go even year prior, we were at about 12,000.
13:59 So if you look at our trajectory,
14:01 we are moving up at a very risk-based on member additions,
14:04 largely helped by the fact that the referral and digital
14:08 is showing significant momentum.
14:10 The referral and digital have been at about 57%
14:13 of our total sales, again, the highest ever.
14:16 So this is definitely based on the work that we have done
14:20 over the years, over the quarters,
14:22 and we are seeing the results of that.
14:24 And we believe with the consumption story of India,
14:27 with the affluent class growing to about 100 billion
14:31 as the Goldman Sachs report by in about a few years,
14:34 and our own target customer doubling,
14:37 the base doubling by 2030,
14:40 we are very confident that the member additions trajectory
14:43 will be maintained.
14:45 And if I were to look at also our inventory additions,
14:48 which have been very brisk,
14:50 we have added about 124 rooms
14:52 and we completed the expansion of our Goa resort,
14:56 which is by adding another 44 rooms
14:58 and made Goa resort, Assam resort as the biggest ever
15:01 in terms of number of rooms amongst any of our resorts.
15:04 So yes, there is momentum both on the member side
15:09 and also on the inventory side.
15:10 - Right.
15:12 Mr. Singh, you talked about expansion
15:14 and I wanna talk a little bit more about that.
15:16 You also said the cash balances are pretty healthy.
15:20 Expansion is expected to continue
15:23 while you've already added a whole bunch of new resorts.
15:26 Can we expect an uptick on that?
15:28 So would you continue to go big on expansion
15:30 for this calendar year as well?
15:33 And how many more properties could we anticipate
15:35 for calendar year 25?
15:36 - So this is a very relevant question
15:41 and a very good question.
15:42 And I would like to give it a very comprehensive answer here.
15:46 The good news for us is that we have stepped up
15:50 our inventory acceleration from 2020 onwards.
15:55 We have added about 17, 1800 rooms in about three years.
16:00 We are very confident of maintaining the momentum.
16:03 In fact, further accelerating it,
16:05 we have 800 crores in 50 crores or capex
16:08 going on for about 700 rooms.
16:11 This year itself in this calendar year,
16:13 which went by, which is 2023,
16:18 we have started two big projects,
16:21 one in Ganpati Phule with a capital expenditure plan
16:24 of about 250 crores.
16:26 We also started approximately 200 crores
16:29 capital expenditure plan in motion in Thiog in Himachal.
16:34 And as we speak, we completed the Goa Asanora expansion
16:39 with about 90 odd crores expansion that we did,
16:42 the money that we spent.
16:43 We have expansion plans for our Jaipur resort,
16:47 also at Puducherry resort,
16:48 which will kick in and around Q4 and Q1
16:51 respectively in this water.
16:53 So when I look at our momentum
16:56 in terms of inventory additions,
16:58 we have gained significant momentum.
17:00 I have gone on record that we have about 800 crores
17:04 of capex at play based on the pipeline
17:07 of the projects that we have.
17:09 This will easily get stepped up to 2000 crores.
17:11 And mind you, we have 1300 crores of cash on our books.
17:15 So we don't even need to borrow to grow our business
17:18 because the good part of our business model is
17:21 as we add members, we generate cash.
17:23 As we invest, we are able to add more members.
17:26 So really it's a model which is self-sustaining
17:29 and therefore more leverage is required
17:30 in the foreseeable future.
17:32 And I'm very confident that the stepping up of the capex
17:35 that we have already put in motion,
17:37 you will begin to see the momentum even more
17:40 in this calendar year and beyond.
17:43 - Mr. Kavindar Singh, we're short of time
17:47 but I can't not ask you about the management change.
17:51 I know there are a couple of sections of people
17:55 who are a little concerned.
17:57 After nine years at the top of affairs of Minds on Holidays,
18:00 you've decided to move on.
18:01 Anything on transition?
18:04 Anything that could soothe nerves
18:05 if there's anybody concerned with this change?
18:08 - Yeah, first of all, I would like to confirm
18:12 that I am looking at the next phase
18:17 of my professional journey.
18:19 It's been amazing, magical years,
18:21 nine and a half years at Minds on Holidays.
18:23 Minds on Holidays has become
18:25 a billion dollar market cap company.
18:28 When I joined the company,
18:29 it was just about $1 million.
18:31 We have now about 100 plus resorts.
18:33 We have 2.93 lakhs of members.
18:36 When I came in, we were about 1.5, 1.6 lakhs.
18:38 It's been an amazing journey,
18:40 obviously supported by the team
18:42 that we have at Minds on Holidays.
18:44 So we have a very strong and robust leadership team.
18:46 So in my view, there is no concern.
18:48 In fact, I personally feel I'm living on a high.
18:52 And obviously, one could have continued
18:55 and taken on to the next level
18:57 as I outlined the plans that we have made.
18:59 Having said that, there are times in life
19:02 when you look at whether there is something
19:04 that you would like to do something different.
19:06 I am industry agnostic in my career.
19:10 I have worked in non-hospitality sector,
19:12 as well as, as you know now, in hospitality.
19:14 So again, I'm looking at my next phase
19:16 of professional journey, which will be unveiled soon.
19:19 And the moment that comes through,
19:21 you will be the first one to know.
19:23 And I'm very happy that Manoj Bhatt,
19:25 my colleague of GEB, has taken over,
19:28 will take over rather on 17th May.
19:30 And we have depth of talent.
19:32 And I'm very happy for the support that I got
19:34 during my nine and a half years
19:36 from the entire Mahindra group,
19:38 Anisha, Mr. Anand Mahindra, and everyone else.
19:40 So it's been an amazing journey.
19:42 I mean, I'm super happy here.
19:44 I'm super happy to move on as well.
19:47 - Wow, that was nine years in a nutshell.
19:49 But Sussingh, good luck with your next stint.
19:53 I'm certain it will be as successful,
19:55 if not more successful than this one.
19:57 And we'd love to know more in a few months from you.
20:00 Until then, good luck and congratulations
20:02 on a good quarter for Mahindra Holidays.
20:04 On that note, we'll slip into a break.
20:06 We'll come back, continue our conversation
20:08 with Aditi and Vinay, and put the focus back
20:10 on the FMO space.
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22:37 - Welcome back to the FNO Show.
22:49 Aditi and Vinay, sorry, we're in the thick
22:51 of the earnings season, so we've got a bunch
22:53 of managements to also cover.
22:55 But Aditi, I'll come to you, your top trades this morning.
22:59 - So my top trades are bearish trades today.
23:05 And we are looking to short Titan,
23:08 which had been in a stellar uptrend,
23:10 but that uptrend has been broken now,
23:12 as the chart suggests.
23:14 So over there, we must sell 3,000,
23:17 we can sell 3,700 call, which is trading at 52.
23:22 Stop loss must be 100 and target is zero.
23:25 And second one, Indigo, over there also,
23:28 we find stocks struggling to cross resistance level.
23:32 So over here, 3,400 call can be shorted at 43,
23:37 stop loss 79 and target zero.
23:40 So both the stocks have a neutral to bearish trend.
23:43 - So that's a short call coming in from Aditi.
23:45 Vinay, what about you?
23:46 What are your top recommendations today on the show?
23:49 - So I would be recommending two trading long
23:52 recommendations.
23:53 First would be from the PSU space,
23:55 which is NDPC trading at its all time high.
23:57 So despite the, not despite,
23:59 but in fact, after the week resulted,
24:02 supply got absorbed and stock continued its uptrend.
24:07 So looking at the overall trend,
24:09 the kind of concentration breakout we have seen on the chart,
24:11 I think this PSU rally may continue
24:13 to give good returns for the traders.
24:15 So NDPC February future one can go long at 336,
24:19 330 should be the trading stop loss on the upside,
24:21 344 is a target.
24:23 The second pick is from the auto space.
24:25 We have seen a fresh breakout in auto index on Friday,
24:29 and I see some strength coming back in auto
24:32 and momentum coming back in auto space.
24:33 So Exide industry looks good from the space.
24:36 So Exide industry February future one can go long
24:38 with at 347 with a stop loss of 342.
24:42 And on the upside, I'm expecting a target of 357.
24:45 So basically these two trades can be taken
24:47 with a strict stop loss, which I have mentioned.
24:49 - Right, Vinay, you didn't mention Tata Motors
24:51 while you talked about the auto pack.
24:53 It's been one of the best performing counters of 23.
24:56 It's been a very strong performer all through Jan.
24:59 This morning as well, reaction numbers a 7% higher.
25:02 At these levels, any trade could be initiated?
25:05 - So it's more of a news driven stock,
25:08 but the fact is that the stock is trading at its all time.
25:12 It is leading from the front and from the entire space,
25:15 it has been an out performer.
25:16 So better not to anticipate any top
25:19 on this particular stock, better to be with a trend.
25:21 And I can see recently the stock has broken out about 900,
25:26 which was the previous swing high.
25:28 So now previous swing high would act as a support.
25:31 So I would recommend that those who are holding
25:33 the long position in the Tata Motors,
25:35 which is trading at its all time high,
25:37 better to keep it with a trailing stop loss.
25:39 The right now the stop loss comes at 900
25:41 and it's top continues to go like this.
25:44 I think a trader should keep on the stop loss
25:47 from trailing basis and ultimately can ride this rally.
25:50 So better not to anticipate any top
25:52 and keep holding a long position
25:55 with a trailing stop loss of 900 as of now.
25:58 - Right, Aditya, any one PSU stock
26:01 that you'd go long on for the Feb series?
26:04 - I think we wouldn't go long on any PSU counter as of now.
26:09 We are actually bearish on all the PSU counters.
26:13 I think the rally is pretty overextended
26:15 and money could be made by shorting these stocks
26:18 and market is also overheated.
26:20 So I think the scope for five to 10% correction
26:24 in PSU counters.
26:25 So I think money is on the short side.
26:27 As it's, that's my view.
26:30 - Right, thank you, Aditya.
26:32 Thank you, Vinay.
26:32 It was great having both of you on the show.
26:34 And sorry, we couldn't spend as much time
26:35 as we'd have liked with both of you on back
26:37 of covering a couple of earnings as well.
26:40 With that, it's a wrap on the F&O Show.
26:42 Stay tuned with more on the other side.
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