#Nifty, #Sensex up as #TataMotors, #CoalIndia, #SunPharma lead; oil & gas stocks gain.
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
00:00 India market close and we're looking at a range bound tepid kind of day.
00:05 Some spots of action in the broader indices and certain stocks and sectors,
00:10 but overall, not too much excitement on the front lines.
00:14 The Sensex and the Nifty pretty much flat.
00:16 Let's pull up the heat map and take a look at what's firing.
00:19 And today's, you know, there's the tale of two stories.
00:22 Today's a tale of two stocks on either end of the indices.
00:25 UPL firmly set 10 percent lower, a disastrous
00:30 quarterly result for UPL.
00:33 And I'm not even saying that of my own accord.
00:35 Experts we've been speaking to all day have termed their results as disastrous.
00:39 So you're seeing UPL there in the pain.
00:41 Tata Motors now displaced ever so slightly on top of the rung of the Nifty.
00:46 But Tata Motors again, zooming thanks to great quarterly numbers up about five
00:51 and a half percent, as is Coal India now.
00:55 If you look at the broad sort of
00:57 trend that we're seeing, Power Grid, of course, 2.8 percent up.
01:01 But it's not just a Power Grid story, as we'll tell you.
01:03 These are certain allocations that have been made in the interim budget.
01:07 And Power Grid also boost up because of it.
01:10 BPCL doing well as well.
01:12 But Cipla, Sun Pharma, you're seeing a bit of that defensive play coming in.
01:17 Bharti in the red ahead of its numbers.
01:20 Let's quickly pull up advanced decline
01:22 ratio to tell you what kind of a day we have seen overall.
01:25 And there has been a bit of hesitation at the start of the week is how I would
01:31 describe it. You started fairly strong, but tapering off.
01:34 And now as we come to close here,
01:37 you are maybe going into a bit of negative territory.
01:40 The Bank Nifty.
01:41 Let's quickly pull up the Bank Nifty as well to see what's happening there.
01:44 Last I checked, it had slipped into the red.
01:46 Yes, the Bank Nifty feeling a bit of pain.
01:49 So you're seeing the broader markets muted, but specific sectors and stocks
01:54 definitely seeing action one way or the other.
01:57 Let's pull up first Paytm on our AR.
02:00 Let's pull up Paytm and let's pull up Geo Financial Services.
02:03 Again, that's a tale of two counters as per news flow.
02:07 Paytm, of course, still feeling the heat,
02:09 bludgeoning down and quick programming alert.
02:12 We're doing a special show later on at 3.30 where we're going to be focusing
02:17 on what went wrong with Paytm. So that's again at Socket.
02:21 Lost what about 43, nearly 45 percent of its value in just three trading sessions.
02:27 Geo Financial Services, on the other hand,
02:29 firing up after reports that it may acquire some of Paytm's wallet business.
02:36 Now, how that will happen is that happening is not known.
02:39 But either way, that's rock up 14 percent in trade.
02:43 I was talking about what was happening with Power Grid.
02:45 That same story you will see play out with an SJVN and NHPC.
02:50 Specific allocations have been made for these companies.
02:54 Power Grid gets the bulk of them,
02:56 but significant numbers for SJVN and NHPC as well.
03:00 So you're seeing those stocks doing well in trade today.
03:04 So stock specific action is what you could see.
03:07 But overall, I would say a muted kind of start.
03:11 Neeraj, would you say this is a hesitant market at this point?
03:15 Well, you could classify that maybe just
03:17 the two perfect terms that you use, hesitant, skittish at the higher levels.
03:23 And that is something that we've seen in the last few days.
03:25 But specific pockets are doing well.
03:27 So PSUs by and large, PSU banks in particular,
03:29 ECO Bank, IOB, just look at the kind of gains.
03:32 But just, you know, if you sort the BSE 500 index for gainers,
03:38 nine of the top 10 are PSU names.
03:41 The statistic was 15 of the top 18 in the morning were PSU names.
03:45 And that's largely remaining the same.
03:47 So PSU banks and other PSU institutions are doing very well.
03:50 LIC, in fact, is up about 6 percent.
03:53 And that is quite a stellar statistic as well.
03:56 So keep that
03:58 stock in mind, too.
04:00 And in between, I'm just trying to see what else non-PSUs have done well.
04:05 There's some strength in Mahindra Life, up about 7 percent.
04:07 There's strength in Phoenix Mills, 2627.
04:11 Up about 6.5 percent.
04:12 So that's doing OK.
04:14 Mahindra Holidays and Resorts has had a good move.
04:16 So that stock is to be kept in mind.
04:18 Mind you, this might be a bit of a delayed reaction to the Mahindra split,
04:23 a Mahindra rejig wherein they've changed heads.
04:27 They've gotten newer people and done a whole top tech rejig on which
04:31 Anisha spoke to us on Friday's session.
04:34 So maybe a bit of a delayed reaction to what's happening to Mahindra
04:37 Life Spaces or Mahindra Resorts.
04:40 So keep an eye out for these names as well.
04:42 Some gains for maybe Pharma.
04:44 The stock of the day to Maimando, it could either be Tata Motors or be UPL.
04:49 We'll get in Hemant Kapadhanjay's moments from now to talk about the charts.
04:52 In the second segment, we'll get in Gautam Duggar of Motilal Oswal as well.
04:56 But we'll just get in Hemant and talk about the charts in a moment from now.
05:00 But just mark UPL and what UPL is doing in the session today,
05:05 down about 9 percent the last time that I had seen.
05:08 And we will talk about it during the course of the day as well.
05:11 10 percent now for United Phosphorus.
05:14 Hemant Kapadhyay, Senior VP Institutional Equity at KR Troxy Securities.
05:17 Johnson's right now on the show.
05:19 Hemant, good having you.
05:20 Thanks for joining in.
05:22 Is there a trade on the index, Hemant, or is the index looking skittish?
05:26 And maybe there are better trades in specific stocks or specific indices?
05:30 Very good afternoon to you Neera. Thank you for having me.
05:32 I think you answered your question yourself.
05:35 The Nifty is looking skittish.
05:37 If I were to go slightly intraday, Neeraj,
05:42 it formed a small rounding top, which is basically a bearish pattern.
05:45 And on the early charts,
05:47 the MSAD, Stochastic and the RSI have signaled a crossover sell.
05:51 Simply put, I'm not sure one could encourage a one day trade.
05:54 But if you were to look at it for a day or two,
05:57 I think it looks skittish.
06:01 Avoid it.
06:01 There is some weakness coming in in the Nifty as well as the Bank Nifty.
06:05 And frankly speaking, in a market like this, shorting hasn't exactly worked.
06:09 So I would say stay away.
06:11 There is some weakness in the very near term.
06:14 And I think that gets to be slightly more deep.
06:16 People can look to buy goods.
06:18 OK.
06:19 Hemant, PSU banks and today too, they are making a mark and a presence felt.
06:25 But PSU is by and large, I mean, Power, PSU, NHPC, etc.
06:28 also doing well. Anything that stands out for you there?
06:34 Well, frankly speaking, everything has shot through the roof, Neeraj.
06:38 I thought some of the PSU banks were looking promising.
06:41 But I think after today's move,
06:43 whether it's Bank of Maharashtra, Central Bank, some stocks,
06:46 which I currently don't have, but have traded positively.
06:51 I don't know, I would say maybe something like
06:53 it's in the upper circuit now, Neeraj, but the New India Assurance is something
06:59 which looks promising because it's just broken out.
07:02 OK, it's off the circuit now.
07:04 We've had a
07:06 roughly 8-week rounding bottom on the weekly chart.
07:11 So I think New India looks relatively
07:13 technically underpriced looking at the way everything else is moving.
07:16 So I would say, yes,
07:18 New India Assurance is something I would pick
07:21 on a smaller decline because I believe we are at 260 now.
07:24 We are heading towards 290 and 320, but this is more of a 6-8 call.
07:29 But yeah, coming back to main question, Neeraj,
07:31 what's your take on the stock market?
07:33 I mean, I think the stock market is
07:34 still in a very good position, but there's still a lot of potential
07:37 to be made in terms of one stock, which is still, I believe, somewhere cheaper.
07:42 Hi, Hemain, good afternoon.
07:44 Just quickly want to mark VRL before I come to your picks for this afternoon.
07:48 VRL logistics numbers are looking poor, to say the least.
07:52 In the face of it, net profits down about 72 percent.
07:54 That stock responding quite sharply.
07:57 If you look at that chart, following off a cliff as those numbers have come in.
08:00 I'm wondering if you track VRL at all, Hemain, any call there?
08:03 And, you know, your top trades this afternoon.
08:07 OK, I don't track VRL much,
08:10 but looked at it while you were talking about it.
08:13 10 weeks of a sideways move,
08:15 range is 800 on the upside, 630 on the downside.
08:18 Negative bias has taken support on the 55-week exponential moving average.
08:24 No trade, but we're on the cusp of a breakdown.
08:29 There seems to be a distribution pattern happening, Tathamanna.
08:32 But yes, for this to fructify,
08:34 we would need a close above 632 on the weekly chart.
08:37 And we are on the first day of the week.
08:39 So, no, I would safely say no trade.
08:42 In terms of calls, I will stick to what I like.
08:46 I think Adani Enterprise had given a call last week.
08:49 Had moved some 200 bucks from there. Still looks good.
08:53 So it's a buy once again,
08:54 because I feel the stock is going to go to 4000 plus after some time.
08:58 But yeah, it's a trading call.
08:59 So I have a shorter call, shorter target.
09:02 But 3200 entry, 3100 stop loss, 3400 target.
09:06 Once again, if you have a slightly longer term view,
09:09 stop loss at 2800, target of 4000 plus.
09:12 Looks great. Cusp of a breakout.
09:14 And the other stock which has
09:17 other stock which has technically broken out is Tata Steve.
09:20 OK, now the breakout is sizzling out
09:23 because it's a weekly level and we are almost down.
09:26 But we've never historically sustained above 141
09:30 in the last one and a half to two years.
09:33 We're breaking out from here.
09:35 So it's a one rupee pay up.
09:36 So it's a smaller stock, smaller target.
09:39 Buy at 142, stop loss 137.
09:41 50 target 152.
09:42 The all time high is 153, above that VT 180.
09:45 But this is a four to six month longer call.
09:48 What I've given is a shorter term call and a shorter term target.
09:51 Maybe a medium term call.
09:53 All right.
09:55 So those are the top picks.
09:57 Tata Steel and Adani Enterprises for Heman.
10:00 Tata Steel with a slightly longer view.
10:02 Heman, stay on with us.
10:03 We'll take a very short break, but we'll keep a sharp eye on the markets.
10:08 Skittish is our term this afternoon of how markets are responding.
10:13 Rage about trade trending in negative territory at this point.
10:17 We'll come right back with a lot more.
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32:29 The most.
32:34 Notable part of the quarter gone by is that we were able to touch our
32:37 target.
32:38 Of a thousand wagons a month.
32:39 Which we did in the month of December.
32:43 And, you know, while that was a one off month,
32:45 but we going forward by March.
32:50 We're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
32:55 So this will kind of.
33:01 Continue to deliver us in a ballpark of 11, 12% of a beta.
33:05 And then the frame,
33:06 the passenger side will start really coming in from later this year.
33:09 Or later than 2024, 25.
33:12 Which will be the next booster for the overall business.
33:15 I presume from the second half.
33:16 Would that be a safe assumption?
33:18 I think it's a safe assumption.
33:20 I think it's a safe assumption.
33:21 We're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:23 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:25 And then the next phase of the business.
33:27 We're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:29 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:31 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:33 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:35 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:37 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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33:41 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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33:51 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:53 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:55 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:57 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
33:59 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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34:03 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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34:07 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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34:13 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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34:17 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
34:19 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
34:21 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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36:13 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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36:17 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:19 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:21 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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36:25 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:27 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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36:31 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:33 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:35 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:37 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:39 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:41 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:43 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:45 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:47 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:49 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:51 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:53 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:55 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:57 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
36:59 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:01 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:03 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:05 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:07 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:09 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:11 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:13 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:15 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:17 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:19 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
37:21 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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39:49 So we're going to be able to deliver on a consistent basis.
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50:25 That seemed like the primary beneficiary of a bad scenario with Paytm.
50:31 So that stock's still about 13% up, but off its lows.
50:36 What we are learning, and I'll just take you through those lines again.
50:39 Sources telling us that Paytm cannot sell its wallet business.
50:42 197 has surrendered its PPI license when it received its payment bank license.
50:48 There are restrictions right now on the bank that does not allow a transfer of its business.
50:53 Vijay Chopra with us. Vijay, views on all things Paytm.
50:58 Before we get Sajith Mangat for more on this story, just a quick take from you on Paytm.
51:04 And this is the thing with the market.
51:07 Someone's loss is assumed to be someone's gain, but maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves.
51:13 Well, I guess all the hoopla around Reliance or Reliance Jio taking over Paytm.
51:19 But I think that this is the right move, especially for the customers.
51:23 Paytm has to definitely set its house in order.
51:28 I heard Vijay Shekhar Sharma during the IPO, and they were overconfident on certain things.
51:34 And the way there has been a complete devastation of investor wealth,
51:39 I think they should be made responsible.
51:41 And it's not an easy cake.
51:44 And it's a message to the companies, FinTech companies, which are going to come in future as well.
51:48 They have to set the house in order. Compliances are to be met.
51:51 It's not like you can do anything and everything and you can get away with that.
51:56 So I would say this is a good move. And they have to set the house in order.
52:00 And if at all they want to even sell their business, they can sell it after proper compliances.
52:05 And you know, RBI definitely giving a go ahead.
52:08 So if RBI is not giving a go ahead, there might be more skeletons in the cupboard than we probably can see.
52:13 Sajith Mangat, please stay on with us, Vijay.
52:16 Sajith Mangat is joining us for more details on that story.
52:18 So Sajith, take us through this, because all day there's been a buzz of a buyer for Paytm's wallet business.
52:25 At this point, with things looking bleak, what if 197 does want to sort of offload?
52:32 Are you saying it's technically not possible?
52:35 So, you know, Tamanna, if you look at the RBI curve, which have come in,
52:39 it's basically trying to, it's on how to move out the customers to various banks
52:45 so that there's no disruption for the customers there, which includes change of notes.
52:53 Also, you know, looking at various gateways there.
52:56 What we understand from the current, you know, from highly placed sources is that the Paytm cannot sell its wallet business
53:05 because that's linked to the payment bank license, which is there.
53:10 If you remember, when the payment bank license came in, Paytm had applied for it and they got a payment bank license.
53:16 And when that happened, they had to basically, you know, surrender the existing PPI license,
53:23 which is prepaid payment instrument license, which is a wallet, in other words, for in layman's terms,
53:29 and then move to the payment bank, where 197, which is a listed company,
53:35 owns nearly 41% and 51% is held by Vijay Shekhar Sharma, who is the promoter.
53:41 And so, with the current regulation or curves in place, there is no way that Paytm can sell its wallet business
53:51 separately to any other entity.
53:54 And so, you know, that news report which was mentioning about that can be sold, it's not factually correct.
54:02 Bottom line, reports that Paytm can sell its wallet business are just simply not factually correct.
54:09 Thank you for that clarification, Sajid Mangat there with those exclusive sources.
54:13 Well, just about five minutes to go for market close and you're seeing range bound trade as part of weakness,
54:19 but nothing too massive. Small cap stocks seem to have recovered to some extent.
54:23 IT stocks feeling most of the heat this afternoon as well.
54:28 Himen, I'm going to come to you for your BTSD calls on a day like today and on a week like today,
54:34 where you're going to have one more event later on in this week with the monetary policy.
54:41 OK, so frankly speaking, it's a minefield for a BTSD or SBT, but a reach of 15 and a half still would seem to suggest that the volatility is not going away.
54:55 So I have a BTSD on Torrent Power. It's a BTSD. We're at around 11.22.
55:01 So I wait for 2 rupee fall. Bad 11.20. Stop loss 11.10. Target 11.40. A BTSD.
55:08 An STBT on Jubilant Food. STBT at around 4.86. Stop loss 4.92. Target 4.74.
55:16 Jubilant Food is given a breakdown and it's looking weak on all time frames.
55:22 So it's a STBT, but I believe positionally also, I think it's going to go 10-15% from here over the next four to six weeks or so.
55:31 OK, Vijay, any calls for tomorrow at all or any sectors or stocks on your radar?
55:38 Well, you know, I don't think that I am a BTSD guy. That would be a wrong question.
55:43 But yes, definitely I can share some of my views.
55:46 I think that Vedanta looks very good on the charts as well as, you know, there was news around, you know, it's going to bring down its debt considerably.
55:56 So Vedanta looks good on the card. The other company is Coromandel Fertilizers.
56:02 In the budget, Madam Nirmala said something about Nano DAP. It is one of the companies which manufactures Nano DAP.
56:10 There are a couple of companies which do. So Coromandel has corrected quite nicely.
56:14 I think that, you know, if somebody buys around here, 1086, it has a good potential to go up to 1200.
56:20 The other company I would like to recommend is Arte Drugs and Avacugar.
56:25 So these are two, three companies which I am looking at and they might be a decent return.
56:31 OK, well, certainly watch out for those.
56:35 And, you know, can't not talk about the kind of numbers that came in from a couple of names which include Tata Motors and Interglobe Aviation.
56:46 We haven't quite discussed Indigo. Very quick thoughts here.
56:50 Firstly, Hemant to you very quickly. Indigo has cooled off a little bit.
56:55 What do the charts indicate?
56:59 Time being small breather. If I had a slightly longer term view, 35 and 3800.
57:05 Time being it's taking a breather.
57:08 All right. A small breather. Indigo come off its highs, but definitely a fantastic quarter and another consecutive fantastic quarter for the airline with the largest market share.
57:20 It might also start business class seats as for one brokerage report.
57:24 That's what Nuvama thinks. But we'll see how that goes.
57:27 Vijay and Hemant, thank you so much for joining us this evening.
57:30 Let's look at how the markets are closing and how we are seeing off this Monday trade.
57:35 It's not been a very exciting day all around. And that is sort of reflecting in the close as well.
57:43 The Nifty is looking set to close about half percent or a little short of half percent down.
57:48 The Bank Nifty leading that sort of weakness.
57:52 I just want to pull up the Nifty chart through the day to track how it's been. And you're seeing more weakness coming in during closing as far as the front line is concerned.
58:01 Look at that. Look at that. Where in the last half hour or so you're seeing that weakness coming in.
58:06 Nifty set maybe to close near the day's lows as well.
58:11 Let's pull up the heat map to see where that pressure is actually building in on the front line stocks.
58:17 And it's coming from UPL. I mean this stock is getting badgered. We've had a clutch of experts today talking about it all day.
58:25 The last one a few minutes ago Vijay Chopra said that you know it's down but not out.
58:30 The worst perhaps is done. But still that stock 11 percent down.
58:34 And you're seeing even Bharti pretty weak there. You know just ahead of its numbers.
58:40 Numbers due later today. So you'll see the result of that on markets tomorrow.
58:44 Tata Motors on the other hand having a superb day. Coal India, BPCL.
58:48 I mean whoever is saying that PSU stocks have run up too much.
58:52 They're no longer the flavor of the season is looking at some other market clearly.
58:56 Because ONGC, Power Grid, Tata Steel as well all of them doing exceptionally well.
59:01 Good day for Pharma as well. Not so much for Tech and IT.
59:05 So all in all we'll wait and see if this market continues to be skittish on the edge going into a big week in terms of the RBI.
59:13 But for now that's it from me Neeraj and the entire team.
59:17 That puts the show together. Thank you for watching.