Former Gonzaga All-American Dan Dickau breaks down the Bulldogs' next two games against Portland and the much-anticipated battle at Kentucky
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00:00 Hey everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Gonzaga Nation podcast.
00:03 Christian Pedersen joined as always by Dan Dickow.
00:05 Dan, four months now, we kind of teased out that this Kentucky game is going to be a fun
00:11 little late in the season to just kind of keep things spicy and keep Gonzaga on their
00:16 toes.
00:17 The game is finally here.
00:18 It is the game week.
00:19 We're going to close with that.
00:21 No normal like, hey, what's up next for Gonzaga?
00:23 So let's do this in reverse, knowing how big that game is.
00:26 Let's talk about everything else that's going on in the WCC this week, set up the picture
00:30 for what the week's going to look like for Gonzaga with Portland and then Kentucky.
00:34 And then we'll make sure we give the people all the information they need to know about
00:37 what is probably the biggest game left on the schedule.
00:41 This week though, USD has helped to kind of figure some parts of this race out.
00:46 Now, USF is still surprisingly hanging in.
00:50 Give everybody the picture as to what's going on with Gonzaga, the WCC, and maybe some non-Gonzaga
00:55 games that people need to know about this week.
00:57 Well, I mean, things are kind of evening themselves out, so to speak.
01:05 You know, the fact that St. Mary's was picked number one in the coaches poll, Gonzaga too,
01:11 it's playing out just as predicted, you know, for Gonzaga, the hard part is you drop a game
01:19 to Santa Clara on the road.
01:21 So now after that home loss to St. Mary's over the weekend, instead of being, you know,
01:27 one game behind, knowing that you still have one regular season opportunity against them
01:33 to tie for the regular season title, you're a full two games behind and you absolutely
01:38 have to have a good amount of help from someone else in the league to knock off St. Mary's,
01:45 which to be honest, at this moment in time, doesn't look like it's going to happen.
01:48 They're playing extremely well.
01:50 But Gonzaga, 7-2, that loss to Santa Clara really hurting them now.
01:54 San Francisco at 7-2 as well.
01:56 Santa Clara 6-3.
01:58 They lost, surprisingly, to San Diego by 11 over the weekend after San Diego looked absolutely
02:05 terrible at San Francisco on Thursday.
02:09 You know, and then the bottom half of the league, you know, it is what it is.
02:13 Loyola-Maramount 3-5, San Diego 3-6, Portland 3-6, Pepperdine 2-7, Pacific 0-9.
02:19 You know, what you kind of have to hope for is one of those teams really surprising St.
02:26 Mary's.
02:27 And honestly, I don't see that happening.
02:28 The best chance would have been Loyola-Maramount because they're talented, but they've already
02:35 played St. Mary's twice and St. Mary's beat them twice by four and by five.
02:39 So those were close games.
02:41 Santa Clara has played St. Mary's twice now, lost both times as well.
02:47 San Francisco does still play St. Mary's.
02:52 I believe it's in Moraga.
02:54 Yes, it is in Moraga.
02:56 So that's going to be obviously an advantage to St. Mary's.
02:59 So really, Gonzaga's got to look for, you know, a USD or a Portland who lost to St.
03:06 Mary's in Moraga by 40 points or a Pepperdine or a Pacific who hosts St. Mary's this upcoming
03:14 Tuesday to surprise them.
03:16 But in all honesty, it looks like, you know, WCC title is going to go to St. Mary's in
03:22 the regular season unless somehow some way they get quite a bit of help.
03:27 OK, so perpetual upset alert, just kind of keeping that on the back like turn on a Google
03:32 alert for in case St. Mary's drops one, which you're saying is less than likely.
03:37 So what degree of scoreboard watching should Gonzaga fans even be doing?
03:41 Are you saying like, is this almost the time where it's like, hey, don't worry about the
03:45 rest of that, because this is just like, let's focus on getting a little bit better.
03:49 Everything every day between now and the tournament and just Gonzaga is going to win this tournament
03:53 to get in or like what is it still?
03:55 Hey, watch for some like.
03:58 Kind of where should people be focusing right now in terms of all that kind of stuff?
04:02 Here's where the focus needs to lie.
04:04 And I know this will be how Coach Few and staff look at it.
04:09 Get a little bit better every single day.
04:12 Worry about ourselves.
04:13 You can't worry about if the team's going to knock off St. Mary's.
04:16 If somebody does, gives them a chance to get back into the race.
04:20 Awesome.
04:21 They'll take it.
04:22 But, you know, what they need to focus on right now is getting better themselves every
04:27 single game, not allowing a game like hosting Portland this upcoming Wednesday, you know,
04:34 to be overlooked by anybody and dropping one of those, because that would be an absolute
04:40 disaster if that were to happen.
04:43 Because look, Gonzaga does have a couple of really good opportunities left to build their
04:48 resume for the NCAA selection committee if by chance they're not able to win the tournament
04:53 title in Las Vegas in March.
04:56 But those are few and far in between, right?
05:00 The only ones that you have left that are quad ones are at St. Mary's as well as at
05:06 Kentucky this upcoming Saturday.
05:08 Kentucky sits at 26 in the net, where Gonzaga sits at 27.
05:13 St. Mary's is at 21 in the net.
05:16 You know, the other one is San Francisco.
05:19 Currently, they're sitting in the mid-50s in the net.
05:23 You have to hope that they hold up their end of the bargain and they win all the way through
05:28 that matchup on the road.
05:29 Now this is the caveat.
05:31 I can't find the information.
05:33 I'm going to keep digging and we'll know for sure on our next recording.
05:38 So that game for Gonzaga against San Francisco is not a true home game for San Francisco
05:44 on campus.
05:45 It's a neutral site, which is deemed a home game for San Francisco at the Chase Center
05:50 in San Francisco where the Warriors play.
05:52 So that changes things because if you beat a top 50 team on a neutral site, it's a quad
06:01 one win.
06:02 If you beat a top 75 net team on their home gym, one through 75, that's a quad one win.
06:11 So that is pretty important right there because if that is deemed a true home game, that will
06:20 become a quad one opportunity for Gonzaga.
06:23 If it's deemed a neutral site, as of this moment, that is a quad two.
06:27 Interesting.
06:28 I never thought about that distinction of, "Hey, it's fun to go play at this bigger,
06:34 better, badder, cooler arena, but it's also going to cost you the differential of what
06:39 a weird year of everything non on the court related for Gonzaga letting them down as a
06:45 squad and potentially just being the, "Hey, like it's not us, it's you."
06:50 The reverse of every other breakup line.
06:52 The, "It's not you, it's me."
06:54 This year it is everybody else and not Gonzaga.
06:57 And to further that point, that's exactly what that USC and UCLA and to a certain extent
07:04 the Syracuse wins are doing.
07:07 UCLA is making a nice run the last three weeks.
07:10 I think they've won five of their last six.
07:14 They're still not creeping into that quad one, quad two-ish category at this moment
07:19 in time.
07:20 They're going to last in the Pac-12, which was definitely not to be expected.
07:27 And then Syracuse and the ACC, they're just middle of the pack.
07:30 So I can't see that.
07:31 They would have to knock off a Duke, knock off a North Carolina.
07:35 They'd have to have a couple of those to really make a move in the net that then in turn would
07:41 help Gonzaga.
07:42 So those games that early, you're like, "Hey, these aren't bad."
07:47 They're not helping in any way, shape or form now.
07:49 I tried so hard to go to Blue Blood College basketball schools.
07:53 And I know this is a Gonzaga podcast and you're not here for my whinies and whatever, but
07:57 I go to the schools that had Wooden and Bayheim and I am left with this.
08:02 You know what?
08:03 I just picked it.
08:04 I just looked at the Syracuse net and it's not as bad as I thought.
08:08 They could be a cute little 10 seed blue collar team that puts together, like they're not
08:12 a fantastic basketball team.
08:14 They're sitting at 84 in the net, but the ACC, there's only two teams in the top 35
08:21 in the net, Carolina and Duke.
08:24 So really they're not going to have a quad one opportunities themselves other than those.
08:29 But if they can string together a nice stretch of quad twos, maybe they can bump themselves
08:33 up somehow.
08:35 And then that becomes a solid, well, that would be a quad two win for Gonzaga still
08:40 at this moment in time.
08:41 Exactly.
08:42 And it's not everybody else's fault other than not to get tired, but it is funny that
08:45 there is the, there is a year where you can mathematically prove that other teams are
08:51 just not as good as they used to be.
08:53 And it is, it is overall weighing you down in the last couple of minutes.
08:57 You've mentioned both the Portland and the Kentucky game.
08:58 Let's talk about them first with Portland.
09:01 You mentioned it perfectly kind of dancing around the word trap game.
09:04 I'm not going to say that this is a trap game, but it always presents the opportunity to
09:08 be a trap game when you have something like a Kentucky later in the week.
09:14 Give people the cliff notes.
09:15 What do they need to know about Portland?
09:17 What does Gonzaga need to focus on in the game to make sure that that doesn't happen?
09:21 Well, that game's on CBS Sportsnet.
09:24 I'll actually be on the call with Rich Waltz, so that'll be fun.
09:27 But it's a five o'clock tip, which is not normal for Gonzaga home games midweek.
09:33 You know, usually you look at if it's a KHQ game, it's six.
09:36 If it's a CBS Sportsnet or an ESPN broadcast, usually it sits at eight o'clock.
09:44 But not this time.
09:45 It's a five o'clock game.
09:47 And so that's going to maybe slightly change the preparation of guys that day.
09:53 But it's also going to maybe be a late arriving crowd.
09:56 So you never know what that energy is like the first few minutes of the game.
09:59 But you know, Portland's an interesting team.
10:01 They're sitting at nine and 15.
10:03 You know, they're six in the WCC.
10:06 I believe they're three and six.
10:07 They're OK, but they're not great.
10:09 They shoot a ton of threes, but then they don't have a great post presence.
10:13 They kind of had a roster that's kind of gone, that's fluctuated in and out.
10:19 They dismissed a player from the team right around the Christmas break, right before league
10:23 play started.
10:24 So they've kind of reinvented how they play a little bit because they tried to accentuate
10:29 him in the post quite a bit.
10:31 They pulled the player's red shirt.
10:33 And so now they're getting him up to speed.
10:35 And oddly enough, he's one of their better players, averaging over double figures.
10:39 But at the end of the day for Portland, I think things begin and end with Tyler Robertson.
10:45 Averages almost 17 a game, almost four assists.
10:48 Maybe one of the most unheralded players in the league who does a lot of things, can impact
10:53 the game in so many ways.
10:54 But he doesn't wow you with anything in particular because he's not a great athlete.
10:59 He's just a very, very good basketball player.
11:02 So I think Gonzaga has got to be mindful of him.
11:04 They'll post him up a lot.
11:06 He'll back guys down.
11:07 He's a good shooter.
11:09 And then the other guys that really shoot, have freedom beyond the three point line to
11:14 let it fly.
11:15 Lukasen Mesic is a good shooter.
11:18 Juan Sebastian Garacito, where probably 90% of his shots come from beyond the arc, is
11:23 starting to shoot it better in league play.
11:26 Their biggest potential athlete would be a freshman, Tyler Harris.
11:33 He averages over 11 points a game, but as a freshman, seven and a half rebounds.
11:38 He's active, averages about a block a game.
11:41 So he's a guy to keep out for.
11:42 And then the player that I mentioned, they pulled his red shirt when a player was dismissed,
11:47 Yudo Yamanuchi Williams.
11:50 They've got high hopes for him.
11:51 He's been a little inconsistent when they pulled his red shirt, but he's getting great
11:56 opportunities.
11:57 He's had some really nice games, but he averages right around 10.6 rebounds a game.
12:01 But Gonzaga hasn't played Portland yet this season.
12:07 But when you look at what Portland's done in league, they're sitting at three and six
12:12 as mentioned, but they've struggled against Pacific.
12:18 They won by 14 on the road to Pacific, but then they barely got by on the road at Pacific.
12:25 They've gotten blasted by LMU.
12:27 They've gotten blasted by St. Mary's, but they've kept things close against San Diego,
12:34 somewhat close against San Francisco as well.
12:37 So it all depends, I think, on which team shows up for Portland.
12:41 Is it the team that is able to knock down threes, which allows them to get back and
12:47 set up their defense?
12:48 Because we all know Gonzaga is one of their strengths is getting out and running in transition.
12:52 If Portland can get started early from the three-point line, that allows them to set
12:58 their defense because they'll jump things up defensively, play a number of different
13:01 zones.
13:03 That would definitely make things interesting.
13:06 All right, well, then let's move on to the next game of the week, and that is Kentucky.
13:10 And I think everybody agrees that this game would be fun if it was a Drew Timmy-led team
13:16 or a one-and-done team, like someone that was like, "Hey, we're going to take down
13:19 Kentucky."
13:20 They would be the -- they are the underdogs in this game.
13:22 There is no batting around that fact.
13:25 This is a team that's going to -- it's an uphill battle to win this one, and I want
13:30 to hear your game plan on how Gonzaga needs to attack this one, but also knowing that,
13:36 like you said, this is a team that's getting better one game every time, like every -- just
13:41 one step forward every day, getting a little bit better towards that end goal of being
13:44 your best right at the tournament.
13:45 How does Coach Pheu and this team navigate, you know, potentially a lot -- like, say they
13:50 lose by 15, how do you avoid this being a divot in the season should things not be,
13:56 you know, an upset glorious win that takes the sports center number one play type up?
14:01 Well, here's the thing.
14:03 I mean, when you look at Kentucky, they've got a very unique profile.
14:12 You know, obviously, they're a blue blood, they're a program that everybody looks to
14:17 that, you know, hey, it's Kentucky, right?
14:20 And so there's a ton of high expectations year in and year out, and that's one of the
14:25 reasons Gonzaga put this game together as a six-year series, you know, to be able to
14:32 provide another resume builder for them each season.
14:39 You know, Kentucky sits at 15-6, they're fifth in the SEC.
14:46 You know, their metrics being their net and their Ken Palm are not as good as their AP
14:53 in their coaches poll rankings.
14:55 They were AP top 10 last week.
14:58 It'll adjust this week when it comes out later today, but, you know, because they lost to
15:04 Tennessee, but they're sitting at 26 in the net, one above Gonzaga.
15:11 They're sitting at, let me look at it really quick.
15:14 They're also sitting at 27 in Ken Palm where Gonzaga sits at 21 in Ken Palm.
15:20 So the metrics don't like this Kentucky team as much as the eyeball watchers, the people
15:28 who watch them play.
15:29 And now that's funny because it's flipped for Gonzaga, the metrics, the net, as well
15:35 as the Ken Palm like Gonzaga better than any of the voters.
15:38 I mean, quite frankly, I don't think Gonzaga will receive a single vote now in either poll
15:44 after having lost to the St. Mary's.
15:46 And by the way, I think St. Mary's should be ranked in the top 25.
15:49 If they're not, you know, I think that that is a disgrace.
15:54 But when you look at Kentucky, they're a very talented team.
15:58 Coach Calipari, you know, he's gone in waves with getting great freshmen and then, you
16:03 know, missing on a recruiting class or two here or there.
16:07 But overall, this Kentucky team is talented.
16:11 They're loaded.
16:12 They've got athletes, they've got size, they've got scoring, but they struggle to defend.
16:16 And I think that's something that really helps Gonzaga in this matchup because Gonzaga defensively,
16:22 their metrics are good.
16:24 You know, they're still good on the offensive end, but they're not great like they've been
16:28 in years past.
16:30 But defensively, I think Gonzaga, you know, with their gap coverage in the gaps and being
16:36 solid on the glass, I think is going to give Kentucky a lot of problems scoring in the
16:40 half court.
16:41 Now you got to take away Kentucky's transition because they got some guys that can really
16:46 get out and transition and finish.
16:48 I mean, you look at Antonio Reeves averaged nearly 20 a game.
16:52 Rob Dillingham is an explosive young scorer.
16:57 You know, he only plays about 24 minutes a game, but he averages 15 and almost four assists.
17:02 So he's ultra aggressive trying to make plays.
17:07 Another freshman that I really like, Reed Shepard, shoots the heck out of it from the
17:11 three point line, over 50 percent from three.
17:14 And it's not on limited attempts.
17:15 I mean, he's got the freedom to really take shots, make shots, create shots.
17:20 DJ Wagner is another really good freshman.
17:22 His minutes have kind of gone up and down, up and down.
17:26 But he can really score in bunches as well.
17:28 They've got five guys that average in double figures.
17:31 And as mentioned, they want to they want to play fast.
17:33 They want to get up and down.
17:34 They average almost 90 a game.
17:35 So I think for Gonzaga, it's going to be getting back in transition, take away those easy buckets
17:42 and then make things difficult in the half court for Kentucky, which teams have shown
17:47 they can do that.
17:49 So you're saying the weird mix of this is not necessarily potentially as big of a gap
17:59 between these two teams as it seems on paper, because maybe they're a little bit of a voter
18:02 biased team.
18:03 But you're also saying like, hey, they are not necessarily a bad team.
18:07 Like they got a pretty good offense.
18:08 So Gonzaga is going to it will be a you are saying it'll be an entertaining game.
18:12 Yes.
18:13 Yeah, I think it's going to be a heck of a game.
18:15 I think it's going to be very entertaining.
18:16 Obviously, Gonzaga knows that, you know, their backs are against the wall.
18:19 They use that old and tired cliche, but they've got to get a win.
18:23 Right.
18:24 So they're going to come out ready to go.
18:26 Rupp Arena is a tremendous atmosphere, one of the best in all of college basketball.
18:29 It'll be 18, 20,000 fans there.
18:32 It'll be a national CBS game midday.
18:36 So it's a huge game.
18:37 It's a huge opportunity.
18:39 And again, I meant we kind of talked about the metrics versus the eyeball test.
18:45 And I think the eyeball test gives the advantage to Kentucky this year where their numbers
18:51 don't show them to be as good as maybe people think.
18:56 Which test do you trust more of the sniff test or the eyeball test?
19:00 I'm still an eyeball guy, you know, and I think there's three ways you got to look at
19:05 players and teams, eyes, ears and numbers.
19:08 What are your eyes telling you?
19:10 Right.
19:11 What do you see?
19:12 And with your own memories, your experience, your recollection, you know, what tends to
19:17 fit as being successful or talented as a player or a team?
19:21 Your ears, what are you hearing?
19:22 Talking to other coaching staffs in preparing a scouting report or looking at a player?
19:27 What is another coach telling you about a certain player?
19:30 And then the numbers is that third piece.
19:32 That's the metrics where unfortunately in this day and age, there are so many analytic
19:37 services and focuses that you can shift.
19:41 And really, you can find ways to tweak the numbers to fit someone's narrative pretty
19:47 easily these days if you just look at a couple of different things.
19:50 So, you know, the big ones are points per possession, both offensively and defensively,
19:55 effective field goal percentage, which is a combination of two point and three point
19:59 field goal percentage based on how many you shoot of each.
20:02 And then, you know, a lot of it also depends on rebound, right?
20:06 How many rebounds you get per possession that's available.
20:10 And then I think a big one for Gonzaga is tempo and pace.
20:13 How fast do you play?
20:14 Because, you know, the game on Saturday against St. Mary's was a battle of tempo.
20:21 Gonzaga tried to speed up St. Mary's by going three quarter court press.
20:24 And that is a constant when you try to play St. Mary's because they want to play so slow
20:28 and they weren't able to turn them over, you know, the way that they would have liked.
20:32 Now, this game, both teams want to play fast.
20:35 Gonzaga, Kentucky, I think they're both in the top 20 in the country as far as pace and
20:39 tempo, how they want to play.
20:40 So this is going to be a track meet.
20:41 I love it.
20:42 I'm excited to watch.
20:43 This is definitely a year where no one is super safe in college basketball.
20:47 So, hey, why not?
20:48 Why not have this be Gonzaga catching fire by going into a rough arena and getting a
20:52 big upset win?
20:54 Let's close this out, as always, with reminding people about all the amazing content you have
20:57 coming out of the great studio that you guys have built this year.
21:01 Tons of players, coaches, former and current greats of Gonzaga repute are coming through
21:06 there all season long.
21:07 What do you got coming up this week?
21:10 John Stockton is joining Adam and I in studio today.
21:13 So we've got a big one.
21:15 We'll talk as normal a little bit about current team, big picture Gonzaga, as well as, you
21:21 know, when you get around John, we start talking historical basketball stuff, some of his experiences,
21:26 because you can take my experiences and you could take Adam's experiences and they're
21:31 pretty cool, right?
21:32 But when you talk about John Stockton's experiences playing the game of basketball, I mean, you
21:37 can just multiply that out by a thousand.
21:40 It certainly is a amazing trio of people to have together in one place talking basketball.
21:47 I'm sure that some of it will be a little bit over everybody's heads when you guys are
21:50 that level of cerebral, great basketball minds.
21:52 But I'm excited to see that, man.
21:54 It's always great to see all the stuff you got coming out this year.
21:55 Make sure you guys search and subscribe for Gonzaga Nation, where we get your podcast.
21:59 Check us out on the website and check us out also on all the socials at fan nations.
22:03 Until then, guys will say goodbye.
22:04 Dan, thank you very much.