- #NDTVProfitExclusive: #Paytm's #VijayShekharSharma met with FM, told to deal directly with #RBI
- Why did #Britannia see a significant dip in Q3 profit?
All this and more with Alex Mathew on 'All You Need To Know'. #NDTVProfitLive
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- Why did #Britannia see a significant dip in Q3 profit?
All this and more with Alex Mathew on 'All You Need To Know'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
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00:36 Good morning and welcome.
00:37 NDTV Profit, my name is Alex Matthew,
00:38 and you're watching All You Need to Know.
00:40 Over the course of the next half an hour,
00:41 we'll tell you everything that you need to know
00:43 to start your day on the right note.
00:45 Let's start with the headlines.
00:47 Paytm's Vijay Shekhar Sharma meets finance minister
00:49 is told to deal directly with the Reserve Bank of India.
00:52 That's an NDTV Profit exclusive.
00:56 Chanda Kochar's arrest by the CBI is deemed illegal,
00:59 and that's according to the Bombay High Court.
01:02 It upholds the earlier interim bill.
01:05 Regional players give Britannia tough competition,
01:08 eat into its business, profits dip in the third quarter.
01:13 US markets end the day flat.
01:14 The S&P 500 climbs 0.2% to end near record close.
01:20 And Asian markets open mixed.
01:22 Japan's Nikkei 225 is the sole loser among the early risers.
01:26 Now, it was a day of narrow gains for US equities.
01:32 The Dow and the S&P 500 gaining about 0.4% and 0.2%
01:35 respectively, while the Nasdaq--
01:37 and that's a Nasdaq composite-- ended flat.
01:40 S&P 500, of course, ended just four points shy
01:44 of its record close of 4,958.6.
01:48 That's as investors assess a slew of earnings
01:50 from the broader markets.
01:52 Asian markets are currently trading mixed as we speak.
01:55 In fact, let's pull up some of those for you right now.
01:57 You have the Nikkei 225, which is trading with narrow cuts.
02:00 But of course, you have Chinese stocks
02:03 that have gained quite significantly
02:05 in the anticipation that the Chinese government will
02:08 step in with measures to bolster the stock market.
02:11 In the commodity space, oil was steady this morning
02:14 after a two-day gain, with the markets dealing
02:17 with both geopolitical risk in West Asia
02:20 as well as a report showing stockpiles expanding in the US.
02:24 Huthis said that they targeted two ships
02:27 in the southern Red Sea area.
02:30 And meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute in the US
02:33 has said that nationwide crude inventories grew by as much
02:38 as 674,000 barrels last week.
02:41 Both of those are based on Bloomberg reports.
02:44 Brent is currently trading at under $80
02:47 to the battle as we speak.
02:49 Now, let's turn attention to the Indian equity markets.
02:52 And you saw, of course, gains in trade yesterday.
02:55 But where are we headed today?
02:56 What are the latest cues from the F&O space?
02:58 Agam is joining in to tell you just that.
03:01 Agam, what are the cues telling you this morning?
03:04 Well, good morning, Alex.
03:05 We are looking at consolidation.
03:07 That's something that we were expecting.
03:09 And that's something that's panning out as well.
03:11 Yesterday, we did see some advances for the Nifty,
03:14 in fact, up around 0.7%, with a near 2%
03:17 added in open interest in terms of its futures.
03:20 The bank Nifty, on the other hand,
03:22 well, showed a little bit more weakness down by about 0.3%,
03:25 with a near point, pardon me, 8% added in open interest
03:30 towards what it does seem like its shorts.
03:32 It was a fin Nifty expiry yesterday, of course,
03:35 which ended flat-ish yesterday.
03:37 But let's talk about the options market.
03:39 And that's where we are seeing a little bit more
03:43 writing around the puts.
03:44 Of course, we haven't really moved well
03:46 about the mark of 22,000.
03:48 But a lot of put writing around the mark of 21,500 to 21,800,
03:53 as you can see here, some unwinding in calls as well.
03:56 And let's talk about the overall open interest.
04:00 Well, this range has actually shifted higher, as you can see,
04:04 because max OIN calls has now reached 22,500.
04:08 And the max OIN put has also moved higher at around 21,700.
04:12 This is, of course, good news for the bulls.
04:14 And moving on, let's also talk about the bank Nifty.
04:19 It is of weekly options expiry, and 46,000 will be crucial.
04:23 It will be an important mark to keep an eye on.
04:26 And that's as far as the ranges that we
04:30 are working with are concerned, Alex.
04:32 Overall, expecting consolidation,
04:34 but it could be a choppy day because of the bank Nifty
04:36 expiry.
04:36 Certainly.
04:37 Thanks so much, Agam, for pointing that out.
04:39 Let's turn to an exclusive that we have for you this morning.
04:43 This is the latest in the PTM saga.
04:46 And this relates to a meeting that Vijay Shekhar Sharma had
04:48 with the finance minister yesterday.
04:50 But we've got Pragati to tell you
04:52 what happened in that meeting and what
04:54 happens going forward as well.
04:56 Pragati, what can you tell us?
04:58 Yes, so Vijay Shekhar Sharma, according to our sources,
05:01 met the finance minister on Tuesday evening around 5, 530.
05:06 And primarily, he met the finance minister
05:08 seeking help with regards to what has recently happened
05:11 with PayTM Payments Bank, and specifically referring
05:13 to the RBI clampdown that happened on 31st Jan.
05:16 From what we know from our sources
05:18 is that the finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman,
05:20 showed Vijay Shekhar Sharma the door
05:22 and said that it is best for the company
05:24 and him to deal with the regulator, that is the RBI,
05:28 directly.
05:28 And there will be no involvement of the finance ministry
05:31 in this entire thing.
05:32 Now, we also know that Vijay Shekhar Sharma even
05:35 spoke about the fact the larger repercussions
05:38 or the impact of RBI's clampdown on PayTM Payments
05:40 Bank can have on the fintech industry.
05:43 And hence, he was trying to seek support and help
05:46 from the ministry in this regard.
05:48 However, like we already mentioned,
05:50 that the finance minister said that it is best for them
05:53 to deal directly with the RBI.
05:55 And nothing more actually came out of this meeting.
05:57 That's exactly what we know from our sources.
05:59 If we have more, we will bring back to you.
06:02 All right.
06:02 Thanks so much for bringing us those details.
06:05 Like Pragati said, we will stay with that story through the day
06:08 and bring you live updates.
06:10 Now, pharma major Lupin is expected
06:13 to come out with its earnings report today
06:15 for the third quarter.
06:16 And a major jump in the profit is on the cards.
06:19 Monal is here to tell you why that is.
06:22 Morning, Monal.
06:23 What can you tell us?
06:24 Morning, Alex.
06:25 Yes.
06:26 It's actually been quite a week for pharma
06:28 because we've been seeing an up move in the nifty for sure.
06:33 Lupin, there is an expectation that the profits will
06:36 come at around 433 crores, which is around 183% higher.
06:41 But this, mind you, is on the back of certain one offs
06:43 that existed in the base quarter as well.
06:46 However, EBITDA also they're expecting
06:48 should be up by around 70% revenue up.
06:52 And EBITDA margins at 18%.
06:54 So now the key monitor is here of what
06:56 we should be looking out for is whether the margins come
06:59 in at 18% because this is what the management had guided
07:01 in the first quarter.
07:02 And this is how they look to end the quarter.
07:05 So this will determine how the stock will react.
07:08 Also, the growth in the India business.
07:10 So Lupin has been suffering from volume growth issues
07:14 in the India business and also price issues
07:17 because certain drugs were included
07:20 under the essential medicines list that
07:22 is regulated pricing this year.
07:24 So what is happening on the India front
07:26 is also a key thing to watch out.
07:28 US performance and the kind of price erosion
07:31 the company is going to suffer is also something
07:34 that's going to matter.
07:35 And one of its key drugs, the generic version of Spiriva,
07:39 and its contribution to the overall revenue
07:42 will be a monitor bill.
07:43 Also, what sort of launch pipeline
07:46 will the company announce?
07:48 That's important.
07:49 Right.
07:50 Thanks so much for getting us those details.
07:52 Of course, we'll bring you live updates
07:53 when we get those numbers as well and the analysis of that.
07:57 Let's turn to another story.
07:58 The Bombay High Court has granted relief
08:00 to former ICICI Bank Chief Executive Officer Chanda
08:02 Kochar and her husband by accepting the petition
08:06 challenging the CBI arrest.
08:08 Charu Singh is joining in to give you
08:09 some more context about what the court said
08:12 and what the context of this case is.
08:14 Charu, morning, what can you tell us?
08:17 Hi, Alex.
08:17 So what has happened in this case
08:19 is that an interim bail that was granted to the Kochars
08:23 has just been confirmed by the Bombay High Court.
08:26 What happened was that in 2022, after appearing
08:29 in front of the CBI, the couple was arrested.
08:32 And in January in 2023, they were given an interim bail.
08:35 And then the extension was continuously given repeatedly.
08:39 And that's when a case was filed with the Supreme Court
08:42 saying that the proceedings are not taking place expeditiously.
08:46 And when the ethics court asked the Bombay High Court
08:48 to take some action in a hurried manner, in an efficient manner,
08:52 the Bombay High Court came up with confirming the bail that
08:56 was granted in 2023.
08:58 Now, what might happen is that the proceedings
09:00 before the Supreme Court might pick up again
09:03 against the bail that is now being confirmed.
09:05 And the status might or might not change.
09:08 So this is not a hard and fast thing that has happened.
09:11 Apart from this, we also need to consider
09:13 that the couple did not ask for the FIR itself to be Kosh.
09:17 They said just that the procedural lapses have
09:20 taken place with the arrest.
09:22 And that is why a bail is necessary.
09:25 The court also noted, while granting them bail,
09:28 that the FIR that was filed against the couple
09:31 only mentioned that they were not
09:32 cooperating with the authorities.
09:34 And that is why the arrest was necessary.
09:36 The court found this to be extremely short and arbitrary
09:38 and said that this does not warrant an arrest.
09:41 However, considering that the procedural lapses have actually
09:44 taken place, the couple was granted a bail.
09:47 That's all for now.
09:48 All right.
09:49 Thanks so much, Aaru, for getting us those details.
09:51 We have to slip into a very quick break.
09:53 But we've got a lot of stock-specific action
09:55 for you on the other side.
09:56 So do stay tuned.
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12:21 Welcome back.
12:23 You're watching All You Need to Know.
12:25 Let's focus on some of the stocks
12:26 that you should watch out for in trade today.
12:28 And Harsh Saita is joining in to tell you about some of those.
12:31 Harsh, morning.
12:32 What can you tell us?
12:33 Well, good morning, Alex.
12:35 Let me first take it across to UPL.
12:37 That one's in focus.
12:38 It's been in focus this week on the back of earnings.
12:40 And the negativity doesn't seem to go away for UPL.
12:43 What Moody's has actually done is they've downgraded UPL
12:46 to be a one.
12:47 Outlook continues to remain negative.
12:49 Let's pull out some numbers with regard to UPL itself.
12:52 It has around 35,000 crore of debt,
12:55 which has risen from the 24,000 crore mark
12:58 at the end of the last financial year.
13:00 So a huge amount of debt which has come through
13:02 over the last six odd months.
13:04 Also, in terms of just the sales numbers,
13:06 those are the numbers.
13:07 Cash plus inventory plus receivables
13:09 currently sit at 40,000 crore.
13:10 It's been going up.
13:11 It's gone up by around 5,000 to 6,000 crore over--
13:15 or rather, it's seen a knock with regard to cash.
13:20 But the inventory level has gone up.
13:22 And largely, that amount has remained the same
13:24 over the last six to nine months.
13:26 So overall, what it seems like is the debt
13:29 is what is proving to be the burden for the company.
13:32 It's made a loss in the nine-month FY '24 period as well.
13:38 So keep an eye out on UPL.
13:39 That one will be in focus.
13:41 I'm going to quickly switch it over.
13:42 We had Mann Industries.
13:43 Ashish Kacholia has purchased shares in Mann Industries,
13:47 50 crore worth of shares.
13:49 Mann Industries did a PREF issue of roughly 250 crore,
13:52 50 crore of which was subscribed by Ashish Kacholia alone.
13:55 This one will be in focus on the back of that.
13:57 Post this allotment, Ashish Kacholia will own
14:01 a 2% stake in Mann Industries, that one in focus as well.
14:05 I'm going to quickly switch to the last one.
14:08 Well, you have Max Life in focus.
14:11 They've received IRDA approval for the 1612 crore
14:14 capital infusion by Axis.
14:16 This, of course, improves solvency for Max Life.
14:19 Max Financial is the holder in Max Life.
14:21 And therefore, the shares of that company will be in focus.
14:24 Stock was up 5% in trade yesterday.
14:27 Axis Bank will also be in focus
14:29 because this has been an overhang for Axis.
14:31 Mind you, Axis already owns roughly 12% in Max Life.
14:37 And this will further bolster the holding of Axis to 19%.
14:43 This has been a key overhang.
14:45 I did mention that.
14:46 Rs. 32 per share is what Axis had bought the 12% stake at.
14:51 Currently, it's going to buy it at Rs. 113 a share.
14:55 Of course, CCI approval awaited.
14:57 And some of the key approvals awaited.
14:59 But this is, of course, a positive development nonetheless.
15:01 Alex.
15:02 All right. Thanks so much.
15:03 And certainly, stocks to watch in trade.
15:05 Some of those, of course, already reacting very sharply in trade yesterday.
15:08 Let's talk about Britannia, which came out with its December quarter numbers.
15:12 And it turns out that the company saw a significant dip in profit
15:16 with a margin contraction as well.
15:20 Sesha is joining in to tell you which way the cookie crumbled.
15:23 Sesha, what can you tell us?
15:25 Right.
15:26 So, Britannia earnings were largely aligned with estimates.
15:29 We have seen revenue rise 1.4% to Rs. 4,256 crore.
15:35 EBITDA grew 0.4%.
15:38 Profit after tax declined 40.4%.
15:41 That's a steep decline in profit.
15:43 But, however, that's given that there was an exceptional gain in the base quarter.
15:48 But even without that, even the profit before exceptional items and tax fell 2% to Rs. 761 crore.
15:56 However, the quarter was marked with intense competition from regional players
16:01 and continued weakness in rural spending also owing to the high cost of living.
16:05 However, there are two key positives in the Britannia earnings.
16:09 One is that the volumes grew 5.5%.
16:13 Now, this comes at a time when the industry overall is, you know,
16:18 they have reported low single-digit volume growth.
16:21 And the margins have expanded to 19.3%, you know, that's beating estimates.
16:28 Now, Britannia took price cuts during the quarter,
16:32 which helped the company to gain market share and volume recovery is what we understand.
16:38 It also partnered with more than 29,000 rural distributors to expand reach.
16:43 As a result, its focus states, which is Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh,
16:48 as well as Uttar Pradesh outperformed other regions in terms of growth,
16:52 despite a general subdued rural demand.
16:55 The international business grew in double digits.
16:58 Going forward, however, the company will stay vigilant on the commodity costs
17:03 and the evolving geopolitical situation.
17:07 For getting out those details, sticking with earnings,
17:09 then let's talk about Naveen Fluorine as well as JB Chemicals, GSFC,
17:14 as well as we've got NICA as well to talk about.
17:17 And Mihika has got all of those details for you.
17:20 Morning, Mihika, what can you tell us?
17:21 Good morning, Alex.
17:22 So, yes, we have NICA.
17:23 Well, despite the revenue and the net profit growth, the profits did miss estimates.
17:28 And revenue was up 18.7%.
17:31 And this was on the back of the gross merchandise value growth
17:35 of 29% on a year-on-year basis.
17:37 EBITDA was up 22%.
17:39 Margins stood at 5.5%, which the company stated could have been at 6.1%
17:44 if it hadn't granted ESOPs during the quarter,
17:47 which led to the margins staying at that range.
17:50 And the company also proved investment of 150 crores in NICA fashion wire rights issue.
17:55 Then we have Zagil Prepaid, where revenues were up 8.28%.
17:59 Margins were up 246 basis points.
18:02 And the net profit was up almost two times at 15.22 crores.
18:07 Now, this was the highest quarterly revenue,
18:09 but the cyclical trend did continue in Q3 owing to higher spends and transactions.
18:14 And the finance cost, there was a significant decrease in finance cost due to the repayment of debt.
18:19 And lastly, we have Navin Foyin, where revenue did miss estimates, but profit did best estimates.
18:26 The revenue was impacted by the slower ramp-up in the HFO plan
18:29 and deferral of campaigns on the back of inventory destocking.
18:33 Right. Thanks, Mihika, for getting us those details.
18:36 Let's turn to another FMCG company then, and that's Nestlé.
18:39 It's going to be reporting its numbers for the fourth quarter today, of course.
18:43 And it is expected that price hikes as well as distribution expansion will drive revenue growth in that quarter.
18:50 Sesha is back to tell you more.
18:52 Sesha, what to focus on with regard to Nestlé?
18:55 Nestlé, they follow a calendar year financial reporting.
18:59 That's why we are saying it's Q4. That's October, December quarter.
19:03 Now, Nestlé India is likely to report a healthy double-digit growth.
19:07 Revenue is seeing up 10.6%. EBITDA is also seeing up 15.3%.
19:15 Margins are expected to expand by 100 basis points at 23.8%.
19:24 Net profit is also seen up at about 18.9%.
19:27 Now, the volume growth is seen in the range of 5% to 6% year on year.
19:33 Nestlé, we must remember, shall be less affected by the rural slowdown due to its lower exposure than other companies.
19:42 Price hikes and distribution expansion in rural is expected to drive the revenue growth.
19:47 The urban nature of Nestlé's portfolio has helped in better absorption of price hikes.
19:53 Demand is expected to remain steady led by out-of-home categories.
19:58 Now, the Maggie market growth is likely to remain under pressure
20:01 because we know that there is immense competition from local noodles brands.
20:07 Again, another key thing to watch out for would be the input costs
20:13 because prices of cocoa, sugar, and wheat are some of the commodities that have inflated year on year.
20:19 However, lower milk costs are likely to aid margins.
20:23 So, we will be watching out for the demand out of rural versus urban trade in the raw material prices,
20:29 competitive intensity as well as the new…
20:33 Got it. Alright. Thanks so much, Sesha, for breaking that down for us.
20:37 Tata Consumer Products is also going to be reporting its third quarter numbers
20:40 and we're likely to see a decline in margins and net profit in the quarter gone by.
20:46 Mahima is joining in to tell you about some of the details there and what the key numbers to watch are.
20:51 Mahima, over to you. Morning. Morning, Alex.
20:53 As you rightly mentioned, Tata Consumer might see a decline in its pattern margins.
20:58 We're expecting that the revenue will grow around 9.7%.
21:01 However, EBITDA and EBITDA margins might come down and net profit might see a decline of approximately 4%.
21:08 Now, this is because demand trends in the consumer staples still remains as a challenging factor
21:15 for companies like Tata Consumers.
21:17 We might see some kind of ease in raw material prices which might aid margins.
21:21 However, as compared to the last quarter year, we might see a bit of dip in terms of margins.
21:26 We might see some kind of operating leverage benefits as well
21:30 and we can expect a mid to single digit volume growth in the F&B business for Tata Consumers.
21:36 So, key things overall to watch out for Tata Consumers will be signs of improvement in rural consumption,
21:42 volume growth and outlook of their international business overall.
21:47 Right. Thanks so much, Mahima, for that.
21:50 Let's turn to Power Grid Corporation of India and it's also expected to come out with its numbers today.
21:55 Remember, the stock has been on a tear.
21:57 Let's get Mihika back to give you some perspective on what to expect.
22:01 Mihika, what can you tell us?
22:03 Yes. The industry is expecting modest revenue growth and profitability to be impacted by higher costs.
22:09 According to Bloomberg estimates, revenues could see a 1.5% year-on-year rise
22:13 while EBITDA could rise marginally by 0.7%.
22:17 But margins are expected to contract at 87% and net profit to just rise maybe 2.3%.
22:25 The main key variable is that the revenue would be supported by buoyant power generation in Q3
22:32 on the surging festive demand according to ELARA.
22:35 Key sector drivers are rising power demand, the incremental renewables additions that has been seen in the market
22:41 and the requirement to add more thermal capacity.
22:44 However, the transmission capex is moving at a slower pace and there is rising competition from the private players.
22:50 Also, key factor is higher transmission costs and also the company has made significant acquisitions
22:56 during the quarter that could have an impact on the balance sheet as well.
23:01 Absolutely. Thanks so much for getting us those details, Mihika.
23:05 You know, it's not something we speak about very often in the morning before the start of trade,
23:10 but also watch out for bond yields.
23:12 In the US, they have come off just a tad bit from the high point of the previous session.
23:17 They ended for the 10-year treasury at around 4.09% overnight.
23:22 In India, the 10-year is currently standing at 7.09%.
23:26 And remember, this is something that will be in focus ahead of the monetary policy meeting outcome
23:31 that will come out tomorrow.
23:33 Of course, in the call money market, you've seen an interesting update where you've seen the call money rate
23:40 fall below the repo rate, which is not something that occurs very often,
23:44 especially in a scenario where over the last few weeks you've had tight liquidity.
23:48 The fact that the call money rate, which is the interbank rate, has fallen below the repo rate
23:53 means that the liquidity in the system is easing just a tad bit.
23:58 But more on that in just a bit.
24:00 Of course, we're setting you up for everything that you need to know before the start of trade in India market open.
24:05 So do stay tuned for that. This is NDTV Profit.
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25:53 [MUSIC PLAYING]
25:56 [MUSIC PLAYING]
26:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]
26:04 [MUSIC PLAYING]
26:08 [MUSIC PLAYING]
26:12 [MUSIC PLAYING]
26:16 [MUSIC PLAYING]
26:21 (upbeat music)
26:24 (upbeat music)
26:26 (upbeat music)
26:39 (upbeat music)
26:42 (upbeat music)
26:44 (upbeat music)