- #SupriyaLifesciences jumps nearly 14% on the back of Q3 results
- #Shalby's management breaks down why they did so well in the quarter gone by
Agam Vakil brings you the bulk and block deal highlights of the day on 'Large Trades'. #NDTVProfitLive
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- #Shalby's management breaks down why they did so well in the quarter gone by
Agam Vakil brings you the bulk and block deal highlights of the day on 'Large Trades'. #NDTVProfitLive
______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
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Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
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TVTranscript
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01:11 - Hello and welcome.
01:24 You're watching Last Trades on NDTV Profit.
01:26 I'm Agarwal Vaquil and in this show,
01:28 we take you through all those stocks
01:29 which are buzzing in trade.
01:31 But before that, a quick look at the markets.
01:33 For now, we are looking at just a little bit
01:36 of weakness coming through
01:37 as far as the benchmarks are concerned.
01:39 But since the RBI monetary policy,
01:41 we have seen largely sideways movement.
01:43 So it is turning out to be a quiet second,
01:46 latter half of the trading session,
01:49 especially given that it is
01:51 the Nifty Weekly Options expiry.
01:53 For now, both the indices are down by around 0.9%,
01:57 by 0.8% to be precise.
01:59 And we haven't seen too much traction
02:01 since the Reserve Bank of India's governor's speech
02:05 on the monetary policy.
02:07 As far as Bank Nifty is concerned,
02:09 it is largely the same moving in tandem with the benchmarks,
02:12 but it is the broader market indices,
02:15 which are in fact, well,
02:16 showing a lot more in terms of traction.
02:19 So you do have the Midcap Index,
02:20 which has advanced in trading in the green
02:23 and the Small Cap Index is largely flattish.
02:25 Our performance there with respect
02:27 to some of the key benchmark indices,
02:29 and even in terms of some of your big movers
02:32 as far as your broader markets go,
02:34 well, a lot of them are in focus on account of earnings.
02:37 In the gainers, we do have something like a Cummins,
02:41 which is up around 7.8%.
02:43 And we'll be talking about that in fact, in this show.
02:46 We also have Trent, which continues to advance today,
02:49 up another 6.4% as we speak.
02:51 And of course, Mankind Pharma is the other one,
02:53 which is also advancing by around 6.5%.
02:56 And on the losing end, we have PTM now,
02:59 which has hit a lower circuit
03:02 after it was our upper circuit yesterday.
03:06 So a lot of topsy-turvy happening.
03:08 And of course, a lot of this was an account
03:09 of the press conference of the Reserve Bank of India,
03:13 which where there were a lot of questions
03:15 and a lot more clarity with respect to
03:18 why the RBI has taken the steps that they have against PTM.
03:23 Besides that, we have a little bit of weakness
03:25 in Dr. Lal Path Labs, which is down around 3.4%.
03:28 And of several other counters,
03:30 which are also buzzing in trade.
03:32 But from there on, we talk about all the counters
03:35 that we wanna talk about in this show.
03:37 We'll be talking about Cummins India, of course,
03:39 which has a shot up.
03:41 We are also covering Wenke's and Cypria Life Sciences.
03:44 These are the three stocks that we wanna cover
03:46 in our show today.
03:47 We start off with Cummins India,
03:49 which came out with surprisingly good numbers.
03:51 And I reckon that this has also surprised the street,
03:54 which is why the stock has advanced by nearly 8%
03:56 as we speak.
03:57 Let's get in my colleague Anushi
03:59 to give us a better understanding of the earnings
04:02 as well as the technical aspects.
04:03 Anushi.
04:04 - Right, so as you correctly mentioned,
04:06 the Q3 results did translate into 10%
04:10 of an intra-day high for Cummins India today.
04:13 Even if you look at the volumes that are up
04:14 by about nine times its 30-day average now.
04:17 So just to recap on the earnings part,
04:21 the revenue EBITDA and the margins also uptake
04:24 with the revenue gaining about 17%.
04:26 Well, this was on the back of the domestic sales,
04:29 which continues to remain the stronger segment.
04:31 But now I want to just to highlight
04:33 what is happening on the export side.
04:35 Export continues to remain a downside
04:38 with about 40% decline in this one.
04:40 So exports contribute about 13% of the mix.
04:44 However, the overall revenue growth continues
04:46 to be strong with about the company expecting
04:49 a double digit growth for the FY24 guidance.
04:53 Now coming to the valuation part,
04:55 if you look at the 3-year PE, that is about 39 times.
05:00 So comparing it to the current PE, that is about 59 times.
05:03 So higher valuation side and mixed sort of reviews
05:06 on the analyst's recommendations.
05:08 But Kotak did come with a report today
05:11 wherein they have upgraded the stock from add to buy now,
05:14 citing the gross margins which are remaining strong
05:17 for the second consecutive stronger at 35%.
05:20 Also the normalization of inventory is one factor
05:23 which they are bullish on that with now the pre-buying
05:27 of inventory over and now the inventory back
05:31 to their normal levels.
05:32 Again, exports, they're seeing some kind
05:34 of a positive momentum with the pickup
05:36 of its CB4 compliant products.
05:40 So definitely a watch out on these basis.
05:42 The stock has gained over 76% in this one year itself.
05:46 - Sure, Anushi, thanks for getting us those updates
05:49 as well as details on Cummins India.
05:51 And from there on, we move and shift focus to Wenkees.
05:55 And that's where we have seen it hit
05:58 and in fact, it's currently trading at an intraday low.
06:01 Let's get in Mehika, who's joining us on the details
06:04 on the stock performance as well
06:05 as the company's third quarter.
06:07 Mehika.
06:07 - Yes, so the stock is at an intraday low of 7.11%
06:11 and has also shown weakness in the past six months.
06:14 It's down about 6%.
06:15 Now volumes are more than 5.6 times as 30 day average
06:18 and the total volume stood at 3.05 lakhs,
06:21 which is around 5% of its total public free flow.
06:24 And the sellers put 2.13 times the buyers.
06:27 Now the dip in pricing was mainly
06:30 because of the quarter three week earnings.
06:33 Revenues are down 8.15% and the company posted
06:36 an EBITDA loss of 7.21 crores
06:39 versus an EBITDA profit a year ago.
06:40 And the company also posted a net loss of 7.94 crores.
06:44 Now what actually went wrong was the revenue degrowth
06:47 in the oil seed segment, which fell 16% year on year.
06:51 It was mainly, the segment was mainly impacted
06:53 because of lower demand and also muted realizations
06:56 from the finished goods part where oil seed is used.
07:00 Otherwise, the poultry segment profit margins
07:02 are also impacted on lower realization.
07:04 The company also did give an update on the expansion project.
07:07 The company is set to open a new manufacturing unit
07:12 in Maharashtra.
07:14 The project is on track and the construction is completed
07:17 and the company expects the government permissions necessary
07:21 to come in by the end of February, Feb, 2024
07:25 and post then the production will start.
07:27 - All right, Mehika, thanks so much
07:28 for getting us those insights into Wenke's.
07:31 Stocks under pressure down 6.5%,
07:33 but it is a significantly volatile counter.
07:36 But from there on, let's talk about Supriya Life Sciences.
07:39 This is a small cap company, which is in focus
07:42 in an on account of a sharp up move coming through.
07:45 We have Varsha now who's joining us,
07:47 who can give us perhaps shed more light here
07:49 as to what's happened, Varsha.
07:51 - Hi, Agam.
07:52 So if you see, stock prices up almost 15% for this company
07:56 and volumes are at 18X, it's 30 day average.
07:59 Now, let's have a little background what this company does.
08:02 So this company manufactures APR,
08:04 that is Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient.
08:06 They have got niche product basket of 38 APIs,
08:10 presence in 86 countries.
08:11 Now, if you see, the stock prices are 15%.
08:14 This is on the back of Q3 earnings,
08:16 which company has posted very nice numbers.
08:19 Revenue was up 33%, but if you see the EBITDA margin
08:22 is at 30% versus 13% last year.
08:25 Now, company had already guided that they have
08:27 almost 20 to 30% of margins in last quarter.
08:32 Now, if you see guidance that was given in Q2 FY24 was,
08:37 they'll maintain an overall revenue growth of 20 to 25%.
08:41 But recently, in one of the business channel,
08:44 they had lowered their guidance and management said,
08:47 conservatively, they are maintaining 15% of revenue guidance.
08:51 Now, if this 15% is taken into consideration,
08:54 next quarter results may be muted.
08:56 But remember, H2 is better than H1 for Supriya.
08:59 So, maybe management is giving a conservative guidance
09:03 and they may make 20 to 25% growth,
09:06 but now we have to see that.
09:08 Also, management maintains margin of 28 to 30% for FY24.
09:12 Now, company did see margins of 40 to 50% in past quarters,
09:17 but due to China effect and China impact,
09:20 now the margins will be around 28 to 30%.
09:23 Also, now the big thing is, now they bet big on its R&D
09:28 to double sale in three years.
09:30 And let's see what it turns out for them.
09:33 - Sure, sure, absolutely.
09:35 Thanks so much for that, Varsha.
09:37 It's a very interesting counter,
09:39 of course, in the small cap space
09:41 and a lot of traction there as well.
09:43 But on that note, it's time to slip into a short break,
09:45 but don't go anywhere.
09:46 On the other side, we get you a lot more management
09:49 in terms of earnings.
09:49 Stay tuned in.
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12:58 - Welcome back.
13:03 It's now time to talk about earnings.
13:05 And we do have those from Shalby Limited,
13:08 whose stock is down at the moment,
13:09 but of course, even as the company has posted its earnings,
13:14 well, we have the management,
13:15 Shanay Shah, President at Shalby,
13:17 who's joining us on the show.
13:18 Shanay, good afternoon.
13:19 Thanks for joining in.
13:21 You know, your operating margins have certainly seen
13:23 a good improvement on a year-on-year basis.
13:25 Revenues, of course, single-digit growth coming through.
13:28 How would you assess this quarter?
13:30 - Yeah, good afternoon, and thank you for having me.
13:36 So we do believe that, you know,
13:38 this quarter has been a good quarter
13:40 and in line with, you know, our expectations.
13:43 We have grown at a 25% level on a year-on-year basis
13:47 on the EBITDA, as well as the profit after tax.
13:51 And, you know, it is a historical year for us,
13:54 because we are going to complete 30 years
13:57 since we founded the organization.
14:00 And also we are going to be crossing 200 crores,
14:03 you know, on EBITDA in this year,
14:07 as well as 100 crores on PAT by end of this year.
14:12 - Okay, so considering it is a milestone year,
14:14 can you give us an idea about your current number of beds,
14:18 operating beds, and what can we expect going forward
14:20 as we move into the next quarter,
14:22 as well as the next financial year?
14:24 - Well, you know, in this fiscal,
14:28 we will be doing about 17, 18% kind of top-line growth
14:32 compared to, in FY24, compared to FY23.
14:36 And we do, we are very confident that we will be doing
14:39 between 20 and 25% top-line growth in the coming year.
14:43 The EBITDA performance has been solid in this year,
14:47 more than 25% on both EBITDA and the PAT levels.
14:50 And we expect that to continue as, you know,
14:52 the operating leverage will continue to kick in.
14:56 In terms of, you know, the capacity, you know,
14:59 we've just added, you know, a hospital.
15:01 We've acquired a hospital in the Delhi-NCR region.
15:04 This will add a total of 180-bed capacity
15:08 to our existing 2,100 beds.
15:10 So this is, you know, a great location on Gulf Coast Road
15:15 and does about 70% of its business
15:19 as international business.
15:20 And that doing most of the high-end specialties,
15:23 such as the bone marrow transplants,
15:26 liver transplants, kidney transplants,
15:28 among other high-end work that they do.
15:30 And also, you know, Shelby itself
15:32 has a very strong presence in the Northern region.
15:34 And with this capacity coming in,
15:37 we will be able to unlock a lot of value, you know,
15:39 because of the credibility that the brand has
15:42 in the Northern region.
15:44 - Can you tell us a little more about the acquisition
15:46 that you made?
15:47 I believe you bought a little over 87%
15:50 in a 130-odd-bed facility.
15:53 Can you tell us about how this can contribute
15:55 to your overall performance?
15:58 - Yeah, so, you know, we have acquired this hospital stake
16:02 at about 100 crores.
16:03 We have acquired 87.2% at 100 crores.
16:08 And essentially, the company has about
16:11 a 45 to 50 crore kind of debt.
16:13 And essentially, at the run rate at which it is going on,
16:18 in the next 12 months, we are looking to do
16:20 about 120 to 150 crores on top line.
16:24 So it's, you know, a good buy for us
16:26 from the value standpoint.
16:28 And we look to unlock value, you know,
16:31 as Shelby will bring its own clientele
16:34 along with the good work that the Sanar Hospital
16:37 has already been doing.
16:39 - Right. Shenay, I believe that you guys
16:40 have had to have some challenges
16:42 when it comes to supply chain,
16:44 which has impacted and hampered, perhaps,
16:47 your performance going in.
16:49 Can you tell us a little more about that
16:51 and how you guys are addressing this?
16:55 - Yeah, so the first half of this year,
16:57 we were kind of hampered with some of the supply chain issues,
17:01 which was not, you know, specific to the company,
17:04 but the industry as a whole.
17:06 And, you know, we are seeing signs of all of that behind us.
17:11 We are very positive for the future.
17:14 We have six new SKUs coming up
17:17 and launching in the next 15 to 18 months.
17:20 Some of our launches, like the TUCs,
17:22 have done extremely well over the last one year,
17:24 and we expect significant growth coming from that.
17:28 And we are building the significant capacity,
17:31 you know, to kind of fuel this growth
17:33 because we will have to build that level of inventory
17:36 to, you know, kind of cater to the new surgeons
17:40 and distributors that we intend to work with.
17:44 - Sure. A final question then.
17:47 Looking forward, if you can also give me an idea
17:50 about the home care business,
17:52 which has also grown by as much as 30% year on year,
17:56 what can you tell us as far as this particular segment goes?
18:00 - Look, so the home care business has shown
18:03 the double-digit growth in terms of, you know,
18:07 the number of patients that we have catered to,
18:09 and it has shown more than 52% growth
18:12 in the top line in this year.
18:14 So, you know, it has grown well,
18:16 and the three big levers for us in this year
18:18 have been physiotherapy and diagnostics
18:22 as well as the pharmaceutical area.
18:25 So these three have been the major drivers for us,
18:28 and we will continue to grow and unlock value here.
18:32 Having said that, the biggest benefit that we get
18:34 because of this is really, you know,
18:36 kind of the stickiness from the patient,
18:39 and, you know, we get a lot of inpatient, outpatient,
18:42 top line in the hospitals
18:44 because of this particular segment.
18:47 - Right. Shalayan, we leave it at that.
18:48 Thank you so much for joining us
18:50 and taking us through the quarter
18:51 as well as the expectations.
18:53 We wish you the best.
18:56 Well, that's the management of Shalby
18:58 telling us about all that is in store going ahead.
19:02 But from there on, we talk about JB Pharma,
19:05 which reported their Q3 earnings as well,
19:07 and the net profit surged as much as 26%.
19:10 My colleague, Mona, spoke to Nikhil Chopra,
19:13 the CEO and the whole-time director at the company.
19:16 This is what he had to say. Listen in.
19:19 - This was one of the peak margins
19:21 in the last three years that we could demonstrate
19:24 in our operating business.
19:26 And the reason behind this margin that we could achieve
19:31 was a mix of many things.
19:34 What we have been trying to do in India business,
19:36 which is contributing over 53% of the revenue,
19:39 is towards the entire chronic part of the business,
19:42 particularly in chronic,
19:44 when I'm talking in the field of cardiology,
19:47 within that cardiology, hypertension, heart failure,
19:49 lipid-lowering medicines.
19:52 That is what we are trying to do,
19:53 which is helping us with good gross margins.
19:56 And secondly, also there is a robust efficiency program
20:00 that we are running in the company over the last three years,
20:03 be it productivity in the field,
20:05 be it efficiency and better bed sizes
20:10 in our manufacturing plants, better vendor management.
20:13 All aspects of efficiency,
20:14 that is what we are trying to achieve,
20:16 which only helps us to reinvest in the business.
20:19 And overall, the trajectory that we have seen
20:23 in our CDMO business is also helping us
20:26 with better gross margins.
20:27 And last but not the least is the haircut
20:29 that we have taken in our South Africa business,
20:32 which was more public-driven,
20:34 is also helping us in terms of better gross margins
20:37 and better EBITDA margins.
20:39 So this is where we stand.
20:40 In terms of guidance, if I have to talk about,
20:42 we have been guiding for our EBITDA margins,
20:46 ranging between 25 to 27%,
20:49 and touchwood, our EBITDA margins for nine months
20:52 are close to 27.8%.
20:54 So we will continue to guide our EBITDA margins
20:57 between 25 to 27% for the coming year also,
21:00 because there are a couple of pain points
21:03 that we are seeing in the business.
21:04 And as everybody's aware about the Red Sea issue,
21:07 and equally some of the API process also going up
21:09 and delays in shipping.
21:11 So keeping in mind, we continue to guide
21:13 for 25 to 27% EBITDA margin.
21:17 - Sure, sir.
21:18 So if I were to just understand,
21:20 what is the share of chronic
21:21 in the whole of domestic business versus acute?
21:23 And is this proportion going to be the same?
21:27 Are we looking at moving more towards chronic?
21:30 How is the product mix going to be?
21:31 - Very good question, Monal.
21:35 In terms of that is the agenda
21:36 which we are looking at in India business.
21:39 A chronic part of the business today
21:40 is contributing 52% of the revenue at JB.
21:44 But if you look at Indian pharma market,
21:47 which is $25 billion market,
21:49 the chronic contribution within that is close to 40%.
21:53 Coming back to JB,
21:57 the roadmap that we are putting in place
21:58 is to take chronic contribution to as high as 60%.
22:03 With existing portfolio that we have bought
22:05 within CardioSpace, what we are trying to do.
22:08 And there are some also niche products
22:09 that we have in the field of nephrology.
22:11 And a couple of products in the field of metabolics
22:13 that will only help us
22:15 in terms of improving our cardio share.
22:18 When we look at chronic space,
22:21 what we keep in mind is not only generating revenues,
22:26 the long-term agenda is how do you
22:29 at least care for the patients,
22:31 look at how do they lead better quality of life,
22:34 early diagnosis, better quality of medicine,
22:39 affordable access.
22:40 All this has been kept in mind,
22:42 driving better adherence, reducing burden of disease.
22:45 That is a long-term agenda that we are looking at.
22:49 How do you serve more and more number of patients
22:52 with the quality medicines
22:53 which are coming from the house of JB.
22:55 And ultimately, you can drive better revenues.
22:59 That is how the balance between a humanitarian approach
23:03 and a commercial approach
23:04 that is what we are trying to keep in.
23:07 Sure, sure.
23:09 So this is another question just for understanding.
23:12 When we look at margins of a chronic portfolio
23:15 versus an acute portfolio,
23:17 are they almost at par?
23:18 Or how is the margin profile for these two therapies?
23:23 Well, obviously the chronic portfolio margins are better,
23:26 but I will not be able to detail it.
23:29 But the margins in chronic are better.
23:31 And one more thing which happens in the chronic space is
23:34 as many of the, as 50-60% of the population
23:36 who are taking medicines, they adhere to medicines.
23:39 So there is a refill business
23:40 which also helps you in long-term.
23:41 But the competition in the market is stiff.
23:45 If you look at cardiology market,
23:48 which is a $3 billion market in India,
23:52 three years ago, we were 13th ranked player
23:55 and we were covering 40% of the cardiology market.
23:59 In three years, the journey that we have traveled
24:01 with our organic big brands like Silacar, Nicardia
24:05 only becoming big, gaining market share,
24:07 and also the couple of acquisitions
24:09 that we have done in heart failure
24:10 and lipid lowering pill,
24:12 today we are covering 90% of the market
24:14 and we are from 13th ranked company,
24:16 today we are 8th ranked company
24:18 and we are the fastest growing company today
24:19 in cardiology space in the country.
24:22 And that is all that we have for this edition of Large Trades.
24:25 But don't go anywhere on the other side.
24:27 We get you India, markets closed.
24:28 Stay tuned to NDTV Profit.
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35:48 Aditya, I'm not going to spend too much time on the policy.
35:51 But what is happening in FMCG, in your opinion?
35:54 Is the disappointment stemming from earnings?
35:57 Or is there more to it?
35:59 Is it just healthy profit-taking that we're seeing?
36:01 Because stocks like Britannia, Tata Consumer, ITC, of course,
36:04 is news-based, are all down 4% to 5% each.
36:09 The perspective really is all the stocks that you've talked about,
36:12 they're really very highly valued.
36:14 And a little bit of disappointment on the earnings
36:16 is triggering the sell-off, per se.
36:19 So in my opinion, in good names, it's an opportunity to buy.
36:24 We've seen likes of Trent coming out with their results yesterday.
36:29 And they were a fabulous set of numbers that they have posted.
36:32 One common thing with the FMCG space that you really need to check is
36:36 the valuations will be extremely aggressive.
36:38 And they have been extremely aggressive for a couple of years.
36:41 So the perspective is slow growth together with high valuation
36:45 is a recipe for slow returns in the near term.
36:49 So in my opinion, selectively, you can buy companies like ITC,
36:55 companies like Trent, or companies like Tata Consumer
36:58 where longer-term visibility is still there.
37:02 There you can go ahead.
37:03 Otherwise, you have to wait and watch.
37:05 Sure, Aditya.
37:07 Aditya, we did hear from Jai, who spoke about banks.
37:12 I think you track banks extremely closely.
37:16 How are you viewing the sector as a whole,
37:19 especially given the fact that there are rate cuts probably on the anvil?
37:23 No commentary yet on that, but they're probably not too far away.
37:28 So how do you view it, public versus private?
37:31 So, Harsh, we've spoken about this before as well.
37:35 We are entering into the second leg of credit up cycle.
37:39 and in the second leg of credit up cycle
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