- #Sensex, #Nifty fall post #RBIPolicy
- #PowerGrid, #Paytm in focus
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #PowerGrid, #Paytm in focus
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
00:00:00 526 points lower, 1% cut on Bank Nifty is what we have.
00:00:04 The Nifty and the Sensex itself are looking quite pain.
00:00:07 220 points off on the Nifty, the Sensex trades the cut of 750 points.
00:00:11 So if the Bulls and Bears were struggling to hold on to levels,
00:00:15 the Bears of course having their field day or day in the sun
00:00:18 after the Governor pretty much stayed on his stance
00:00:22 and of course did not comment very much on liquidity either.
00:00:25 Well, that's the broader market.
00:00:26 The outperformance across the broader market continues in today's trade as well.
00:00:30 The Nifty Mid Cap trades with a marginal gain of 70 points.
00:00:33 The Small Cap Index though on the other hand trading with a cut of 24 points.
00:00:37 Well, beyond the macros, the bigger focus on the street was all about earnings
00:00:42 and the large part of the broader markets were reacting
00:00:45 on back of either good numbers or bad numbers.
00:00:47 But let's take a quick look at what's happening on the Nifty 50 first.
00:00:50 The breadth of the market is very clearly biased towards the downside.
00:00:54 You've got a whole lot of losers for a very few handful of gainers in today's trade.
00:00:59 Well, Britannia posted numbers that the street was disappointed with yesterday.
00:01:03 Saw some selling pressure in trade yesterday.
00:01:04 The selling continues into today as well down about 5%.
00:01:08 Well, ITC at the day's low point, 4.6% lower.
00:01:11 The reason is that there are reports on the wires that BAT,
00:01:15 which is British Tobacco is looking to pass stake in ITC.
00:01:18 We'll try and get more on that from an analyst and what it really means for the stock too.
00:01:23 Nestle again, post earnings weak.
00:01:25 FMCG as a whole pack really has been having a down day from the get-go in early trade.
00:01:30 Along with that, Tata Consumers, I'm not sure why the street is disappointed,
00:01:34 but the numbers on Tata Consumers table weren't actually too bad.
00:01:37 They've seen growth across most segments.
00:01:39 They had an exceptional item on their profits,
00:01:42 largely on back of the acquisition costs that had to be absorbed by the company.
00:01:46 UPL looks weak.
00:01:47 IBank, banks like we said are also trading much lower.
00:01:50 Through the first part of the day, it was the public sector banks that were gaining.
00:01:53 And in fact, SPI single-handedly was holding the markets and the Bank Nifty together.
00:01:58 Still gains and does well in trade, 4.5% higher is what we have.
00:02:02 But unfortunately, the other banking names are seeing selling pressure
00:02:05 and that is what is taking Bank Nifty lower.
00:02:09 Power Grid, markets like those earnings, the stock is up 4.2%.
00:02:13 OMCs continue the rally in trade today.
00:02:15 Remember a few days ago, you also had a report by Morgan Stanley saying a re-rating
00:02:19 in this space is very likely and on back of which your BP sale looks good,
00:02:23 Coal India looks good.
00:02:24 Interestingly, HCL Tech is also seeing some buying.
00:02:27 TCS is looking okay.
00:02:29 Auto is also pretty much having a flat day.
00:02:31 But Harsh, I think the day belongs to SPI.
00:02:35 And on the downside, FMCG is getting whacked and don't know why
00:02:39 because some of those numbers were not actually that disappointing.
00:02:41 Well, yes, absolutely.
00:02:43 So it's an earnings, you know, it's an earning focused kind of a day
00:02:49 when I'm looking at stock specific actions.
00:02:52 And that's correctly put up by you.
00:02:54 Let me quickly take it to some big earnings which came out.
00:02:57 You look at the likes of a Cummins, a strong set of numbers.
00:03:00 Stock is doing quite well in trade.
00:03:02 Power Grid as well.
00:03:05 Margins going up from around 87 to 88.5% and that one is also flying away in trade.
00:03:10 The likes of an EPL as well, up 2% on the back of numbers.
00:03:14 Some counters which didn't do so well on the back of numbers.
00:03:19 Again, you look at the likes of an Ashok Leeland.
00:03:21 That one, Tata Consumer seems to be lower by almost 3%.
00:03:26 Samina touched upon that.
00:03:28 Greaves Cotton, Soba are some of the other names which are having a mixed kind of day.
00:03:35 Soba doing badly, but Greaves Cotton doing fairly well after a good set of numbers.
00:03:39 You also have HMA Agro and Ratan India, both of which also declared numbers and were buzzing
00:03:45 at least on the back of numbers.
00:03:47 Some taper with regard to that buzz.
00:03:48 In terms of other stocks, other counters which are buzzing on the back of news, you have
00:03:53 the likes of a Paytm down 10, TRF up 20% second consecutive day and ITC is down 5%.
00:04:00 Samina touched upon that as well.
00:04:02 Back to you, Samina.
00:04:03 Interesting afternoon. The broader markets, of course, weak on back of a little bit of
00:04:08 disappointment in terms of what the Reserve Bank of India did, even though they played
00:04:13 the part, remain status quo on rates.
00:04:16 That was 100% consents when no expectations were on the rate.
00:04:20 There was a little bit of hope that the tone of commentary would change or sound a little
00:04:24 more dovish and there may have potentially been a change of stance.
00:04:29 But the Governor pretty much making it clear that none of those parameters will be changed
00:04:34 in the foreseeable future.
00:04:36 And they also talked about the fact that liquidity is being managed because the RBI is very nimble
00:04:42 when it comes to that.
00:04:43 FMCG is seeing weakness.
00:04:45 You can attribute it to earnings.
00:04:46 You can attribute it to the fact that rural demand has largely been weak and the markets
00:04:51 don't seem too happy.
00:04:52 Or you can simply put it down to the fact that there have been no rate cuts and FMCG
00:04:57 or any sort of sectors that will get a bump up on back of lower rates is seeing some selling.
00:05:03 But let's move the focus back on to the technicals of the street.
00:05:07 Jai Bala, Founder and Chief Market Technician of Cash the Chaos joins in.
00:05:11 And we also got Aditya Shah, founder of Hercules Advisors.
00:05:15 Hi Jai.
00:05:16 Afternoon.
00:05:17 It's an interesting date.
00:05:19 The market spent quite a bit of time consolidating.
00:05:21 The wicks had also come off a little bit.
00:05:24 Some parameters were all indicating to that there would not be too much downside pressure.
00:05:29 What we are seeing right now post policy is some weakness.
00:05:32 The street is down.
00:05:33 Nifty is down about a percent.
00:05:35 Good time to buy you think or go long?
00:05:37 Good afternoon, Samina.
00:05:41 My opinion is slightly different.
00:05:43 And if you see the price action of the markets for the last several sessions, it's been trying
00:05:48 to close above 21.950 and that's getting rejected.
00:05:51 It's trying to close below 21.350.
00:05:54 That's getting rejected.
00:05:55 My sense is that this market wants to cool off and it's trying to get lower from here.
00:06:01 And we just need markets to confirm that it is heading lower.
00:06:05 21.661, the market is about 21.698 now.
00:06:09 If 21.661, that gets printed now, that will be the early warning sign that this market
00:06:16 is trying to weaken.
00:06:17 But we want the markets to close below 21.460.
00:06:22 That will be a confirmation that this market is considerably trying to cool off, predominantly
00:06:27 due to weakness from the banking index, which has been a rank underperformer for several
00:06:31 months now.
00:06:32 Aditya, I'm not going to spend too much time on the policy, but what is happening in FMCG
00:06:38 in your opinion?
00:06:39 Is the disappointment stemming from earnings or is there more to it?
00:06:43 Is it just healthy profit taking that we are seeing?
00:06:45 Because stocks like Britannia, Tata Consumer, ITC, of course, is news based, are all down
00:06:50 4 to 5% each.
00:06:51 From the perspective, really, is all the stocks that you've talked about, they're really very
00:06:57 highly valued.
00:06:58 And a little bit of disappointment on the earnings is triggering the sell-off, per se.
00:07:03 So in my opinion, in good names, it's an opportunity to buy.
00:07:08 We've seen likes of Trent coming out with their results yesterday and they were fabulous
00:07:14 set of numbers that they have posted.
00:07:16 One common thing with the FMCG space that you really need to check is the valuations
00:07:21 will be extremely aggressive and they have been extremely aggressive for a couple of
00:07:25 years now.
00:07:26 So the perspective is slow growth together with high valuation is a recipe for slow returns
00:07:32 in the near term.
00:07:33 So in my opinion, selectively, you can buy companies like ITC, companies like Trent,
00:07:41 or companies like Tata Consumer where longer term visibility is still there.
00:07:46 There you can go ahead.
00:07:47 Otherwise, you have to wait and watch.
00:07:50 Sure, Aditya.
00:07:51 Aditya, we did hear from Jai who spoke about banks.
00:07:56 I think you track banks extremely closely.
00:08:01 How are you viewing the sector as a whole, especially given the fact that there are rate
00:08:05 cuts probably on the anvil?
00:08:08 No commentary yet on that, but they're probably not too far away.
00:08:13 So how do you view it public versus private?
00:08:16 So, Harsh, we've spoken about this before as well.
00:08:19 We are entering into the second leg of credit up cycle.
00:08:23 And in the second leg of credit up cycle, the quality banks will start to perform much
00:08:28 better as the asset quality continues to improve for them.
00:08:32 And the banks where the underwriting processes are not very stringent are the ones who will
00:08:36 start to struggle now.
00:08:38 We've seen the RBI already gone on the unsecured side of it.
00:08:42 And we've also seen some banks report some bit of slippages on the unsecured side.
00:08:47 So in my opinion, the party of the PSU banks where they have outperformed the private sector
00:08:51 banks over the last six months to one year, six months, about one and a half years, that
00:08:56 will slowly start to abate.
00:08:58 Good private sector banks where the asset quality would stay intact as the credit cycle
00:09:05 continues to move up are the ones to watch out for, in my opinion.
00:09:09 Also, similarly, on the NBFC side of it, the quality NBFCs will continue to do really well.
00:09:16 And the smaller NBFCs, again, will have asset quality issues.
00:09:19 So in the markets, nothing is permanent in nature.
00:09:23 The first leg of re-rating of PSU banks is now complete.
00:09:27 Now we will move on to the second leg of re-rating of these banks, second leg of credit cycle
00:09:32 where good quality banks will start to perform.
00:09:35 And mind you not to say SBI is not very high quality.
00:09:38 SBI is also a very high quality franchise.
00:09:41 So you need to selectively look at PSU banks.
00:09:44 But top private sector banks which have not done anything over the last three, three and
00:09:48 a half, four years could be the top bets for me in 2024 and 2025 as the credit cycle continues
00:09:53 to move up.
00:09:54 We have earnings as well from Apollo.
00:09:57 On the top line, there's a slight improvement.
00:09:59 On the profitability, there's a dip.
00:10:01 We will come back to that in a minute.
00:10:03 But I just want to quickly take a look at how these insurance companies are doing.
00:10:06 They were looking very well placed yesterday and for most part of trade today as well.
00:10:11 LIC is still up 8%.
00:10:13 New India Assurance is looking good.
00:10:15 GIC is having a good day.
00:10:19 Most of those insurance names really.
00:10:20 Jay, you want to comment on it technically on the charts?
00:10:23 Would you go long on any of those insurance stocks or for that matter even go short and
00:10:27 you know on expectation that there would be some profit taking?
00:10:31 The insurance space is a little bit mixed and we need context here.
00:10:37 And LIC is leading from the front.
00:10:39 And that is a considerable movement in New India Assurance.
00:10:43 These are the two names that I like from the public sector insurance space.
00:10:49 But if you look at the private sector insurance space, most of them are in a counter-tentrally
00:10:55 like HTFC Life, SBI Life.
00:10:57 They are all in a, I'm sorry, ICICI approved, they are all on a counter-tentrally.
00:11:04 So if you want to buy that up, you are better off focusing on LIC and New India Assurance.
00:11:09 But New India Assurance, I'm telling you, is probably reaching an exhaustion level.
00:11:14 But be careful here.
00:11:16 But in the private sector space, in the insurance sector, you want to do something, it's ICICI
00:11:21 and Lombard.
00:11:23 That's looking like it's got further upsides to work with.
00:11:26 So that is looking interesting for me.
00:11:27 Other than that, I will keep the rest of the insurance rally as a counter-tent bounce.
00:11:33 So avoid the other names within the life insurance space, except LIC, New India Assurance and
00:11:40 ICICI Lombard.
00:11:41 Got your point, Jay.
00:11:43 Aditya, if I can have your views very quickly on this, I'm short on time.
00:11:48 With regard to the likes of some of these insurers, General Insurance, New India Assurance,
00:11:54 some of these names have really run up.
00:11:56 Your views, maybe two, three key reasons which you feel why some of these have really re-rated.
00:12:02 See, LIC was trading at below its embedded value and that was the real reason why LIC
00:12:10 stock has moved up.
00:12:12 Now it is trading at a premium to its embedded value and slowly and steadily it will settle
00:12:18 down somewhere in the one and a half, two times the embedded value.
00:12:21 That is my guess on the LIC stock.
00:12:23 I will say yesterday in the Parliament Committee, there was a recommendation that on General
00:12:30 Insurance, particularly health insurance, the GST rate should be rationalized from about
00:12:34 18% to a lower rate.
00:12:37 So that was the real reason why all of these stocks were really rallying out, that rationalization
00:12:42 of GST on these insurers would be there.
00:12:46 And also the government has also, the Parliament Committee has also recommended that Ayushman
00:12:53 Bharat should be extended to a lot more people in this country.
00:12:57 So that was the whole criteria that health insurance penetration will start to move up
00:13:00 in this country.
00:13:01 However, these are very long term stories and will not happen in the shortest period
00:13:06 of time.
00:13:07 But health insurance and general insurance, both of them are sunrise industries and must
00:13:12 have in the court.
00:13:13 Understood.
00:13:14 I am going to quickly go over to another one which is in focus today, Paytm.
00:13:18 We had the RBI monetary policy and I had very little doubt that the Governor would be quizzed
00:13:26 on everything that is happening around Paytm.
00:13:28 The stock now at flat line, lower circuit.
00:13:32 Now I want to try and bring out a few points which the Governor and the Deputy Governor
00:13:36 Swaminathan put across.
00:13:38 What they said was this was supervisory action for persistent non-compliance.
00:13:44 They also suggested on a no-name basis that generally action which is taken in this regard
00:13:50 is post years of bilateral engagement and the emphasis is always on keeping engagement
00:13:57 on.
00:13:58 But if deficiencies are not repaired despite time given, they said that they have to continue
00:14:04 to take into account the best interest of systemic stability and protection of customers
00:14:11 and due to which they have had to take some of these actions with regard to Paytm as well.
00:14:16 Now they have suggested that generally they take their time to engage with entities before
00:14:22 you know really acting upon it in this fashion.
00:14:27 But they are going to issue some FAQs which will hopefully clear the air especially from
00:14:32 a customer and consumer standpoint for Paytm users.
00:14:36 While we await that, also what they clarified was that they are not against fintechs.
00:14:43 So I want to go straight to Aditya because I know he has certain views with regard to
00:14:48 Paytm and Aditya I will try to play devil's advocate here.
00:14:52 You know Paytm roughly 30,000 maybe now sub 30,000 crore in market cap, 8,000 odd crore
00:14:59 in terms of its current assets, cash balances plus receivables etc.
00:15:07 At what point does this start looking good to you?
00:15:11 See Harsh, there are a couple of things that we need to clear out first.
00:15:14 It's not about fintech or it's not about banks.
00:15:17 Whenever RBI sees non-compliance, RBI acts and RBI has acted before.
00:15:22 So what the RBI governor has clearly said today is after engaging with Paytm for multiple
00:15:29 number of months, they have found that the compliance standards have not improved and
00:15:34 that's why they have taken this regulatory action.
00:15:36 Apart from the market cap of 30,000 crore, the important thing to really understand right
00:15:40 now is what happens to the existing Paytm business.
00:15:44 Does the RBI want Paytm to completely shut down its payments business or the RBI wants
00:15:50 the payments business to continue with some other banks or the RBI wants some other bank
00:15:56 to take over Paytm's payments business.
00:15:59 These are some crucial answers that the RBI needs to come out with and Paytm needs to
00:16:03 really answer.
00:16:05 On top of this, the Paytm management has also said that they are going to stop loan growth
00:16:09 until clarity emerges.
00:16:11 So in my opinion, a normal retail investor who does not like to take too much of risk
00:16:18 should wait for clarity about how the Paytm business model is going to evolve towards
00:16:23 this regulatory action.
00:16:25 Those who are speculators, who are punters, they would start to look at a market cap of
00:16:31 10,000 crores or something like that.
00:16:33 But if you were to ask me, I will not speculate right now because there is too much of non-clarity
00:16:40 from the regulator, from the company itself about how are they going to evolve going forward.
00:16:44 So if the business is not very clear and you are speculating on the stock price, it's just
00:16:49 pure play gambling in my opinion.
00:16:51 So wait it out, RBI will come out with clarity about what they want Paytm to really do.
00:16:57 And from there on, you have to take a guess.
00:16:59 In my opinion, you must not speculate right now at this stage.
00:17:03 Let the stock price settle down and let the circuits get opened up so that if you want
00:17:09 an exit, you can get an exit as well.
00:17:13 Stay with us.
00:17:14 In fact, here's what Deputy Governor Swaminathan J had to say about Paytm's situation at the
00:17:19 MPC press conference.
00:17:20 Let's listen to that while we take a break.
00:17:23 As a regulator, we have various tools in the kitty and it's not necessary that every single
00:17:30 tool will be deployed in every single situation.
00:17:33 That we make our own assessment to the scale and proportionate of the issue as well as
00:17:39 the tool that we will have to use at different points in time.
00:17:42 So one size fits all kind of solution may not work in such situations.
00:17:46 So I would like to stop there rather than trying to elaborate on that.
00:17:51 We may use certain tools, may not use certain tools, but it is after a due consideration
00:17:57 that we do.
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00:34:36 All right, welcome back.
00:34:53 You're watching India Market Close here on IDTV Profit.
00:34:56 I'm going to quickly take it back across to Nitin and
00:34:58 cover one of the pieces that we spoke of earlier on the show.
00:35:02 Nitin, we spoke about ITC.
00:35:06 You suggested how valuations were comfortable there in comparison to some
00:35:10 of the other stocks.
00:35:11 Now, Trent came out with a very solid set of numbers earlier this week.
00:35:15 Stock was up in a way.
00:35:17 And we also had the likes of a data consumer.
00:35:19 Decent set, in fact, slightly better, but the stock doing nothing in trade today.
00:35:25 How should one look at FMCG and how do you view valuations?
00:35:28 >> So I think FMCG stocks are not cheap, but
00:35:35 they've traditionally been looked upon as defensives.
00:35:38 And in a market which traditionally would be volatile or is bear market.
00:35:48 Given that scenario, I mean, currently we are in a market which is focusing and
00:35:54 rewarding growth, which is also seeing a lot of sectoral rotation that seems to be
00:35:59 taking place from one sector to the other.
00:36:01 I think it's not, unless and until there is a clear trigger,
00:36:05 like we've seen the case of a couple of FMCG players, where the results.
00:36:09 Otherwise, most of the FMCG players are seeing a slowdown as far as the rural
00:36:14 market is concerned.
00:36:16 And hence, really we believe that from a stock price and
00:36:19 value perspective and the growth perspective,
00:36:24 they really do not present great opportunities in the short term.
00:36:28 >> Your top trades right now, anything that looks tempting to go short on?
00:36:35 Jay, that was for you.
00:36:39 >> Okay, see, FMCG, I'm sure you're talking about the whole market.
00:36:46 When it comes to bearish setup, I'm liking Wipro at this level.
00:36:50 Wipro clocked a high on January 15th, and a couple of sessions ago,
00:36:55 it's clocked a lower top and it started to move lower.
00:36:58 This is looking like a start of a down move for me, for Wipro.
00:37:03 So places stop above 505 and look for a drop towards 440 to 410.
00:37:08 There is a slightly higher risk shorting opportunity in Adani ports.
00:37:15 So you're better off looking at it through puts, so
00:37:19 that way your risks are controlled.
00:37:21 So I'm looking at Adani not crossing 1292, hence that might be the stop.
00:37:26 And a position, I mean, a target about 1,089 is what I'm seeing as a short
00:37:31 term corrective move for Adani.
00:37:33 These are the stocks that are looking short for me.
00:37:37 >> Nitin, what we saw with today's policy, I mean, it wasn't disappointing,
00:37:43 because I think our expectations are also very controlled going into this policy.
00:37:48 But very soon after the policy happened,
00:37:51 you saw a whole bunch of banks actually sell off.
00:37:54 Now, barring SPI and maybe PNB, the rest of the banking pack was looking weak.
00:37:59 How do you feel about banks at this stage?
00:38:01 Are you constructive on banks?
00:38:03 And if yes, between private and PSU, where would you put your bets?
00:38:08 >> So I think if you look at banks,
00:38:13 they're really seeing more of a liquidity driven sell off.
00:38:17 Because FPIs have actually been big sellers.
00:38:21 And if you see the FPI holding in banks,
00:38:23 it's come down dramatically from over 30% that they were holding.
00:38:27 So I think liquidity pressure continues to exert itself in terms of selling that we
00:38:31 see in the sector.
00:38:33 But that's not the case with PSUs.
00:38:34 And PSUs, by the way, were under owned in the FPI basket.
00:38:38 So hence, you probably saw they've continued to do well.
00:38:42 So I think banking is a case where we are positive on the sector.
00:38:47 We think valuations in the sector are very attractive.
00:38:51 There is a short term challenge which most banks are facing.
00:38:56 Because we have seen peak margins for the banks in the last one year.
00:39:02 And now as liquidity has been tight in the system, what are we seeing?
00:39:06 We are seeing a scenario where the public sector banks,
00:39:10 which are sitting on surplus liquidity, and
00:39:14 also have an ability to sort of garner deposits.
00:39:18 And the whole credit deposit ratio is far better for public sector banks.
00:39:22 So in the short term, we see the PSU banks doing well.
00:39:27 I think in the longer term, I think the private sector banks are going to come
00:39:30 back because the more they're getting sold into from a valuation perspective,
00:39:33 they're becoming even more attractive.
00:39:34 >> Got your point there, Nitin.
00:39:39 It's that time of the show where we get you all the F&O queues that have come
00:39:43 through the day, as well as how we're looking at some of the futures and
00:39:47 options data.
00:39:48 And I have Agam standing by.
00:39:50 Agam, talk to us about what you're looking at.
00:39:53 >> Right, so a very, very interesting day being panned out today.
00:39:56 And it's certainly a very choppy first half of the session.
00:39:59 After that, we've had a relative quiet as far as the markets go.
00:40:04 But the Nifty has come off by nearly 1%, currently around the mark of 21,700.
00:40:10 Remember, this is a little bit of an important point,
00:40:13 at least in the last three or four sessions.
00:40:16 It's 21,700, which have now become a little bit of a base,
00:40:20 at least in the near term.
00:40:22 We're still seeing an increase in open interest towards what
00:40:25 potentially looks like shorts at the moment, up around 3.6%.
00:40:29 The Bank Nifty, of course, is the other space where we have seen even more
00:40:33 weakness, down around 1.7%.
00:40:35 And remember, despite the fact that we have seen the PSU rally,
00:40:40 of course, there are not a lot of PSU banks in the Nifty Banking Index as a whole,
00:40:45 which is why we're seeing that weakness come through.
00:40:48 A lot of this is on account of Kotak Mahindra,
00:40:50 which is also declining substantially in trade today.
00:40:53 And now we're near 7% added in open interest as far as shorts go in
00:40:57 the Bank Nifty.
00:40:59 Now let's talk about the options market.
00:41:01 And as I was mentioning earlier, we were seeing a lot of writing around 21,700 puts.
00:41:08 As far as that particular strike goes, well, we've really seen the markets test that.
00:41:15 It's very unlikely that we will close below this mark.
00:41:18 Of course, we have 15 more minutes left.
00:41:20 And highly likely that we will close somewhere around 21,800 and 21,700.
00:41:24 In today's job trade, that's where the expiry is most likely to end.
00:41:28 Of course, in terms of change in open interest, as one might expect,
00:41:32 a little more writing as far as calls go.
00:41:35 In fact, a lot of traders took the opportunity to go and sell the 22,000 calls
00:41:40 very earlier on in the trade and earlier on in the day.
00:41:44 This is before the RBI monetary policy, and they have been paid handsomely well.
00:41:49 On the other hand, all the put writers, well,
00:41:51 they had to, to a certain extent, run for cover,
00:41:54 especially after the speech had ended.
00:41:57 Let's take a look at stocks then and see how things are panning out there.
00:42:00 And we are looking at Lupin, PI Industries, and Power Grid.
00:42:04 All of them are looking at longs building in.
00:42:07 And in terms of all the stocks which are seeing unwinding, well,
00:42:10 we have a bout of longs unwinding in Maruti Suzuki, Delta Corp,
00:42:15 SAIL, as well as Barrampucini.
00:42:17 So keep an eye on that.
00:42:18 And of course, now that the big event is behind us,
00:42:22 there is a contraction in option premiums as far as the index is concerned as well.
00:42:26 So that is something that we need to keep in mind.
00:42:28 That said, tomorrow is the final trading day of this week,
00:42:31 and which has been a very volatile one as well.
00:42:33 But we likely could see a little more traction tomorrow too.
00:42:37 - Or you could see a market that may be missing and lacking cues,
00:42:40 so may actually turn out to be fairly sideways.
00:42:43 But Zomato reported numbers just a few minutes ago.
00:42:45 We will get our research to cover that for you in a minute.
00:42:50 Numbers are actually looking really good.
00:42:52 The stock is up 5% on back of that,
00:42:54 but we'll come back to that in a minute.
00:42:56 Aditya, have you been tracking Trent?
00:42:58 I mean, this one is probably one of the best stock performers in our time.
00:43:04 Last year as well, outstanding, earnings were fantastic.
00:43:08 And now the stock, only in the last two to three days is up 30%.
00:43:12 Even at these levels, do you think there's enough value in Trent?
00:43:16 - So Trent is undergoing a massive transformation.
00:43:19 We call always known Trent as the best sides of the world.
00:43:23 But now they have got a separate brand, which is called Zudio,
00:43:26 where you can value buy in a very organized manner.
00:43:33 So Zudio is really driving the 50% growth that Trent has really reported.
00:43:38 We have been tracking this stock for the last one, one and a half years,
00:43:42 and we are seeing how Zudio is being ramped up by Trent.
00:43:46 So my perspective is this growth should continue for Trent.
00:43:50 However, the stock is extremely, extremely expensive,
00:43:53 and one should be really very careful if they want to take a new entry on this stock.
00:43:58 If somebody has this stock, then you should continue to ride this up
00:44:01 and that Trent is really making.
00:44:03 But for new entry, the stock remains really very, very expensive.
00:44:09 - So I got your point, Aditya.
00:44:10 We also have some ATOS numbers, if we can quickly have that on our screens.
00:44:14 But let's have a look at the stock price.
00:44:16 That's up and away.
00:44:18 And there you go, your EBITDA number has come in at 51 crore
00:44:21 versus a loss of 101 crore.
00:44:23 That is slightly above, or rather quite a bit above,
00:44:28 what the street was anticipating.
00:44:30 Even in terms of the profit after tax, the consensus suggested 86 crore profit after tax.
00:44:35 It's come in sharply higher, 138 crore.
00:44:38 So definitely it's done quite well.
00:44:41 Even the revenue number is slightly better than most were expecting.
00:44:45 3200 crore, we were expecting a number of around 3100 crore.
00:44:49 So around 3 to 4% better even on that revenue count.
00:44:52 And Zomato doing well on the back of that.
00:44:56 Let me come across to Nitin with regard to Zomato as well as Paytm.
00:45:01 If I can club the two, of course, you know, apples and oranges.
00:45:06 But Nitin, talk to us about some of these fintech plays.
00:45:09 Any ones that interest you in particular?
00:45:13 So, you know, I think if you look at fintechs,
00:45:17 what are we seeing in the last one year?
00:45:19 A lot of them have gone back to the drawing board,
00:45:22 worked on their business models and come back.
00:45:25 Now, among some of the, one of the key elements that, you know,
00:45:28 however, the episodes that we have seen in the last few weeks and before have shown,
00:45:33 is that in a lot of these companies, corporate governance is yet an evolving issue.
00:45:37 So you have this evolving business model,
00:45:41 evolving sort of corporate governance, which is not at the peak.
00:45:46 So, you know, we don't see too much of value,
00:45:50 although some of these business models might succeed going ahead,
00:45:54 but then you could also be, you have to be ready for the kind of volatility
00:45:58 that we saw associated with the fintech name last week.
00:46:01 So I think we are sort of cautious towards that.
00:46:06 We like the sector from a perspective of,
00:46:09 we think these are new business models which are evolving,
00:46:12 which are here to stay, which are going to be disruptive.
00:46:15 However, we don't think some of the names which are listed necessarily present value.
00:46:22 Right, Nitin. Great having you on the show today,
00:46:24 sharing your perspective on the markets and sectors that are of your preference.
00:46:29 Thank you. Aditya, what do you make of PowerGrid?
00:46:32 Pretty good quarter in terms of earnings.
00:46:34 The stock is also trading higher.
00:46:37 What is the view on PowerGrid at these levels?
00:46:41 Unfortunately, I was not able to look at the numbers,
00:46:43 so I could not be able to comment on it.
00:46:46 You have a technical view on PowerGrid.
00:46:48 The stock at 276 sits off the day's high point, but still holding steady.
00:46:54 Yeah, that's right. PowerGrid, in my opinion, hasn't completed its up move.
00:46:58 That started from, you know, somewhere about early last year,
00:47:03 probably got one more sequence of higher highs to complete.
00:47:06 Most of the PSU names, barring the banks,
00:47:11 they look like they still have further upsides to work with.
00:47:13 In fact, I'm bullish on Bharat Electronics, BEL,
00:47:20 and I'm having a price objective of 210 out there.
00:47:24 I think if the stock were to close above 187,
00:47:27 that will convince me that the short term correction is over
00:47:30 and is heading towards 210.
00:47:33 All right. Thanks for that, Jai.
00:47:36 You know, I want to also try and cover Zomato with Aditya.
00:47:42 Aditya, your views with regard to Zomato.
00:47:45 I know we've spoken about, you know, Paytm.
00:47:48 What's your quick view on Zomato, if you can quickly help us understand?
00:47:53 Zomato, I will be looking out for Blinkit's numbers.
00:47:56 Blinkit is the one which is really a drag on Zomato's numbers, the first point.
00:48:01 The second point is how the average order number has improved.
00:48:05 I believe in the number it would have improved.
00:48:07 So we need to check that and how Zomato Gold is really shaping up.
00:48:11 Again, I am very cautious.
00:48:13 The stock is not really very cheap,
00:48:16 even though they have now been swung into profitability.
00:48:19 But I will need to wait and watch how Blinkit really behaves
00:48:22 and how the losses in Blinkit are really controlled by Zomato.
00:48:27 Right. Well, that is Zomato.
00:48:30 The stock trading flat.
00:48:32 It's off the day's high point, interestingly,
00:48:33 but it's been a really good quarter from Zomato, at least in the face of it.
00:48:36 They've swung into a profit after a loss that they report in the same quarter last year.
00:48:42 Mahima, what do you have?
00:48:43 What are those numbers looking like?
00:48:45 Right, Samina. So they've clearly beaten the street estimates.
00:48:49 The revenue is up over 15 percent.
00:48:52 EBITDA has literally grown to 51 crores.
00:48:57 The margins have been at 1.55 percent.
00:49:01 And net profits has literally grown fourfold, which is at 138 crores.
00:49:06 The street estimates suggested that the profits will be around 86 crores.
00:49:10 However, they've reported a net profit, consolidated net profit of 138 crores.
00:49:15 So overall, the numbers look very good.
00:49:17 The press release is yet to come out.
00:49:19 So we'll be getting the numbers of Blinkit losses,
00:49:22 how they've worked out very soon.
00:49:26 Right. That's Zomato for you.
00:49:28 On the charts, Jai, do you have a trade?
00:49:31 No, Zomato is definitely an avoid.
00:49:33 It's going up on precipitously losing momentum.
00:49:38 And so it's an avoid for me completely.
00:49:40 And I know probably we could have seen a short-term top around 149, 150.
00:49:45 So I'm a bit careful about such names.
00:49:52 So that's the reason why it's an avoid for me rather than being a short.
00:49:54 So I'll be very careful.
00:49:58 So right in the thick of earnings, you have Power Finance Corp.
00:50:01 also declaring its numbers flashing at the bottom of your screen.
00:50:04 Stock up just about half a percent.
00:50:06 We'll come to that.
00:50:07 But, Jai, let me stick with you.
00:50:10 Your calls for the day.
00:50:12 BTST?
00:50:15 Yeah, so I would look at Bharat Electronics as a BTST.
00:50:19 And places to stop at about 179.
00:50:22 And look for the stock to scale 190 tomorrow.
00:50:26 Aditya, do you like anything that you've seen
00:50:29 that you want to recommend to our viewers?
00:50:33 Nothing as such.
00:50:34 The only recommendation is we are in a rolling bull market.
00:50:37 And in a rolling bull market, everything really moves up.
00:50:40 You need to do a quality check and a fundamental check on the stocks
00:50:44 that you are owning.
00:50:45 And please make sure that the stocks you are owning
00:50:48 have good fundamentals so that if the market corrects as well,
00:50:51 you don't get piped up.
00:50:53 Right.
00:50:54 Be very careful in this market.
00:50:56 That's the advice coming from Aditya.
00:50:58 Aditya, another one that I want to ask you
00:51:01 is in terms of spotting trends.
00:51:03 We've seen fertilizer and chemical names not doing too well,
00:51:07 even in terms of earnings.
00:51:09 How many quarters out do you think is a recovery for these sectors?
00:51:15 We've been tracking the chemical sector very, very closely.
00:51:19 And we feel that by the end of 2024,
00:51:22 it's somewhere that green should start to get observed
00:51:26 on all the chemical makers.
00:51:28 It's not a short-term play.
00:51:29 However, our valuation is significantly corrected.
00:51:33 And you have seen the only sector trading at the 52-week low
00:51:38 across all stocks would be the chemical sector.
00:51:41 So what you need to really do is it is a very heterogeneous sector.
00:51:44 You need to really observe the companies,
00:51:47 the commentary of all of these companies,
00:51:49 and then come to a view about which stocks you want to really invest in.
00:51:53 However, in the short term, do not expect any good returns
00:51:55 from the chemical companies.
00:51:57 Only in 2025 is my opinion, calendar year 2025,
00:52:01 is where some bit of growth could start to come back
00:52:04 to all of these chemical players.
00:52:08 Sure.
00:52:08 Got your point.
00:52:09 Aditya, I also want to try and talk to you
00:52:12 about some of the realty names.
00:52:18 We've had a stellar run in realty.
00:52:20 Is this kind of--
00:52:22 I mean, maybe not the same return, but is the uptrend sustainable?
00:52:28 In our view, real estate sector is also a cyclical sector.
00:52:31 We are now in a real estate upcycle where builders are getting the price
00:52:35 that they are asking for.
00:52:37 So in our opinion, this cycle will continue for the next one,
00:52:40 one and a half, two years.
00:52:42 However, the stocks across the sector, be it the developer in Delhi,
00:52:46 be it the developer in Bombay, they are not really very cheap.
00:52:50 They are really very expensive now.
00:52:52 So those who have bought these stocks, they can continue to hold on
00:52:55 to these stocks.
00:52:56 But in our opinion, now the real estate developer stocks, per se,
00:52:59 are really very expensive.
00:53:01 What you need to really do is you need to look at the real estate
00:53:05 ancillary stocks now.
00:53:07 That is where some of the stocks have not rallied on the tile side of it,
00:53:11 or some of it on the paint side of it, the smaller companies, per se,
00:53:14 is what you should be really looking on.
00:53:16 Or the cement stocks is where we are very bullish on.
00:53:19 As the infrastructure cycle continues to really move on.
00:53:22 So positive on real estate.
00:53:23 However, stocks are really very expensive.
00:53:25 Aarti Industries is facing some heat ahead of its earnings.
00:53:29 Is there an opportunity to further short the counter after a 5% cut,
00:53:32 we are seeing?
00:53:35 See, the counter is a little bit illiquid.
00:53:37 So otherwise, I would have said yes.
00:53:40 So it is looking negative, but a considerable amount of caution there.
00:53:46 And if you can short it with some amount of risk management in place,
00:53:51 yes, in that sense, yes, it can go a little bit lower,
00:53:54 somewhere close to 575 to 560.
00:53:59 So yeah, there is still downside potential there.
00:54:02 Sure.
00:54:03 You know, if you look at Surya Roshni, very quickly,
00:54:06 those numbers pouring in, but the stock is taking a beating.
00:54:10 All of a sudden, post the numbers, 5.5% or lower.
00:54:13 That's a crack that we are seeing.
00:54:15 Also, with regard to-- if I can ask Aditya with regard to Nifty,
00:54:21 as well as IT.
00:54:23 Aditya, do you prefer the larger cap IT, or do you prefer ER&D now?
00:54:30 That that's another space that's opened up, and quite a few options there,
00:54:34 as well.
00:54:35 Or do you prefer the mid to smaller rung IT counters?
00:54:41 You know, the mid cap IT space is a very, very large, vast space
00:54:45 where companies do different things.
00:54:47 ER&D is one of them.
00:54:49 So in our view, we are bullish on the IT sector.
00:54:52 Mind you, the valuations across mid cap ITs
00:54:54 are really very, very expensive.
00:54:56 Not expensive, very, very expensive.
00:54:58 However, we remain bullish on the mid cap IT space.
00:55:02 Companies engaged in the ER&D space, companies
00:55:05 engaged in products where they are supplying systems
00:55:09 to the electric vehicles, per se.
00:55:11 Companies like R&D technology, or companies like CoForge.
00:55:14 These are the companies that you should be looking for.
00:55:16 However, these stocks are really very expensive,
00:55:19 and you need to be very, very careful when you add them.
00:55:22 Jay, if I can come to you, with regard to some of these IT names,
00:55:25 you've seen good, decent run up with regard to where TCS, Infosys,
00:55:29 and the frontline IT names are concerned.
00:55:32 What are you looking at now on charts?
00:55:34 What are viewers supposed to do?
00:55:36 What would you advise them?
00:55:38 See, I've been bullish on nifty mid cap-- sorry,
00:55:41 nifty mid cap IT since October 2022,
00:55:44 and persistent has been my top pick.
00:55:46 And so in my opinion, even the mid cap IT names,
00:55:51 they have done about 90% of their move.
00:55:54 But the only frontline name I've been bullish on
00:55:57 is HCL Technologies.
00:55:59 And even with TCS's new all time high,
00:56:03 the move within the frontline IT names,
00:56:06 the components of nifty IT index,
00:56:08 look a little bit suspect for me.
00:56:09 So while TCS could have a little more upsides to work with,
00:56:13 say something like 4,300, I'm looking
00:56:16 at the other frontline IT names, Infosys, Wipro, and TechMindra
00:56:20 with a lot of caution.
00:56:22 So as long as the nifty IT index can hold above 36,100,
00:56:28 we can still try to be slightly positive.
00:56:32 But once you start seeing the index trade below 36,100,
00:56:36 you want to be abundantly cautious.
00:56:38 And the trend change for the sector occurs below 34,200.
00:56:41 But until that point, you can still
00:56:43 be positive even on the frontline name,
00:56:45 but more positive on the mid cap rather than the frontline.
00:56:49 Well, that's the word coming in.
00:56:51 Polar Hospital has also posted its earnings.
00:56:54 Numbers aren't looking too bad.
00:56:56 I think there's a 57% rise that we've seen in their profits.
00:56:59 Few stocks that are not doing too badly,
00:57:01 but the rest of the market is actually down and out.
00:57:04 Aditya, one last question before I let you go.
00:57:07 Have you seen Cummins India?
00:57:09 The numbers were good.
00:57:11 I mean, really, the conversation today
00:57:13 has largely been about earnings.
00:57:14 But what are you doing with Cummins?
00:57:18 Unfortunately, we've not been able to look at the numbers.
00:57:21 We will not be able to comment.
00:57:22 Right.
00:57:24 Jay, do you track this one?
00:57:26 Yeah, absolutely.
00:57:27 A stellar stock and still got a lot of steam.
00:57:30 That's what the charts are saying.
00:57:32 Probably, you can see a correction
00:57:36 only after crossing 3,000.
00:57:38 But in the very short term, it's extended.
00:57:41 If you're already holding, there is potential to claim this.
00:57:44 But fresh positions, I'm not so convinced
00:57:48 because the risk reward is quite skewed.
00:57:52 And the risks are quite high.
00:57:54 The stop loss placement is quite low, somewhere about 1,900.
00:57:57 So that doesn't look good for fresh long positions.
00:58:00 But as current holders of the stock,
00:58:02 I think this got higher levels to come through.
00:58:07 Sure.
00:58:08 So we let both Jay as well as Aditya go on that note.
00:58:13 Thank you so much for all of your views on India market close.
00:58:18 But as we come very close to close,
00:58:21 let's have a look at where we are settling off for the day.
00:58:24 We're down around 4/5 of a percent.
00:58:26 21,750 is where we seem to be settling, just very--
00:58:31 just towards close.
00:58:32 Let's quickly have the heat map as well.
00:58:34 There you go on the Nifty Bank as well, a 1.6% cut,
00:58:36 just about able to stay above the 45K mark at the moment,
00:58:40 the Nifty Bank.
00:58:41 And that's largely because you look
00:58:43 at the bottom rung of that, you'll
00:58:45 see plenty of private sector banks there.
00:58:47 Kotak Mahindra, Axis.
00:58:49 You also have the likes of an Indus Indus and ICICI
00:58:52 among the top 10, 11 losers on the Nifty.
00:58:55 Let's also look at some of the other sectors like FMCG.
00:58:58 You see Britannia, Nestle.
00:59:00 You also have the likes of an Oyster Motors,
00:59:03 Tata Consumer among the FMCG space.
00:59:05 Looking weak in trade today, you have also
00:59:08 the likes of an Asian Plains.
00:59:09 Among the gainers, well, PSU, Bellweather,
00:59:14 SBI seems to be the top gainer there on the Nifty 50 today,
00:59:18 which is a positive.
00:59:20 You also have the likes of a Power Grid,
00:59:23 good set of numbers.
00:59:24 Coal India, which was trading largely flat,
00:59:27 is closing well in the green, closing strong.
00:59:30 We're seeing good support coming in from IT.
00:59:33 There we have it.
00:59:34 Markets have closed.
00:59:36 And we are getting good support from IT, TCS, HCL Tech.
00:59:39 Let's quickly pull up the sectoral charts
00:59:42 so that we understand which sectors have done well.
00:59:45 There you go, Nifty Media, PSU Bank, no surprise there.
00:59:48 Largely led by SBI, I would suppose.
00:59:51 Nifty IT closing in the green, a quarter of a percent higher.
00:59:54 But Nifty FMCG, there you go.
00:59:56 And Nifty Fin is down around 2% thereabouts.
00:59:59 Nifty Bank also down 1 and 1/2 plus percent at close.
01:00:03 Also, if I can quickly look at the Nifty PSU Bank,
01:00:07 we'll have a look at the constituents there.
01:00:09 There you go, SBI 3 and 1/2 percent, Bob also up there.
01:00:12 So the larger ones seem to be pulling the weight at least
01:00:15 today.
01:00:17 Canberra Bank as well, 3% higher.
01:00:19 And the likes of a Yuco IOB, where the free float is pretty
01:00:23 low, seems to have taken a knock.
01:00:26 So that's where we are at.
01:00:27 If we can also have the constituents of the Nifty Pharma
01:00:30 to kind of cap it off, there you go, the Nifty Pharma.
01:00:35 The index was absolutely flat.
01:00:37 But you're seeing some traction in Alkim Labs, Zydus Life
01:00:41 on the back of earnings, of course.
01:00:43 Lupin also up 1% on the back of earnings.
01:00:46 But that's what we have for you today on India Market Close.
01:00:49 We'll wrap for the day.
01:00:51 We'll see you tomorrow.
01:00:52 From Samina, myself, everyone who puts the show together,
01:00:54 thanks so much for watching.
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