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00:00 A small number of stocks are led by US indexes, specifically the S&P 500 index at a statistical level,
00:07 whether last year or this year.
00:09 When we look at the ratings, this limited number of stocks is the same as the S&P 500 index,
00:18 which is expected to rise in the next 5 years.
00:22 We are talking about what is known as the P/E, the price to earnings,
00:28 and we look at this standard in the future for the next 12 months.
00:34 If we look at this standard for the next 12 months,
00:38 we find it at 20.3 times the S&P 500 index.
00:42 What does this number mean?
00:44 This means that the investor is ready to pay $20 in exchange for every dollar of profits made by the companies.
00:51 For those who do not know how high this number is, we reached the highest future ratings in the past two years.
01:02 If we look at the averages of the past 5 years, we are above these averages.
01:08 The reason is a specific sector, specifically the technology sector.
01:13 It is not the entire sector, but the Magnificent Seven, the seven largest companies in the technology sector,
01:21 are currently trading at historical profit margins.
01:24 This means that the price has risen significantly compared to the future earnings.
01:32 We have seen that the P/E rising for the S&P 500 index is not due to the recovery of profits,
01:41 but due to the rise in share prices, which is known as the multiples increase.
01:46 The price of the share that rises is what leads to the rise in profit margins.
01:51 The dilemma is where does this rise come from?
01:54 It comes from eight main sectors, but it mainly comes from the technology sector.
02:01 And from the markets like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and as we mentioned Nvidia,
02:09 which was the most prominent because the profits and the rise in shares we saw were measurable.
02:14 Only the technology sector today is trading at 28 times future earnings.
02:20 This means that the investor pays 28 dollars in exchange for each dollar of the profits of future companies.
02:27 What is being bet on here?
02:29 It is only artificial intelligence and how these companies will lead their profits.
02:33 But here is the dilemma in itself.
02:36 Because this multiple, when we look at the profits for the technology sector,
02:42 today the investor does not only pay for the profits for a year,
02:45 he pays for profits up to five years, he pays for the growth of the company's profits over five years.
02:51 Therefore, yes, the profits are high and they are measurable.
02:55 But when we look at what the investor is looking at in the artificial intelligence,
03:00 and how it is possible for the profits of the companies to be reflected over the next five years,
03:05 not just one year, we notice that the profit repeat may be acceptable to some extent.