Newcastle bounced back from a disappointing December to beat Aston Villa. But was this a flash in the pan, or proof that Eddie Howe's men are back to their intense best. FourFourTwo's Adam Clery examines the game.
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00:00 Hello everybody, Adam Cleary from 442 here and your Castle United man, they are so back,
00:11 they are so back and that's the entire intro.
00:17 Okay so, last night and your Castle United team looking a shadow of their former selves
00:21 and terrible away from home, playing Aston Villa side that are just usually absolutely
00:26 brilliant and brilliant at home, only one outcome there, right?
00:31 Well no, not quite.
00:32 This side still ravaged by injury and down to the bare bones, dominated Villa for long
00:36 parts when they needed to and then defended really well for the last part of the game.
00:40 They got a really, really good 3-1 win and looked, dare I say it, back to their best,
00:46 back to the team that got into the top four last season.
00:49 And very, very simply put, the reason they looked so good against Villa and have looked
00:53 so not good in recent months is because last night, they were really brave.
01:00 What they've been doing to teams all season is having really nice controlled possession
01:03 at the back, inviting teams onto them and then, ah surprise, moving one of their wide
01:08 players, usually McGann and last night it was Tielemans I think, was on the left, into
01:12 the centre where there's theoretically a lot of room for them and then either hitting a
01:17 ball directly into them as they found the space or if they're tracked by their marker,
01:22 hitting the ball into the space they've vacated where one of the forwards then spins
01:26 off.
01:27 We've done like three videos on this already but the bottom line is, in that first half
01:31 of the season, if you were wondering why Villa suddenly looked like title challengers, it
01:35 was because nobody knew how to deal with this.
01:38 But, Castle United did know how to deal with this and the way they dealt with it was by
01:43 being really brave.
01:44 In order to get the angles they need for this controlled possession, Villa effectively have
01:48 a narrow three of Martinez and the two centre backs in the box and then a wider three of
01:53 the two full backs and usually Douglas Luiz just outside it.
01:57 So Newcastle just really aggressively went man for man with them.
02:01 The two wide attackers, they joined Isak right on the edge of the box, you would literally
02:05 see them standing in exact shape waiting to charge them and then the midfielders wouldn't
02:11 necessarily go man for man straight away but would take a second line just behind them
02:15 and as soon as the ball hit the full backs you'd then see Longstaff or Miley immediately
02:20 charging out to close them down.
02:22 Now Villa to an extent do want teams to do this because you can see here if you're defending
02:26 that way you've committed six whole players up this end of the field leaving loads of
02:31 room so when they do get a bit of space they'll then hit it long, it's part of their game
02:36 plan.
02:37 But what Newcastle did differently which other teams either haven't thought of or haven't
02:40 been able to do successfully against Villa is two things.
02:44 Firstly, they were super super aggressive in this part of the pitch, they hounded Aston
02:49 Villa when they were on the ball, they never gave them the time or space required to get
02:54 their head up and pick an accurate pass.
02:56 Which meant that time and time again when Villa did go long from this position the ball
03:00 was quite easily mopped up, it went out of play, it wasn't their usual sort of laser
03:06 focused attack.
03:07 And secondly, for all the players left over they again went man to man.
03:12 Just to illustrate this point, this is John McGinn's heat map from that match, fairly
03:16 typical form at Villa, he will start wide but also he drifts inside to receive that
03:20 ball, that's pretty much what he does every single game.
03:23 And this is Dan Byrne's heat map from that match, it's almost pretty much up to the centre
03:28 of the pitch where he would just pass him on to somebody else.
03:31 He has shadowed him absolutely everywhere.
03:35 Now look, if I made this sound really simple, like oh just aggressively press them here
03:39 and then go man for man there, it's not that easy at all.
03:43 Everybody would do this to Villa, it's very difficult to do and because you're so man
03:47 for man and you're so reliant on this intensity, if anybody gets spun or done or loses their
03:53 man, if there's any failing anywhere in this, you're in deep s***.
03:57 Now the way they attacked was fairly straightforward, Aston Villa famously have a very high line,
04:02 Newcastle would look to sort of get the ball between either Bruno, Schär or Trippier,
04:06 three players who have got like a nice long range pass in them and then Gordon, Isak,
04:11 Murphy, even sometimes Longstaff, they would look to get in behind and they'd hit them
04:14 over the top.
04:15 But while it's quite straightforward, it is still quite a brave way to play because Villa
04:19 will dominate possession, they will tire you out with their passing, so you've just got
04:22 it back and now you're going to hit a low percentage pass over the top and maybe just
04:27 give it back to them.
04:28 The temptation would be to retain the ball, but every single time Newcastle could work
04:33 the ball out to this side, they would hit that ball.
04:36 And in the same way that the bravery they had with their press ball through defensively,
04:41 the bravery they had with their passing, always looking to get in behind, got them both of
04:45 the corners that they scored from.
04:47 But just as if you were at a post-punk revival concert circa around 2006 and had not heard
04:54 an honest mistake yet, the bravery was not finished there.
04:59 Oh, sorry, one second.
05:01 Hello?
05:02 What niche was it that one?
05:03 Yes, I thought it might be.
05:04 Newcastle United, a team that has been counter-attacked on more than anybody else in the Premier League
05:09 this season, went into both those corners from which they scored with a man over.
05:15 Aston Villa, when they are defending these, always leave two up and Newcastle saw that
05:19 and just thought, "Meh."
05:21 And as a result, both goals come from the fact that they just have more players around
05:26 the goal mount than Aston Villa did.
05:28 I could do a whole video breaking this down, but Villa really do prioritise blocking off
05:32 the front post, so they always zonally put men there, regardless of whether or not the
05:36 opposition does.
05:37 As a result, this makes it quite easy to overload at the back post and jostle and create space.
05:42 And just look at the moment Fabian Scher scores this goal.
05:46 Yes, he is being marked by two players, so he's the least likely player in this scenario
05:51 to score that goal, but there are two free men around him, mere feet from the goal.
05:58 It's kind of weird in a way, it shouldn't be Fabian Scher who scores that goal, but
06:02 if the ball does drop into that area, Newcastle should almost certainly score anyway.
06:08 And even if you look at the second goal, which you would say is a success for Aston Villa,
06:11 because they've overloaded that front post and they've cleared the ball from that area,
06:15 when it goes back to Anthony Gordon, who, oh, what a shock, is standing completely unmarked
06:20 on the edge of the box.
06:22 When that shot comes in, Newcastle have three players closer to the goal than any Aston
06:28 Villa defender.
06:29 There's obviously more than a degree of fortune about the way it ends up in the back of the
06:32 net, but Newcastle have given themselves the best possible chance of having some of that
06:37 fortune by committing extra players into the box for the set piece.
06:41 Like as an aside for this, Aston Villa are second in the league this season for the number
06:45 of set piece goals they've conceded.
06:47 So they concede loads, but they're right down the bottom, I think like third or fourth bottom
06:52 for the total number of set piece chances they concede.
06:55 And I mean, I don't know about you, but my interpretation of that data would be that
07:00 a lot of teams are reluctant to commit men forward on these set pieces because Villa
07:04 are leaving men up the pitch.
07:06 So you kind of want to guard against that counter attack.
07:08 But when teams are brave enough to do that, because they end up with a man advantage in
07:12 the box, they score loads of goals, way more than they would normally.
07:16 But anyway, back to Newcastle, right?
07:18 So they were really, really brave in every single element of their play against Aston
07:23 Villa, just like they were last season.
07:25 And it got them a really good result, just like the kind of results they were getting
07:29 last season.
07:30 So why, why now?
07:32 Why suddenly so brave?
07:34 Why suddenly back to their best?
07:36 Well, and I know Newcastle United fans were really sick of hearing this the last couple
07:40 of months, because trust me, I was really sick of talking about it.
07:43 But it's the injuries or more specifically, it's the levels of tiredness.
07:47 What some people may call brave, and I'm aware I did just call it brave, so I am some people,
07:52 what some people may call brave, others may just call having the required energy levels
07:57 to implement a strategic plan.
08:00 Newcastle United pressed up really aggressively against Aston Villa and went man for man in
08:04 their own defensive third, because they trusted themselves to have the energy to keep doing
08:09 that for the whole game.
08:11 Newcastle United worked really hard to win the ball back in their own half and then played
08:15 really long diagonal balls over the top for their attackers to chase, because they had
08:19 the energy to win those races.
08:22 And more importantly, Newcastle United were really happy to push all the way up to commit
08:27 extra men into the box for set pieces to leave themselves open to counterattacks, because
08:32 for the first time in months, they trusted themselves to be able to work back the other
08:39 way.
08:40 Saying tired isn't an excuse for a Premier League team to fall completely off the ball,
08:43 but tiredness does impact Newcastle in a way it doesn't really impact a lot of other teams.
08:49 Their system is so dependent on pushing as many players forward possible to make up for
08:54 the fact a lot of them are still quite technically limited compared to their rivals at the top
08:58 of the league.
08:59 But then if they get caught out because they've over committed bodies, everybody works back
09:04 as hard as possible.
09:05 And the problem they've had is with the insane fixture congestion and the injury list, meaning
09:09 they were unable to rotate, they were sticking to this plan all through sort of October,
09:14 November, December, just for limited parts of matches.
09:18 And that's why you kept seeing them take an early lead in games and look really good,
09:22 but then just retreat into themselves and get more and more defensive and eventually
09:27 concede a heartbreaking late equaliser or winner.
09:31 You still call it a winner if it's against you, don't you?
09:34 It's not like a losing goal, a winning goal?
09:36 You know what I mean?
09:37 Just to show you how bad it was, right?
09:38 So in your castle had 22 players in that squad that could be relied upon to start matches.
09:43 You had two in every single position, except I've got Lewis Hall here because they only
09:48 had three centre backs and he was sort of spare.
09:50 So basically more or less two in every position.
09:53 So in this first run between October and November, Newcastle had seven games in 22 days, an average
09:58 rest time between matches of 2.3 days.
10:02 And of those 22 players, 12 of them were injured at one stage or another.
10:07 And this here is just where the whole season started to implode.
10:10 In December, they had 10 games in 30 days, just three days on average to rest between
10:15 matches.
10:16 And they had to play teams like PSG, Man United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Milan, like all the crunch
10:23 champions.
10:24 League ties were there, there was massive games in the league.
10:26 It just felt like week on week, Newcastle were playing the biggest match of their season.
10:30 And again, in that window, 13 of those 22 players were injured at one stage or another.
10:37 And hence it started off okay against Chelsea, PSG, Man United, two wins and a draw.
10:42 But after that, they only beat Fulham across those next seven games.
10:46 They went out of the Carabao, they went out of the Champions League, they fell all the
10:49 way down the table.
10:51 They just couldn't play.
10:53 Here's a fun bit of maths for you, right?
10:54 There's 22 games there and 22 players.
10:57 That gives you a total of like 484 available players in matches.
11:03 I know only 11 can play, but technically you should have 484 players to choose from across
11:09 22 games.
11:10 That does make sense, right?
11:11 Like 22 players over 22 games, you should have like 484 options to change the system
11:17 or to rest players.
11:18 You should have that much sort of playing resource available.
11:21 Well, in those three and a half months of Newcastle's 484 playing options, they were
11:27 without 216 of them.
11:30 Meaning they had to play what was arguably one of the most critical periods of football
11:35 in the club's entire history without 45% of the playing resource they should have had
11:42 to do it.
11:43 Or just to put that another way, right?
11:44 Let's say for the sake of argument that 45% of 22 players is 10 players, right?
11:51 That meant for three and a half months, Newcastle had on average every single game, 12 footballers
11:58 and they didn't get to choose which ones they were.
12:00 And then not only did they only have 12 players, but for three and a half months, those 12
12:05 players were getting about three days rest in between every game.
12:10 Nevermind why aren't they higher up the table?
12:13 Dear viewer, the question should be for those that didn't miss a minute of that, like Bruno
12:17 Rocher, why are they still alive?
12:21 So yeah, there you go.
12:22 If you want to know why Newcastle United are so back, it's because in the month of February,
12:26 they only have five games.
12:28 They've got an average rest time of like six and a half days between them as well.
12:33 And when this team can run, this team can win.
12:37 Now though, very quickly before you go, if you have enjoyed this video, please genuinely,
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12:54 Either way though, get me on Twitter @AdamCleary, C-L-E-R-Y, four four two circles in the corner
12:57 of the video.
12:58 Latest issue of the magazine is just out of reach, so I can't show you it, but it's got
13:01 Alex Ferguson on the cover.
13:03 Boo, you can go pick that up from all good news agents and the bad ones too.
13:06 But until next time, I've been Adam Cleary.
13:09 I feel like I had something else to tell you.
13:12 Oh well, I'll text you.
13:13 Bye.