- #HDFCBank, #ICICIBank lead gains on the bourses
- #VodafoneIdea pares gains after jumping nearly 12% intraday
Niraj Shah and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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- #VodafoneIdea pares gains after jumping nearly 12% intraday
Niraj Shah and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:02:18 >> Hello, and welcome to India Market Close.
00:02:19 Right here on NDTV Profit, I'm Neeraj Shah.
00:02:21 And let's take stock of what's happening in the markets currently.
00:02:24 About, it's as flat as flat can be and largely been that way now for
00:02:30 a better part of the last hour, hour and a half.
00:02:33 I don't think we had too much of volatility in the day.
00:02:35 In fact, it'll be great if we can pull up the intraday of the nifty ones,
00:02:38 just to show you how placid the session has been.
00:02:42 So unlike the last few days, I mean, when you see this, it looks volatile.
00:02:47 It is not, it's just been a very, very flat move.
00:02:51 And this shows the peak, right?
00:02:52 It was about, what, maybe quarter of a percent or thereabouts.
00:02:56 So hardly any change on the index today.
00:03:00 The bank nifty, possibly not too different either, just about 0.21%.
00:03:05 And the mid caps and the small cap, which started off well,
00:03:07 about half a percent, are kind of maintaining that.
00:03:10 At least the mid cap index is,
00:03:11 the small cap index was actually doing much better.
00:03:13 And it still continues to do that way.
00:03:15 So in some sense, the market might be slightly positive.
00:03:18 Bring up the heat map very quickly before I hand it over to Harsh for
00:03:21 what's happening at the broader end of the spectrum.
00:03:23 Almost even Stevens, and the list of losers is still the same.
00:03:27 So Asian pain still continues to be the top drag.
00:03:30 There is a bit of a pullback in Maruti today.
00:03:33 HCL tech is down today, Maruti presumably because of the Macquarie not.
00:03:37 On the upside, Adani Enterprises and a lot of talk around the quantum of
00:03:42 listings that will happen from the main company of the Adani group over the course
00:03:46 of the next two, three years, I don't know if that is playing a part there.
00:03:49 Adani ports is up about a percent and a half too.
00:03:52 And some others, the only catch is that IT, which was doing very,
00:03:56 very well for a better part of the day and yesterday,
00:03:58 it's just kind of come off a little bit.
00:04:00 We don't see too many stocks in the top gainers list out here.
00:04:03 But the action at the broad end of the spectrum, at least stock specific, Harsh,
00:04:06 and can't take your eyes off the call of duty.
00:04:09 >> Absolutely, so I'll start off with Vodafone and take a cue from that.
00:04:14 Vodafone, Indus Towers, both of them a buzz on the back of news.
00:04:19 Jupiter Life acquires land in Pune, 11,000 odd square feet.
00:04:24 On the back of that, that stock is up in a way 8%,
00:04:28 steadily gaining through the day of trade today.
00:04:30 Salasa Techno on the back of Audowinds, 4.5% higher on your screen.
00:04:35 Then you have the likes of an IRCTC, tie up with Swiggy, that one buzzing.
00:04:40 Honasa, favorable report coming through and we have Sonocomps,
00:04:45 which is also trading roughly now 5.5% plus higher.
00:04:51 Let's also pull up something like a data patterns within the small cap space.
00:04:55 Up in a way, second consecutive day of gains for
00:04:59 this company on the back of FDI easing out in the space sector.
00:05:03 You also have Wellspun Living, higher volumes, that one's pushed higher.
00:05:08 BSE probably within the top five gainers on the nifty small cap today.
00:05:13 You also have Cams within that list.
00:05:16 Happiest Minds up on the back of 3% higher on the back of AI,
00:05:21 which they have released and Kalyani Steel also on the back of news higher.
00:05:28 Now let's switch over to the ones which are in the red.
00:05:31 I'll start off with Geofin, sorry, I'll stay with Geofin, that's 12.5% higher.
00:05:36 I'll start with Pratap Snacks for those in the red, 5.5% plus
00:05:41 down on the back of calling off that or
00:05:45 taking rumors off the table with regard to any deal with ITC.
00:05:49 FACT also trading lower, probably the top loser on the nifty mid cap today.
00:05:53 Loda, Yes Bank, joining FACT on that nifty mid cap.
00:05:57 Those are some of the other names in focus.
00:06:00 You also have the likes of an MRPL, Power Industries, and
00:06:03 PNB Housing within the small cap space, which are sulking in trade.
00:06:07 Those are some of the top losers on the mid and the small cap indices.
00:06:11 Back to you, Neeraj.
00:06:12 >> Let's get in our guests on the show.
00:06:14 And frankly, you could divvy up the stock of the day between two,
00:06:19 which is either Vodafone Idea or Geofin, because both of them have had a spectacular move.
00:06:24 I'll start off with the larger one, then move on to Vodafone Idea,
00:06:26 which is arguably also the key mover for the last two days.
00:06:30 But quite stunning really the gains that are happening in Geofin,
00:06:33 in particular trading almost at the high point of the day.
00:06:36 Aditya Agarwala, Head of Research and Investments at Invest for EDU,
00:06:39 chances on the technicals, Chakri Lok Priya Managing Partner and
00:06:42 Red Strawberry LLP on the fundamentals.
00:06:44 Gentlemen, thanks so much for joining in.
00:06:45 Good afternoon.
00:06:46 Aditya, I'll start off with you.
00:06:47 It's a flat day for the index.
00:06:49 Are you avoiding trades on the index and sticking to specific stocks therefore?
00:06:54 >> Good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:06:56 Thanks for having the show.
00:06:57 Absolutely, it's flat, as you mentioned at the start of the show.
00:07:01 And it's very difficult to take a trade, Neeraj, to be honest.
00:07:04 Even though we have broken out from that major hurdle of 22,150, 22,200,
00:07:09 but there hasn't been any significant rally on the upside.
00:07:13 Upside to 22,300 looks immediately capped and every time market heads closer to 22,300.
00:07:19 We've seen, we do witness kind of a selling pressure.
00:07:22 And yesterday was one of a kind when markets actually flipped from the lows of
00:07:27 21,900 to about 850 when we thought that market will see a rally in trade today,
00:07:32 but we haven't seen that.
00:07:34 So my sense is market are still locked in that narrow band,
00:07:36 just that it has shifted higher now from 22,300 to about 22,000 now.
00:07:41 So 22,000 on the downside will act as an immediate support and
00:07:44 I guess 22,300 is an immediate hurdle.
00:07:47 And as you mentioned, it's very difficult to take a trade on the index now.
00:07:49 So I would avoid taking a trade on the index at the moment,
00:07:52 rather stick to stock specific where I'm seeing a clear breakout or
00:07:55 a breakdown and a follow through momentum.
00:07:58 >> Okay, noted.
00:07:59 What are the stocks therefore that you are choosing to trade individually today,
00:08:03 Aditya?
00:08:05 >> I have a couple of buy recommendations needed.
00:08:07 The first is from the media space, Sun TV stock after a decent correction took
00:08:11 support at a major moving average and from there it's showing signs of a recovery.
00:08:15 Has broken out from a narrow consolidation phase.
00:08:18 I'll go with a buy on Sun TV for
00:08:20 a target of 680 on the upside with a stop loss at 610 on the downside.
00:08:23 The second stock is actually something which I usually don't talk about.
00:08:26 It's Indiabull Housing Finance for its own reasons.
00:08:29 But surprisingly stock after a decent correction saw a bit of an up move and
00:08:33 entered into a consolidation phase.
00:08:35 It will be wrong to ignore the stock at current levels because of the kind of
00:08:38 momentum and the activity that I see on the stock.
00:08:40 Volumes are quite heavy in that stock at the moment.
00:08:43 So it's broken out from a downward sloping channel and a trend line as well.
00:08:47 So I'll go with a buy on Indiabull's Housing Finance for
00:08:49 a target of 240 on the upside with a stop loss at 182 on the downside.
00:08:52 >> Okay, well, the stock of the afternoon,
00:08:59 should we choose Vodafone or Jio is the key question really.
00:09:02 I guess again, Chakri Lokpre on this conversation on that.
00:09:05 And ideally, the stock of the morning or the afternoon, you could argue,
00:09:10 let's say Vodafone, let's go with Vodafone.
00:09:12 We want to Jio Financial as well, but said to consider fundraising very soon.
00:09:16 At some point of time, we'll get in Smriti to talk about this as well.
00:09:19 But, or do we have Smriti to talk about this at all?
00:09:22 Okay, I think we'll do that in moments from now.
00:09:25 But Chakri, good afternoon.
00:09:28 What does this mean for the telco space?
00:09:30 >> Yeah, good afternoon.
00:09:32 Vodafone has been going through a huge amount of uncertainty for
00:09:36 quite some time now.
00:09:37 Some amount of stake has gone to the government as well, all well known facts.
00:09:41 And it was very welcoming to hear Kumar Bangla Birla talk about
00:09:46 continued investments into Vodafone.
00:09:48 I think that has enthused the market in terms of the company and
00:09:52 also JioFin while related on the financial services space,
00:09:58 will also benefit hugely as the CapEx rolls out.
00:10:02 And so I think they're somehow connected evens again for different reasons.
00:10:07 And Vodafone clearly needs that capital infusion as well as for
00:10:14 the next level of spectrum growth and rollout of data.
00:10:16 >> Sorry, just one follow up out there.
00:10:21 And actually, before that follow up, let's get in Smriti, our colleague,
00:10:25 to give us some more details or the key details on the fundraising.
00:10:28 Smriti?
00:10:29 >> Well, yes, the company on February 27 will consider a fundraiser.
00:10:35 Now, this can be through a rights issue, a QIP, or any other mode.
00:10:39 Now, this is obviously, the market is taking positive cues from this
00:10:45 announcement because we've seen Vodafone Idea struggle in the last couple of years.
00:10:49 They have been losing subscribers.
00:10:52 And if you look at the overall debt of the company,
00:10:54 the gross debt of the company as of December 31, stood at over 2 lakh crore.
00:11:00 Now 90% of this debt is owed to the government.
00:11:04 Now, Sunil Bharti Mittal in a media interview recently said that
00:11:08 Vodafone Idea needs $7 to $9 billion just to ensure survival.
00:11:15 Now, you have to understand Vodafone Idea doesn't have 5G like its competitors,
00:11:19 Bharti, Airtel, and Jio.
00:11:21 So just surviving is becoming difficult for Vodafone Idea.
00:11:25 Now, previously, promoters had promised that, so
00:11:29 we have two promoters as of now, the Tabela Group and the Vodafone PLC.
00:11:33 Now, a promoter group had promised to infuse 2,000 crores in the company if needed.
00:11:41 And the company has time and again said that that will be part of the fundraise.
00:11:46 So it is likely that if they go for a rights issue,
00:11:49 then the promoters may infuse this capital.
00:11:51 But it is clearly not enough for the company to repay its dues.
00:11:56 However, if they're able to raise enough capital, that's a plus for
00:12:01 Industars, now they have some dues towards Industars.
00:12:04 And if they start paying those dues, Industars will be able to give out
00:12:09 a special dividend and also be in a better financial position.
00:12:13 So that's pretty much where we currently stand.
00:12:15 And we're gonna be tracking the board meeting and what comes out of it.
00:12:19 >> Well, thanks for that, Smriti.
00:12:22 Chakri, if I can come straight to you.
00:12:24 When I was looking up the number of shareholders in something like
00:12:29 Vodafone, the number was around 32 lakh shareholders.
00:12:34 Now SBI has 30 lakh shareholders, and
00:12:37 the only other company, probably more shareholders is a Yes Bank with 50 lakhs.
00:12:42 Is this a bit of a retail frenzy which has built up on Vodafone?
00:12:47 That's my first question to you, Chakri.
00:12:49 And with regard to Indust Towers, do you see this as a big positive?
00:12:53 Or do you still think that the troubles continue to brew?
00:12:59 >> Yeah, good questions in terms of both Yes Bank as well as Vodafone.
00:13:03 The reason why the shareholding's changed was because of the company specific
00:13:07 issues that each one of them faced at different points in time.
00:13:11 And in both cases, the government stepped in.
00:13:13 And after a very significant fall in the stock prices of Vodafone and Yes Bank.
00:13:20 And so that provided a good level of clarity to the end investor,
00:13:25 the retail investor, that the government has been some kind of a backstop.
00:13:30 Which has allowed the shareholding pandemic that was significantly changed for
00:13:34 both Yes Bank as well as Vodafone after both these events.
00:13:37 Now with the government owning majority of Vodafone's debt,
00:13:40 clearly some of the debt will be converted into equity over the course of time.
00:13:45 And the government therefore will continue to be, or
00:13:48 rather will become a big shareholder of Vodafone.
00:13:53 So given all this, you have seen a lot of change of hands and
00:13:56 that kind of tells you the story of the shareholding pattern of both these companies.
00:14:01 >> So point taken, if I can also have your views with regard to Indus Towers.
00:14:09 How does, do you believe that structurally it changes things for
00:14:15 Indus Towers in a big fashion?
00:14:17 Because the stock has moved up significantly, 8.5% higher now in trade.
00:14:22 >> It does indeed change its fortunes at least for the, let's say for
00:14:27 the next two, three years.
00:14:29 But the longer term is once the whole industry itself is moving to,
00:14:34 eventually we'll move to satellite based communications.
00:14:38 Then the whole business model still comes into question.
00:14:41 So that's sort of part of story that can happen within the,
00:14:47 let's say, next four or five years.
00:14:49 So how Indus Towers reinvents itself is of course, that story is not yet unfolded.
00:14:54 But this removes some kind of an immediate overhang and
00:14:58 therefore the positional investment.
00:15:00 >> Okay, point taken.
00:15:02 Aditya, let me move over to you.
00:15:03 On charts, both of these very quickly, what's your view?
00:15:06 >> I'll talk about Indus Towers first, Harsh.
00:15:09 Clearly after a long consolidation and
00:15:11 a correction stock has finally shown some kind of a strength.
00:15:14 And if you take a look at the last couple of weeks,
00:15:16 there has been buying in the stock without a doubt.
00:15:18 And today has been that breakout point for the stock when it has finally broken
00:15:22 on that hurdle of 238, 239 on the upside and good volume back breakout.
00:15:26 We've seen in the stock.
00:15:27 As a disclaimer, this is one recommendation which we have made to our
00:15:30 clients as well, no person holding here.
00:15:32 And I believe this breakout which has taken place in stock today is here to stay.
00:15:36 I've also joined major highs on the stock from 2017 and
00:15:41 I get a downward sloping trend line and from that also I see a big breakout on the stock.
00:15:45 So overall, if I just look at the chart structure, it looks extremely bullish and
00:15:48 it looks like a trend reversal for Indus Towers.
00:15:51 Can test levels of 280 to about 310 on the upside and with a low hanging fruit,
00:15:56 maybe with a surplus of 220 on the downside would offer an excellent risk to reward
00:16:00 ratio, that is as far as Indus Towers is concerned.
00:16:03 Talking about Vodafone idea, definitely that is also one stock which is buzzing in
00:16:07 trade and it has been doing so for some time, Harsh.
00:16:10 But again, on the upside, continues to face resistance closer to about 17.5,
00:16:15 18 odd rupees till the time stock closes above 18 and a half, sorry 18 to 18 and a half.
00:16:20 Till the time stock closes beyond 18 and a half, I'll not go gungo on the stock.
00:16:25 Above 18 and a half, yes, definitely there could be a bit of an up move on the stock
00:16:29 to levels of 22 to about 23.
00:16:32 So watch out for 18 and a half, close above that and then the stock enters levels of 22, 23.
00:16:37 Wow, very interesting thoughts coming in there, especially on charts.
00:16:41 Time for a quick breather.
00:16:43 Stick around, we delve deeper into today's market movement, specific stocks as well.
00:16:47 Stay tuned to NDTV Profit, more on the other side.
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00:20:29 Back with India market close and a host of stocks are buzzing in trade today on the back of,
00:20:34 well, not on the back of volumes, but with very strong volumes as well.
00:20:38 So price volume buzzes out there.
00:20:40 Varsha joins in with a list of some of those.
00:20:42 Varsha, good afternoon.
00:20:44 Good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:20:45 So let's start with the Yaxho Industries, wherein if you see the company has seen an intraday high of almost 20%.
00:20:51 Some highlights about the company.
00:20:53 So they're going for capacity expansion.
00:20:56 There's this greenfield project at Pakha Jag in Gujarat where the capacity of the plant is around 7,500 metric tons per annum.
00:21:05 And they're expecting revenue at peak utilization of rupees 600 crores in FY26.
00:21:11 Then we have Indocount wherein volumes are trading over 9X.
00:21:15 Now, actually the stock is trading higher for last three consecutive sessions
00:21:20 after government exempted custom duties on import of extra long staple cotton.
00:21:26 Company also saw nine large deals.
00:21:29 Also, the next we have Adani Wilmar where stock is buzzing on the back of many large deals.
00:21:34 Highest volumes are seen at the average price of rupees 385.
00:21:38 Then we have Suprajit Engineering which saw an intraday high of almost 6%.
00:21:44 Now, company has recently marked entry into breaking product division.
00:21:50 Also holds 75% share in two-wheeler mechanical control cables.
00:21:54 It's a sole supplier to large players such as Hero Motor Corp and TVS Motors.
00:22:00 Lastly, we have Data Patton where stocks are intraday high of 8%.
00:22:04 Now, this is after India's cabinet minister eases FDI norms for the space sector.
00:22:10 Now, foreign companies can invest in satellite and rocket manufacturing automatically
00:22:15 instead of government route.
00:22:17 So, these are all the stocks which are buzzing today.
00:22:20 Right. Thanks so much for that, Varsha.
00:22:23 But Aditya, if I can take it to you with regard to some of these,
00:22:26 something within these volume buzzers which may look interesting,
00:22:31 especially on the space side of things.
00:22:34 Any stocks on your radar on this count?
00:22:40 Maybe Data Patton I could look at.
00:22:42 Definitely a strong-looking chart pattern, Varsha.
00:22:44 And after consolidation, stock has broken out.
00:22:47 Follow-up buying today and both the days we are seeing good volume action in the stock.
00:22:51 Immediate target on the upside here would be around 24 to 82 or 2500.
00:22:57 If 2500 is taken out decisively, I'll go for a target of at least 2700 on the upside.
00:23:01 Another downside supports are at 2300, about 2270.
00:23:05 So, this is one stock that I would want to buy if at all I have to buy from the volume buzzers.
00:23:11 Right. Thanks for that, Aditya.
00:23:13 Chakri, if I can come to you, the other one which is buzzing in trade,
00:23:17 you know, Neeraj mentioned it multiple times as well, is Jio.
00:23:22 That one's up 10 plus percent.
00:23:24 There you go. 11 plus percent in trade as we speak.
00:23:29 How justifiable now in terms of valuations?
00:23:32 Of course, understandable. It has the backing of Reliance Industries.
00:23:38 But at the same time, at the moment, no real solid business inside the company yet.
00:23:47 And warranting these kind of valuations, do you think that there is cause of any concern
00:23:53 or do you think that the story is solid?
00:23:57 You know, Jio Financial is actually one of the best capitalized companies
00:24:01 for the scale of the business that it has.
00:24:04 That is one of the hallmarks of the group,
00:24:07 where the capitalized companies really adequately to take care of future growth.
00:24:11 So, now clearly while there are no revenues and therefore the valuation as it flows down,
00:24:19 you do not maybe justify on let's say one or two years.
00:24:23 But a business like Jio, which is a pure infrastructure business,
00:24:27 it ought to be valued on more on a discounted and a longer term time horizon.
00:24:32 So, given that it can achieve its ambition simply because it's adequately well capitalized
00:24:37 to support that growth, it is definitely worth looking at
00:24:43 and taking into account the potential that's there in the company.
00:24:47 11 percent higher. It was a call given in the morning, by the way,
00:24:50 by one of the technical experts there this morning.
00:24:53 So, quite stunning really. If you had money here as a trading player, Aditya, would you book profits?
00:24:59 Neeraj, to be honest, I would continue to hold on to it.
00:25:02 I believe from the highs though the stock has come off,
00:25:05 but we'll see a follow through buying in the stock
00:25:07 and maybe 350 is something that I'm eyeing on the stock.
00:25:09 So, there is another big upside which is left in the stock
00:25:12 and today the breakout is on extremely heavy volumes.
00:25:14 In fact, I'm not seeing any volume on the downside correction
00:25:17 that we have seen in the recent few hours.
00:25:20 So, I believe one should continue to hold and if they're looking for a fresh entry,
00:25:23 maybe closer to 330, they could get a fresh entry point with the stock at 320,
00:25:27 look for a target of 350 on the upside.
00:25:30 Great volumes on Geofin. Very strong volumes on Chemfab Alkalis
00:25:38 and on a stock called Tarmac, which is locked on a 20 percent circuit.
00:25:43 So, some pretty strong volume moves on to each of these relative to the averages.
00:25:49 The other one in focus is Sona Comstar.
00:25:51 Now, before we get Chakri in on this PLI thing, we spoke to the management,
00:25:56 the CFO Rohit Nanda, and on what the company's outlook is
00:26:00 after receiving this PLI scheme certification.
00:26:03 Listen into what he had to say.
00:26:06 It doesn't change our investment plan.
00:26:08 I mean, we had the investment plans in any case.
00:26:11 So, like I said, this is a product that we've now been making for two years.
00:26:16 But what this helps us with is it improves our competitiveness within the Indian market.
00:26:23 Right now, the focus is more on the Indian market for this particular product, I would say.
00:26:29 For the other products, which we filed for, you know, wherever there is a scope to export,
00:26:36 that's where I believe it increases or enhances the competitiveness in the international market.
00:26:41 So, as we go along and get more approvals, you know,
00:26:46 I hope that this helps us in improving our competitiveness at the international level,
00:26:52 even more than what it is today.
00:26:54 Okay. Chakri, we had mixed commentary from auto component majors,
00:27:02 like Bharat Forge commentary was very weak.
00:27:04 But we spoke to Sona today on this, plus whether the world growth looking shaky
00:27:10 might dampen their business prospects.
00:27:12 The answer was an unethical no.
00:27:14 My question to you is, what do you do with a business like Sona Comstar,
00:27:18 which is expensive but continues to develop new products,
00:27:22 BINS, PLI schemes, certifications, so on and so forth?
00:27:25 You know, there you have the answer, which is, you know,
00:27:28 the company's growth path is fairly well articulated,
00:27:30 and they do have a sufficient range of products.
00:27:34 And also the latest PLI scheme will help them lower the import substitution
00:27:39 and therefore improve the margins.
00:27:41 And mind you, as far as the export business is concerned,
00:27:44 it's clearly a cyclical weakness globally that we see.
00:27:47 And, you know, as and when those interest rates in the US peak,
00:27:50 and that cycle of spending, again, will revive.
00:27:55 And that will benefit all the auto and slurry car companies, including Sona Comstar.
00:27:59 And I think that is mainly the big differentiator,
00:28:03 which is there are a number of companies out there
00:28:05 which have articulated plans like Sona Comstar,
00:28:09 and I think, you know, they will continue to do well.
00:28:13 Okay. Well, that's Sona Comstar for you.
00:28:16 Doing well today, 5.5%.
00:28:18 This must be close to – actually, no, not close to life highs,
00:28:21 but very close to the recent one-month highs, I presume.
00:28:24 Just the one-year chart or the one-year performance of Sona Comstar,
00:28:27 the last one month it's had about 11% gain.
00:28:29 But if you just bring up what it has done over the different time periods,
00:28:33 steady, I mean, you probably have made money any point of time that you bought it, this stock.
00:28:39 Let's take a quick break.
00:28:41 On this other side, we'll get you some top BTSTs from Aditya Karwala
00:28:46 and, of course, some key stocks to focus on, on the fundamental side as well.
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00:33:26 Welcome back. You're watching India Market Close. Thanks for staying with us.
00:33:30 Now, there's a very, very interesting report by Goldman Sachs on Indian banks
00:33:35 and whether the Goldilocks period is truly over.
00:33:38 Let me first start off with what Goldman Sachs makes of, you know, how the banks are facing tons of headwind.
00:33:48 So, they've cut estimates firstly by 5% for FY25, 2% for FY26 with regard to earnings.
00:33:56 Why so? These headwinds that they are seeing, first off, they believe that there's going to be a slightly prolonged period
00:34:05 where there is going to be pressure with regard to cost of funds.
00:34:09 The rising consumer leverage is going to, you know, keep a cap or keep a lid on growth to a certain extent
00:34:16 because that has already been built in and there's going to be OPEX pressure going forward as well.
00:34:21 And all of that is going to impact ROAs. So, ROAs will start moderating is what they are suggesting.
00:34:26 But the positive, what they are saying is that valuations seem quite comfortable.
00:34:31 So, while they've downgraded a few, SBI, ICICI, SBI has run up quite well.
00:34:37 So, honestly, if you're a holder there, no complaints. They've downgraded it from a buy to a neutral, not really a sell.
00:34:44 And they expect a 4% downside now on SBI. ICICI, on the other hand, also downgraded to a neutral.
00:34:51 But they just have around single digit kind of an upside there.
00:34:55 They've downgraded yes in a big way. They've downgraded to a sell. 37% downside is what they see on Yes Bank.
00:35:03 Also, the Bajaj Finance, they've upgraded from a neutral, from a sell to a neutral.
00:35:11 2% upside is what they see there. Not meaningful. Last off, HDFC Bank is where they see real upside.
00:35:18 33% upside and they reiterate a buy. It's a very interesting note because, you know,
00:35:26 as most analysts continue to say and reiterate that financials is where the consensus buy is.
00:35:33 Let me first take it across to Chakri. Chakri, your views, it's there are plenty of headwinds as highlighted by Goldman.
00:35:42 What's your sense? Is financial still in the sweetest of spots despite all of that's happening, given the valuations?
00:35:52 The financials are in a very solid position. You know, the headwinds that they talk about are temporary at best.
00:35:58 You know, because a couple of things are happening. One, you have a big infrastructure push in India.
00:36:06 So that has pushed up the corporate loan growth rate, which was not there, let's say, three years ago.
00:36:11 Three years ago, you had a consumer who was strong. Now the consumer is weak.
00:36:16 Private banks in general have a greater private consumer exposure rather than a corporate exposure.
00:36:22 Therefore, PSU banks have benefited like SBI and will continue to benefit because the spend,
00:36:28 the order books are still pretty much evident. And second, you know, as US interest rates peak and then start cutting down,
00:36:35 RBI will also follow suit. At that point, the pressure on NIMS, which is fairly well articulated, will ease.
00:36:43 And that will improve the spread for the banks. More so, it'll actually help for the PSU banks rather than the private banks,
00:36:50 because the spend continues. And so I think, you know, whatever the headwinds are, maybe for a quarter or two,
00:36:58 but the valuations are very much intact. SBI have all those trades only at one time book.
00:37:03 On the other hand, an HDFC bank trades at about three times book.
00:37:08 Sure. Point taken, Chakri. Any specific names that are standing out for you within this space?
00:37:15 You did mention SBI, HDFC, anything within the smaller banking space and within the private banks,
00:37:22 any specific ones which you seem to like and within PSUs outside of SBI?
00:37:27 Within PSUs, if you look at, for instance, Union Bank of India, it did the QIP a couple of days ago.
00:37:33 So the bank, it raised about 3000 crores. It's extremely well capitalized.
00:37:39 And, you know, it still trades very much under book. Its balance sheet, its tier one ratios have improved with the capital raising.
00:37:47 All the provisions are very strong. And, you know, and therefore, I think the NIMS will kind of actually improve for the bank
00:37:55 if you fast forward to two or three quarters from now. So Union Bank is clearly looks good.
00:38:02 You know, the other thing was we did a conversation with JNK Bank this morning and targets of some very strong growth going ahead with better ratios.
00:38:11 GNP is moving down from four and a half at the end of FY 24 to maybe 3 percent is what you have to say.
00:38:18 Let's wait and watch if that turns out to be true. What else? In the last 20 minutes of trade left before the week ends
00:38:27 and there is certainly a big move in Usha Martin today. That stock is about 10 and a half.
00:38:33 I wonder if the move is coming. No, it's been steady, but it's just inched up a little bit in the last few minutes of trade.
00:38:40 And there's a big move in Astral today. Twenty eighty six percent higher. It's not a stock that moves up just randomly.
00:38:48 Strong move on very good volumes there. So Aditya, come in on this one. Astral in particular, 20, 80 and counting.
00:38:58 It's a very strong move and backed by healthy volumes. It's a breakout from a bullish flat pattern.
00:39:04 In fact, again, as a disclosure, this is one stock which is recommended to our clients. We have a target of 2200 on the upside.
00:39:10 I believe the stock is poised to test levels of 2200 immediately.
00:39:14 And once that is taken on, maybe 2300 can also be seen on the cards. On the downside again, 2000 is a good strong support.
00:39:21 Now, that was the hurdle which it wasn't able to cross for some time. Now, 2000 is a really good support area.
00:39:26 So one can go ahead and buy even at current levels with the target 2200 in mind and then 2300 with a stop loss at 2000 on the downside.
00:39:34 It's a very strong up move on the charts and should follow through in the coming sessions as well.
00:39:40 Got it. The other pocket is media. Chakri, today Zee, TV18, etc. are up.
00:39:45 And that's a spot that is starting to see some days of consistent advances before it kind of falters.
00:39:52 Now, it's not been a wealth creator for the last multiple years, if you will. Would you bet on a media name or are there better pockets there?
00:40:00 You know, Sun TV looks good. You know, it's valuation wise, it's a very inexpensive stock.
00:40:06 You know, their slate, both in their movie business as well as in their broadcasting business, is very strong.
00:40:12 Sun Digital is holding up rather well.
00:40:16 And so I think, you know, the other companies like Zee clearly have some of the issues that need to be taken care of.
00:40:24 So I think within media, I think Sun TV looks fairly well, fairly strong on a fundamental basis.
00:40:31 OK, keep that in mind. And before we get to real estate, just want to mark, I mean, Varsha was speaking about Adani,
00:40:40 Wilmar having seen multiple blocks. But I think today when you look at that space, I think that whole set of stocks have done well.
00:40:49 Standard disclaimer, of course, the Adani Group owns NDTV and you're watching NDTV Profit.
00:40:52 Adani Wilmar is up 8 percent. Adani Enterprises has come off a little bit, but still in the green.
00:40:57 Adani Ports was amongst the top gainers on the index. Ambuja, Ambuja Cement was up about in the session today, above that 600 mark, if I'm not wrong, 602.
00:41:07 So there's some bit of traction into some of these names. But what has been in a sweet spot is real estate.
00:41:13 In Q3, the real estate stocks had a really good move. Anushi brings in an overview of what the quarter was for real estate majors.
00:41:20 And why maybe Anushi, that the reported numbers need not be the correct depiction of how well the business, some of the businesses have done.
00:41:31 Absolutely, Neeraj. So if you had to look at the real estate companies, so first thing for any of the sectors that we look at is the P&L statement.
00:41:40 So if you had to look at the P&L statement and see some of the final measures over here, like the sales growth, the margins and the profit growth.
00:41:48 Yeah, for the major companies over here, DLF, Macrotech, Godrej, Prestige and Brigades.
00:41:53 So if we see that the DLF has a pretty good quarter, while the likes of Prestige Estates see about a 22.5% of a sales decline, while its profit growth was down about 2%.
00:42:05 But it is very important to note that for a real estate company, the main emphasis is on its other metrics rather than the P&L statement.
00:42:13 This is due to the revenue recognition that happens in which the companies follows a percentage completion and a project completion method and a percentage completion method.
00:42:22 So this is on the account of the deferred revenue of the previous projects that have already taken place.
00:42:28 So some of the key measures that we should be looking at is the pre-sales growth versus the pre-sales growth.
00:42:33 So DLF over here had marked FY24 guidance of about 13,000 crore, which it has already surpassed in a nine month period itself.
00:42:41 If you had to look at Godrej Properties and Brigade Enterprises, they are also pretty close, about 90% level over here, 13,008 crore against the 14,000 guidance
00:42:51 that they had given and about 3,697 crore of revenue against the 4,600 crore.
00:42:57 Almost all of them have registered a double digit growth.
00:43:00 So this shows the kind of demand momentum that we are seeing from the consumer and for all five major of these companies.
00:43:07 Next key focus should be on the collections.
00:43:10 So now demand is one side, like the number of bookings that we look at.
00:43:14 But is this converting into cash?
00:43:16 That is one metric that is again important to watch out for.
00:43:19 So 79% DLF continues to lead the pack in this one as well.
00:43:23 79% growth over here, while Macrotech did see about a 1% of a muted growth, while the others continue to remain in the double digit growth trajectory.
00:43:33 So 6,700 crore from Godrej Properties as well.
00:43:37 Next on, moving on to the other print that we are to focus on is the kind of the launches are they making and the new deals that we expect.
00:43:46 So over here we can see the net debt also.
00:43:49 Net debt continues to remain a key monitorable, especially after the COVID factors,
00:43:54 while the company have been trying to keep that debt to equity ratios in the 1% in the below the 1 range.
00:44:02 So over here, net debt, if you had to look at for the major companies,
00:44:06 so DLF continues to remain in a net cash positive position of about 1,246 crores in the net cash,
00:44:14 while its net operating cash flows is about 3,282 crores.
00:44:18 So again, Macrotech developers, Brigade and Prestige, if you had to look at their debt levels,
00:44:24 so that has also seen about a little bit of an uptick, but this is also on the count of the kind of launches that are making.
00:44:32 So that remains a key monitorable.
00:44:34 On the other side, we have to compare the net debt levels to the operating cash flows that the business generates
00:44:40 to get an overall sense of if the company can support these launches going ahead.
00:44:46 Now, on to what should we expect forward for these kind of companies is A, the new launches that the companies are making.
00:44:53 So if you had to, as per Annual Rock, about 25% of annual growth in the calendar year 23 period itself.
00:45:00 So this expectation of launches is expected to continue with the demand,
00:45:04 clearly outpacing the number of launches that the company is planning out for.
00:45:08 So this puts the real estate in a quite sweet spot.
00:45:12 Further is the expected demand. So this was mentioned about the demand will outpace the supply.
00:45:18 Another area of strength is the launch pipeline that the companies are guiding for.
00:45:23 Just for an example, DLF has a fresh pipeline of about 32 million square feet,
00:45:28 which has a sales potential of about 79,000 crores.
00:45:31 So some strong pipeline numbers over here.
00:45:34 Next on to the focus is the sale of luxury homes that are seen.
00:45:39 So according to a CBRA report, about 4 crore houses have seen about a 75% growth.
00:45:45 So main driving factor for this, if you had to look at region wise, is also Delhi.
00:45:50 If you had to look at Delhi, so that has also seen about a significant increase in growth-rich properties marking their foray in there.
00:45:57 But some key monitorables over here, debt levels are seen rising as we had explained earlier,
00:46:02 because of the launches that the companies are making and the expectation that it is going forward.
00:46:10 But on this other end, what is comforting is the inventory, the unsold inventory levels going down.
00:46:17 So that is another factor that we should be launching on.
00:46:20 So overall a sweet spot for all the real estate companies.
00:46:23 And this was the overall roundup of the calendar year 23.
00:46:26 So let's watch forward for calendar year 24 if there is going to be expected revision in the guidance that they have given going forward.
00:46:34 Thanks. Thanks for that. Well, not a bad time.
00:46:38 But Chakri, a number of stocks have done reasonably well from a stock performance as well as from a fundamental performance.
00:46:48 Do you like any of the real estate businesses?
00:46:52 You know, the real estate looks strong because in the last one, one and a half years, they kind of liquidated their inventory.
00:46:59 I mean, the inventory that was built up is being liquidated now.
00:47:03 So that helps the cash flow of each one of these companies.
00:47:08 Second, if you fast forward, let's say about six months from now, interest rates are expected to be far lower than what they are today.
00:47:15 That will be the start of a cycle of cutting of rates.
00:47:19 And 90 percent of all home loans in India are on a floating rate basis.
00:47:25 And therefore, you know, the EMIs will fall in the coming cycle.
00:47:29 And that is always a very positive catalyst for real estate companies' sales.
00:47:35 So against that backdrop, I think ShowBot Developers looks good.
00:47:39 Aloga Macrotech looks OK.
00:47:41 And Prestige is again fundamentally a company which looks fairly strong because they have exposure to both commercial as well as residential.
00:47:50 Got it. Point taken, Chakri. You know, any interesting names in real estate which you prefer, Aditya, on charts?
00:47:58 Of course, real estate has had a very solid run over the last year or so.
00:48:03 But anything looking good on charts for you? Maybe two names?
00:48:08 Harsh, I'll give you one name. Maybe I'll give you two names.
00:48:11 But to be honest, most of the stocks have run up too sharp in the last one or two years.
00:48:16 So not many names where I find good risk to reward ratio.
00:48:20 One stock which definitely pops up is Godrej Properties. In fact, that is one of the BTSD calls as well.
00:48:25 One should definitely look at adding fresh long positions here for a target of 2630 to about 2700 on the upside.
00:48:31 With a good support at 2380 to about 2350 on the downside.
00:48:35 Looks like this is one trade one should definitely look at.
00:48:38 The second stock is Suntech Realty. This stock after a breakout has entered into consolidation again after a decent up move.
00:48:45 Maybe with a good support closer to about 460 on the downside, one can look at 550 odd levels on the upside, which should give you good returns.
00:48:54 This will be more of a positional trade. Godrej Properties should see immediate upside maybe next week itself.
00:49:01 Sure point taken. Aditya, while we are at it, your BTSD or rather buy today, sell next week ideas.
00:49:10 Absolutely. So one I've already shared, which is Godrej Properties buy today, sell next week.
00:49:16 Second will be Aditya Birla Capital. Looks very interesting on the chart structures after a breakout stock again went into consolidation.
00:49:23 And today's up move is backed by extremely healthy volumes.
00:49:26 In fact, it has gulped its last week's entire volume, which looks very interesting.
00:49:31 I believe it's a good trade to take at current levels. The price hasn't moved up big time, but the volume structure is strong.
00:49:38 I see levels of 201 next week sometime with a stop loss at 180. Looks like a good trade to take.
00:49:46 Certainly looks like a good trade if that goes to 201. But let me quickly also have Chakri's views.
00:49:54 Chakri, you know, one stock that was a buzz in trade today, especially, especially at the start of trade was Hunasa.
00:50:02 We had a very interesting note coming in from Citi. Super bullish on Hunasa.
00:50:06 They are expecting growth outperformance led by company specific initiatives.
00:50:11 They're also saying that they see strong growth with regard to business prospects as well as improving financial metrics.
00:50:19 They're estimating revenue to post 25 percent CAGR over FY 24 to 26 and EBITDA to grow at a faster clip of 55 percent CAGR.
00:50:31 Firstly, if at all you do cover this one, you know, we've already seen almost a 50 percent run up in the stock price from that 300 odd levels to 450.
00:50:42 Do you still see that kind of value in this one? And if so, how do you rate it in terms of value?
00:50:52 You know, I haven't really looked quite deeply into this company, but Mama Earth is a very strong brand.
00:50:58 And, you know, there are some number of initiatives with the company's taking, which will improve their margins.
00:51:04 And I think so from that perspective, I think the company is well positioned because, you know, online fashions, etc.
00:51:11 are becoming exceedingly important source of revenue.
00:51:18 OK, well, Chakri, just wondering if you haven't looked at Hunasa, which is fine, but just wondering,
00:51:25 is there a business that you believe is worth looking at at the current juncture, at the current valuations?
00:51:36 The valuations might be a bit steep. You know, all these companies have the same old pattern,
00:51:41 which is basically a lot of it is future growth, which has to materialize at some point.
00:51:46 And I think that remains to be seen. But I think the brand itself is a strong brand.
00:51:54 But other than that, I haven't spent too much time on the fundamentals of the company.
00:51:59 But no, no, I mean, any other business, forget Hunasa, give us a recommendation is the point I'm making.
00:52:06 But, you know, the whole space is basically the valuations are very, very steep.
00:52:11 And, you know, so it comes and goes. It depends a lot on execution.
00:52:15 This largely as a space, you know, I have stayed away from it.
00:52:18 So in this particular space, I'm sorry, I don't have a buy on any of this.
00:52:23 No, no, I didn't mean this space, Chakri. But anyway, be that as it may, I didn't mean this space.
00:52:27 I'm just saying any space market wide, 6500 stocks. Give me one idea.
00:52:31 Oh, yeah, yeah, surely. Of course, you know, you know, hotels and space is done very well.
00:52:36 The large ones, Indian hotel, chalet, they've all done.
00:52:39 So if you step one level down, which is Park Hotels, you know, APJ Park Hotels, that company went public recently.
00:52:49 It has about 30 properties, about 10 owned and leased and balance are all on contract basis.
00:52:55 It's ARRs are very strong. Margins are improving. Valuations are a good 30, 40 percent discount to an Indian hotel and a chalet.
00:53:03 So I think fundamentally that company is looking strong because, you know, the luxury spend is still pretty much intact.
00:53:09 By the way, some flashes on your screen. And Alex got this thing from the FDA spokesperson as well.
00:53:15 But Westlife clarifying that there is no issue with the products that they are using.
00:53:20 Remember, the stock has taken a bit of a stick on a result of this and actually post numbers to from thousand odd rupees that Westlife used to trade at.
00:53:28 The stock is down to 800. That's a steep 20 percent fall in less than three months for Westlife.
00:53:34 And the issues don't seem to be going away. But they are engaging with authorities over the fake cheese piece that has kind of enveloped
00:53:44 this business. But it's not just this. Right. I mean, some of these QSR names have had fairly sluggish same store sales growth in quarter three numbers that got released.
00:53:59 In fact, for Westlife, it was negative. But for the others as well, it wasn't the strongest.
00:54:04 Much as we talk about an underpenetrated market, Chakri, are there other chinks in the armor for the QSRs?
00:54:12 The QSR margins and same store sales have slowed down quite a lot in the last two years.
00:54:18 If you look at whether it's Devyani or Jubilant or Westlife, company specific issues aside, generally the same store sales rate has come has moved down.
00:54:27 Larger competition. You know, before you had Domino's pizza was the only game in town.
00:54:32 Today, just about every every other restaurant serves pizza. And also, you know, Swiggy has made delivery so much more easier,
00:54:39 which was the main factor for, let's say, for a Jubilant food. So that way, you know, all those which were market barriers or attractive points for these companies are kind of diluted down.
00:54:52 And the stocks and the valuations have corrected. So but I think this is a space that's worth watching because the valuations are reaching more reasonable levels now.
00:55:02 Got your point, Chakri. Aditya, any names you like within this space?
00:55:07 Maybe just a Sapphire Foods, Harshan, predominantly because I'm seeing a good up move for the past couple of trading sessions backed by good volumes.
00:55:15 Can test levels of 1560-1300 on the upside. Apart from that, I'll give the space a miss.
00:55:21 Most of the stocks are looking weak. Be it Westlife, Jubilant Food, Devyani or RBA. Just Sapphire Foods looks interesting to me.
00:55:29 Sure. And, you know, the other one really looking a bit weak, at least it was. Last I checked was a Maruti on the back of that Macquarie note that came through.
00:55:39 In fact, probably within the top five losers for the day today, slipped over 1% now.
00:55:46 What's your sense, Aditya? Is this possibly a good time to make a trade?
00:55:55 Depends what side of the trade you want to take. If it's a short trade, no, I would not want to go ahead and initiate a short trade because immediate supports are at 11,400 on the downside.
00:56:05 And just for 100 bucks, I don't want to trade the trade here because I'm not too sure if it will test 11,400 as well.
00:56:12 It's a very strong up move that we had seen last week and this week itself. Just a profit booking for a day that I'm looking at the chart structure.
00:56:19 So closer to about 11,400, 11,350, I would be a buyer in the stock for a target of 11,800, about 12,000 on the upside with the stock price at 11,200, 300.
00:56:31 I would avoid taking a short trade in Maruti at current levels. Just for one day, I would still believe that the uptrend is still intact, not as reversed.
00:56:39 Okay. Well, Aditya and Chakri, take a moment to thank both of you for joining on the show today and giving us your thoughts.
00:56:47 Really appreciate your time and have a great weekend. But here's how the markets are shutting shop and pretty not too much different from how we started off,
00:56:55 but for the fact that some of the winners may have changed a little bit. So, for example, let's get the heat map up and then Harsh will, of course, come and talk about the broadening of the spectrum.
00:57:04 We just get the heat map up. We added Ani Enterprises amongst the top gainers and now it's kind of 0.3 percent, but it's the life insurance companies, Bajaj FinServ, SBA Life, HDFC Life, which have done well.
00:57:21 I don't know if something's come up in the insurance space, but clearly there is some bit of uptick that we're seeing in the life insurance names in the session today.
00:57:32 In the last half an hour, they bring up the intraday of Bajaj FinServ or SBA Life for a moment before we get back to the heat map.
00:57:40 But let's just get the intraday going here and just see if there is some bit of uptick that's happened there.
00:57:46 By the way, the number of Quantum of Red is far higher than the Quantum of Green. So that's the other thing. Here's the intraday.
00:57:51 I think there's a bit of a spike that came in, but right now FinServ or the other two are right up there.
00:57:58 Or maybe it's a factor that they are holding forth, but some of the other stocks have actually come off from the highs of the day, which is why this might be happening.
00:58:06 The Nifty is closing in or around the low point of the day, if you will, as well. So maybe that is also impacting these stocks in the session today.
00:58:14 Bring up the mid cap and the small cap indices as well later on. But in terms of the, OK, let's get them going.
00:58:21 About 0.2% for the mid cap index. So it's like quite off from the highs of the day. And I guess the small cap index too, kind of holding forth, but certainly off.
00:58:30 And before I toss it over to Harsh, just keep in mind that some of the oil PSUs and others are sulking in the session today.
00:58:38 Asian Paints certainly is also sulking in the session. But Harsh, what about the broader end of the spectrum?
00:58:43 Yeah, the broader end, Neeraj, you know, I'm going to first start off with something like an Astral on the back of volumes.
00:58:50 Paytm is up 5% by the way again today. That's one that we've missed marking on the show.
00:58:56 But we'll mark that. There you go. Markets have closed. There you go. Paytm up 5% at close.
00:59:01 But outside of that, let's just take you to through the regular names, which we've already done.
00:59:07 Vodafone, let's have a quick check on where that one has closed in at 7.5 plus percent higher.
00:59:13 Indus Tower is also doing fairly well. These are the top two gainers on the mid cap.
00:59:18 There you go. Almost 7% higher on Indus as well. You add the likes of a Jupiter Life acquired land in Pune.
00:59:25 That one has also gained 6 plus percent. Salasa Tecno, IRCTC, Honasa, all of which have closed well above, well in the green.
00:59:35 3% higher on IRCTC as well. Honasa also up around 2.5. Let's also mark out a Geofence.
00:59:40 See where that one's closed out at. It's had a fantastic day of trade.
00:59:45 Off the day's highs, but 10.5% a strong gain for that one as well.
00:59:51 In terms of the losers, some of the ones which we've not marked first off, NHPC is closing as probably within the top three losers within the nifty mid cap today.
01:00:01 2.7%. Then you have the likes of some of the QSR names, Divyani, Westlife, both of which closed lower as well.
01:00:08 Some of those stocks in focus, some of those sectors in focus as well, Neeraj, as we close the day as well as close the week.
01:00:15 On that note, from Harshmi and the team that put this show together, thanks so much for tuning in and have a great weekend.
01:00:22 .
01:00:29 (upbeat music)