With #Jefferies rating #AsianPaints a 'Underperform' and #Macquarie maintaining 'Outperform', what's going on with the stock?
Get your queries answered by our guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
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01:41 Good morning and thanks so much for joining in.
01:43 You're watching Ask Profit on NDTV Profit.
01:45 My name is Alex Mathieu and with me is Priti Chaudhary.
01:48 We'll take you through the next half an hour or so of trade.
01:51 This show is geared up to get you answers to all of your stock related questions.
01:54 So if you're tuning in on any one of our social media platforms,
01:58 then use the comment section to send us questions.
02:00 Or in fact, you can send us questions on the WhatsApp number that should be
02:04 flashing at the bottom of your screen.
02:06 For now, let's very quickly turn to how the markets are faring.
02:09 And it's a bit of a muted start to trade in the equity markets here in India.
02:14 But this is more or less what you're seeing across the globe.
02:17 You're seeing a bit of a risk of sentiment playing out globally.
02:21 And you have the nifty 50 that's trading very close to the low point of the day,
02:25 down about 0.4%.
02:26 And in fact, let's also take a look at the broader markets to see how it's going.
02:30 It's a little bit of a mixed bag here.
02:33 So you have the mid cap index that's trading with cuts of about half a percent.
02:36 But you have the small cap index that's trading more or
02:39 less flat, but also at the low point of the day.
02:41 Let's also very quickly take you through the advanced decline ratio,
02:44 because that will give you a sense of what the market breadth is like.
02:48 And you have more declines at this stage than advances.
02:51 That was, of course, a different scenario at the start of trade today.
02:55 Among the key indices to focus in on, let's look at the top performers.
02:58 In fact, you have the IT index that's the weakest performer.
03:02 In fact, most indices are losing ground.
03:05 But you also have realty as a pack that's down in trade today, down about 0.9%.
03:11 And you have metals also that are underperforming.
03:13 The only two sectors that are doing reasonably okay or
03:16 that are holding out in green territory are the energy and the media index.
03:21 Lots happening in those spaces as well.
03:23 But let's jump straight into the focus for the day.
03:27 And Smriti's got the focus.
03:29 It is Asian paint, Smriti.
03:30 >> Yes, and it is the biggest loser on the nifty 50 today.
03:34 Now this comes on the back of Grasim launching its paint business.
03:38 And they've launched it in such a big way that it has become,
03:43 now we're yet to see this sort of intense competition in the paints market.
03:48 Just to give you an understanding of where,
03:51 what the brokerages are thinking of at this point, it's kind of mixed bag out there.
03:55 So for example, there's Jeffries that says that on the paints business,
04:02 it's given an underperformed rating to Asian paints with a target price of 2,500.
04:08 Then paints has never seen such a massive capacity build up.
04:11 Now in one of the notes I read that Grasim's capacity, Alex,
04:17 is combined capacity of its second, third, and fourth player in the paints business.
04:22 So that's how big Grasim's paints capacity will be like.
04:27 Now if you look at CLSA, it says it has also lowered its target price from 3,017
04:34 to 2,425, it says that in the shorter term it'll affect the growth and
04:39 the margins for the Asian paints business.
04:40 But in the longer term, it'll probably continue to perform and continue to grow.
04:46 Now however, there'll be intense competition in terms of retaining dealers and
04:50 customers.
04:51 It has cut the FI 26 estimates to 8% growth, and for 26 to 10%.
05:01 Now, RO is also supposed to fall to 26.9% in FY 26 from 32.7% in FY 24.
05:09 That's pretty much the picture, not a rosy picture for Asian paints.
05:14 Now I'll bring in our guests for today.
05:18 We have Gaurang Shah of GeoGeek Financial Services and
05:21 Rajesh Palviya of Access Securities joining in.
05:24 Welcome to both of you and thanks for taking the time out.
05:27 >> Thank you.
05:29 >> Now, Gaurang, I'll come to you on Asian paints,
05:32 intense competition from Grasim and we've seen brokerages pretty much
05:38 not as constructive on Asian paints as they were before.
05:42 What's your view on this?
05:43 >> Thank you, Smriti, for having me on the show and morning to all of you all.
05:48 So before I comment on Asian paints because of this new competition in form
05:52 of Grasim that has entered the market, let me give you two very recent instances,
05:57 similar but a different sector.
06:00 I think you and Alex will definitely remember that Aishwarya Motor was under
06:05 pressure because of Royal Enfield Motorcycle, there were two new entrants.
06:10 One was in form of Bajaj Triumph and the other was in form of Hero Harley.
06:16 They launched 400 and 440cc motorcycles in that segment where
06:21 there was huge dominance of Royal Enfield RE motorcycles which is manufactured by
06:25 Aishwarya Motors.
06:27 Stock got hammered from 34, 3500 to 3200 or thereabouts and
06:31 then the stock has recovered.
06:33 Then there was a new IPO from Tata Group after decades called Tata Technologies.
06:39 KPIT Technologies got hammered because this new listing was happening.
06:43 It went to 1200 or below and has recovered.
06:47 What I'm trying to say, Smriti, is that competition, new entrant coming in any
06:51 sector is always very good, at least for the consumers like you and me,
06:55 because it brings in fair pricing and better products at every level.
07:01 India is a huge market for relevant sectors, whether it is going to be paint,
07:08 whether it is going to be cement, and even cement, when Adani entered cement,
07:12 most of the cement companies got hammered because everybody thought that it's going
07:15 to be a big bang competition and market share is going to be lost.
07:18 So we fundamentally, from a long term point of view,
07:23 we are still maintaining our bi-pollination paints.
07:25 Our targets are somewhere close to about 3300.
07:28 News based knee jerk reaction like 4% down today should not
07:33 nervous you in terms of your long term investment.
07:36 In case if you are willing to buy it and waiting for an opportunity like this to
07:41 come through, I think it's a great opportunity.
07:43 Paint sector is directly associated with real estate sector as far as new
07:47 auto market is concerned.
07:48 And people do get their homes renovated and painted again.
07:54 That's also a reorder or replacement market has been plotted,
07:57 which is going to be huge.
07:58 Asian paints is not only present in India, but
08:00 it's got its operations in overseas market also.
08:03 Knee jerk reaction like this should not dampen the spirits of long term investors.
08:07 Fair point.
08:09 It has, in fact, over the year to date period lost quite a bit of ground.
08:13 So Gaurang, what you're saying in terms of a buying or
08:16 accumulation opportunity perhaps exists for this count on the fundamentals.
08:21 Let's jump straight into the questions.
08:23 We've got the first one coming in from Ved.
08:26 Ved is writing in from Hyderabad and asking about Suzlon.
08:31 Now, he bought it at a time when it was a penny stock, but
08:34 it isn't a penny stock anymore.
08:37 In fact, he'd bought at sub four levels and he's got as many as 4,000 shares.
08:43 So he's making quite a bit of money on this one.
08:46 The question, Rajesh, is to you whether he should hold or
08:48 exit completely or should he partially exit his holding?
08:52 >> Morning.
08:56 So after a long consolidation, the stock managed to break out on the monthly as
09:01 well as on the yearly chart, looking at the overall structure for medium term
09:05 perspective, it's on the bullish side as the stock is comfortably holding about 39 mark.
09:11 So till the stock is holding about 39,
09:13 I think he should hold the position as the overall structure for
09:17 medium term is on the bullish side.
09:19 And we believe that once the stock manages to cross about 47,
09:23 48 mark, then possibly this really can extend towards 58 to 65 kind of level also.
09:30 So hold the position with stop loss of 39.
09:34 >> All right, next up we have a question from Vijay from Bangalore and
09:38 they're talking about NHPC.
09:39 They bought at slightly elevated levels of 107.
09:43 It's currently trading around 92 levels.
09:45 Gaurang, this has been a multi bagger.
09:47 We've seen the run up in PSU stocks, but do you think there's more of an upside
09:53 from a longer term perspective in NHPC or should you maybe get out of the stock?
09:58 >> So, Smriti, I'll comment on the sector that is power generation and
10:01 post listing there were two stocks, NHPC and SJBN.
10:07 They languished below the IPO price for a very, very long period of time.
10:12 Post this listing and of course the changes that the government made in terms of
10:18 power generation sector, all companies which are associated with power generation
10:23 where we have coverage likes of NTPC, Tata Power, CSE have moved up to
10:28 a very decent level and so is the case for NHPC and SJBN.
10:32 Now, no specific comments in terms of buy, sell and hold, but
10:35 the future for power generating, power transmission and
10:39 power equipment looks very, very strong because the government has planned huge
10:43 capex to the tune of almost 500 gigawatts in the next three to five years.
10:48 And most of that is going to be solar and wind.
10:50 So all power generating companies are going to get benefited because of that.
10:54 One comment specific because we don't have coverage on NHPC.
10:58 >> Okay, so there is another question coming in from Farnai.
11:03 And he's asking about IREDA, which is listed not too long back.
11:09 And NTPC also in the power space, of course, this is thermal power generation,
11:13 right?
11:14 He's bought both and he says that he's seeing a loss on this.
11:20 I'm guessing that he didn't get in at IPO level, Gaurang.
11:24 What would you say about the fundamentals of these two counters though?
11:29 >> IREDA is more of a company which finances renewable power plants,
11:35 like solar and wind, Alex.
11:37 We had a subscribe recommendation from a long term point of view on IREDA,
11:45 but that floor of IPO was 36 rupees, correct me if I'm wrong, Alex.
11:50 From that level, the stock went up to 200 rupees, and
11:52 now it has corrected to somewhere close to about 150.
11:56 I don't know what level this gentleman is interested in, but
11:59 in case if it is from a long term point of view, it depends.
12:01 >> I have a clarification.
12:02 In fact, while I was asking you the question, I asked him.
12:05 And he has said that he's bought at levels of 168 for IREDA.
12:09 The stock is currently at a lower circuit today, and
12:14 it's trading at around 150.
12:16 And NTPC here is bought at levels of 344.
12:21 So how does that change your perspective?
12:24 >> I am assuming that these investments are from a long term point of view.
12:28 So when IREDA 5% down today, maybe it can possibly come down because in
12:34 terms of valuation, it looks a little bit stretched, even at current levels.
12:38 Though it has corrected from 200 rupees per piece IREDA, Alex.
12:43 Maybe if it comes down, if he's got investable amount,
12:45 depending upon that IPO note that we had covered,
12:48 he can possibly add at lower levels from a long term point of view.
12:52 NTPC 2, Alex, we have a fundamental coverage from a long term point of view.
12:56 So don't get disheartened if you bought good stocks,
12:59 even if it is at an elevated level.
13:01 Provided you have a long term time horizon, I don't think it's going to
13:05 have any kind of huge meaningful impact on your capital that you had invested.
13:10 >> All right, next up we have a question from Sadanan and
13:13 they're talking about Tech Mahindra.
13:15 They say they've bought 1 lakh shares and
13:17 they're sitting on an 18% profit on the stock.
13:20 Now from a long term perspective, would you suggest Tech Mahindra or
13:24 they're saying should they switch to intellect design?
13:28 Gaurang, this is for the longer term.
13:32 >> Yeah, so I'm sure I wouldn't get the level at which this investment was
13:37 blitzsmithy, but fundamentally we have coverage on Tech Mahindra.
13:42 One of those companies which had a huge dominance of one large player that is BT.
13:48 That dominance has now become a thing of the past and
13:50 they have added some very decent large clients to their client list.
13:55 In terms of performance of IT sector, Smriti, we believe starting 1st April 24,
14:00 that is the new financial year, slowly, steadily,
14:04 earnings are going to get improved for the IT sector.
14:06 And that might possibly translate into re-rating of some of these stocks.
14:10 So if you are in for a long term point of view,
14:12 Tech Mahindra is what we would recommend to hold.
14:15 >> We've got Parveen who bought Larsen and
14:18 Toubro about three years back at levels of 1,100.
14:23 Quite the attractive level to buy at,
14:25 because the stock is currently trading just shy of 3,460.
14:30 In fact, it hit a high of 3,708 just about a month or so ago,
14:36 and it has seen a bit of a dip since then.
14:39 She's looking to hold for another six months, she's got 900 shares.
14:43 Rajesh, the question is, should she hold on, should she book some profits?
14:48 What level should she watch out for?
14:49 >> Well, overall, the structure for
14:53 IIT is on the bullish side, though there was some corrective moves since
14:56 last couple of weeks.
14:57 But still, if we analyze the near term to short term structure,
15:01 the stock is now again holding about a 50 day moving average and
15:05 now trying to penetrate 20 day moving average also.
15:08 Looking at the near term structure,
15:10 we believe that until the stock is holding above 3,300 mark,
15:14 I think there is no as such worry in terms of near term trend.
15:18 Long term trend is on the bullish side, so
15:20 I think if they can hold it for a long term perspective, there is no as such worry.
15:24 I think that trend is likely to remain on the bullish side and
15:27 possible target, we can see towards 3,600, 3,700 also for L&T.
15:33 But for near term perspective, I think they can trail now a stop loss towards 3,300.
15:38 Till these levels are in tact, they can hold on their position on the higher side.
15:42 Once the stock manages to cross about 3,550,
15:45 possible target we can see on towards 3,600 to 3,700 also on the coming months.
15:51 >> All right, we'll slip into a short break and after the break,
15:56 we'll take all your questions, so keep writing to us.
16:00 See you on the other side.
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19:54 >> Welcome back, you're watching Ask Profit.
19:56 Let's quickly dive into the questions.
19:59 This one's coming from, this one's on South Indian Bank and
20:03 this is from Karthik from Vishakhapatnam.
20:07 Now they're talking about they already have shares and
20:11 they bought at a price of 28 per piece.
20:14 Now there's a rights issue, sorry, there's a rights issue that's coming out for
20:17 South Indian Bank and they want to know if they should subscribe to it.
20:21 Now, Gaurang, from what I understand the subscriber rights issue is at 22 rupees
20:26 per share.
20:27 So would you suggest them buying into this?
20:31 >> This is South Indian Bank that they're talking about?
20:33 >> Yes.
20:35 >> So I mean, again, from a long term point of view,
20:38 this is one bank, Smriti, that was a laggard between 15 and 20 rupees.
20:45 Trusted a lot of investors but
20:47 most of the earnings that were seen in quarter two and quarter three,
20:51 there's been a meaningful turnaround.
20:54 We have a positive coverage on South Indian Bank from a long term point of
20:58 view. So if you want to go for this issue,
21:00 from a long term point of view, we would recommend to do that.
21:04 >> Fair point.
21:06 We've got Parambrata who's writing and asking about two front line companies,
21:11 HDFC Bank as well as ITC from a medium term perspective.
21:17 I'm not really sure what that is, but I would assume that this is more than a
21:22 year. Gaurang, from that perspective,
21:23 would you suggest a fresh entry on the fundamentals?
21:26 >> Well, I would definitely. HDFC has been one of those testing times,
21:31 Alex, post the merger.
21:33 We all were excited on the street.
21:35 Then there was some report on margin pressure, stock corrected.
21:40 There was a little bit of downward commentary in terms of margins from the
21:46 management side, post the third quarter numbers.
21:48 But let us not wipe out the entire history of HDFC Bank,
21:52 being the short term issues or speed breakers.
21:57 We are maintaining a positive coverage on HDFC Bank,
22:00 and a target of about 2,000 rupees from a long term point of view.
22:03 So and so forth for ITC.
22:06 Again, one of those FMCG companies, a large cap,
22:10 but was in a hibernation for a pretty long period of time.
22:13 Has come out of that.
22:15 Then there was a new flow about British American Tobacco wanting to offload the
22:18 state. The hotel business, the merger didn't go down well.
22:21 Stock is corrected.
22:23 We are maintaining targets of 465 to 470 in ITC from a long term point of
22:27 view.
22:28 Next up, we're talking about Nestle.
22:31 Swaroop has written to us on YouTube and they want to buy into the stock from a
22:36 longer term perspective.
22:37 We'll take a short term perspective on this from a point of view that if this
22:41 is a good time to enter the stock or should he wait.
22:44 But first Gaurang, tell us from the longer term perspective for Nestle.
22:49 Okay.
22:50 You know, a company, an MNC company,
22:54 Smriti who's been in India for a pretty long period of time,
22:58 multi decades,
22:59 has got some real strong,
23:01 powerful brands and has dominance in possibly across product offering.
23:07 From a long term point of view,
23:10 yes, we would advise to invest in Nestle.
23:13 Right. And Rajesh,
23:14 what are the levels that you would suggest buying levels for Nestle?
23:18 So overall,
23:21 our stock structure is in bullish side, series of higher top,
23:24 higher bottom formation on daily, weekly chart time.
23:26 And that clearly shows there is the sustained buying action is taking place in
23:29 the stock.
23:31 We have seen some bit of correction in last couple of months,
23:34 but looking at the near term, short term structure, 2400, 2450 is the right
23:40 level again to buy and accumulate this stock.
23:43 Stock has formed a support base around those levels and some pullback action
23:49 is taking place.
23:50 So I think if you get any opportunity towards 2450,
23:54 that's the attractive level again to reenter in the stock.
23:57 On the higher side,
23:58 once the stock process about 2650,
24:00 then possible target we can see towards 2800 to 2900 also.
24:05 Overall structure is bullish,
24:06 so buy and take should be your strategy.
24:08 2450 is the right level again to reenter in the stock.
24:11 Okay, fair point.
24:12 Naman Deora from Kolkata is asking this next question and a couple of counters
24:16 here, Gauram, for you to consider.
24:18 One is Tata Steel and the other is IRB Infra.
24:21 Now I'm looking at the year to date and this is 2024 for IRB and it's up
24:26 quite significantly in that time frame.
24:28 He's asking which of these two, between Tata Steel and IRB,
24:32 is the better option for an SIP kind of an approach to accumulate?
24:37 So Alex, between Tata Steel and IRB,
24:42 well I'll keep my comments restricted to Tata Steel because that is where
24:46 we have a coverage. On IRB we don't have a coverage,
24:49 but I can give him an option in terms of alternative investment idea and
24:54 construction infrastructure. So Tata Steel, yes,
24:57 we have a fundamental coverage and on the Infra side,
25:00 we like names like NCC Limited, BNC Infra and KNR Constructions.
25:05 I would suggest instead of putting all his money into one particular sector
25:11 or one company,
25:12 you can go 50-50 select any of these three companies that I have mentioned in
25:17 Infra and definitely Tata Steel in metals.
25:20 All right. Next up we have a question from Kevin.
25:23 They've bought 100 shares of UPL at an average price of 630,
25:28 so slightly elevated levels, Rajesh,
25:31 but we've seen a downturn in the stock,
25:34 even if you look at the last one year performance,
25:38 it's down about 31%.
25:40 Now Kevin wants to know if he should maybe get out of the stock if there's
25:44 not a substantial upside in this.
25:46 Yes, Prati, clearly stock is in downtrend.
25:51 Stock is moving in falling channel, down-sloping channel in monthly chart.
25:55 That clearly shows that medium-term structure is also bearish.
25:58 Stock is trading below to all its long-term, short-term moving averages,
26:02 series of lower-top, lower-bottom formation.
26:04 So these all adding that on a technical ground,
26:07 yes, stock is in bearish trend and we may see, you know,
26:11 whatever pullbacks we are getting in this stock is meeting to the supply
26:14 pressure on higher side.
26:16 Until the stock not crosses above 550, 560 zone,
26:20 it may remain under pressure only.
26:22 Looking at the near-term structure, if it breaks below 470 mark,
26:27 then possible downside we can see towards 450, 440 also.
26:31 So I think if you get any opportunity in pullback towards 550 kind of
26:36 zone, you should try to exit from this stock as the trend is still
26:41 in the weaker side.
26:42 Only if it crosses above 600 mark,
26:45 then only the trend will turn on the bullish side until we may see
26:50 a supply pressure, whatever pullbacks we are getting in the near-term
26:54 as well as the short-term.
26:55 Rajesh, another one for you.
26:56 This one's on Alok Industries and we've got Selva Pandey from Madurai,
27:01 Tamil Nadu is asking about this counter.
27:03 He's bought at levels of 16.5.
27:05 The stock is currently trading very close to the 30 rupee mark.
27:08 He's asking whether to book partial profits or to hold for upside.
27:13 I think my advice would be to trail your stock loss now to around 28
27:19 rupees. That's the stock loss at this moment to book partial profit.
27:23 If it breaks below 28, then book some partial profit.
27:25 Because if you look at the near-term structure,
27:28 some consolidation took place and now again,
27:30 the stock broke out of its consolidation range.
27:33 So 28 should be your stock loss to take a view of partial profit booking.
27:39 On the higher side, if stocks crosses above 32,
27:42 then possible up move we can see towards 36, 38 also.
27:45 Though stock has really some corrective moves taking place.
27:49 So we believe that if it's not breaking below 28,
27:54 possible upside we can see towards 36 also in this stock.
27:58 Alright, that's all the time we have on this edition of Ask Profit.
28:04 Thank you Rajesh and Gaurang for joining and for answering so many questions for us.
28:09 And viewers, if we were not able to take your questions today,
28:13 we'll definitely try and take them tomorrow.
28:15 So join us tomorrow at 11.30am.
28:18 But for now, there's lots more coming up on NDTV Profit.
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