Sensex Down Over 500 Points, Nifty Hovers Around 22,000 | India Market Close | NDTV Profit
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00:00:00 Withstood the pressure, hardly anything, a bit of a defensive bet there, insurance which was active yesterday,
00:00:05 to an extent HUL and IT, so that's about it.
00:00:09 But a classic day when there is some serious selling that's happening, more so at the broader end of the spectrum,
00:00:14 but the large caps are kind of exemplifying the flavour or the mood of the market.
00:00:20 But mid caps being taken to the cleaners.
00:00:22 Absolutely, let's look at the advance decline, Neeraj, because it's been interesting all the way since morning,
00:00:27 we saw a sharp reversal in advance decline and that has plateaued after that reversal early on in the day.
00:00:34 This is what I'm talking about, roughly around 11ish and post that it's been pretty much flat.
00:00:41 So the advance decline firmly in favour of the declines, the breadth of the market very very weak,
00:00:47 amongst all indices, mid, large, nobody's really been spared there.
00:00:51 Let me quickly point out to a few names, a few names have been in focus over the last few weeks.
00:00:57 In fact, let me first start off with something like a Vodafone idea.
00:01:00 It's probably stock of the day and along with it.
00:01:03 Let me also pull up something like a Zee and a Paytm, all three of them languishing in trade,
00:01:08 12% lower for Vodafone, 5% lower for both Zee as well as Paytm.
00:01:14 Those have been in focus since a while on a poor day of trade.
00:01:17 Those are doing relatively even worse.
00:01:20 Let's look at something like a Torrent Power on the back of news.
00:01:25 That one also has slipped 4+% looking at a TexMaco Rail, which is also sharply lower.
00:01:33 But outside of that, I want to quickly point out to the OMC pack HPCL, BPCL, IOCL.
00:01:40 Those three also not doing so well.
00:01:43 A Nuvama note suggesting some amount of bearishness, some amount of indicating that probably some of these stocks have now reached their fair valuations.
00:01:54 Also, the other one, Indostar, GE, TND, we did have those.
00:01:58 Those are among the gainers in a very, very tough day of trade.
00:02:01 There you go. 1% and 2.8% high Indostar capital, obviously, all the way to my left.
00:02:08 What you're largely seeing on Indostar is because of the QIP and rather the private placement.
00:02:16 And what you're seeing is 450 odd crore being raised.
00:02:19 And that's why the stock is a buzz. You have the likes of a DreamFox and an Avas.
00:02:24 Both of those buzzing on the back of favorable brokerage notes.
00:02:27 Avas not really buzzing, but 1% high on a tough day of trade.
00:02:31 Not something that you would want to complain about, right, Neeraj?
00:02:33 Not at all. Yeah, buzzing seemed to be a rare word today, for sure.
00:02:36 Let's get in our experts to try and understand what to do in a scenario like this.
00:02:40 Akshay Bhagwat, Senior VP, JM Financial on the derivatives and the charts and on the fundamentals.
00:02:45 Hemang Jani joining in as well. Gentlemen, thanks so much for taking the time out and being with us, both of you.
00:02:50 Akshay, can I start off with the trade pattern today?
00:02:52 Is this more so the selling at the broader end of the spectrum?
00:02:55 Because that was the more resilient part the last few days.
00:02:58 How are you looking at the charts for the basic indices?
00:03:01 And then couple that up with your stock recommendations as well.
00:03:05 Good afternoon, Neeraj. Today there has been a good sell-off in the market,
00:03:09 but my belief is this is more to do with the expiry-related action.
00:03:14 Now 22,000 is the pivotal zone.
00:03:17 This is the point where a lot of positioning was seen a day prior in the puts.
00:03:22 So this is more about shaking off the put writers for the time being, as I see it.
00:03:27 Currently, there is a lot of open interest still, both in calls and puts now.
00:03:30 And considering the fact that tomorrow is the expiry for the Nifty, all this volatility and momentum is about the battle as to whether 22k holds or not.
00:03:40 As I see both the calls and puts are sold together to play tomorrow's expiry.
00:03:44 So things are likely to be volatile.
00:03:46 But if you're seeing from a directional perspective, then minimum criteria I would give is that 20 to 100 now stands out as a key resistance.
00:03:54 If you are placing a trade for tomorrow or today, till 20 to 100, the index trades below it.
00:04:00 There is a good chance that market might try to get below the 22k and head for the recent lows, which was 21,850.
00:04:07 So slight negative tinge on the index, but it's more about the options action for tomorrow's weekly expiry.
00:04:13 As far as the couple of trades which I have for recommending to the viewers, first would be Tata Motors, which has a very strong setup here.
00:04:22 And my belief is that longs have been rolled to the next March series.
00:04:26 The broader chart setup is positive on the charts.
00:04:29 So I would be a buyer in Tata Motors on dips.
00:04:32 If I get around 955, 950 odd levels.
00:04:35 So Tata Motors, I would recommend to buy at the current rates, keep a stop loss of roughly around 942 on this trade and around 1000 odd levels can be the target if the momentum resumes.
00:04:48 And the second trade here is Asian Paints, which has a negative or a bearish setup, clearly broken down the supports of 2900, heading for 2700.
00:04:57 So a very strong negative build up on short side.
00:05:00 And I believe 2700 is where you should target Asian Paints from the short term perspective with a stop loss of around 2910 on the upside.
00:05:09 Well, a short call on Asian Paints.
00:05:11 And remember, the last few days it's had a bit of a rough ride as well.
00:05:15 So that's to be kept in mind.
00:05:17 Opening thoughts from Hemang Jani before we address the stock of the day.
00:05:19 Hemang, a rough ride.
00:05:21 Akshay reckons that this is probably due to expiry late issues.
00:05:25 How are you on the markets currently, constructive or would you believe lower levels coming?
00:05:31 Good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:05:33 Two things.
00:05:34 One is that, of course, expiry will have its own bearing.
00:05:37 And, you know, on days you see the index holding out with the broader market going through a bit of a correction.
00:05:44 But today is a day where both the large caps and index as well as the broader market is going through a bit of a correction.
00:05:53 Also, we have to reckon that since we will be approaching March, you know, a lot of HNI's and many people try to, you know, do less of activity and do a bit of, you know, accounting related stuff.
00:06:10 So that also can have some impact.
00:06:14 My sense is that the market may go through a little bit of a dull phase for maybe some more time.
00:06:22 But I do not see a reason for a deeper correction given the global setup, given the fact that earnings season by and large has been quite good.
00:06:31 So there is a lot of appetite, a lot of interest in the market.
00:06:34 But maybe this is just a phase where you will see a little bit of correction and consolidation.
00:06:41 Okay. Well, stay on, gentlemen. We need to get your views on what is arguably the stock of the day and that is Vodafone Idea or the event of the last 24 hours.
00:06:50 Because the company's approved a fundraise of up to 20,000 crores via equity, additional maybe 25,000 crores via debt.
00:06:57 But this brings into the picture Vodafone Idea as well as some of the other allied players like Airtel and Indust Tower.
00:07:05 Smriti is waiting by to tell us the highlights of this and the longer term implications, if you will, of what the eventual outcome could be.
00:07:13 Smriti, good afternoon.
00:07:14 Good afternoon. Well, yes, late last evening, Vodafone Idea announced a fundraise.
00:07:20 So in total, they're going to raise 45,000 crores, out of which 20,000 crores will be through equity.
00:07:26 Now, that's the that's the announcement that happened last night.
00:07:30 They're going to complete the fundraising in the first quarter of FY25.
00:07:35 That's the timeline that the company has given itself.
00:07:38 The funds will be invested towards expansion of 4G and rollout of 5G.
00:07:42 In the earnings call, in the third quarter earnings call, they mentioned that they'll take seven to eight months to roll out 5G from the fundraise.
00:07:51 So probably by the end of FY25, we can see 5G with Vodafone Idea, if all goes well.
00:07:57 Next, the promoter is going to participate in the fundraise.
00:08:00 Now, the promoter has previously committed 2000 crores that they will put in the company if need be.
00:08:06 So they will participate. It is highly likely that Aditya Bela group will put in that money through this fundraise into the company.
00:08:13 But the question is, are they going to go higher?
00:08:16 So that's that's something we'll have to watch out for.
00:08:18 Other than that, there's going to be an EGM on 2nd April where they'll ask shareholders to approve this fundraising that's going to happen.
00:08:28 While it's unclear how this fundraising will happen, they haven't mentioned the mode by which they're going to go through with this.
00:08:35 Is it going to be a QIP, a preference allotment or anything else?
00:08:39 But there are certain key monitorables that we should watch out for.
00:08:42 First is, will there be a big investor coming in and that will back the company?
00:08:47 Because they really need it. Out of that 20000 crores, we know that 20000 will be pushed by Aditya Bela group.
00:08:53 But what about the rest of it?
00:08:55 The next is, will the network get better plus 5G launch help retain subscribers?
00:09:00 Will that be the case? Now, that will happen only if they're able to launch 5G.
00:09:04 So the timelines are need to be pretty strictly done.
00:09:09 If that happens, then only they're going to see 5G subscribers.
00:09:13 Let's also talk about what will be the cost of funds.
00:09:16 Now, this is the important part. If you look at the debt of the company, it has a gross rate of over 2.14 lakh crores.
00:09:22 In FY25, they are due to pay 5400 crores and in FY26, they're due to pay 30000 crores.
00:09:29 So in total, that's a 35000 crore debt that needs to be paid in the next two years itself.
00:09:34 And if you compare it with the raise 45000 crores, out of which 25000 is debt.
00:09:40 Are we saying that debt refinancing is what's going to happen with the company?
00:09:45 So the cost of funds is likely to be high in this case.
00:09:48 The last is, will the government agree to extend timelines in AGR?
00:09:51 Now, from FY26, the moratorium on these AGR dues will be lifted and the company will have to shell out 28000 crores towards the government.
00:10:01 However, will the government step in and extend those timelines is the question that we need to watch out for.
00:10:07 I think that question, Smriti, around the big investor, because if the promoter is going to put in 2000 crores,
00:10:14 there's a large equity raise that needs to come in from other investors.
00:10:18 Yes, definitely. It needs to be much, much bigger.
00:10:22 So is it going to be multiple investors that they have identified?
00:10:26 That we're going to see in the next couple of months.
00:10:29 OK, OK, we'll wait and watch. Thanks a lot for that, Smriti.
00:10:32 So, well, that's Vodafone Idea. Hemant, coming on this one.
00:10:35 I mean, it's not just on Vodafone Idea, but the implications of a successful fundraise on Indus Tower, on Bharti Airtel and on Vodafone Idea itself.
00:10:43 Yes, so Nitesh, I think for the last about four to six quarters, we've been hearing about the fundraising plans.
00:10:53 And finally, the court approval has come through and we just need to see what kind of structure do they come up with.
00:11:03 If they are able to raise a meaningful amount of money, both equity and debt, you know, about 450 billion rupees,
00:11:12 surely there is going to be some sort of, you know, drub off in terms of the perception that people have about the company.
00:11:22 And you could definitely see a bit of a re-rating.
00:11:25 However, given the balance sheet structure of the company and post-monetarium,
00:11:32 the gap between the EBITDA and the, you know, obligations that they have, it will be quite steep.
00:11:38 So, should not get too excited. Maybe it will give you a little bit of a, you know, maybe 10, 12, 15 percent kind of an uptick,
00:11:46 but not looking at this as a permanent kind of a solution for the woes that Vodafone has.
00:11:54 Hemang, if I can also come in, try and understand, you expect a larger investor to participate in a big way in this,
00:12:02 because without that, it seems like a tricky one to be in.
00:12:08 Probably given the size of the requirement that they have, you know, both equity and debt component would be somewhere around 450 billion,
00:12:19 which is not a small amount. So, in what composition, you know, they are able to do it,
00:12:25 whether promoter is able to act and you have a large investor, because if you do a small fundraiser,
00:12:32 you know, other people are not able to contribute to the extent of the overall requirement.
00:12:37 Surely it's going to be a tough, tall order for them.
00:12:42 Sure point taken, Hemang. You know, I also want to try and understand from our technical analyst,
00:12:51 Akshay, give us your views with regard to how this one looks on charts, because we've seen plenty of volatility on this counter.
00:13:02 Well, see, Vodafone idea today as it trades right now is at its support zone.
00:13:07 The support is the recent swing low, which we saw a few trading sessions back somewhere in the first week of February.
00:13:13 That's around 13.7. So a crucial support.
00:13:17 But one thing is clear that the entire momentum buildup, which we were seeing in momentum in Vodafone idea has been out today.
00:13:24 So it will take time to regain its lost glory again. It will consolidate maybe if it's hold on to the support.
00:13:29 So if anyone has a position, you need to keep a strict stop loss of around 12.5, because the momentum is killed to regain this.
00:13:36 It's going to take a lot of time. The broader chart structure is getting into a sideways consolidative action.
00:13:41 Now, the lower end of the range being 13 and upper end of the range possibly being around 17.
00:13:46 So more of a no trading zone action in Vodafone. And honestly, I would not advise anyone to go for a fresh buying bet here.
00:13:52 It's about keeping a stop loss and to try to take an exit at the best possible rate.
00:13:57 What about what about Indus Tower, Akshay?
00:14:00 Yeah, Indus Tower comparatively is better placed than the chart of Vodafone idea here.
00:14:06 It has given a strong breakout a couple of days back.
00:14:09 The weekly charts have seen a breakout at 228, and that's a very strong development in the stock.
00:14:14 Today also the day trading parameters are very positive.
00:14:17 The support is 233. And the expectation is that from the short term scenario,
00:14:21 you might see the stock heading for upside levels still around 260 to 265.
00:14:26 So that's a trading target. If it resumes its upside journey, then positional targets can go as high as 290.
00:14:33 So a positive view on Indus Tower, continue to hold or buy.
00:14:37 And the view continues positive till it trades about 225.
00:14:42 So Hemang, any views you have within telecom?
00:14:47 Bharti Airtel, there have been a couple of favorable notes coming through.
00:14:52 There's some bit of positivity on that counter even today, despite all that's happening in the market.
00:15:00 As well as an Indus Towers. Anything in telecom that you're liking at this point? Not too many options.
00:15:07 Yeah, I agree. Surely from a, you know, let's say if you really want to commit a serious sum of money
00:15:14 and large allocation is what you're looking at, then Bharti's go to stock without any doubt.
00:15:20 And given the trend on the ARPUs and the way the company has kind of given indication of what could be the trajectory for ARPU and earnings.
00:15:30 Surely that will be the favorite stock that one can really look at. Indus Tower has done pretty well.
00:15:35 You know, to some extent, it's a little bit of correlation between the idea of Vodafone and Indus Tower because of the current structure.
00:15:44 And we do think that if, you know, idea is able to raise money and there is a comfort that people get,
00:15:53 it will also reflect in the sentiment towards Indus Tower. And the stock has done so very well in the last, let's say, few months.
00:16:01 I think maybe a case of another maybe 12, 15 percent kind of an upside given the traction and momentum which is there.
00:16:10 But I would not get too aggressive on Indus Tower in terms of new money because the stock has already run up
00:16:17 and this event of fundraisers, you know, known to everybody. So don't expect much of a move.
00:16:24 But yes, some more upside is pretty much possible on Indus Tower.
00:16:29 OK, we'll watch out for some of these as well. Himang, thanks for taking the time out and being with us today on the show.
00:16:35 Really appreciate your time this afternoon. That's the view from Himang Jani.
00:16:39 Just before we take that break, look at the Nifty 500 and that that that while stocks and both ends are there,
00:16:45 but just the list of losers on the NSE 500 is just so large with Vodafone being the top draw, yes.
00:16:52 But everything from a PNC Infratech, which was up yesterday, to a Motilal Oswal, which is which was up yesterday,
00:16:57 have taken a sharp knock in the session. On the flip side, Jindal Soi at 18 percent is really packing a serious punch.
00:17:04 We're back from a break. Talk to transformers and rectifiers as they win a order and guide to some fairly strong growth for the next two years.
00:17:11 The next two years.
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