Why Luton Town Are Good Enough To Stay In The Premier League
Luton might not have picked up a result against Manchester United, but Erik Ten Hag's side became the latest "big club" to get out of Kenilworth Road battered, bruised, and lucky to take a win. Sitting just outside the relegation zone with a clutch of massive fixtures on the horizon though, Rob Edwards has given his unfancied side every chance of staying in the Premier League, thanks to a bold tactical system that's getting the most out of his key players. Adam Clery talks us through why they might just stay up.
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00:00 Right then everybody, hello how's it going my name is Adam Cleary you are watching 442
00:08 and Luton Town might not have got the best result against Manchester United but they
00:12 put in the kind of performance that will finally have people believing that they might just
00:17 stay up.
00:18 Now full disclosure this was my take on that whole situation all the way back in August.
00:23 Luton don't just stay up, they stay up comfortably.
00:26 And while alright maybe that was a little bit short sighted I still do think ultimately
00:30 in the end they are going to be fine.
00:36 And that's because of this system they're using and this is the version that took the
00:38 field against Man United is evolving bit by bit into something that is letting them really
00:44 compete in the Premier League.
00:46 It's essentially a 3-4-2-1 but the role of the wing backs here is so important because
00:51 when they're defending deep and they're looking to be compact they will both drop back in
00:54 to just have a flush back five but when they are attacking one of them usually takes all
00:59 the attacking impetus which I'm 99% sure is a word and drives all the way up the flank.
01:05 Now in their usual eleven the entire back three all have strength, pace, ability, are
01:10 good technically and read the game quite well and in the two central spots you've got Ross
01:14 Barpitt and Laconga who are both pretty experienced in very different ways so there is almost
01:20 like a Premier League core there.
01:21 Then in the wing back slot Dougherty and Ogbene have become two of their most attacking weapons
01:26 in Ogbene's case because he's a fantastic runner that gets in behind opposition defences
01:30 really well, can take people on for fun and in Dougherty's case because he's becoming
01:35 one of the most effective dead ball deliverers in the league.
01:39 One of the reasons it actually took Luton a while to get going in the Premier League
01:42 was because they couldn't really decide what to do with Adebayo and Calum Morris.
01:46 Like on the one hand Morris was last season's top scorer, he was their primary goal threat
01:50 but Adebayo maybe felt like his different physical attributes were more suited to the
01:55 Premier League.
01:56 At the start of the season they had this like far flatter and less ambitious like 5-3-2
02:02 with a number 10 but they just could not get Chong who it usually was involved in the game.
02:07 And worse still because they couldn't really sort of find their vibe in the Premier League
02:11 they were spending so much time on the back foot, the two wing backs they couldn't get
02:14 up the field to provide any sort of support.
02:16 It wasn't really working.
02:18 So sometime around, and Luton fans please correct me in the comments if I'm wrong about
02:21 this, I want to say like mid to late November they went to this quite aggressive but still
02:26 a little bit more stabilised 3-4-2-1.
02:29 And with this the performances immediately improved and the results weren't far behind
02:33 it.
02:34 After the narrowest of defeats against Arsenal and Man City they beat Newcastle United, beat
02:38 Sheffield United, went through two rounds of the FA Cup and put four past Brighton.
02:43 Now we'll talk about Brighton in a little bit but the reason this system has become
02:46 quite effective is the same reason Danny De Vito was able to pull in the 90s.
02:51 Like okay it might not look overly pretty but it's incredibly direct and has a surprising
02:56 amount of width.
02:57 Is that the best joke I've done on this channel?
02:59 Might be.
03:00 Anyway so whenever Luton get the ball back, wherever on the pitch that is, the first thing
03:03 they are trying to do is get the ball to Ross Barkley.
03:07 And when he gets it there are several things he can decide to do but his main aim is to
03:11 take opposition defenders out of the picture.
03:14 Now option one is if there is some kind of killer pass on, if somebody is potentially
03:18 in, he can just hit that ball straight away.
03:20 He hasn't got to worry about bringing other people into play.
03:23 And he's really good at this.
03:24 If we look at the number of key passes he has played this season he ranks in the top
03:28 4% of the entire Premier League.
03:30 If there's a chance to be had, Ross Barkley can play it.
03:33 Option two is if there isn't an immediate option on what he looks to do is try and get
03:37 one of the two full backs into the game by taking their defender out of the picture with
03:42 a ball into these spaces.
03:44 And we also know he's very good at that because the number of switches of play he's successfully
03:48 making this season puts him in the top 15% of the Premier League.
03:51 So he finds balls in the channels quite regularly.
03:55 One of them is getting in behind, Ross Barkley can find them.
03:58 And thirdly and findedly, this is not something I particularly appreciated Barkley having
04:03 in his locker, if none of that is available to him, if there are defenders in his way,
04:08 he can just go past them and get into the space behind.
04:11 And we know he's good at that because out of all the midfielders in the Premier League,
04:16 Ross Barkley is probably posting the most impressive numbers this season for just going
04:22 past someone.
04:23 He's in the top 2% for the number of successful take-ons made per 90 minutes.
04:28 And he isn't just the league leader, he's in the top 1% across all the major European
04:33 leagues for creating chances for a teammate as a result of taking a player on.
04:39 And that is kind of nuts, isn't it?
04:42 Like Ross Barkley, who I think a lot of people thought was finished at this level, is leading
04:47 European football in terms of skinning people in this area of the pitch and then making
04:52 a chance for somebody as a result.
04:54 Now obviously it's not just all about him, in fact I'm doing a total disservice to the
04:57 rest of this team to focus so heavily on Barkley, but this sort of play style he has, how they
05:03 look to find him quickly and then he looks to find a teammate quickly, does typify just
05:08 how direct Luton are.
05:10 And just to illustrate how this sort of ethos works throughout the entire team, Luton have
05:15 some insane numbers this season.
05:17 So they've got the lowest number of touches in the entire Premier League in both their
05:21 defensive third and the middle third.
05:22 They could not be less bothered about having the ball in these areas.
05:26 But, and this won't sound impressive immediately, they sort of jump to lower mid-table to where
05:31 like Wolves and Palace and Brentford are for the number of touches they're having in the
05:35 attacking third.
05:36 But just for context here, the second bottom in both of these areas is Sheffield United
05:40 and then their rock bottom in the final third.
05:43 Like it tends to carry, either you're a team that touches the ball a lot or you're not.
05:47 There's not really a massive difference between where you're doing it except in Luton's case.
05:51 They've got the biggest jump between any two areas in the league.
05:55 And what that tells you is they're not just some sort of predictable long ball side looking
05:59 to go from the goalkeeper or the defenders straight into the big lad up front.
06:02 They can play when they get in this area, they just want to get into it as quickly as
06:07 possible.
06:08 And these are the stats that should tell you absolutely everything, right?
06:11 Across the entire pitch, they have the second lowest number of total passes in the Premier
06:16 League.
06:17 They have the lowest number of passing sequences where there were more than 10 passes involved.
06:22 But they are seventh for the total number of switches of play.
06:25 So long balls obviously into a far more open area of the pitch.
06:29 And they are number one, number one in the whole league for crosses.
06:34 So just on that stat about like passing sequences with more than 10 passes, Man City are top
06:39 of that rather predictably.
06:40 They will have the ball for ages, they will be as patient, they will try and find small
06:43 gaps to get into the box.
06:45 They will think nothing of turning around and going back to the defence and starting
06:49 all over again.
06:50 Luton are the antithesis of this.
06:53 They want to cross that ball into the box as soon as possible.
06:58 Their only major mindset is how can we get the ball quickly into the final third, then
07:03 get it wide into space and then hit the box.
07:07 And this is why they've got that sort of weird 2-1 attacking shape that's got two classic
07:12 number nines in it.
07:13 Like they will quite happily rotate between games, even during games.
07:16 And the objective here is that when they've got the ball at the back or in the midfield
07:20 and they're trying to get it into the final third as quickly as possible, it effectively
07:24 gives them two different mixes to stick it in.
07:28 And again, I don't just mean they look to kick it long and then rush up the field, but
07:31 you've got two players who are both capable of receiving the ball with their back to goal,
07:36 either on the deck or in the air.
07:38 And when they do that, that's when the rest of the team comes alive.
07:41 Like normally then one of the wingbacks will look to get into an area where they can cross
07:44 it from.
07:45 Sometimes even Andros Townsend is playing in this other 10 position and he'll throw
07:49 out wide.
07:50 But he of course is capable of drifting slightly out into a wider position and they look to
07:54 get the ball into the six yard box where these two can do some damage.
08:00 And this is where entirely by design by Rob Edwards, it becomes a pure numbers game.
08:06 Like Callum Morris and Adebayo are above average aerial duel winners.
08:10 Like you put the ball up to them a hundred times against a random selection of opponents,
08:14 they'll win more than they'll lose.
08:16 But Adebayo in particular, right, all six foot three of them is through this system
08:22 of maximising these crosses, becoming just like the most anomalous chance conversion
08:27 machine in the Premier League.
08:29 So these numbers here by any other measure would make him the most deadly centre forward
08:36 in the Premier League.
08:37 That is top one and 2% stuff for chance conversion.
08:40 Just a really deep dive into this graph, right, his total number of shots is low and his total
08:45 number of shots on target are low because Luton don't create loads of chances when compared
08:50 to like Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal teams like that.
08:52 The actual number of them is quite low.
08:55 When you start getting into like the per 90 minutes numbers and specifically the percentages,
09:00 he jumps from being like at the bottom of these graphs to the very top.
09:04 Like the guy is scoring a goal every .3 shots he has.
09:09 He only needs three chances on average to score.
09:11 He's scoring a goal every .75 shots on target he has, which basically means if he has a
09:18 shot on target, it's got like a 75% chance of going in.
09:21 And the reason for this, and no disrespect intended, is not because he is the best centre
09:25 forward in the Premier League.
09:27 It's because of this number here.
09:29 He has the lowest average shot distance in the Premier League.
09:34 Of all the chances he's had in the league this season, on average, they are nine and
09:39 a half yards from goal.
09:41 That is halfway between the penalty spot and the six yard box.
09:45 For context, Haaland's average shot location is like 13 or 14 yards from goal.
09:51 So he's like 50% closer to the goal almost than Haaland is when he has his shots.
09:57 So just to put it bluntly, right, it doesn't really matter who you are or what team you
10:01 represent or how small your stadium might be.
10:03 If you've come up with a system specifically designed to keep giving your centre forwards
10:08 chances from within 10 yards of the goal, and that's working, you're probably going
10:14 to stay in a division.
10:15 You saw this against Manchester United, like here you are, they get the ball, they work
10:19 it into one of these wide areas nice and quickly.
10:22 They get it up into that golden zone within about 10 yards of the goal, and then bang.
10:28 And the whole team is geared toward making this happen.
10:30 Like Ogbene's got some of the best carrying numbers down the right hand side in the league.
10:35 Doherty's got some of the best carrying numbers down the left hand side in the Premier League.
10:39 If they can run into the channels, they absolutely do that.
10:41 Doherty in particular, I mentioned before about his numbers in terms of crossing and
10:45 chance creation.
10:46 Look at this.
10:47 He is putting more crosses into the box than any other fullback in the Premier League this
10:51 season.
10:52 And because this is Luton's whole system, that's giving him these incredible chance
10:56 creation numbers.
10:57 Like loads of things are happening in that box in and around the goal because of these
11:01 crosses.
11:02 So just to finish off here, I will show you why this is so effective and why it gives
11:06 them an edge over your Burnleys and your Sheffield United.
11:09 Total number of shots in the Premier League this season, Luton are right at the bottom.
11:13 Total number of shots on target this season, Luton are right at the bottom.
11:17 Total shot on target percentage this season, Luton are right at the bottom.
11:21 But in terms of the ratio of shots on target to goals, i.e. the measure of how good you
11:26 are at taking your chances, Luton jump into the European places.
11:32 And for all the people screaming at me that there's only one stat that counts, add all
11:35 that up and what does it give you?
11:36 In terms of the actual number of goals they've scored, they're certainly not flying, they're
11:41 not even in mid-table, but Luton are well clear of that bottom three.
11:45 In fact, going into the game with Manchester United, they had scored the exact same number
11:50 of goals as Manchester United.
11:53 I mean, obviously not now, of course, but you know.
11:56 So that's Luton.
11:57 That's why I really like Luton.
11:59 That's why I said this about Luton.
12:01 Everyone's got the bottom of the league, they're in every predictor, the supercomputers have
12:04 got them getting record low points.
12:06 I honestly think not a single team in the world is going to have a nice afternoon at
12:11 Kellenworth Road.
12:12 They'll bloody the noses of far better football teams.
12:16 Now if you have enjoyed this video and somehow didn't notice that I recorded like 90% of
12:21 it the week before the game because I was going to go home back to Newcastle and see
12:25 my friends and loved ones, then you've got to hand it to me, unfortunately.
12:29 So why not subscribe to the channel where you can see all this kind of fun stuff every
12:32 single day?
12:33 The latest 442, which you're right, should have Rob Edwards on the cover, is available
12:36 now from all good retailers and the crap ones as well.
12:38 And you can get me on Twitter, X, Insta, LinkedIn or whatever it's called @AdamCleary, C-L-E-R-Y,
12:44 and the 442 socials there in the corner of the video too.
12:47 Anyway, that's all from me and I think I deserve a very special round of applause for
12:50 not once pointing out that this Luton system is almost exactly the same as Xavi Alonso's
12:56 at Leverkusen.
12:57 Two proper men, playing proper football.