Is Judge's Home Run Total at Risk? Expert Projections
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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:03 Let's start with Aaron Judge.
00:05 Straight away, the number's 43 and a half.
00:08 I mean, Joe, I've got stats here, stuff I could talk about, but I wanna know it first.
00:12 Your thoughts on this whole toe maintenance thing,
00:14 and how you think it's gonna affect his home run total?
00:16 >> Well, I think the toe maintenance thing is something we have to be super aware of.
00:20 And I think that when you're, to kind of bring back last week's conversation,
00:24 when you're trying to split hairs between greatness in the first round,
00:28 I'm gonna take Juan Soto over Aaron Judge for that reason.
00:31 Because that's not an issue when it comes to Juan Soto.
00:33 Now, the number 43 and a half does seem pretty low, but I think it's baking in
00:36 the concerns of health.
00:39 This is a player who we know is capable of hitting 62 home runs, as he did in 2022.
00:44 In 2017, as a rookie, he had 52 home runs.
00:47 I mean, this is a guy that's capable of obliterating this number.
00:50 So Aaron Judge is still a [INAUDIBLE] much in play for the home run crown this year.
00:54 But we're talking about projections and what that means for first round talent.
00:57 He's in a situation with some other guys, even at the same position,
01:01 as I mentioned Soto before.
01:02 Fernando Tatis Jr. is capable of going into the 40 range.
01:06 Luis Robert is another player too, that I think,
01:10 38 last year, we could see him easily go into 40 this year.
01:14 So the projection right now on Fantasy Pros has Aaron Judge at 45,
01:17 which I think is a good conservative number.
01:19 Now, it will be over this total.
01:21 I would go slightly over this total, because I do think even if he played
01:24 potentially somewhere around 130 something games,
01:28 let's just put it at that, that there will be some missed time for Aaron Judge.
01:31 >> Okay.
01:32 >> Well, that's the thing.
01:33 I mean, you're looking at 21, he played 148 games, 2022, 157.
01:38 But before that, in 2018, there were injuries.
01:41 In 2019, there were injuries.
01:42 In 2023, there were injuries.
01:43 There, we played only 106 games.
01:45 So that's the question.
01:47 It's can he play enough games to get to the 40 range?
01:52 I think the answer is yes, but I think that range has to be somewhere around 125 games or so.
01:56 >> So just to wrap this up, that's the question you have to be asking yourself,
02:00 if you really want to get in on this, is how many games do you think Aaron Judge is going to play?
02:04 And Joe gave a good number there.
02:06 I think around 130.
02:07 When you look at his anomalistic or anomaly standout seasons, 52 and 62 home runs,
02:12 each of those seasons, 150 plus games.
02:15 Go to the next largest total, which is 39, 148 games.
02:19 But last year, 37 and 106.
02:22 So if he gets to that 130-ish area, Joe's right, it's over 40.
02:27 But I'm away on this whole thing completely, but I do think it's an under here.
02:32 [MUSIC]