• 9 months ago
#TataMotors is going to separate its commercial and passenger vehicle businesses into two, causing the stock to jump, is now the time to sell?


Get your queries answered by our guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive



Guest List:
Rohan Mehta, Founder and Portfolio Manager Turtle wealth 
Soni Patnaik , AVP , JM Financial Services 
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Transcript
00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]
00:03 [MUSIC PLAYING]
00:06 Good morning, and thanks so much for joining in.
00:33 You're watching Ask Profit on NDTV Profit,
00:35 and my name is Alex Mathew.
00:37 This show aims to get you answers to all
00:39 of your stock-related questions.
00:40 So if you're tuned in on social media,
00:42 then send your questions to us on the comments section.
00:45 Or in fact, if you're tuning in on television,
00:47 then you can send them to us on the WhatsApp number that's
00:50 at the bottom of your screen right now.
00:52 Now, let's start with a check of where the markets are right
00:56 now.
00:56 It's been a little bit of consolidation
00:58 that has been in the offing, not just in the Indian equity
01:02 markets, but in global markets as a whole.
01:04 And you're seeing the benchmark Nifty 50 trade very close
01:07 to the low point of the day, down about a half a percent
01:09 or so.
01:10 And it's trading just shy of that 22,300 mark.
01:13 There are a bit of a cut in the broader markets as well.
01:17 And you have the mid-cap 150 index
01:19 that's trading with cuts of about a quarter of a percent.
01:21 The small-cap 250 index has down about half a percent or so.
01:25 And so therefore, the market breadth
01:27 is tilted in favor of the declines right now.
01:30 Let's pull up the key contributors on the Nifty 50.
01:34 And that should give you a sense of what is moving.
01:36 You'll see on the top of the losing end,
01:39 Reliance Industries, the heavyweight.
01:41 And you have a few IT names as well
01:42 that are making it to the top of that list, the likes of Infosys
01:46 as well as TCS, and from the banking pack, ICICI Bank,
01:49 Losing Ground.
01:51 Tata Motors-- and we'll come to that in just a bit--
01:53 is going to be a focus today.
01:55 State Bank of India.
01:56 And in fact, the PSU banking pack
01:58 is standing out as a pocket of strength in the markets today.
02:03 In fact, one of the three sectoral indices
02:05 that are gaining, that one is the PSU banking pack.
02:08 Among the others, of course, you have the auto pack
02:11 on account of Tata Motors, largely,
02:14 but also a few other components as well that are gaining ground.
02:18 And Realty as a pack is doing OK in trade today,
02:21 gaining about a half a percent or so.
02:23 All of the other major sectoral indices,
02:24 however, are losing ground.
02:26 In fact, the Nifty IT index as a whole
02:29 is at a one-month low as we speak.
02:33 Now, we are going to be focusing on Tata Motors
02:39 at the start of the program today.
02:40 And that's something that you've probably
02:43 heard about on this platform.
02:45 In fact, if you've read the website, NDTVprofit.com,
02:48 and that has to do with the approval from the board
02:50 to split this entity, this stock, into two parts.
02:54 There's going to be a passenger vehicle side, which
02:56 includes the Jaguar Land Rover business, as well as EVs,
02:59 and the domestic passenger vehicle business.
03:02 And on the other end of the spectrum,
03:04 you're going to have commercial vehicles and allied activities.
03:08 And this is something that's going to have--
03:10 the same shareholders is going to be carried out
03:12 in 12 to 15 months.
03:14 And this is something, according to the company,
03:17 that's going to unlock value going forward.
03:19 And it's going to streamline activities.
03:21 Of course, over the last decade or so,
03:23 you've seen very clear a difference in strategies
03:27 with regard to the commercial vehicle business,
03:29 as well as the passenger vehicle business.
03:31 And so the allocation of capital, one would assume,
03:34 will be more efficient if you split these two entities.
03:37 Let's find out what our experts have
03:39 to say about what you should do with Tata Motors,
03:42 especially because the stock has gone up quite significantly
03:45 over the course of the last one, one and a half years or so.
03:48 It is up about 4% in trade today.
03:51 But if you look at the last one year,
03:52 it's up close to 130-odd percent.
03:56 We're joined today by Rohan Mehta, who's
03:58 the founder and portfolio manager at Turtle Wealth,
04:00 and Soni Patnaik, who's AVP at JM Financial Services.
04:04 Thank you so much to the both of you
04:05 for taking the time this morning.
04:08 Rohan, I'll come to you first on Tata Motors.
04:10 Now, the way that I see it is that the target price
04:14 across the board for most brokerages
04:18 has already been breached based on the price action.
04:22 Of course, we're talking about potential value
04:24 unlocking going down the road.
04:26 But if you are holding Tata Motors,
04:28 what should your strategy be?
04:30 And if you haven't bought yet, if you're not
04:32 holding this in your portfolio, should you
04:34 wait for an opportunity?
04:35 Or do you think that there's no downside from this point?
04:39 Yeah, perfect.
04:40 See, I have a long answer to it.
04:41 You can cut me short once your time is up.
04:44 So see, I'll tell you that one of the key resilience
04:48 of an Indian company to do a 28,000 crore losses
04:50 to an all-time high profit is an example of Tata Motors.
04:54 It is an extraordinary example.
04:56 I believe that there are three key indicators of the company
04:59 to have a turnaround.
05:01 First, of course, is that the [INAUDIBLE]
05:04 Second is on the technical parameter.
05:05 We always see when a company first
05:07 hits an all-time high, then a new decimal digit
05:10 is also a very, very key indicator of coming on
05:13 to the point.
05:14 And this news coming is a very clear point
05:16 that there is a pure turnaround story in Tata Motors.
05:19 So we are very positive.
05:21 Though we are not invested in the fund because of other peers
05:24 in our investments, but still we believe
05:26 that this company is going to have a pure spin off.
05:29 Secondly, I'll tell you one thing,
05:30 that this is the only company where
05:32 you can play a big bet on premium cars.
05:36 There are no premium car companies listed in India.
05:39 So on that whole segment from EV to premium
05:42 to commercial vehicles, I believe if you're old,
05:45 you should add more.
05:46 And if you're not bought, you should buy more at this juncture
05:49 also.
05:51 It's said you would look at--
05:53 of course, we're talking about the split happening,
05:56 say, about a year, year and a half down the line.
05:59 And would you hold on to both the businesses?
06:00 Of course, I'll ask you closer to that time as well.
06:05 I think so.
06:06 I would see that what it is.
06:08 But I would be more interested on to the premium segment
06:11 of Jaguar Land Rover for sure.
06:13 But I feel that both of the segment
06:15 has its own beautification.
06:17 Let's see at that point of time.
06:18 But as of now, if you ask me one choice,
06:20 then of course the premium cars.
06:22 Fair point.
06:23 Let's jump into the queries.
06:24 And quite a few of you have already written in.
06:26 I would encourage you, if you are tuning in right now
06:29 and if you have a stock that you'd like to know about,
06:31 do let us know what your name is and where you're tuning in
06:35 from.
06:35 That helps us identify you.
06:37 And also the time frame that you're
06:38 looking at, whether it's a short term query or for long term
06:41 one.
06:41 And also, if you bought into a stock,
06:44 then tell us the value at which or the price at which
06:46 you have bought it.
06:47 The first one is coming in from Naman Deora.
06:51 Naman is writing in from Kolkata.
06:53 I'm going to choose two of the stocks that he's pointed out.
06:56 One is Tata Teleservices.
06:59 And the other is Hindustan Construction Company.
07:03 I'm just going to pull up the price as we speak.
07:06 But we've got Tata Teleservices, which is currently
07:09 at 86 or thereabouts.
07:10 And we've got Hindustan Construction,
07:12 which is at just about 40 or thereabouts.
07:15 He's bought at levels of 98 for Tata Teleservices.
07:18 And HCC, he's bought at an average price of 43.
07:24 The question is for you on the technical, Soni.
07:28 What would you do with these two entities?
07:31 I think-- good morning, Alex.
07:32 Thank you so much for having me on the show.
07:34 Talking about Tata Teleservices, the stock
07:36 is looking decent.
07:39 It is holding on to important crucial levels also.
07:41 I feel that you can just continue to hold if you see 2%,
07:46 3% of any sort of--
07:48 you can just average it out.
07:49 There are multiple support levels for this stock.
07:52 And immediately, we can see 82, 80.
07:55 The zone is holding out very strong support.
07:57 So just average it out in case.
07:59 And just hold with the stop loss of 80 as a good support.
08:02 And your stop loss also.
08:04 [INAUDIBLE]
08:08 For the day, if it's able to cross that level,
08:10 you can see it rising further towards 90, 92.
08:14 I think Tata Teleservices can definitely be held on.
08:18 Talking about HCC, HCC is looking slightly weak
08:21 from current levels.
08:22 It is about to test its 50 EMA of 38.9.
08:26 Were it to break that level and close below it,
08:28 you can see further downside up to 34, 34 and 1/2.
08:32 So I think it's just important to look
08:35 for the levels of 38.9.
08:36 If it's breaking, one can exit from the stock.
08:39 Got it.
08:40 We've got another question coming in from Shraboni,
08:42 writing in from Kolkata Lake Mall.
08:44 Interesting.
08:46 She's asking about Mazgon Dock Shipbuilding,
08:49 which has bought 500 shares off at levels of 2,331.
08:55 It's, I believe, a longer term question.
08:57 So I'll come to you on this one, Rohan.
08:59 What's your view on this one?
09:01 Yeah, I think it's still looking a good idea.
09:04 The value is still very much into it.
09:06 The company has done over 3x of the profitability.
09:09 And then we have seen a bit of consolidation also.
09:13 I would really-- this is a great company.
09:15 The run has done good.
09:16 But I would also see that there's
09:18 one more company which can be a bear down company that
09:21 can be G-shipping, much more value higher than what
09:24 the price is about.
09:25 So can ship from Mazgon Dock to a G-shipping,
09:28 or Mazgon Dock still creates a bit of more value.
09:32 I must point out, viewers, we take questions live.
09:35 And of course, as you probably can understand,
09:37 there are a lot of questions.
09:38 We have limited time.
09:40 If you miss your question, it's not intentional.
09:42 I'm going to take the next one.
09:44 It's coming in from Greece, believe it or not.
09:47 We've got Pratik, who's writing in and asking about Yes Bank.
09:51 Any views on Yes Bank is the question.
09:53 I'm assuming that this has to do with a fundamental view.
09:57 This is a stock that is trading at about 25 or thereabouts.
10:01 Rohan, I'll come back to you on this one.
10:03 Any fundamental view on Yes Bank?
10:04 If so, would you suggest a fresh buy at this point?
10:08 Well, congratulations.
10:09 We are going international, so happy for it.
10:12 Second is that-- see, I think I get every day this question.
10:16 And my only answer is that we don't
10:18 buy companies which are not doing great business
10:22 in comparison.
10:23 I think so.
10:23 Just because it is $24, don't think
10:26 forward for a miracle will happen.
10:28 Rather, I think so companies like SBI create still
10:31 a lot of value out of it.
10:33 So I would, as an investor, a long-term investor,
10:35 I would go forward for an SBI versus a Yes Bank
10:39 because I would invest into logics rather than magic that
10:44 can happen.
10:44 So that is my only counter.
10:46 So yeah, that is why.
10:47 So I don't know what Yes Bank could be,
10:50 but I believe that SBI could be a more value-creating company.
10:52 Interesting.
10:54 And do you have a target at all?
10:56 If you're talking about State Bank of India,
10:58 of course, we've had viewers that
11:00 have bought at lower levels and that are continuing to hold.
11:02 And some would argue that it's still,
11:04 compared with its private banking peers,
11:06 attractively priced.
11:08 Do you have a target on the stock?
11:10 So this year, we have a target of $1,150
11:13 on what we feel is the value which has been there.
11:16 Rather, Alex, my whole point is that in the whole segment
11:20 of banking, and specifically in larger banking size,
11:24 SBI should outperform all the largest peers.
11:28 So maybe the target could be rationally up and down.
11:30 That could be different.
11:31 But the outperformance has to be there.
11:33 And that's what our focus is.
11:34 So very key.
11:36 And then there are three or four businesses
11:38 that can be demerged in coming period of time.
11:40 And that could be a great value-unlocking portion.
11:43 Got it.
11:43 All right.
11:44 The next question is coming from Manjuri.
11:47 She's writing in from Bangalore.
11:49 And she's asking about Tata Technologies, which
11:52 she has invested, she says, at the price of $1,211.
11:58 And she's wondering whether to hold, sell, or buy more
12:02 at this juncture.
12:04 It's currently trading at $1,087 or thereabouts.
12:08 So below the buy price.
12:10 But there are advantages to this move in Tata Motors as well.
12:15 And it's a recent listing, Rohan.
12:18 What would you make of this particular counter?
12:21 A lot of opportunity in the space
12:22 that this particular counter is playing in.
12:26 Yeah, see, it is great.
12:28 See, first of all, it is Tata, right?
12:31 So like trust.
12:32 And that is the reason this company at 70 times
12:35 has been quoting.
12:36 So I believe at this point of time,
12:37 new, fresh buying doesn't make a lot of sense.
12:40 But I would wait for the time to pull off the earnings.
12:43 And then the value could be created.
12:45 So for me, a company like an HCL technology
12:49 would be much more propelling in value of AI
12:52 and a lot of integration in comparison of Tata Tech.
12:55 Got it.
12:56 All right, so that's Manjuli's question.
12:59 The next one's from Shri Kishore Sharma,
13:02 and writing in from Motihari in Bihar.
13:04 Karnataka Bank has accounted that he
13:06 has bought at levels of 440.
13:08 And he's looking for an outlook for the next two years.
13:12 I'll come to you, Soni.
13:13 So Soni, if you are with us, what level
13:16 would you suggest that he hold on till?
13:18 Do you have a target on this particular counter?
13:22 Hi, Alex, could you just repeat these names, Doc?
13:25 When we're talking about Karnataka Bank,
13:27 he's got 450 shares, which he bought at levels of 440.
13:31 And he's got a two-year time frame, so ample room
13:34 to look at.
13:36 Right, so I think Karnataka Bank on charts
13:38 is looking strong from current price.
13:41 We can see it as it's crossing 50 EMA,
13:44 taking support from 20 EMA as well, which
13:47 is around 242 to 242 and 1/2.
13:49 So I think from this short-term perspective of 242 and 1/2
13:52 as a support, it can definitely bounce towards 260 in short
13:55 terms.
13:55 I think one can continue to hold, just keep your stop loss
13:58 to 242.
13:59 Got it.
13:59 All right, we've got N. Sanghi writing in from New Delhi
14:03 asking about BSE, bought at levels of 2,403.
14:07 And this is a stock that has gone from strength to strength,
14:10 but unfortunately, our viewer has
14:12 bought at slightly elevated levels.
14:15 Should she hold or sell at a loss is the question, Rohan.
14:20 These capital market players have gone from strength
14:23 to strength, but some might argue that they've
14:25 gone a little too far.
14:26 So if you bought at elevated levels,
14:28 what should your strategy be?
14:30 Should you, for example, extend your time frame?
14:35 So see, we have to understand the cycle of the stock.
14:38 So when there is a quantum leap of earning and something
14:40 turn around happens, we see a huge upside into a stock,
14:44 and that's what we are seeing in BSE.
14:46 And then the consolidation has started.
14:48 So now the story has been itself been witnessed,
14:51 and we're waiting for something new to come,
14:53 or maybe some new surprises of earning.
14:56 So at this point of time, I would rather
14:57 say that my technical colleague would give a right exit point
15:02 to exit, rather than you can hold it's a great company.
15:06 But yeah, there is a risk certain to it.
15:08 So I would rather say it is a hold,
15:10 but take a technical point of exit
15:12 before taking a wise call.
15:14 Fair point.
15:15 So Soni, on that note, BSE, do you
15:17 have any stop losses that you can suggest,
15:19 and what strategies would you employ here?
15:23 It's looking weak on charts.
15:24 2270 on charts can break.
15:27 If it's breaking, you can see very downside of 2100, 2090
15:32 as well.
15:33 So I think that's a crucial level to just watch out for.
15:35 If 2270, if it breaks, it'll definitely
15:37 test, because 2100, 2090 is a zone where
15:41 your 100 EMAs placed.
15:42 So I think that's the level once it can test.
15:45 There is also negative divergence on RSA,
15:47 so there's a high possibility of the level breaking.
15:49 So if anybody just wants to work in,
15:52 probably look around to averaging it
15:55 near to the 2100 support.
15:57 Got it.
15:57 All right.
15:59 Soni, as well as Rohan, do stay with us.
16:00 And viewers, we have to slip into a very quick break.
16:03 We've got more questions lined up on the other side,
16:05 so do stay with us.
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20:26 Welcome back.
20:28 You're watching "Ask Profit."
20:29 And we're in the midst of the query segment of the show.
20:32 And this next question is coming from Priya.
20:35 She's writing in from Haldwani in Uttarakhand.
20:38 She's got JSW Energy, which she's bought at levels of 522.
20:42 And she's wondering whether to hold or sell.
20:45 So the question is for Soni.
20:46 Soni, on the charts, what should the strategy
20:48 be from this point?
20:49 I think the entire space, if you look at it,
20:52 has shown definitely a lot of good support,
20:54 even this particular stock.
20:56 Any sort of corrections, small dip
20:57 that we can see towards 500, 480 zone
21:01 should be the levels where you can re-initiate the loans.
21:03 It's just a matter of time.
21:05 There is this resistance around 520 or something.
21:07 So if it's not crossing 520, you can see some dip.
21:10 So look around to hold on till 480 average
21:14 around those levels.
21:15 It should bounce back to 520.
21:17 Any move above 520 will see the next leg of rally,
21:20 which can lead towards 600 also positionally.
21:22 So these are the crucial levels to watch out.
21:24 OK.
21:25 So the next question does not have a name to it.
21:28 It becomes a little challenging to identify you.
21:31 So it's a request from our end.
21:34 If you're sending us a message, do let us know where you're
21:36 tuning in from and what your name is.
21:38 But I'll read the question nonetheless.
21:40 This is on PFC, REC, and QE.
21:43 We've got a viewer that has bought PFC at levels of 80,
21:46 REC at levels of 60, and QE at levels of 240.
21:51 Now, understandably, they're making quite a bit of money.
21:55 But they point out that they're not in a hurry.
21:57 And they're wondering if this is the right time to book profits.
22:00 So Rohan, on the fundamentals, do you
22:03 think that this is the right point to book out
22:05 some element of your gains?
22:08 I think it's a good question.
22:10 To book out some element of your gains?
22:14 So first of all, on our disclaimer,
22:16 we hold most of the stocks top in this.
22:19 We believe that it is purely a classic bull market where
22:22 the value is going to be more higher.
22:24 And the stocks should not be booked.
22:26 This is a long-term point where we
22:28 have seen 15 years of consolidation in the stocks
22:30 where they're coming.
22:31 And now the value has started to--
22:33 this is the time to get in more if we get an opportunity
22:37 on the other side.
22:38 So booking on the profit, I don't think it's a great idea.
22:41 OK, fair point.
22:43 Naresh Vaswani was the name of the viewer
22:45 who just asked the question.
22:47 The next question is coming in from Jayakrishnan,
22:49 who's writing in from Corry Code, asking about HFCL.
22:53 And 117 is the level that they bought this counter at,
22:56 asking for a medium-term outlook.
22:58 Soni, what's the view on the charts?
23:02 HFCL, if I look at that medium-term,
23:04 it's showing quite strong movement.
23:06 It has been continuously moving up above 195 as a good zone.
23:11 There is some resistance that was witnessed
23:14 around 120, 180-odd zones.
23:16 I think it's just shy of that particular resistance.
23:21 You can see some intraday dip around 100--
23:24 sorry, positional dip around 195.
23:27 In that case, it's a good level.
23:29 Just hold on to those levels.
23:30 95 should be acting as a good cushion as support.
23:33 And the stock should bounce back.
23:35 The resistance is at 118.
23:37 So the moment it's able to cross 118,
23:39 you can see further upside, perhaps up to 140 as well.
23:43 Correct.
23:44 Coming back to you, Soni, on Abbas Financiers.
23:47 And this is a question coming from Chandra.
23:49 She's bought at levels of 2,845, which is very elevated.
23:55 She's got as much as 3,000 shares.
23:58 And she's asking for a strategy for the next one year.
24:01 What advice would you give her?
24:03 I think this stock is seeing a lot of weakness
24:06 on medium-term position.
24:08 It has broken multiple support levels.
24:11 There is a high chance it can test 1,200, 1,150
24:15 also in the coming days.
24:16 I think one just ought to look out for those levels.
24:20 Maybe for that point where it can bounce back.
24:23 But right now, there is no such point
24:25 that you can show a reversal.
24:27 And there are multiple resistances.
24:29 I think any move only above 1,600
24:31 can confirm that there's a good reversal coming.
24:35 And then you can see it levels off 2,000 plus also.
24:37 I think that's one to watch out for.
24:39 But surely you can see some more pain in the coming days
24:42 for this stock.
24:43 All right.
24:44 My mistake.
24:45 Chandra is pointing out that he's a male.
24:47 Apologies for that, Chandra.
24:49 Ramesh is asking a question.
24:51 Ramesh is writing in from Hyderabad.
24:53 And he's got shares of Max Health,
24:56 which he's bought at levels of 580.
24:59 He's got 25 shares.
25:00 And this is a long-term investment.
25:03 Rohan, part of a pack that I think
25:05 was in focus definitely three years back,
25:08 I would think is also a longer-term play.
25:10 But from the hospital pack, would you
25:13 say that this is the best counter to be in?
25:15 Or would you say that he should move to something else?
25:18 I think so.
25:19 It's a good company, consistent growth, very decent value.
25:23 So it should be in hold.
25:24 It has seen a bit of correction.
25:26 And that is going to be there because it's not a cheap stock.
25:29 But I think so the way the company has grown,
25:31 it is very good.
25:32 It should get hold.
25:34 All right.
25:35 Hold is a view.
25:36 We've got Balaji from Madurai in Tamil Nadu
25:39 asking about South Indian Bank, which
25:41 he's bought at levels of 34.8.
25:43 Can they average at this point?
25:45 Let's pull up the chart and see where it's currently trading.
25:48 Not very far from the buy price.
25:50 So therefore, Soni, on the charts,
25:52 what should the strategy be?
25:54 Should you first of all look to accumulate more?
25:56 What's the view for the medium term?
26:00 I think you can look to accumulate more.
26:03 The chart is indicating that there could be another 5%,
26:07 5% to 8% of correction in the coming medium term position.
26:12 So I think it's better just to accumulate on the dip
26:14 and not at the current level.
26:16 It has run up a lot.
26:17 There could be some more profit taking as well taking place.
26:20 So just look forward to another 5%, 8% of a correction,
26:23 some exhaustion shown around those levels.
26:25 And then only you can look to accumulate.
26:27 I think as of now from CMP, it's just a big award.
26:30 Fair point.
26:31 All right.
26:32 Unfortunately, we're completely out of time.
26:34 Soni, as well as Rohan, thank you so much for joining in
26:36 and for answering all the questions that you did.
26:38 Viewers, well, we've answered as many questions
26:41 as we possibly could in the last half an hour.
26:43 And there are some of you, of course,
26:45 that have not gotten answers.
26:46 But hopefully, the questions that we've taken
26:48 have benefited you in some way.
26:50 We'll be back tomorrow to take a lot of your live questions.
26:53 So do stay tuned.
26:54 And of course, lots more coming up over the course of the day.
26:57 This is NDTV Profit.
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