هل سعر الذهب سيصل إلى 3000$ في 2024؟
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00:00 The ongoing war in Ukraine and Gaza, the US elections and the expectations around the reduction of US interest rates, all these factors led to the rise of gold to levels that are above the $2,200 level and its rise by more than 3.5% since the beginning of 2024 until now.
00:21 There are more factors, first the ongoing war in Gaza and Ukraine, because gold is a safe haven for investors, so the demand for it rises and therefore the prices rise.
00:33 There is also a lack of confidence in the US elections, and according to some analysts, Trump is a positive factor in the rise of gold prices, which is why we see fluctuations in the markets we saw during Trump's rule and also the rise in gold prices.
00:50 The US interest rate has risen by more than 42% during Trump's rule. There are also expectations around the reduction of US interest rates.
00:58 The US interest rates and gold prices are linked in a reverse relationship. If the US interest rates rise, the dollar will rise and the prices of gold will fall.
01:09 This graph shows the US interest rate and gold prices. In 2019, after the US federal government started reducing interest rates by 250 days, the price of gold rose by 150%.
01:28 In 2007, after the US federal government started reducing interest rates by 150 days, the price of gold rose by 140%.
01:38 In the middle, after the US federal government started reducing interest rates, the price of gold rose by 130%.
01:47 But what are the expectations when the prices of gold are reached by the largest international banks?
01:55 JP Morgan expects the price of gold to reach $2,300 in the third quarter of 2025, if the US federal government reduces interest rates by 125.2% in the second half of 2024.
02:13 Citibank expects the price of gold to rise to $3,000 in the 12-18 months to come.
02:23 The price of gold may rise by more than 50% if the central banks increase their gold purchases sharply. The central banks have increased their gold reserves by leading China and Ukraine.
02:38 They have been able to maintain more than 1,000 tons of gold in the past two years. The central bank of Portugal, which has 71% of its gold reserves, and the US have 68%.
02:56 The central banks are raising their gold reserves to diversify foreign reserves and reduce risks. Do we see gold at new levels in 2024?