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00:00 Soni Patnaik, AVP, JM Financial Services,
00:02 joins us right now on the show with her thoughts
00:04 on how do the markets look and what could the way ahead be.
00:09 Soni, great having you.
00:10 In advance to you and your team at JM, a happy Women's Day.
00:14 You guys are doing an amazing work.
00:17 I would love to know how you guys are thinking
00:19 or how you are thinking about what
00:21 markets could do in the session today ahead of the long weekend.
00:25 Good morning, Neeraj.
00:26 Thank you so much for having me on the show
00:28 and thank you for the special wish.
00:29 I think on just that note, I think
00:31 every day should be Women's Day.
00:33 Agreed.
00:34 So just talking about the markets,
00:36 so Nifty has given a good breakout yesterday.
00:38 It was consolidating.
00:39 It was struggling to break out above 22,450.
00:42 That range, it has broken out yesterday
00:44 with the support from Bank Nifty and IT as well.
00:48 So today being the weekly expiry,
00:49 the expected weekly expiry range for today
00:53 is somewhere between 22,450 to 22,600, 650.
00:56 There's a significant shift of open interest on the put side.
00:59 The highest open interest has come up to be 22,300.
01:03 So in short term, 22,300, 22,200
01:05 holds as a very crucial, important support band.
01:09 As long as that support band is holding,
01:11 you can see 22,800, even 23,000 can be on the cards.
01:15 Similar for Bank Nifty, Bank Nifty is looking quite strong.
01:17 It has given a breakout above 48,000 yesterday.
01:21 Although the closing was below it,
01:23 but Bank Nifty is definitely poised
01:25 to take out its previous all-time highs around 48,600.
01:28 And any move above that, you can see 49,500 plus levels as well,
01:32 which can be on cards.
01:33 Bank Nifty has multiple support.
01:35 You can see 47,500, 47,000, very strong support.
01:39 So I think Bank Nifty structure is slightly better
01:41 than Nifty at the moment.
01:42 And most likely, Bank Nifty can lead the next leg of that.
01:47 Soni, very good morning.
01:49 And I also want to welcome Amisha Vohra.
01:53 You know, you're right.
01:54 Both of you are right.
01:55 Every day should be Women's Day.
01:56 But we are making a special effort
01:58 to focus all the talent there is out there,
02:03 especially in the markets community, which
02:06 sometimes goes under the radar.
02:09 So hence, great to have both of you on the show today.
02:13 Amisha, let me start with your take on the gas pack.
02:16 We have a clutch of notes today.
02:18 And in fact, Motilal Oswal is quite positive on it.
02:24 And city gas companies, what kind of a play
02:28 do you think there will be today?
02:29 A Mahanagar Gas and Indraprastha, both of them
02:32 took a massive knock yesterday.
02:36 When you open up a sector which is, you know,
02:39 their absolute kind of a monopoly,
02:43 definitely there is going to be an impact.
02:47 I would say that because they are very well established,
02:50 it's going to take the competition of time.
02:52 And finally, it is going to be good for the consumers.
02:57 But in the process, these stocks can take little time
03:01 who are losing their monopoly.
03:03 But important part is that even stocks like Gujarat Gas,
03:08 which is not into city distribution,
03:11 but more into commercial distribution,
03:15 there the competitive fuel prices are going up.
03:21 And gas is becoming competitive again.
03:24 So I think these stocks will have a better future
03:28 because of better unit consumed by the commercial units.
03:33 So there will be a transition within the gas pack,
03:36 which is what we will see going forward.
03:42 Got it.
03:44 Amisha, Neeraj here.
03:45 Good morning.
03:46 Hi, Neeraj.
03:46 We're seeing you after a while.
03:48 In fact, probably for the first time on NDTV Profit.
03:50 Is it my imagination or are you looking younger?
03:54 Thank you.
03:57 Amisha, the market's--
03:58 There's no better compliment on Women's Day than this.
04:01 No one better than to know how to give compliments
04:04 than Neeraj.
04:05 No, but we are seeing Amisha for the first time on the channel.
04:08 Yes, absolutely.
04:09 I'm seeing her on TV after such a long time.
04:11 So that's the key thing.
04:12 That's true.
04:13 Amisha--
04:13 That's true.
04:14 Just the broad sense, we got the sense from Sony as well
04:17 about how does the market mood look.
04:20 I'm just trying to understand.
04:21 The last few days, the texture seems
04:23 to have changed in that small caps and mid caps
04:25 are taking it on the chin, while the nifty maybe--
04:28 even if the nifty is stable--
04:29 Holding back.
04:29 Yeah.
04:30 Would you reckon that to be the case going ahead,
04:32 that index might hold out, but the small caps might
04:35 be under further pressure?
04:36 Yes.
04:37 That looks to be a trend, which is
04:40 where the mid caps, small cap will give in or consolidate.
04:45 And see, most of us, we knew that mid caps, small caps
04:49 did exceedingly well.
04:51 I wouldn't say they were in absolute fraud space,
04:54 but quite a few pockets were showing little excesses.
04:58 And we have seen in the past many cycles
05:01 that when this up cycle is pricked,
05:04 then there is a little cascading impact which one sees.
05:08 And probably we are seeing in last four, five days or a week
05:13 that kind of impact being setting in
05:16 into the small cap and mid cap.
05:18 So for some time, we think that the weight
05:21 within the portfolio of large cap and nifty
05:24 could be higher, because they will hold steadier
05:28 in the portfolio as compared to mid cap and small cap.
05:34 Got it.
05:35 OK.
05:36 Amisha, the other aspect is the way
05:38 the market is discounting bad news.
05:42 More than 40%, 45% drop in IFL finance in two days,
05:45 and that was the extent of the impact believed.
05:47 Gas companies, 15% taken in one day,
05:50 that was the extent of the impact to be believed.
05:52 There was a thing about this wind energy companies
05:55 and how they have gotten D-rated after having
05:57 such a rosy picture and outlook for the next decade.
06:00 But four days on a trot, a lower circuit, D-rated.
06:03 Is the market in the mood for taking out
06:06 all bad news with a strong stick in a session itself?
06:14 So it's more something like this,
06:16 that they saw what happened from the IFL-JM perspective,
06:20 I'm saying, that they saw what happened in BTM
06:23 and the extent of damage that it could do.
06:27 So that's why I think the fear factor was really
06:30 too high in the rest of the two actions which
06:34 happened by RBI.
06:38 And if they stop, for example, or even if it will be won over,
06:44 gold finance, but that is the heartline
06:46 of the business for IFL.
06:48 So I would say that that actually
06:51 has an impact on their business.
06:54 But coming back to even gas companies, an overall trend,
06:58 when you get to pay the M2M or margins,
07:03 you become very jittery.
07:05 And that is the time when you decide, OK, there's bad news.
07:09 First, let's get rid of this.
07:10 And that is a kind of a psychology
07:12 also which is playing out, where bad news is truly pronounced.
07:17 Because the rest of the markets are
07:19 showing a kind of a corrective mode,
07:21 and there are payments that people might have to do.
07:26 Absolutely.
07:28 Amisha, once again, so fantastic to have you here on Women's Day.
07:33 And the fact is that there is so much talent out there.
07:39 We need to showcase it as channels, as platforms,
07:42 and we're hoping to do that today.
07:44 But coming back to what is happening in the markets
07:46 right now and the kind of nervousness we are seeing,
07:49 what in your view is the play?
07:51 A lot of people are sitting today perhaps watching this,
07:55 looking at their portfolios, and saying, yes,
07:57 I have bet on the India story.
07:59 I know that this is the fastest growing economy in the world.
08:02 But right now, my portfolio is not looking too great.
08:05 They've been hammered on the small and mid-cap stocks.
08:08 Is this the time to rejig, look at your larger players?
08:12 And if so, which spaces are looking the best to you?
08:16 See, I would say that 50%, 55% plus allocation
08:23 should go back to large caps, whether it is only nifty
08:27 or a little outside nifty is OK.
08:30 And within that space, I would continue
08:33 to say that private banks who are showing very healthy
08:37 business trend but have not quite equally participated
08:43 in last 12 months should find a good place.
08:49 Of course, ICICI Bank continues to be one of the top picks,
08:52 but the rest one can choose within the private sector pack.
08:58 And to some extent, you see within BFSI,
09:04 HDFC Life Insurance, so insurance pack also
09:09 can come in because they went through a full set of pain,
09:14 which is there because of the last year's
09:16 change in IRDA policy.
09:18 So the base effect is now factored
09:21 in post-March quarter, which is still
09:24 going to be impacted by the last year's changes, which
09:27 is the last quarter.
09:28 First quarter onwards, we will start seeing growth.
09:31 So this talk again, on sector, the life insurance
09:36 will be back in action in the new financial year.
09:41 And so also I feel that in the large cap infrastructure play,
09:46 Larsen continues to look really very good
09:50 because of the overall economy where
09:53 things are falling in place, they
09:55 will be one of the well-placed.
09:57 So from large cap perspective, we
10:00 continue to remain with private banks, infrastructure.
10:06 It's not only Larsen, but Siemens also,
10:10 auto and insurance as three, four key areas
10:15 where portfolio should be.
10:17 And I would still say that selectively, mid-cap,
10:21 small-cap, after this particular round of route,
10:25 we'll continue to do well.
10:27 I don't think it is all over as yet.
10:30 And this party will continue for much longer.
10:34 Just I want to take a quick word from Soni
10:38 for her picks of the day, which we usually
10:40 do around this time.
10:43 You know, you spoke about levels, Soni,
10:45 and obviously, happy Women's Day in advance.
10:48 Great to have you on the show as well.
10:50 But what would be your top picks for the day?
10:54 So the first pick would be HDFC Life.
10:57 We've seen a significant breakout above 600 level
10:59 two days ago.
11:00 It held well even in yesterday's trophy market.
11:04 That's a very strong support.
11:05 There's an option chain breakout as well above 600.
11:07 So HDFC Life will be the first pick.
11:09 Buy at current levels with stop loss of 600
11:12 and target of 660.
11:15 The second pick would be in Axis Bank.
11:17 Axis Bank has seen aggressive short covering yesterday.
11:21 There's a breakout on daily charts as well
11:23 and an option chain breakout above 1,100 level.
11:26 So Axis Bank, you can buy at current levels
11:28 with a stop loss of 1090 and target for 1,200.
11:32 Amisha, I'll come to you first.
11:34 Now, maybe I missed it, but I heard you refer to,
11:38 you know, the instances that happen in JM,
11:42 maybe in a Paytm, maybe in IFL Finance.
11:45 I just want to understand from you,
11:46 when I take a look at both the instances,
11:49 at least IFL Finance and JM, objectively,
11:53 the price erosion that has happened in these businesses
11:57 kind of makes up for the business loss, more or less.
12:02 Now, my question is,
12:04 I'm not asking you to make a specific comment
12:06 because I can understand they are in the same field as you are,
12:08 but I'm just trying to understand from you,
12:10 when you think of instances like these,
12:12 can you look at these things objectively
12:13 and say that for a long-term investor,
12:15 maybe these are good times to buy?
12:17 IFL Finance yesterday, for example,
12:18 saw some serious delivery-based buying as well,
12:21 despite the fact that it was on a lower circuit,
12:22 the volumes were large.
12:26 So, yes, I would say that these are more like institutions,
12:31 both of them, even if there are certain irregularities,
12:35 they will correct it and make sure
12:37 that they get complied again.
12:40 So it's a question of time,
12:42 that over a life of an organization of say 30, 40, 50 years,
12:47 there could be a patch of one year which will slow down
12:51 or which will go into correction.
12:53 And particularly for JM,
12:54 I think this is just one of their businesses.
12:57 The rest of the all businesses are doing so well.
13:00 So one part of the business has got compliance-related issues
13:05 which they will correct, I'm very sure.
13:07 So I do agree with you that from a very long-term perspective,
13:11 both these franchising can be looked at.
13:13 Okay, fair call.
13:16 The other thing, and actually, Soni,
13:19 it might be difficult to ask about technical views
13:21 on some of these or derivative views on some of these
13:23 'cause they've been locked on a circuit.
13:25 But banks yesterday, Soni, had a good move, right?
13:28 So are there banks that are a part of your buy list today?
13:31 I'm talking about financials by and large,
13:32 but banks in particular.
13:34 I don't know if you gave a bank idea as a stock idea,
13:36 but if not, is there--
13:37 - Axis. - Axis, okay.
13:39 So I stand corrected there, Axis is one good name.
13:41 Anything else?
13:42 HDFC Bank had some fairly interesting moves too yesterday.
13:46 - Yes, definitely.
13:47 I think apart from Axis, we can see ICICI and HDFC Bank
13:50 looking quite good on charts
13:51 and derivative for our data as well.
13:53 I think if you look at HDFC Bank,
13:55 it has taken good support from 1400, 1420,
13:57 which was acting as some consolidation resistance.
14:00 It has broken past above it and going ahead,
14:03 we can see that it can test 1480 to 1500.
14:06 Of course, this is more of a positional play,
14:07 but for the short term on charts,
14:09 it looks like that the correction
14:11 that had happened in HDFC Bank is mostly done and dusted,
14:14 and this could be the reversal from here on.
14:16 So it's looking quite strong
14:17 to play for a short term trading perspective
14:20 and look for targets of 1500 plus also it can test,
14:23 but the first target definitely will be 1500.
14:26 - Amisha, Bora, I want to come to you on,
14:29 you know, what you would do with your PSUs right now.
14:33 And we'll talk about PSBs,
14:35 public sector banks as a separate bucket in just a bit,
14:38 but this is one space, which I would say after decades
14:43 has now got the confidence of investors
14:46 that these companies will perform,
14:48 their balance sheets will be cleaned up,
14:50 that profitability and shareholder rewards
14:54 and shareholder value will be one of the priorities.
14:58 Do you think that that sentiment,
15:00 that positive sentiment is now completely priced in,
15:04 or is this a space which is one of your key sectors
15:07 safe for this year?
15:08 - See, PSU as a pack, having gained the confidence
15:15 of all kinds of investors,
15:17 whether it is UHNI, AIFs,
15:22 or even mutual funds and retail,
15:24 I think that as a trend that will continue.
15:27 Within that, if defense is doing very well,
15:31 then defense stocks might do much better.
15:34 Or if there is some other pocket,
15:37 for example, some refinery stock, MRPL or something,
15:42 then they will do well.
15:44 But overall, they will have one thing in common,
15:48 that because they are PSU and they are untouchable
15:51 because of the management and capital allocation issues,
15:55 I think that will be behind us.
15:57 And they will also participate in line
16:00 with what growth prospects that they are holding.
16:03 - You know, on the public sector banks,
16:09 and Sonia also spoke to some extent
16:12 about the banking space that she likes.
16:14 So would your bet continue to be, Amisha ji,
16:17 on public sector banks?
16:19 If so, which would be your top picks in this space?
16:21 - Public sector banks will also continue to do well,
16:26 I believe, both because of the overall macro
16:30 and the micro in which each of the banks are operating.
16:34 SBI still has a lot of legs in terms of investor returns.
16:40 So SBI within the PSU bank will continue to be
16:43 one of the top picks
16:45 because of the kind of valuable subsidiaries,
16:48 apart from one of the very niche,
16:50 technologically advanced public sector bank,
16:54 their subsidiaries like even SBI Mutual Fund,
16:57 SBI Life Insurance, SBI Cards, and so on,
17:01 General Insurance, are all very, very valuable.
17:05 Apart from that, I would think that
17:08 Canada Bank continues to look good.
17:10 And beyond that, I think most of the other
17:14 public sector banks are also,
17:16 in terms of asset quality, coming back big time.
17:20 - Amisha, somebody made this interesting point yesterday
17:25 about how indices have gone through change in weightages
17:28 and what could happen to specific indices
17:30 and could real estate as an index come back?
17:33 It used to be 7% weightage on the index,
17:35 now it's about 1, 1.2% even after the rally.
17:38 Are you constructive on real estate stocks,
17:40 part one, and part two?
17:42 If so, I mean, is it pan-India players?
17:44 Is it regional players?
17:45 What is it that you like?
17:47 - So real estate is a space
17:49 I continue to remain constructive.
17:52 Of course, the trend started just after COVID
17:57 when a huge confluence of very low,
18:03 you know, index of home buying in India
18:08 compared to its last 15 years helped push the demand.
18:14 But after having said so,
18:17 we still continue to remain bullish
18:19 because this is the time when again,
18:22 land has, and the construction ability,
18:26 development ability has become critical,
18:29 and there is sufficient demand.
18:30 So the working capital cycle has crunched
18:34 within the industry, return ratios have improved,
18:38 and I think this trend has made the balance sheet
18:41 of most of the players very, very healthy.
18:45 Plus, some of the large players are sitting
18:47 on huge land bank, because of which their ability
18:52 to keep churning out this cash continues
18:56 to remain for a very long time.
18:59 So yes, I remain constructive on the sector,
19:02 but I also feel that instead of a very large
19:07 all India player, we can choose of the right player
19:12 within the geography will be a better strategy.
19:16 - Soni, the YTD performance of the cement stocks
19:20 has not been great at all.
19:22 Do you see some downsides there?
19:24 Because I was looking at the YTD performance
19:26 except for Star and Ambuja,
19:27 most others have looked wobbly.
19:30 - So Neeraj, if you look at from the data perspective,
19:34 there has been some selling pressure for the entire pack
19:37 in the past two or three odd days.
19:39 However, this is on contrary note to how the rollovers
19:42 had acted out for the cement space,
19:45 from the Feb to March CDs,
19:46 and it was actually indicating at a long rollover.
19:49 So maybe this entire pack could see some continuation
19:52 in the selling pressure,
19:54 but however, this also remains as a buy on dips.
19:56 I think a lot of stocks,
19:58 they can give another 5% max correction
20:01 and that could act as a good level to re-initiate longs.
20:04 It is in a few quality stocks,
20:06 which we can see from the data perspective,
20:08 in Ambuja cement, ACC,
20:10 you can see these stocks can at least bounce back.
20:12 So there are a lot of support also,
20:14 they've not tested those support.
20:16 So I think Ambuja 580 is a good support, 585, 75.
20:19 If it's able to hold that support,
20:21 it should definitely bounce back
20:22 and then head again towards 620 odd levels.
20:25 I think these are some of the stocks
20:26 that we can still look at on the entire pack.
20:29 - Amisha, Vora, I wanted your take on not just auto,
20:32 but on Tata Motors too,
20:35 with the whole demerger buzz around it,
20:37 there's a Moody's rating and a Moody's note as well.
20:41 How do you look at the space
20:43 and is it safe to say that Tata Motors
20:45 will be the pack leader in the PV segment at least?
20:48 - So on an overall basis,
20:51 yes, Tata Motors will continue to chuck along very well
20:56 with the increased focus that individual demerged entity
21:01 will have to pursue their own individual goals.
21:06 And the stock is from COVID almost has been a 10 bagger
21:11 and I still feel that they continue to,
21:14 will continue to do very well.
21:17 Each of their segment actually is doing very, very well.
21:22 And the fact that they are demerging
21:24 shows that within the EV business also
21:27 and passenger vehicle business also,
21:31 they're seeing so much strength
21:32 that their CapEx requirement or cashflow requirement
21:36 will be met by that individual business
21:38 and will not have to lean onto commercial vehicle business,
21:41 which always has been the case in past 10 to 15 years.
21:45 So I do believe that from here on also
21:48 the story will continue.
21:49 - So the Tata Motors story will continue,
21:53 but within the pack, what would be your big bet Amisha
21:57 on the two-wheeler and the four-wheeler space?
22:00 - Tata Motors is one of the stocks
22:03 that we've been recommending.
22:06 And overall, when you see the four-wheeler pack
22:10 along with four-wheeler pack,
22:14 we believe from the listed space,
22:16 Tata Motors continues to be one of our top pick currently.
22:19 - Okay, so Tata Motors is your top pick
22:22 and of course, Hiromoto in the two-wheeler space.
22:25 Sodi, I'm going to ask you,
22:27 your take on the auto pack
22:29 and what are you liking over here?
22:30 - So in the auto space, the first pick would be Maruti.
22:34 We've seen a significant move in Maruti
22:37 in the last series as well as in the series
22:40 and it's holding above a good breakout level
22:42 above 11,200.
22:44 So as long as in short-term perspective,
22:45 11,200 is getting defended,
22:48 it can definitely head towards 11,800 to 12,000.
22:51 The stock is looking quite good.
22:53 A small decline would be the right amount
22:55 or the right level to just enter somewhere around 11,400
22:58 should do the trick.
23:00 And keep your stop losses at 11,200
23:02 for a target of 11,800 to 12,000.
23:04 So this would be the first pick
23:06 and the second pick would be in TVS Motor.
23:07 We've seen TVS Motor in a continuous uptrend
23:11 and any small correction, any small decline,
23:13 it always turns into a good buying opportunity.
23:16 It has given a very good breakout above 2,200 level.
23:20 So any small decline that one can see in TVS Motor
23:22 towards 20 to 40, 20 to 50 should be a good level
23:26 to re-initiate the longs,
23:27 keep your stop losses at 2,200.
23:29 The stock can test 2,400 in couple days.
23:32 - Okay, well, the market's about to start.
23:37 Take a moment to thank both of you, Amisha, Soni.
23:39 Thank you so much for joining me today
23:40 and have a fabulous weekend.
23:42 And thanks for making our morning special
23:44 with your presence.
23:45 (upbeat music)
23:47 (dramatic music)