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00:00 The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates without any change in the March meeting.
00:07 But there are many questions that investors and economists raise,
00:12 specifically regarding the US Federal Reserve's waiting period until today before it starts reducing interest rates.
00:21 The most prominent issue in the March meeting was the "dot plot" and how the price of the members of the
00:27 Monetary Policy Committee's report on interest rates over the next three years.
00:32 Nothing has changed for 2024.
00:36 There are still prices and expectations that we will have three operations to reduce interest rates this year,
00:43 despite the increases we have seen in the inflation data.
00:47 But if we look at 2025 and 2026, we will notice that there was a rise in interest rates for these two years,
00:59 regardless of where the interest rates will be in 2025 and 2026.
01:05 But the market did not focus on this issue.
01:08 The market, and specifically the stock markets, focused more on the expectations that there are still
01:14 three operations to reduce interest rates this year.
01:17 But if we look at the long term, there was a rise in interest rate expectations from 2.5% to 2.6%.
01:26 Today, the most important question is why is the US Federal Reserve waiting before it starts reducing interest rates?
01:33 In 2021, when we saw the global inflation wave,
01:41 the US Federal Reserve insisted that this inflation is temporary and that it is too late to start increasing interest rates.
01:51 Today, some are afraid that it is behind the curve again, but this time it is about starting to reduce interest rates.
01:59 If we look at the inflation figures, the preferred inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, the Core PCE,
02:04 is higher than the Federal Reserve target by only 80 points.
02:08 But these 80 points are the last mile,
02:12 the 80 most difficult points for any central bank and for the Federal Reserve,
02:18 which is usually the target at 2%.
02:22 Therefore, there may be a justification for the Federal Reserve to maintain a high interest rate
02:28 to ensure that these 80 points disappear and the inflation returns to 2%.
02:33 But what is the risk?
02:35 There is an economic base known as the Taylor Rule.
02:38 It is a base that measures where the interest rates should be
02:42 in view of the difference between the expectations and the actual rates for the expansion and economic growth,
02:49 and taking into account what is known as the neutral rate.
02:54 In 2021, the Taylor Rule estimated that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve and delayed in increasing interest rates.
03:01 The evidence is that it maintained interest rates without any change at the time when the Taylor Rule indicated that interest rates should be increased.
03:09 Today, we see a very similar scenario, but it is the opposite,
03:14 where the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates and the Taylor Rule says that interest rates should be reduced.
03:21 What does this mean?
03:22 This means that in the coming period, we may see an adjustment to where the Federal Reserve sees the neutral rate,
03:30 which does not mean a renewal of the monetary policy or easing.
03:33 If the neutral rate is adjusted, it will be adjusted in this clear form
03:39 and the Federal Reserve will have the right to maintain interest rates at these levels for a longer period.
03:45 But this will not be without risk, especially since we have started to see a crash in the commercial real estate market in the United States.
03:56 This indicates that we are starting to see an effect of high interest rates on the economy itself.