تركيا تفاجئ الأسواق برفع معدلات الفائدة إلى 50%
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00:00 A surprising decision by the Turkish Central Bank, by raising interest rates from 45% to 50%.
00:09 What are the reasons for this increase, especially since it practically changed what it said in the last meetings,
00:16 when it said that interest rates have reached their peak.
00:20 So, the increase now takes interest rates to be at 50% to 100% levels,
00:25 at a time when we also saw stability in inflation, but it is still at 77%.
00:35 If we take this increase and compare it with current interest rates,
00:40 we find that the real interest rates, which exclude inflation, are still in the negative range.
00:47 This decision comes after Turkish Lira, which we saw, was at 7% from the beginning of this year,
00:55 to be one of the worst currencies in the emerging markets, compared to the US Dollar.
01:01 But what is striking is the timing of this increase by the Turkish Central Bank,
01:06 especially since it comes before the local elections, which will take place on March 31.
01:14 What the Turkish Central Bank is trying to do is not only to lower inflation rates,
01:19 especially since it said in the statement that this inflation will start in the second half of this year.
01:28 But it is not the only justification.
01:30 If we go back to the end of last year and the Turkish presidential elections,
01:34 Turkish Lira had reached world-class levels compared to the US Dollar after the elections.
01:42 Today, this decision comes before the 31st of March,
01:47 which is the date of the local elections in Turkey.
01:52 The Turkish Central Bank is preparing for these elections
01:56 and is preventing sharp withdrawals of Turkish Lira through this decision.
02:01 Especially since the Justice and Development Party is trying to withdraw all of Istanbul and Ankara
02:07 from the control of the opposition and on the other hand, historically,
02:12 and considering the previous elections, we had sharp withdrawals of Turkish Lira
02:17 after the announcement of the victory of Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
02:20 How did the markets react?
02:21 Turkish Lira rose after this decision by almost 1.3% compared to the US Dollar.
02:27 But this is not the most important thing.
02:29 The most important thing is the cost of insurance on Turkish loans,
02:32 which is known as the credit default swaps, which have been at the highest level since the beginning of this year.
02:38 This decision reflects that there is a greater independence for the Turkish Central Bank
02:44 and that it is no longer controlled by the Turkish government
02:48 and it is a matter that any investor in Turkish assets is always welcome to.
02:52 The question now is whether this is the end or whether we will see another increase in interest rates
02:58 before the end of this year. This is what we will follow and follow its impact.