"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (27/03/2024) dengan Tema Analisis IHSG dan Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan".
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00:00 From the information about the performance of CEPIN in 2023,
00:04 we turn to some information about the emittance that we summarized in the graphic of the emittance highlights.
00:10 The first is the Indonesian EFFICT Bursa which recorded 2 emittance.
00:14 It has reached the price of 1 rupiah, which is PT Sejatera Bintang Abadi Textile or SBAT
00:22 and PT Mitra Komunikasi Nusantara TBK or MKNT.
00:26 Then, there are foreign investors who bought BBRI and also MRT shares
00:31 when the ISG fell in the trading of the day after yesterday.
00:34 From the emittance highlights, we invite you to look at the following economic agendas.
00:41 Among them, there is the inventory of US raw oil,
00:45 then there is the expectation of European Union consumer inflation.
00:50 Next, there is a meeting of the VPC Bank of England from England and the Consumer Price Index from Spain,
00:58 Profit Industry from China, Pidato Bank of Japan, Tamura in Japan,
01:04 then the Index of Manufacturing Business Survey from South Korea.
01:08 As for the emitter from the emittance agenda, there is ADMF,
01:15 which will direct the RUPS or the General Meeting of Stockholders, as well as TEMAS.
01:20 Then there is MEGA, the payment date of cash dividends,
01:24 HTM, the date of DPS cash dividends, and ISP, the date of ex-dividend cash.
01:30 Update from the stock market, this morning, the full data can be seen on the screen,
01:36 which may be a reference to the movement of the joint stock price index on Wednesday, March 27, 2024.
01:46 As we can see, for Nikkei Japan, the share price rose by 0.59%,
01:51 Shred Time Singapore rose by 0.52%,
01:53 KOSPI South Korea rose by 0.14%,
01:56 Hang Seng Hong Kong rose by 0.88%,
01:59 all the openings this morning are compact, moving in a positive direction.
02:04 [Music]
02:07 This morning, we will discuss through video conference with Mr. Ezharido Ibnutama,
02:13 Head of Technical Analysis, Henan Putirai Securities.
02:16 Mr. Ezhar, how are you?
02:18 I'm fine, thank you.
02:22 Thank you for joining us this morning, Mr. Ezhar.
02:24 We just saw the data we showed, the stock market is all in a positive territory.
02:30 How is the opportunity of the joint stock price index, considering tomorrow is the last day of trading,
02:35 and on Friday we will celebrate Jumat Agung for the people who celebrate the Christmas.
02:43 How do you see the opportunity of IHSG?
02:45 We see that the recent IHSG is in the short term, in the sideways trend.
02:56 And because IHSG is in the sideways trend after IHSG rebounded at around 7,300,
03:05 after reaching the all-time high in the last few weeks,
03:12 there are indeed some things that we have to be concerned about.
03:19 Because even though investors feel safe or confident,
03:27 there is a period of transition,
03:32 which is the transition period from the Dokowi administration to the Prabowo administration.
03:40 And there are some programs that Dokowi will continue, there will be a continuation.
03:47 I think that's what the voters chose at the end.
03:51 But there are a few things that have to be concerned about,
03:56 that must be monitored in the future,
03:59 namely, we have to see that the consumer purchasing power of the Indonesian people is starting to weaken.
04:07 And it seems that if we look at the Indonesia Bank survey,
04:11 which was just published last week,
04:17 the Indonesian consumers are starting to decline,
04:28 I mean, they are starting to weaken in terms of their consumption,
04:33 and they are starting to focus on saving and paying small bills.
04:37 This is one of the factors that may be concerning,
04:42 because we are already starting to celebrate Eid,
04:45 and the second quarter, because of the seasonality,
04:49 because it is celebrated on Eid, consumption should be better.
04:55 Later, the demand may be offset,
04:58 because there is a fairly long holiday in the second quarter.
05:03 But if we look at the trend,
05:07 if we look at the trend from the past few months,
05:11 people are using credit facilities for essential spending,
05:27 not non-essential spending, but essential spending.
05:29 So, to buy groceries, such as food and drinks,
05:35 and this is very concerning, because if the consumer purchasing power becomes much weaker in the future,
05:43 even though there is a high spending season in the second quarter,
05:48 in the third and fourth quarters,
05:50 the consumer cyclicals will start to decline,
05:55 and it could make the consumer base in Indonesia less attractive,
06:02 maybe for investors from outside.
06:06 Okay. For now, if we look at the index of the joint stock price in the quarter,
06:11 it is 0.47%.
06:13 In the short term, how do you see the technical trend for the joint stock price index and for the medium term?
06:20 We see that the ESG will definitely be sideways in the short term,
06:28 but maybe in terms of the economy, it will start to weaken.
06:36 But in terms of the overall for the target price,
06:42 it should be breaking out at an uptrend.
06:44 Even though the overall economy, the consumer purchasing power is starting to weaken,
06:49 we see people starting to use credit facilities,
06:54 multi-finance facilities.
06:56 That's why digital banking, the multi-finance industry, and conventional banking are more attractive right now.
07:02 Because even though it's not going to be very good for the consumer as a whole,
07:09 but it's going to be very good for the banking industry
07:17 and the multi-finance industry,
07:19 because more people are using credit facilities.
07:23 We also anticipate that the Fed has said that there will be 75 basis points cut in the Fed rate.
07:35 We also anticipate that the BI rate will be reduced three times as well.
07:41 Okay, Mr. Zedah.
07:43 So, we're still waiting for the decision of the Fed.
07:47 But first, the inflation data from the US will be released this Friday,
07:52 but it will probably be reflected on Monday,
07:55 because the US and Indonesia will celebrate Jumat Agung on Friday.
07:59 What will the short-term ESG opportunity be like?
08:02 We anticipate that the inflation rate is still above the Fed's target inflation rate.
08:12 So, the inflation rate is still sticky, still above 2%.
08:18 And this is because of the cost-push inflation.
08:23 Because if we look at the producer manufacturing index from Japan and China,
08:32 the supply is indeed decreasing, and there is still a shortage.
08:39 So, the inflation rate is still above the current supply.
08:46 So, that's why there is an increase, and that's why inflation remains sticky for now.
08:52 It's going to be expected,
08:56 but the impact of the ESG will make the Indonesian stock market more attractive than the US.
09:08 So, what will the opportunity be like if the attractive level rises?
09:12 Yes, it looks like the trend is currently in an uptrend.
09:26 Okay, okay. What is the range, Mr. Eza?
09:30 For the short-term index, the price-to-join ratio, if you say attractive,
09:33 and the tendency will still rise even though the US inflation rate is still above the target.
09:40 The ESG is likely to return to its all-time high resistance at 7,445.
09:48 Okay, 7,445 will be the all-time high again, the opportunity for next week.
09:52 If so, with that potential, what is the strategy?
09:56 We will discuss it in the next segment.
09:58 Next, Mr. Eza, don't hesitate and also recommend the option to stay with us, Mr. Mirza, in the marketbuzz segment.
10:04 Thank you, Mr. Mirza, you are back with us and we will continue to discuss with Mr. Eza Ridho Ibnutama,
10:09 Head of Technical Analysis at Senan Putih Raisekuritas.
10:12 Okay, Mr. Eza, if you say that in the short term, when looking for a list of US inflation data this Friday,
10:18 you said that the Indonesian market is still attractive,
10:22 so there is still a chance to test the all-time high level above 7,400.
10:27 So, what is the strategy, in line with or using the momentum of the ESG to reach 7,400 again, Mr. Eza?
10:34 Maybe we can monitor more aggressive sectors, such as finance, banking, and also energy.
10:48 At the moment, coal is at a fairly high price after the rebound at the beginning of the year.
10:59 And also, the oil price is also at a high level.
11:04 Although we anticipate that OPEC+ will increase its production rate after the second quarter,
11:16 but at the moment it is still attractive to monitor.
11:20 So, energy, banking, and also non-cyclical consumers.
11:24 Because we are approaching Eid, so we anticipate high season for spending.
11:31 So, energy, banking, and non-cyclical consumers?
11:36 Correct.
11:38 Okay, let's see, Mr. Mirza, some recommendations on the selection that represent those sectors,
11:43 we summarized in the graph, the sources are of course from Mr. Eza Ridho as follows.
11:47 The stocks recommended by Mr. Mirza are SMDR,
11:56 SMDR is recommended by Mr. Eza with support in the range of 304, there is resistance at 336, Mr. Mirza.
12:04 Then there is also a recommendation from Temas, support at 153, resistance at 169, and there is HUMI.
12:15 We will show the more complete presentation later, we will discuss one by one.
12:19 Mr. Eza, SMDR, why do you recommend SMDR?
12:25 Well, in addition to banking, non-cyclical consumers, and non-cyclical consumers and energy,
12:34 we also have to look at support infrastructure or support services for all industries,
12:44 namely logistics, which is also one of the industries that is the base for all industries.
13:03 Because, maybe not directly to the banks, but in the case of non-cyclical consumers and energy,
13:13 SMDR has a lot of shipments, imports and exports, and also from one area to another.
13:22 We see that because there is a high season, preparation for the high season, there are a lot of shipments,
13:30 and a lot of transportation from abroad to many activities in terms of the orders.
13:41 That's what we see.
13:45 You said there is support resistance for SMDR entry level at 318 to 322.
13:52 If we look at yesterday, it was still at 322, which means buy at the current level, up to 318, right?
14:00 Yes.
14:02 Okay, the target is at 336 to 338.
14:07 Yes, that's right.
14:10 If it is achieved, it can be up to 356 to 358.
14:15 Yes, that's right.
14:18 What is the stop loss level?
14:20 Stop loss?
14:24 Stop loss or yes.
14:26 SMDR cut loss at 308 to 304.
14:33 308 to 304, if it is below that, the possibility will be downtrend.
14:37 But technically, what pattern does this show on the screen?
14:41 If we look at it, it looks like a new pattern of bullish engulfing.
14:53 So if I look at it from the latest two candles, it's bullish engulfing.
14:59 Okay, that's the recommendation for the SMDR.
15:02 Let's move on to Temas.
15:06 Temas is still about transportation and logistics, right?
15:09 Yes, so Temas is the same.
15:12 Our advice is to buy because it is in the logistics industry.
15:18 And entry level at 161 to 163, the target is at 169 to 171.
15:27 If it has been achieved and can be broken from there, the next target is at 176 to 178.
15:36 Cut loss at 155 to 153.
15:39 3D at 161 to 163 and then there is a target of 169.
15:46 If it is achieved, it can be 171 and if it can be broken, it can be 176 to 178.
15:53 Stop loss at 155 to 153.
15:56 This morning, Temas rose almost 2% or in position 166 because there may be ROPS.
16:03 Yes, that's right.
16:05 What is expected from ROPS?
16:08 And if it has risen to 166, what level will you buy it at?
16:11 Because the level for buying that you gave at 161 to 163 has passed.
16:19 The expectation is that there should be some corporate actions in expansion
16:29 and there may also be discussions for some shareholder and management re-shuffling.
16:43 Not with dividends?
16:47 For the dividends, there are also some corporate actions.
16:58 For Temas, our advice is to buy on weakness.
17:05 If it has been corrected at 161, it is already.
17:09 Oh, keep buying at the low price, don't be chased if it has risen today.
17:13 Yes.
17:16 Okay, we'll wait. Can we break the target of 169 to 171?
17:20 Okay, you recommend HUMi energy.
17:23 Yes, HUMi is also in the field of transportation, but they are transported by oil and gas.
17:33 Why is HUMi so attractive?
17:37 Because HUMi focuses on logistics and oil and gas.
17:48 But without being too volatile or being too attached or reliant on oil and gas prices,
17:57 they become just like their support.
18:00 But because oil and gas are very attractive right now,
18:04 logistics and support can also be improved.
18:12 That's why we recommend HUMi for the entry level at 96 to 98.
18:21 The target is at 104 to 106, the stop loss is at 93 to 91.
18:27 This morning, HUMi has risen by 2% because it showed 9 o'clock for more than 4 minutes.
18:32 HUMi rose 2% at 97, passing the purchase level of Mazeza.
18:37 Can it still be bought at the current price level?
18:39 Still.
18:42 Okay, there is a target at 104 to 106, the stop loss is 93 to 91 for HUMi.
18:48 Last, TPMA.
18:51 TPMA has the same sentiment as HUMi.
18:58 Because Marine Transpower is also related to oil and gas and non-renewable energy.
19:08 The basic support is just as much as their support.
19:11 That's why our advice is to buy at the entry level of 710 to 720.
19:18 The target is at 760 to 770, the stop loss is at 680 to 670.
19:25 Maybe TPMA just corrected, but our advice is still at the entry level of 710 to 720.
19:33 So just buy on break.
19:35 Just buy on break.
19:36 That's the recommendation.
19:37 Entry level 710 to 720, target 760 to 770, stop loss 680 to 670.
19:46 When it's at 700, wait a minute, because it's going down.
19:49 Buy if you can at 710 to 720.
19:53 Yes.
19:55 Okay, we will show you again the graphic of the next selection.
20:00 You can see the full screen.
20:01 The same as recommended is SMDR with the support resistance that we have discussed.
20:07 Then Temas and there is also HUMi, buy on break.
20:11 And there is also TPMA, recommended to buy.
20:16 That's it, Pemirsa.
20:17 It is more dominated by logistics, especially services and energy stocks.
20:24 Okay, Maz Eza, the trading opening this morning has been live.
20:28 Because it shows 9 past 6 minutes, West Indonesia time, Pemirsa.
20:32 IHSG increased by 0.06%, it's a bit thin.
20:36 7370, we reviewed and we present the complete information of the opening of trading session 1.
20:43 After the break, stay with us in the market bus segment.
20:47 Thank you, Pemirsa, you are back with us in the market bus segment.
20:50 We will continue the discussion with Maz Eza Ridho from Henan Putirai.
20:54 And we will handle the opening of trading this morning.
20:57 Where the index of the price and the joint are monitored, Pemirsa weakens 0.04%.
21:01 Even though it was strong before.
21:03 And now it weakens at 7364, down 1 point.
21:07 With the value of the exchange of rupiah against the US dollar.
21:10 It weakens again to 15,800 or weakens 0.22% against the US dollar.
21:17 And the complete data on the recommended stock that we have mentioned earlier, Pemirsa.
21:22 We will cross-check whether there is any in the top gainers based on value and top losers.
21:27 Observed there is PNLF which is 2% stronger or financial balance at 288.
21:34 Then TOSK, TPIA, IDPR, Gajatunggal, Pemirsa.
21:40 Then GTRA, Tugu, SMLE, MANG and Indy.
21:45 Which increased 1.35% at 1,500 also entered the top gainers based on value.
21:50 Opening of the first trading session.
21:52 Then Losers Go To went down again, 1.43% at 69.
21:56 Indofood also still down 1% at 6,300.
22:00 NISP down 3.47% at 1,390.
22:06 Cepin which just released its energy yesterday, Pemirsa, down 1.5%.
22:11 Bukap, PDPP, Life, Akras, Lis, Film.
22:16 All entered the top losers category based on value.
22:19 But Pemirsa will continue to undergo changes because the time is still in the early minutes of the opening of the first trading session.
22:26 Mas Eza, how do you see the opening of the trading session this morning?
22:30 Yesterday, the target was BBRI, AMRT.
22:34 If you look at IASG first, why did it go down?
22:37 Earlier, the trading session went up, then down.
22:39 Is there a link with Rupiah which again, weakened?
22:43 There is indeed a link with Rupiah because it is indeed IASG which is no longer suitable for foreign investors.
22:54 And if we look at the top losers, it is indeed from the trading industry.
23:01 And if we look at Cepin, the results are indeed less.
23:07 And if we look at other industries, we have seen some new earnings reports.
23:17 And it seems like the consumer cyclicals and others, the full year report is not suitable or not met expectations like Cepin.
23:33 For Gotoh, yes.
23:36 Mas Eza, what is the target of IASG in the short term?
23:39 You said earlier that next week you will probably test the highest level again at 7,400.
23:45 But the nearest one, the support-resistance?
23:48 The nearest resistance should be at 7,300.
23:56 7,380.
23:58 7,300?
24:00 That is the nearest.
24:01 80, the nearest support?
24:02 80.
24:03 Oh, resistance?
24:04 Yes.
24:05 The nearest support?
24:06 Yes, resistance.
24:07 The nearest support is at 7,333.
24:12 7,333.
24:13 Okay, what is the current trend?
24:16 Right now, if we look at the major trend, it is the ascending triangle pattern.
24:24 Okay.
24:25 Ascending triangle pattern.
24:26 Okay, that's it, the recommendation from the shareholder for the index, price, and joint and the opportunity.
24:31 Unfortunately, Mas Eza, we have discussed a lot this morning, but our time is limited.
24:37 Thank you for joining us, Mas Eza.
24:40 Hopefully, what we discussed here can be a reference for you to practice.
24:44 Thank you.
24:45 Good luck to you. See you again.
24:48 Thank you.
24:49 Thank you.
24:50 [Music]
24:53 [BLANK_AUDIO]