Why Arsenal Can Finally Beat Man City At The Etihad
Arsenal haven't won at the Etihad Stadium since 2015. Since then, a lot has changed at both clubs.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 [Music]
00:05 Now, the thing of utmost importance for any team that's playing Manchester City, not just Arsenal,
00:09 is the team's off-the-ball shape and how they try and nullify Manchester City when Manchester City have the ball.
00:14 And Arsenal actually did a fantastic job of this at the Emirates Stadium earlier this season, which we'll look at in a minute.
00:20 But Arsenal's defensive stats, I mean, they've got the best defence in the league,
00:23 so it's a brilliant foundation for them to build this off-the-ball shape around.
00:28 Here's some of the defensive stats from October when Arsenal won 1-0 against Manchester City at the Emirates Stadium.
00:33 Now, these are the tackling stats in particular, which paint a picture of how Arsenal really won the ball when they were off of it.
00:39 There was 20 tackles made and 12 were won in total, but if you break up where those tackles were committed on the pitch,
00:45 it paints a picture as to Arsenal's off-the-ball shape.
00:48 There was five tackles made in their defensive third, nine in the middle of the park,
00:52 and then six in Manchester City's own attacking third, which meant that they were pressing very high
00:58 and trying to suffocate City when they had the ball in their back line.
01:01 So, how did they do this?
01:03 On the ball in this game, City kind of employed a 2-3-5 formation, you could say,
01:07 with Kyle Walker and Josco Gvardial really, really hugging the width and pushing up as far as they possibly could when in possession of the ball.
01:15 And to counteract that, Arsenal kind of shaped up in a narrow 4-4-2 formation, you might say,
01:19 hugging the middle of the pitch and tucking those wingers, Martinelli and Sakharov wide, inside
01:24 to suffocate the middle of the park and force City to utilise these wide positions.
01:29 And the primary reason that Arsenal deployed this system was to try and nullify Manchester City in the middle of the park
01:34 and when their eights received the ball in those kind of pockets of space the likes of Phil Foden in this game,
01:38 but also, at the Etihad, of course, it will be Kevin De Bruyne too this time.
01:42 And what actually worked really well for Arsenal in this game was a very high-risk, high-reward individual strategy
01:47 where any time Phil Foden would pick up the ball, for instance, in that pocket of space in the eight,
01:52 Ben White would come out from the right-back position and try and nick the ball off him from behind him
01:56 as quickly as possible for that turnover of possession.
01:58 So they did not... The primary target for Arsenal in this game was to not let City's number eights have any breathing time on the ball,
02:06 any time to turn, any time to pick at or pass.
02:08 They're going to have to do that again at the Etihad, especially now Kevin De Bruyne is fit.
02:11 Of course, he wasn't in this game at the Emirates.
02:14 They're going to have to do this again, otherwise City will just kill them.
02:17 Of course, though, this does come with a trade-off, and that trade-off will be City having a bit of an advantage and a bit more space on those wide positions.
02:24 This likely means that you'll see Rodri from the sixth position pinging those balls over to the likes of Jack Grealish on the left-hand side,
02:30 and probably Kyle Walker, who will be pushed up, hugging the width on the right.
02:33 "He-he-he-he-he, this sucks, man."
02:35 So, if Arsenal successfully pack the middle of the park, this will likely force Rodri to spread those balls out to
02:44 Kyle Walker on the right, stroke Bernardo Silva, and then Jack Grealish, now he's fit, probably, on the left-hand side,
02:50 which then in return should force City to have to play quite direct to Erling Haaland,
02:55 which, against most teams, will sound like a terrifying prospect.
02:58 But, when you've got Gabriel and Saliba, it's a battle that you could come out on top of.
03:03 These two are, without a doubt, the best centre-back pairing in the league this season, that have consistently played alongside each other.
03:09 The stats are there to back it, of course. They've conceded the least goals in the league.
03:12 But these are these two, head-to-head against each other, and the stats are so similar, really.
03:17 The aerial duels won there, there's only eight in it.
03:19 And there's only 0.15% of a difference in terms of the aerial duel success.
03:24 The only real stats with any disparity are the ground duels won and the blocks, of which Gabriel has more.
03:29 And this could maybe paint the picture that Saliba is a bit more of a Rolls Royce, a bit more kind of Van Dijk-esque,
03:34 where he sort of has the pace to be able to stand off and keep a striker at arm's length, really,
03:38 and not have to commit as much as Gabriel.
03:40 But they're both phenomenal centre-backs and they complement each other so well.
03:43 But it's really that aerial duels won stat there that means that they will be able to have a bloody good go at pocketing Mr. Erling Haaland.
03:52 And Gabriel and Saliba, I think, are the real reason that Arsenal have reason to be confident in this game of not losing it, at least,
03:58 because these are their defensive stats this season as a collective Arsenal.
04:02 24 goals conceded, which is the best in the league.
04:05 11 clean sheets, which is also the best in the league.
04:08 And their xG against is just 0.71, which is actually the best in the league out of any team as well.
04:13 So they're basically just first for every stat and it's because of them with a little bit of Declan Rice, of course, sprinkled in as well.
04:19 But Saliba and Gabriel have been so good this season that really it's time now to step up to the plate and stop Manchester City,
04:26 which, you know, Chelsea have done, Tottenham have done, Crystal Palace have done at the Etihad.
04:29 It is doable for Arsenal, absolutely.
04:32 So how are Arsenal going to get the ball in the onion bag, so to speak?
04:35 Well, as a Manchester City fan, the answer is probably not Gabriel Jesus.
04:39 I watched that man for five years and he can't finish.
04:42 I'm sorry. I'm not going to do any analysis.
04:44 The guy can't finish. So forget him.
04:46 Honestly, the timing of Gabriel Jesus' runs at Manchester City were that off the pace that he was receiving through balls from Steven Ireland.
04:54 Now, I can't believe I'm actually about to say this, but if you look at the background here,
04:58 there should be a sign around here that says Adam loves Havertz, right?
05:03 And some background behind that, basically one of my lovely colleagues, Mr.
05:07 Mark White, is an Arsenal fan and we and him have been having a bit of back and forth for a few months now about how good a footballer Kai Havertz is.
05:15 And he said at times, yeah, I think he gives something to Arsenal, but I'm not sure what it is.
05:21 And then I kind of went, well, I don't think he gives anything to Arsenal.
05:25 I think he's rubbish. But then eventually I was kind of proved wrong because the stats show
05:30 and what I've seen with my eyes in the last few weeks shows that he is actually giving quite a lot to Arsenal.
05:36 So I think the answer to goals could be Mr. Kai Havertz.
05:39 Good point. Yeah. First sensible thing you've said all day. Yeah.
05:44 And of course, as we know, he's kind of not in a like for like way, but he's replaced Granit Xhaka in this Arsenal side.
05:49 Granit Xhaka was, of course, a bit more of a box to box midfielder,
05:52 but Kai Havertz really is a bit more of a late arriver into the box and a bit of a creative link man.
05:56 You could maybe liken him to more of a number eight, maybe.
05:59 But when compared to Martin Oerdegaard here, of course, Martin Oerdegaard is in the blue.
06:04 You can see that they both kind of provide similar things to Arsenal.
06:07 They're both creative players. They both pull strings.
06:09 But if you actually look at the stats that Havertz is winning on,
06:12 you've got his expected goals per 90, his goals per 90 and his shots per 90,
06:17 which is only a marginal win, but still nonetheless.
06:20 And then most interestingly for me as well, he's actually winning on XG chain per 90,
06:24 which is the total XG of every possession the players involved in per 90 minutes,
06:29 which basically means that when Havertz has had the ball, Arsenal scored slightly more goals.
06:33 So yeah, it's very, very hard to have an agenda against this guy anymore,
06:37 or criticise him, not that I ever did, just didn't think he was very good
06:40 and I've been made to look like an idiot.
06:42 So yeah, Havertz needs to be ready when Arsenal get the ball in these wide positions
06:46 to make that late run, ghosting behind Rodri, find that pocket of space in the box
06:50 and hope that the delivery is good enough for Havertz to convert.
06:53 And I think that is the way that Arsenal are most likely to find the back of the net in transition
06:57 when they do, hopefully with that Pat 442 that I suggested, win the ball in the middle of the park.
07:02 Anyway, as you well know, on the Friday Show, when I talk about another team,
07:06 it's not just minutes of me rambling, we like to hear from someone else
07:09 who could be a potential expert on a certain side or just football in general as well.
07:13 And this week, it's someone who's an expert on football in general.
07:17 It's a good friend of mine, a man called Omir, who you may well know from Twitter.
07:21 He is an analyst and just generally someone with very good ball knowledge
07:25 to the point where he can retweet an old tweet from three years ago that everyone laughed at him for
07:29 and he's now been proven right. He's that kind of guy.
07:32 So nonetheless, take it away Omir.
07:34 You know, I think Arsenal's, well, Arsenal's out of possession players are interesting
07:39 because one, like City, they have the ball most of the game.
07:42 So in terms of like true out of possession, sitting deep, it's a very rare thing
07:48 that Arsenal have had to do this season.
07:51 I think what we can look to really that is really impressive from Arsenal this season is
07:55 how they've suffocated size and counter-pressed them in a way that sort of uses the players off the ball
08:04 in a really aggressive manner. So what we've seen in past seasons from City in a similar manner is
08:11 we've had like a really good press in front three and like that press has been backed up by a really energetic
08:17 Aids, De Bruyne, for example, and then you have like a front three of Bernardo Silva,
08:21 let's say Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, players of that ilk who are really sort of aggressive and front-footed.
08:29 And we saw it in our big like Champions League games.
08:31 If you think back to the games against Real Madrid, for example,
08:35 you know, a lot of our good chances and a lot of our sustained pressure would come from that
08:39 like really high pressure, really aggressive pressing and then backed up again by that midfield.
08:45 I think what Arsenal have done this season and it's a fair credit to Arteta and the board on that side is
08:51 they've brought in a team where they've kind of created this team that's really physical and able to cover grass like ridiculously well.
08:59 So you've got that massive Declan Rice move, but the way he sort of like pounces on players and covers grass,
09:07 like it's ridiculous. Like even if you bypass the initial press,
09:11 which is really impressive from sort of the likes of Odegaard, Gabriel Jesus, Saka, etc.
09:16 You've got like a really tall, hardworking duo in Havertz, if he's just playing that midfield role.
09:23 And then Rice, who Declan Rice for me is, I've said this sort of before he joined Arsenal,
09:28 he's the best defensive midfielder out of possession.
09:34 And we saw that in West Ham, you know, the way that they used to play off the ball, play deep.
09:40 And they had that success that they had last year, you know, in large part based on his ability to shuttle,
09:45 you know, horizontally and shut out attacks.
09:48 So when you're playing against Arsenal, they've got this sort of twofold, you know, defensive strength in,
09:55 one, that high pressure of the field. And then two, if they do lose it in that really compact shape,
10:01 you've got the likes of Gabriel, Havertz, Rice, Saliba, etc.
10:07 The likes of those players who are really tall, really physical and able to shut out space
10:12 and minimise the gaps as much as possible.
10:14 So for City, you'll be trying to find little areas where you can almost get Arsenal out of position
10:21 and capitalise on like 1v1s, for example, because otherwise, Arsenal are a team that will catch up to you out of possession
10:28 and try and suffocate you when they have the ball via their sort of defensive shape.
10:32 Well, having said that, then going on to the goal threat, let's say Arsenal do transition.
10:36 They hit City on the break. Where's their goal threat going to come from?
10:39 Because in the video that I've talked about, I have said it's going to come from Kai Havertz.
10:42 The stats have shown it recently.
10:44 How could it be someone else or how do Arsenal best utilise Kai Havertz in a game like this?
10:50 I think one of the reasons why they would have brought Kai Havertz in in the first place is the fact that
10:55 they've basically had a team that's really good at sort of playing short and keeping the ball
11:01 and sustaining pressure against most of, let's say, the bottom 15 teams in the league.
11:08 Against the top teams who have the ability to kind of keep the ball against you and pen you in a little bit.
11:15 We've seen it from City as well. The ability to go and not hoof it up, but almost play with a conscious mind,
11:25 but with the ability to go long and find your strikers.
11:28 So Havertz is a player who, unfortunately, I hate to bring it up, but the Champions League final,
11:33 when he obviously scored against us for Chelsea, but the way he attacked on the break there,
11:40 you know, really impressive. And in the big games,
11:45 although he's a player who's got his own sort of criticism and stick in the past,
11:48 he's able to step up and with his profile, I think he's someone who,
11:54 with injuries permitting, if they can field someone in midfield instead of him,
11:58 they'll probably play him up top in a game against Manchester City and decide to go long off him.
12:04 We've seen Odegaard almost play a little bit deeper now,
12:09 but we might see Odegaard almost play a little bit off Havertz up top.
12:15 And then whoever the left winger is, hearing reports that Martinelli might be out.
12:20 If it's Gabriel Jesus, shot on that side, running in and off him.
12:24 So Havertz is sort of the outballer.
12:25 He's sort of the biggest threat, particularly with some of City's defensive injuries.
12:31 If you play long to him, he holds it up and he releases someone else.
12:34 And then you've got Saku who's decent in transition, Odegaard can run off him.
12:38 And then if Gabriel Jesus plays, that rotation between Havertz and Jesus is going to be something
12:43 that City will have to keep an eye on, particularly with their midfield sometimes being stretched,
12:48 with Rodri kind of having this box-to-box role,
12:50 but without that kind of Gundogan figure to cover in at parts of the season.
12:55 If I'm going to give you a prediction, I would go...
13:00 I'll go to... we're going to concede. I'll go 2-1.
13:05 2-1, 2-1. Well, look, Arsenal fans, you're all watching this video, of course,
13:09 and this is an Arsenal prop video.
13:11 So I will obviously say 2-1 Arsenal.
13:15 So anyway, thank you very much, Amir, for joining us.
13:17 That was some fantastic insight. And yeah, we'll see what the result is on the weekend.
13:22 Thank you very much, Amir. Now, I've just realised that I've actually recorded this the day before I've spoke to Amir.
13:28 So I have no idea what you even said, mate.
13:31 I should probably do this the other way round next week.
13:34 Anyway, guys, yes, I hope you enjoyed the video. Arsenal City, bloody difficult one to call,
13:40 but by next week, we might have a clearer picture of where the title race lies.
13:44 Don't forget to subscribe, guys. Have a lovely long weekend as well this time round, with the bank holidays as well.
13:50 Enjoy the football. I've been Adam Monk. Take care. I'll see you very, very soon. Goodbye.