Our latest Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast episode talks about Jayden Daniels, what a team’s NFL Draft history says about them, and plenty more.
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00:00Welcome back everybody. I am your Las Vegas Raiders beat writer for Sports
00:06Illustrated and the host of the Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast, Hondo
00:09Carpenter. Joined each week by my buddy Johnny Guitars and you guys have asked
00:14and so he gives it every week. Let's open with a riff, Johnny.
00:19All right, now we're ready. All right, now we're ready. John, we got a lot to talk
00:31about. I'm sure you saw the podcast where we literally went down the list of
00:37teams and how they draft and how many have had top ten picks in the last ten
00:43years and there's a consistent pattern. The teams that have the most top ten
00:48picks are the teams that usually end up not doing well. I mean, we've talked about
00:53it all offseason, but somebody actually suggested to me, an NFL executive, he
00:59said, I think you should do it on your pod. Just go over ten years of research.
01:04He goes, let the numbers tell the truth. When you saw that and how bad the teams
01:09are that consistently draft in the top ten, it told the story of the
01:13value of the first round draft pick, didn't it? I think it did because it's
01:18become, it's not impossible to survive missing on a first round pick, but it
01:24seems like if you miss or have trouble with more than one within a certain year
01:31span, maybe a three-year span, you're gonna have a real problem and set your
01:36franchise back unless there's some exception that comes kind of out of
01:39nowhere to make up for it. It's not that Jalen Hurts is an exception, but the
01:45best example I can think of is the Eagles go down the wrong road with
01:50Carson Wentz and then they get somebody to replace him and it's like they didn't
01:54miss a beat. That so rarely happens. There is a pattern. Some of those teams and
01:59some of those owners, to borrow off of what Bill Pollian said, they're probably
02:03the reason that some of those struggles continue to happen. Yeah, and you know,
02:09John, so for example, on Wednesday's podcast, I talked about, you know, one miss, it
02:16maybe wobbles you a little bit like a boxer that takes a punch, but it doesn't
02:20knock you out. Two misses in a row, set your franchise back. Three, you're gonna
02:26be in rebuilding mode. I thought that was fascinating to hear that from an NFL
02:31executive. It's really kind of a fast track. It's kind of a fast track in the
02:37wrong direction. And when I saw that, you know, I was reminded of NFL coaches
02:43with a high level of success that left the sport and then came back and really
02:47struggled with some drafts. Joe Gibbs, for example, moves way up and takes Jason
02:53Campbell. Don't know that he was ever really an NFL starter. It was kind of a
02:57reach. It was a problem. Obviously, John Gruden with the Raiders didn't draft
03:01terribly well. So when I see somebody either coming back to the sport or
03:08maybe coming up, if we see another guy come up from the college level anytime
03:12soon, that's gonna be in my mind. And if I were one of those teams or one of
03:17those franchises, I really believe in managing the downside, especially in the
03:23high rounds. Hondo and I have talked about this for years. I err on the side
03:27of give me the lineman. I err on the side of give me the guy that's least likely
03:31to miss because the damage in the pain of missing or let's say you're just
03:36grabbing wide receivers at the top of the draft a couple times in a row.
03:40Lion fans can remember 20 years ago. Boy, you're on a fast track to picking
03:46again in the top 10 very soon.
03:50Yeah. And you know, one general manager told me something that I think you'll
03:53find interesting. The problem with constantly picking in the top 10 is
03:59that if a couple of those guys hits hit now you have major extensions that
04:07forces your team into some calorie salary cap struggles because just the
04:11way it works. So you want to stay out of the top 10 and hope those guys hit
04:17because those extensions aren't as big. Um, john, let's get right to it. We got
04:22so many topics to cover that are absolutely germane to the National
04:27Football League, which is what we do each week. I cover the Raiders, you
04:31know, micro Lee, you cover the NFL macro Lee. So we really get a good
04:36view. But john Harbaugh says, uh, you know, don't worry about the hip drop
04:42tackle. He's the first coach to come out and really talk about this. What
04:46did you think of his comment? I thought it's pretty big. You know, the basic
04:50just the really the core of it is he's saying, Hey, you got a three part play.
04:57So he's defining that hip drop is three parts. And he's saying you gotta be
05:00close enough. You gotta get him around the hips. You gotta pull him close. You
05:03gotta swing your hips through and drop the back of his legs. But here's the
05:06key that everybody needs to take away from from the top of football to the
05:12very bottom. We talk about fundamentals. He points right to maybe the best. This
05:17is john Harbaugh saying if you're that close, wrap him up, tackle him and take
05:22him to the ground like Ray Lewis used to do. And everybody did for 100 years
05:27before that. So john Harbaugh saying this is not that big of a deal. Let's
05:31not freak out about it. And oh, by the way, maybe just do some fundamental
05:35tackling because year in year out over the history of the sport, that's what's
05:40been safest and best for the game. I'm not trying to pat john Harbaugh on the
05:44back again. I did that before his team came up short in the playoffs. But Ray
05:49Lewis tackling is one of the few guys that I've got a picture of in my head
05:54that's never gonna go away. It's kind of a textbook just runs on a loop when
05:58you think of how do I tackle as a linebacker? It's a pretty good place to
06:01start.
06:02You know, I got a text from an executive today who told me he thought
06:07john was doing something brilliant. He was sending a message to the NFL and
06:12the officials. All right, it's three parts. So there better be three parts
06:18before you threw the flag. He goes, I thought john was getting out ahead of
06:23saying, all right, you better make sure there are three parts because we're
06:27talking about it in the offseason. That's what we think it is. I thought
06:31that was an interesting angle. Your thoughts on that? That's the first
06:34thing I thought when I read it said this guy's breaking it down to three
06:38parts. It's almost like a warning shot saying this. You guys have laid this
06:43out. You better stick to this and not make it much of a judgment call or not
06:47make it loosey goosey or inconsistent. These guys and I'm talking about both
06:52of these guys, both Harbaugh's as much as we love football, as much as you
06:56love football out there, there's no way they love it any less. This is a
07:00football mind. Whenever it's to football, it's going at a super fast
07:04speed. John Harbaugh's. It's very hard to find something he's wrong about. I
07:09think he's right here and I do think he did this with intent. Not a bad idea,
07:13especially in april. Let's talk about Parcells draft bible highlights. Folks,
07:19we talked about this before the 33rd team went ahead and got to the source,
07:23got some of the history, the background for Bill Parcells drafting system. He
07:27talks about how it came out of his first trip to New England and really the key
07:33to it is we've got to identify who's doing these jobs on the field and come
07:38up with some prototypes and then we've got to find a grading system against
07:42the prototype. We're going to make some room for exceptions and categorize
07:46exceptions. But exceptions are rare. He used to fantastic exceptions when it
07:52comes to height. Barry Sanders, Daryl Green, two phenomenal players. But he
07:57lays out a couple of things and ties them all together. One of the highlights
08:02is no doubt the advice he gets from Al Davis talking about avoiding a dog
08:09pound. Now, what is a dog pound? Well, a dog pound would happen if you end up
08:14getting a mix of players that is not going to not gonna lead you to much
08:22success. One of these, one of those, one of those, one of these. And if you end
08:27up with a dog pound, basically, he says you're gonna end up, you're gonna end
08:31up losing, you're gonna end up out of a job and you're not gonna have a very
08:33put together roster. There's an interesting piece also here. Um, I'll
08:39just read out Davis's quote. This is what he said to Parcells. Your team
08:44looks like a dog pound. One of these, one of those big ones, little ones,
08:47ones that bite ones that don't. That's what you wanted to avoid. And he said,
08:52if you don't have a prototypical personnel like what we're looking for
08:56out of each position on the field, you're gonna end up in that place.
09:00Another idea is if you take too many exceptions, you're also on the way to
09:05ending up with the dog pound. Whole bunch of different. That is some of the
09:08stuff that is interesting about this. The specific height and weight stuff. I
09:13don't know how dated it is. It's got to be a little dated because Parcells is
09:16not active right now. But the point is they had a system and they weren't just
09:20going in picking the best player available or taking some wild card
09:24reach that we've seen some owners do. And they also ended up with a shorter
09:27draft board. That was the interesting thing to me. They didn't have 250 guys
09:32on their draft board and it didn't really hurt him. He said there was a
09:37year that they ran out. Basically, they were down to three. And one of those
09:41guys was a rookie free agent quarterback. They signed by the name
09:45of Tony Romo. And whether you think he was a good quarterback or not, he's got
09:49a lot of stats in the NFL and for an undrafted free agent, it did pretty
09:53well. And he was scouted pretty well by that Bill Parcells system.
09:57Interesting. All right, john, what about a smear campaign? Did an
10:01offensive coordinator essentially throw a game to interview?
10:08This was a piece of news around the NFL that I hope is not over because you
10:14want to talk about an extraordinary accusation or premise laid out there.
10:21LaDainian Tomlinson is saying that the Chargers were up double digits on the
10:26papers in the divisional round 0607 double digits on who? The Patriots.
10:32That's what he's saying. And so they're up in a playoff round. And he was
10:37wondering if Cam Cameron, who played at Michigan, coached at Indiana around the
10:42NFL for a long time,
10:45got a coaching job, the head coaching job at the Dolphins. He was wondering
10:48if Cam Cameron just started chucking the ball so he could get to an interview.
10:54Um, this is an incredible premise, and it's an incredible thing to even lay
10:59out or make any kind of accusation of. It's beyond
11:04any reasonable doubt. The answer would be no. I don't have any question that
11:07Cam Cameron at this time, no question at all that he would be doing what he
11:11could to try to score as many points, put the then Chargers in position to
11:15win. It's insane to think it's got a lot of people's attention. This is a
11:20massive accusation from an absolute Hall of Fame player. Cam Cameron, not a
11:24Hall of Fame coach. But this is a not a good scene, and I want to see what
11:30Cameron has to say in response. This is beyond out of left field. This is
11:34really, really, really somewhat unprecedented to bring this out in
11:38public. L. T. Man, the gift that keeps on giving. Let's talk about Viva
11:44Brazil
11:46about 4750 miles from Philadelphia. About 12 hours by point. Yeah, I'm
11:58sure it is. But so here's the thing. Opening Friday night, we have Packers.
12:03We have eagles. Nobody's really a home team there. Nobody's traveling short.
12:09You know, 12 to 14 hour plane flights. 4700 miles. It's gonna be a lot of
12:14people walking around up and down the plane. You talk about a lot of changes
12:17that happen in the plane relative to salt levels, sodium levels, hydration.
12:22This is not a simple task that these teams are gonna be asked to do. And my
12:26first thought was like so many. What about the time zones? It actually turns
12:30out to be two hours ahead of Eastern. So time zone wise, neither the Eagles nor
12:34the Packers are getting beat up too much. But this is a literally like
12:38traveling. If you're Philly to play a game in Denver, but it's the opposite
12:42way. Two hours the other way. Yeah, I mean, time zone wise. But this is such
12:47a long flight. We're talking about 12 plus hours in the air for very large
12:51guys. I hope they give them enough time on both ends of the trip. Is this a
12:56good idea? I mean, it's gonna be an oddball in a soccer driven country that
13:02is beyond belief into soccer. How many people are really gonna care about
13:07this? I don't know. I know this. In the past, we've seen some trips like this
13:12throw seasons and teams off different kind of sports. The NFL has got to be
13:17fair here to the Packers and the Eagles, both teams with aspirations to make a
13:21Super Bowl next year. But that's what it's gonna be. It's gonna be a peacock
13:25exclusive, and I know a couple folks out there will be watching it just like we
13:30and the peacock ratings. Thank God they're spending big bucks because the
13:33ratings are the only NFL ratings that are bad. John, what did you think about?
13:39Brian Kelly made a big prediction.
13:42It wasn't that long ago. We didn't talk about it right away, but now it's coming
13:46into focus because Jalen Daniels is going to Washington to meet with Dan
13:50Quinn and company there with the currently known as commanders. Big
13:54future in Washington, of course, new stadium, another new team name, fresh
13:58start, fresh owner and a really good looking head coach. But before then, a
14:02couple weeks back, Brian Kelly essentially said he slipped that said,
14:07you know, he's gonna do really well in Washington. It wasn't about three
14:11minutes after that clip was taken from. I think it was some kind of maybe a pro
14:16day or they got Kelly somewhere that I started getting messages from folks up
14:21there in the DMV area saying, You see this? Of course I didn't. It just
14:24happened. And I was like, Well, is this real? It looks like just an honest slip.
14:29Obviously, Brian Kelly's not making the pick for Washington, but he is
14:33suggesting that Daniels is the guy. Let's talk about Daniels for a second
14:38because a lot of people out there have knowledge and opinions about him.
14:41They've seen him. Obviously, Antonio Pierce talked about him and recruited
14:44him as a teenager. The concern there is a Parcells based concern, I think,
14:49having to do with durability and size. How much muscle and weight can this guy
14:54add to his frame? Because we've seen some longer, leaner guys be really not
15:00the greatest durability record at the NFL level. He's an exciting player to
15:06me. I think he's got as much upside as anybody in the draft. I'm not as
15:10concerned about the durability. But again, we talked a little about this
15:15last week. Teams have got to do some research here to legitimately project
15:20how much they can add to the frame of Jaden Daniels to make sure that he's
15:25not going to be a durability concern. It's gonna be an interesting week, and
15:29he's there in Washington. I wonder if you will talk to Coach Kelly before
15:32leaving town.
15:35We shall see. All right, let's talk about the UFL is tampering with Bigfoot.
15:40And by the way, I am loving this spring football, and the ratings are killing
15:46it, which is what you and I've been saying for 10 years. If they would just
15:50come together, have one league, have the NFL endorse it. I'm loving it,
15:54Johnny. This is good stuff. I love it. Let's recap the boat here. What I was
16:00looking for was a league that would start the week after the Masters. It
16:03does not yet start the week after the Masters and end somewhere around July
16:074th, depending on how many games they played. We're not quite there, but
16:11we've got one league together, and there are some people watching it.
16:14There's some names that are becoming more familiar. This is year two. I think
16:18it's gonna take four years to kick into high gear. But talk about kicking. Did
16:23you see that guy in Michigan kicking them? I was like, Whoa, well, he kicked
16:28a couple of massive bombs and people noticed in the NFL and Mike Nolan, who's
16:33got an extraordinarily long NFL history and an extraordinary family lineage. He
16:38says NFL teams are already contacting this guy saying, Hey, stay away from my
16:44guy. He's kicking for the Panthers. This is a remarkable foot. Now you're
16:49kicking inside. Jake Bates is the guy name. He's kicking inside, but 64 is the
16:55one I saw alive, and I was like, Hello, 52 62 yards. This is a name that we will
17:01see on an NFL roster this fall. It's nice to see this. I like the different
17:07mix. I like the three point conversion that they've got. You know, maybe you
17:11could see that. Maybe you could see that sprinkled into the NFL one day is
17:16like a one game use option, kind of like throwing a challenge flag like, Hey,
17:19we're going for three here. I don't know, but I like seeing this is a
17:22testing ground proving ground. I like seeing players develop, and I still love
17:27the foot in football. I'm okay with a big kick. The guy hit it from 64 yards.
17:32It was like, Hello, we knew that would get somebody's attention. I'm gonna ask
17:37you a question. Would you like to see like there's a three pointer in
17:43football? Would you like to see where you can do a kick for to kick for three?
17:49A kick for four
17:53Johnny Guitars? Think about it. Well, that's that appears to be the way that
17:59the game is going. Um, I would like to see.
18:04I think I would like to see the goalposts adjusted in at least one of
18:09two ways. Either like Belichick says, take him up higher, whether that's a
18:13light beam or whether that's an extension. And I do think there's an
18:17argument to be made to bring them in a little bit. Um, I like the idea that a
18:24field goal is always three. I'm fine. I'm probably fine there. But what
18:27you're talking about is, is it maybe possible to go back really far and
18:32extend it? That would be an interesting idea. I don't tell you where I'm
18:38going with this. Okay, so I was visiting with a coach at the, um, league
18:42meetings, and I was just saying to him, If you could change rules, what would
18:45you change? He said, Well, I would like to see a kick. 25 yards or in is worth
18:51one point. 25 to 35 is worth 235. He said from the 35 yard line to the half
19:04to the 50 yard line, he goes, Maybe three. He goes, But anything where you
19:11hike the ball from in your territory. So if you're at your 49 and the ball
19:17goes back seven, you're not, you know, you're you're now 68 yards away. He
19:23goes, I'd like to see that worth four. He goes, Now, here's where the intrigue
19:27comes in. He said, If you're down two points or your mid say you're down
19:33three and you got a big kicker, do you take a kick at your 49? He goes, Or do
19:40you try to go down with seconds left? I mean, I just love the way he talked
19:45about. I know it's farfetched, but I think it's something worth interesting
19:48because he says his foots get bigger. He goes, Let's make let's make a reward
19:53for that. Well, we're talking about something that has a natural proven
19:58ground idea fit. This is something prime for the U. F. L. Who knows? Maybe
20:01it's something they're already thinking of. I think there's some innovation
20:05that can take place. Uh, this is an NFL show. I think the NFL has done well
20:10moving the extra point back to where they did. I think there's probably a
20:14little bit of an argument that you could scoot it up, but I actually like
20:16where it is because it matters. Now, at the college level, they need to back
20:21that thing up 10 yards. They need to take their point after and back it up
20:2510 yards. It's ridiculous to be that close. So the idea that the kicking
20:30game is going to evolve or should evolve, I think is good. Guys are just
20:34unbelievably good. Now they're trained. They're giant. As you said, they can
20:38kick it from farther and farther. So the argument to be made to stagger the
20:43value of the kick based on where the ball is spotted. That seems logical and
20:47seems like something that's gonna be coming along the way. I would like to
20:52just plain. I know he's traveling around doing some camp work. Uh, Bill
20:57Belichick lately at Washington at Nebraska. I'd like him to make some
21:02notes and maybe saving does the same thing about ideas they think could
21:06could improve these games. We know he has talked about extending the posts up
21:11so you can make a field goal call easier. I'd be curious if he thinks
21:15they need to stay the same or need to come in at the pro level. And I'd also
21:18be curious if he would be interested in this kind of thing. The reason I say
21:22that is people think of Bill Belichick is like really stoic and maybe has the
21:28image sometimes of teaching the way that the game was played back when they
21:32were using stone and tablet. That's not necessarily the case. He might surprise
21:36us with this because the kicking game has evolved. Those kickers that were
21:41kicking for the Giants way back when he was defensive coordinator, where they
21:45were kicking from all that stuff. Very different. Very, very different than
21:49today. Also different hondo. And what I would be curious your initial thought
21:52of is would you be giving way too much of an advantage to teams that play half
21:58their games inside of dome because not everybody does. Great thought. I see.
22:03This is what I love.
22:05This game is beautiful and it can be tweaked without taking the game away,
22:12but keep tweaking it. I love it's like in hockey. I've heard a lot of people
22:16say they'd like to see the NHL make the goal a little bit bigger.
22:19I mean, even if it's three inches in every direction, I'm not. I know I like
22:25walking and I'm a purist, so I'm like, I don't like it.
22:29But I'll tell you, I've had some some hockey players, friends of mine
22:34who played in the NHL tell me
22:38I think it would just make the game even better. So I love that. I love it.
22:42When you start talking about stuff that can make the game better. I want to see
22:46some things in the future. We're going to talk about something. So, for
22:49example, I had an NFL Hall of Famer tell me he thinks there shouldn't be the 10
22:55yard rule for defensive backs where you can put your hand on the player. He
22:59said, let's go back to the 70s. Then there's constant interaction. He thinks
23:03it's safer. He literally thinks it's safer. He thinks it makes the game
23:08better. I don't think they'll ever do it, but I mean, he talked about if it's
23:13about player safety, then let him stay engaged. He goes, because if that safety
23:18is coming up to make a big hit and there's a corner there, he's got to
23:23worry about his teammate too. I just, I love all that. I love all the
23:26conjecture. Now next week, John, we're doing our mock draft. So you're going to
23:31give me all seven rounds for who you think the Raiders, you'd like to see him
23:35pick. It's going to be a lot of fun. We're looking forward to it. He is the
23:39one and only the legend, the great Johnny guitars. Johnny, tell him how to
23:44find you on X at J P Spartan. I hope you like the masters too. If you tune in
23:49this week on there, I can't wait. I'm not even a golfer, but I've been
23:54watching this show full swing. Have you watched it on Netflix? I have watched
23:58it. They've got some good behind the scenes master stuff. And those, those
24:02shows are pretty good. It's very similar to the quarterback show, although not
24:06as, um, as NFL films produced, it's not as good. It's not a knock on full swing.
24:12It's just NFL films is
24:14the best. So they got just getting started, but it is relatively
24:19entertaining. Um, it's a different idea and it's interesting. The masters has
24:25continued to evolve. They've evolved the course, they've evolved things they do
24:28around there, and that's why they are arguably the most organized sporting
24:32event in the world. In the world, everybody, including the NFL, take a
24:38good lesson in sticking with that and making smart decisions to make their
24:43game better. We're starting to see that drip from the NFL a little bit.
24:46Some of the stuff we talked about today and some of the stuff we'll talk about
24:50in the offseason here, hopefully will make the NFL product clearly better in
24:552024 than it was in 2023. And yes, folks, I'm thinking officials as well.
25:02All right, everybody, follow me on I G at Hondo S. R. X. Formerly known as
25:06Twitter at Hondo Carpenter and go to s I dot com forward slash NFL forward
25:11slash Raiders.