八点最热报 | 经济部长拉菲兹今天在接受国际媒体彭博社专访时强调，政府这次一定会坚持到底，今年内铁定削减汽油津贴。然而，政府有计算过削减汽油津贴所引发通货膨胀的后挫力有多大吗？燃油是物流的重要成本，汽油津贴一减，物价像火箭升空般的连锁反应，老百姓是否吃得消呢？（主播：梁宝怡）
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00:00 Before watching the video, I remind you that there is more content on the Hotpot website.
00:04 The price of gasoline in China has been under the long-term pressure of the government.
00:09 Some people describe it as cheaper than the oil price in Saudi Arabia,
00:13 and even cheaper than some famous brands of mineral water.
00:17 The other governments have said that they will cut off the gasoline subsidies,
00:20 but they are worried that it will cause political rebound.
00:23 In the end, they only dare to say and dare not do.
00:27 After the Anhui-led government came to power,
00:30 it repeatedly announced that it would cut off a basket of gasoline subsidies,
00:33 and changed it to targeted subsidies.
00:35 Lafayette, the Minister of Economy,
00:37 emphasized more in an international media interview today.
00:40 The government will stick to the end this time.
00:44 Gasoline subsidies will be cut off this year.
00:47 Has the government ever calculated how much the negative impact of cutting gasoline subsidies
00:51 will cause on the inflation?
00:54 Fuel is an important cost of logistics.
00:57 If gasoline subsidies are cut,
00:59 will the people be able to afford the chain reaction of the price like a rocket taking off into the sky?
01:04 If the government turns around and does not cut the subsidies,
01:07 how long can the country's finance last?
01:10 According to a report by Bloomberg,
01:12 Lafayette, the Minister of Economy, said that the government will stick to the end.
01:15 It is determined that gasoline subsidies will be cut gradually this year
01:19 to reduce the country's fiscal deficit.
01:21 Because the government wants to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.3% by 2024,
01:26 it must stick to the time schedule.
01:30 Before considering cutting subsidies,
01:33 inflation may increase.
01:35 So the government must manage the order of cutting subsidies,
01:38 and provide targeted subsidies to the truly needful groups.
01:42 Lafayette said that the government understands that once gasoline subsidies are cut,
01:46 there will be dissatisfaction and rebound.
01:49 But the government cannot afford to be worried about the situation after the cut.
01:54 When the Finance Director of the Asia-Pacific Financial Center,
01:57 Cai Zhaoyuan, received the interview of the 8.4 Daily,
02:00 he said that the total amount of gasoline subsidies in China in 2023 is about 8.1 billion.
02:05 But only gasoline subsidies accounted for more than 400 billion.
02:09 It means that more than half of China's subsidies are spent on gasoline subsidies.
02:14 This is a very large number.
02:17 Moreover, China's national debt has reached 1.5 trillion yuan,
02:20 and has experienced a 27-year fiscal deficit.
02:25 The country's income is not enough to pay for expenses.
02:28 But the government still has to spend so much money every year to subsidize gasoline.
02:32 Therefore, restructuring gasoline subsidies and cutting subsidies
02:35 are definitely a very important part of the country's financial reform.
02:39 Professor Zhong Zhiqiang, professor of Economics at the University of Romania,
02:42 described that gasoline subsidies are like the cancer of the country's economy.
02:46 The country has to treat it.
02:48 In the course of treatment, the economic cycle of each industry is certainly painful.
02:52 But if the country does not treat it,
02:54 the country has to borrow money to pay for gasoline subsidies every year.
02:58 Sooner or later, the country will go bankrupt.
03:01 As the Prime Minister said,
03:04 our gasoline prices are even cheaper than Saudi Arabia's.
03:08 Everyone knows that Saudi Arabia is a large oil-producing country.
03:13 Our gasoline is even cheaper than it.
03:15 So we spend a lot of money on gasoline subsidies.
03:20 Compared with the East Asian countries, China, India, or South Korea and Japan,
03:25 our gasoline is really cheap.
03:28 I would say around 95 cents.
03:29 Compared with these countries, we are really cheap.
03:32 It's about 2.05 cents.
03:34 Compared with some well-known mineral springs,
03:37 our gasoline prices are still quite cheap.
03:39 Under the government's large-scale gasoline subsidies,
03:41 the price of gasoline in China is cheaper than in Saudi Arabia.
03:46 The price is even lower than that of some well-known mineral springs.
03:50 However, after so many years,
03:52 the people have become used to the government's cheap gasoline subsidies.
03:55 The government is now determined to reduce gasoline subsidies this year.
04:00 Will the people be able to withstand the chain effects and inflation pressure generated by the subsidies?
04:06 When we think of the war in the past,
04:09 the government was very angry and unbearable.
04:11 When the government gave the subsidies,
04:14 the main goal was to lower the standard of living of the people,
04:17 and encourage some enterprises to increase their investment and production.
04:21 Let me give you an example.
04:22 If the government completely reduces the gasoline subsidies,
04:24 it will definitely have a negative impact on the entire enterprise, the people, and the economy.
04:31 The people will be very sad.
04:33 Because suddenly, people are enjoying the government's subsidies.
04:37 When there is a price, we drive around to consume gasoline.
04:40 Suddenly, the price has decreased.
04:42 No more.
04:43 So for the people, it's like putting on a price increase.
04:45 Of course, we also know that if we reduce the gasoline subsidies and the gasoline subsidies,
04:51 it will definitely have a chain effect.
04:53 Because many commercial enterprises,
04:56 such as logistics, transportation,
04:59 they currently own the subsidies.
05:02 Don't forget that the Ministry of Trade and Industry is already thinking about
05:06 how to continue to provide their subsidies in the transportation industry.
05:11 The data issued by the National Bank of China shows that
05:14 if our subsidies are restructured,
05:17 how high will the inflation of our country go?
05:21 It is from the current 2% to 3.5%.
05:26 3.5% is already within the so-called gasoline subsidies and gasoline subsidies reduction consideration.
05:33 3.5% is higher than the average.
05:36 But everyone should know that it is actually much lower than the GST era.
05:40 The government's chain-reduced subsidies and gasoline subsidies have led to a chain-reduced setback.
05:44 Professor Zhong Zhiqiang of the Department of Economics at Lamma University believes
05:46 that it may be a large-scale impact that will cause a "fire in the sky and a flood in the land".
05:50 And the tax analyst Cai Zhaoyuan believes that
05:52 the government has been pushing for some countermeasures to reduce the killing power.
05:56 The impact may not be as serious as everyone expects.
06:00 Although the reduction of gasoline subsidies will hurt all industries,
06:04 both witnesses believe that after all these years,
06:07 if the government really has the political will and the strength to reduce gasoline subsidies,
06:12 the people should contribute to the world.
06:16 Zhong Zhiqiang even described that
06:17 every year, the $500 million gasoline subsidies are like a national economic cancer.
06:22 When the economic cancer is diagnosed,
06:25 the country will really go bankrupt.
06:27 I describe the gasoline subsidies as economic cancer.
06:33 Our government subsidies the gasoline every year for about $500 million.
06:39 It accounts for about 70% or more of the entire national subsidies.
06:44 This is absolutely unhealthy for the country.
06:47 If we don't do anything, we will continue to increase the gasoline subsidies.
06:51 The situation is that we have to increase the gasoline subsidies every year.
06:55 When our budget is increasing year by year,
07:00 we have to borrow money.
07:02 We borrow money not for investment or production purposes.
07:06 We are for the people's subsidies.
07:08 The result is like a few years ago,
07:10 take Greece as an example.
07:12 There are several countries in Europe that went bankrupt
07:14 because they gave the subsidies.
07:16 It's like the people have enjoyed it.
07:18 It's like being addicted to gasoline.
07:20 They would rather not work to get the government's business subsidies.
07:24 We used $400 million to $500 million,
07:26 but 53% of it went to P20.
07:31 In 2022, about $1.7 billion will be used on P20.
07:37 In addition, there are many problems with the stock market.
07:40 If we look back at the oil,
07:42 the oil has increased by 40% since 2019.
07:49 But our oil vehicles have increased by 3% since 2019.
07:55 The vehicle increased by 3%, but the oil subsidies increased by 40%.
08:00 Where did these subsidies go?
08:03 It must have gone abroad.
08:06 In this situation, we must regroup the oil.
08:11 Both of them agree and support the government's approach to reduce oil subsidies.
08:20 But they also emphasize that the government's approach to reduce oil subsidies
08:24 must be gradually reduced.
08:27 If the government adjusts the price of oil to the market price at once,
08:31 the impact will be great.
08:34 For example, the government can increase the price of oil by 5% every month
08:40 or let the price of oil fluctuate freely when the international oil price is low.
08:46 For industries that are only affected, such as transportation,
08:50 the government may consider continuing to provide subsidies.
08:53 This can also effectively control inflation.
08:56 Thank you for watching.
08:59 For more information, visit www.fema.gov
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09:05 End
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