Could the Civil War Movie Actually Happen?
This much-anticipated film offers a glimpse into a (potentially) dark future. Welcome to WatchMojo, and today we’re discussing the Alex Garland/A24 film “Civil War.”
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00:00We're American, okay?
00:03Okay. What kind of American are you?
00:06Welcome to WatchMojo, and today we're discussing
00:08the Alex Garland A24 film Civil War.
00:11In these ever-more-divided times, could a similar series of events
00:16actually take place in the United States of America?
00:18This is a hot-button political topic, especially as 2024 is an election year,
00:24so we ask that you let us know your thoughts respectfully in the comments below.
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01:31Prior to its wide release,
01:33Civil War quickly became a smash hit with critics.
01:39In an era where the partisan divide is seemingly deeper than it has been in decades,
01:44the film examines the plight of those trapped between warring factions.
01:48Are you guys aware there's like a pretty huge civil war going on all across America?
01:52Light on exposition, Garland chooses to instead focus on the conflict midstream.
01:58Here is what we do know about the state of play in Alex Garland's dis-United States.
02:03The country is embroiled in a rapidly escalating war
02:06between the federal government and separatist factions.
02:09The White House issued warnings to the Western forces as well as the Florida alliance.
02:13Texas and California, the two most populous states in the union,
02:17have split off together to form the Western forces.
02:20Meanwhile, Florida and some neighboring states have joined the Florida alliance.
02:24The specific aims and beliefs of these groups are left deliberately ambiguous.
02:29You don't know what side they're fighting for.
02:31Someone's trying to kill us, we are trying to kill them.
02:35All we know for sure is that they are all at odds with Nick Offerman,
02:39a dictatorial president of the United States.
02:42In his third term, this president seemingly spends his days
02:45recreating the this is fine meme in nationally televised addresses.
02:49This is fine.
02:51Domestic terrorism and fear have spread everywhere.
02:54God bless America.
02:56Could this happen in real life?
02:58To answer that, we need to examine both the structures of the U.S. government
03:02and the partisan makeup of America.
03:08First, would a modern-day civil war resemble Alex Garland's apocalyptic vision?
03:13The short answer is both yes and no.
03:16Let's start with Nick Offerman's president with total power,
03:19who appears to have precipitated this deadly rift.
03:22Mr. President, do you regret the use of airstrikes against American citizens?
03:27No president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has served more than two terms.
03:31As if that wasn't enough, he won a fourth term.
03:34That is thanks to the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution,
03:37passed in 1951, officially setting a term limit on America's highest office.
03:42Overturning it legally would require either a constitutional convention
03:46or passage of a new amendment.
03:48While certainly possible, both are long, drawn-out processes
03:52requiring a level of debate and deliberation
03:55that could easily kill such an effort in its infancy.
03:58Presidential term limits are here and are unlikely to change anytime soon.
04:02That means if a would-be dictator president wanted to remain in power illegally,
04:07they'd need to resort to violence.
04:09America received its first taste of such an event on January 6th, 2021.
04:14We're going to walk down to the Capitol
04:20and we're going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women.
04:26The supporters of then-President Donald Trump attempted to disrupt
04:29the certification of the election results by storming the U.S. Capitol.
04:33The former president himself was later indicted for his alleged role in the insurrection.
04:38Notably, he had to rely on the actions of private citizens for his alleged attempted coup.
04:44The organs of government were not at his disposal at the time,
04:47though it wasn't for lack of trying.
04:49Claiming that the election had been rigged,
04:51Trump had led a campaign to overturn the results and reinstall himself as president.
04:56If you count the legal votes, I easily win.
05:01If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us.
05:08This included pressuring state and federal officials,
05:11including the Department of Justice,
05:13and filing over 60 lawsuits, almost all of which were dropped or dismissed.
05:17President Trump has exhausted all plausible legal options
05:20to challenge the results of the presidential race in Pennsylvania.
05:23Trump's call to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to, quote,
05:27find more votes has become infamous.
05:30Fortunately, illegal orders were circumvented. Institutions held fast.
05:35Even Trump allies now criticizing the president's
05:38post-election efforts to overturn the results.
05:41Those structural safeguards could easily disappear.
05:44Conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation and other allied organizations
05:48have put forth an authoritarian vision for the future called Project 2025.
05:52This time, we have a secret weapon. This time, we have Project 2025.
05:57If enacted, thousands of professionals and
06:00experts across the federal government would likely be purged.
06:04Their replacements? Loyalists who declare fealty to the new boss,
06:07potentially even over the Constitution.
06:10That's particularly scary when it comes to the Justice Department and the military.
06:14A chilling sign that loyalty is being prized above all else.
06:20With Yes Men in charge of the chain of command,
06:22who would say no to orders to jail or even shoot protesters?
06:26What if the military received those orders?
06:28As it currently stands, there are institutions and laws in place to check such impulses,
06:33such as the Posse Comitatus Act,
06:35which severely limits the use of the military on American soil.
06:39Unfortunately, there are also plans in place to spend the next four years
06:43destroying those institutions.
06:45If successful, and with enough buy-in from military commanders and prosecutors,
06:49the government could violently end the peaceful transfer of power.
06:53With half the populace in support, they could even get away with it.
06:57How dangerous is it and how close would that take us to just absolute authoritarianism?
07:01Well, I think it's highly dangerous.
07:03But unlike Alex Garland's film and the original Civil War,
07:07the geography and causes of America's current partisan divide are not so clear-cut.
07:12In 1861, a century of economic and cultural divisions over slavery
07:17cleaved the country pretty much in half geographically.
07:20On the 12th of April, 1861, hostilities began with the bombardment of Fort Sumter.
07:26It's natural for filmmakers, as a shorthand for an American audience,
07:30to describe division in those state-versus-state terms.
07:33The reality is a much more complicated tapestry.
07:36In the almost two centuries since the Civil War,
07:39American politics have evolved beyond a simple North-versus-South dichotomy.
07:44From a 10,000-foot view, yes, there is Red State America and Blue State America.
07:49The truth on the ground, however, isn't quite so simple.
07:52The political map of every city and state is more gradient than binary.
07:56Broadly speaking, cities and dense urban metropolitan areas
08:00tend to be blue and Democrat.
08:02Conversely, less dense rural areas tend to be red and Republican.
08:06The places in between are purple,
08:08often swinging between one political party and the other.
08:18Setting aside the unlikelihood of a political and military alliance
08:21between California and Texas,
08:23they serve as the best examples of this evolving trend.
08:26The Republican Party has, for decades,
08:29used the Texas government and its courts as laboratories for conservative legislation.
08:33Despite this, major metropolitan areas like Dallas, Houston,
08:37and Austin have become bluer every election.
08:40Conversely, there are millions of Republicans and conservatives in California.
08:45In point of fact, Donald Trump received more votes in California
08:49than in any other state in 2020.
08:51Trump got more votes in California than any other state in the nation.
08:56In the many decades and generations since the American Civil War,
09:00much about America has changed.
09:02The women's suffrage and civil rights movements expanded the voice of the nation.
09:06More importantly, even as the partisan divide grows deeper,
09:10Americans' interdependence on one another expands.
09:13Red, rural America is the breadbasket of the nation.
09:16Conservative America feeds both the nation and a good portion of the world.
09:21At the same time, blue cities and states are the economic engine
09:24of both the country and the planet,
09:26helping to make the United States the richest country in the history of the world,
09:31even if those riches are not dispersed equitably.
09:34States breaking away from one another isn't as practical as it was in the 1860s.
09:39There are red and blue divides within states
09:41that would cause internal conflict and strife.
09:44Our economies and supply chains rely upon one another,
09:47and disruptions would cause immediate internal divisions within any rebellious factions.
09:52It's true, the events of the 2010s and 2020s so far
09:56and the spread of misinformation online have highlighted major weaknesses in American culture.
10:02Bad actors have used modern technology and major events like the COVID pandemic
10:06to sow discord between neighbors.
10:08But ultimately, all of the people on the planet are neighbors.
10:12Our connections and reliance on one another are what give us a chance
10:15to overcome and bridge any differences we may have.
10:19More importantly, they are bonds that massively reduce the likelihood,
10:23despite the machinations of politics, of Alex Garland-esque civil war, we hope.
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10:49Click my link in the description, choose your country, and fight your way to victory.
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