It's been an up and down few weeks for Aston Villa after an unbelievable start to the season with last weekends win against title chasing Arsenal last week.
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00:00 Now the first thing I thought is I might have to re-title this video to how Aston Villa
00:06 can score at the Emirates Stadium, let alone win, because looking at the defensive stats
00:10 here and I've touched on it in previous videos, it is going to be very, very hard.
00:14 Yeah, here are the Premier League shots faced in 2024 and you can quite clearly see Arsenal
00:19 are right at the bottom by some distance here with 77 shots faced since the start of the
00:24 year. Their defence is tighter than Daniel Levy's pockets.
00:28 However, there is some good news for Villa fans going into this game because recently
00:31 the last game against Brentford, Ollie Watkins returned and scored two goals and so did John
00:36 McGinn after committing GBH against Tottenham Hotspur.
00:38 Now these were two players that were very, very important and integral to how Aston Villa
00:42 toppled Arsenal last time at Villa Park. So it's a good job they're back because they're
00:46 going to have to copy certain similar patterns of play I think if they're going to score
00:50 a goal against Arsenal and, you know, fingers crossed then hold on and win.
00:53 So just to cast all of your minds back, this was a goal that Arsenal conceded to Aston
00:57 Villa at Villa Park earlier this season. And it was a goal that really exemplified Emery's
01:02 coaching of build-up for Aston Villa. And in a nutshell, it was a goal that was
01:05 reliant on passing and dynamic movement to provide options for whoever was carrying the
01:10 ball. So the move started with Esri Konza having
01:12 the ball near the touchline, then playing it to Leon Bailey and then Boubacar Kamara,
01:16 who is not going to be available for this game, but he's very integral. We'll touch
01:19 on that later. He moved towards the halfway line and really
01:21 what this goal was all about was cutting through Arsenal's 4-4-2 defensive structure by playing
01:26 around them and then through them with runners like Tielemans or Diaby or Bailey or Watkins
01:32 or whoever it may be on the day. So Bailey gives it to Kamara who then feeds
01:35 it to Tielemans, but watch when Bailey gives it to Kamara. He's off, he's gone, he's
01:39 like Forrest Gump, no one can catch him. As soon as he's given that ball to Boubacar
01:42 Kamara, he knows that Tielemans will receive it, in behind the line of Arsenal's 4-4-2
01:47 midfield and then Bailey is gone. Leon Bailey consequently absolutely burns
01:51 Inchenko in behind, who can say they're surprised about that? And it leads to John
01:54 McGinn scoring the opening goal on the cutback. Now one very important thing to acknowledge
01:59 that's going to make this a lot more difficult though for Villa to do in a game like this,
02:02 since they last played Arsenal at Villa Park is the loss of Boubacar Kamara, who has been
02:07 fantastic for Unai Emery and has also supplemented Douglas Luiz, particularly allowing Douglas
02:12 Luiz to create and roam forward really, really well. Since he's been missing, Villa have
02:17 leaked a lot more goals. And in fact, Villa have already conceded three
02:20 more goals than they did in the entirety of last season and they're on course to ship
02:23 more than in their previous three Premier League campaigns. But what's most telling
02:27 about this is Villa have conceded two or more goals in eight out of 10 Premier League matches
02:32 without Boubacar Kamara. So they're clearly leaking goals and they're going to have to
02:37 stop this. But not only defensively, when referencing
02:39 the goal that John McGinn scored against Arsenal at Villa Park, which Boubacar Kamara was so
02:43 integral to creating, if you look at the forward passes per 90 when compared to Douglas Luiz
02:48 and Jorri Tielemans, Boubacar Kamara is marginally winning in this department when compared to
02:53 the other two. So not only can he create and play forward passes and help Villa score their
02:57 goals, but also like that stat I previously referenced, he's stopped Villa from leaking
03:02 goals. And since he's been gone, that is exactly what they've been doing and why they're slowly
03:06 sort of losing their grasp on the top four a little bit. I still think they should get
03:10 it if they can piece the puzzle together. But Boubacar Kamara has been a massive miss
03:15 and it's worth acknowledging. Do I have a solution to this at the Emirates
03:18 Stadium you ask? Well, you could park the bus and put ten behind the ball and play for
03:23 a nil-nil, which would really help Man City in the title race. But no, Adam, be sensible.
03:27 This is about how Villa should score. And when there's Watkins, there's a way, because
03:30 Oli Watkins is very quick and very good and every Premier League defence should be very
03:34 worried about him at the moment. But there's one particular stat which I found very, very
03:39 telling and interesting when having a dig into Oli Watkins this season. And it could
03:43 be a way that Arsenal concede to Aston Villa should they be able to get Oli Watkins in
03:48 behind and have John McGinn as a late arriver into the penalty area.
03:53 Now here you can see that Oli Watkins is actually in the top 1% of players in the top five leagues
03:58 in Europe for shots that lead to another goal scoring shot. So effectively rebounds. Now
04:04 look, absolutely luck does sometimes come into it when scoring a rebound of an initial
04:07 shot. But what you've got to think, I think there's two things to consider here. One is
04:11 that John McGinn and Leon Bailey in this instance, I think it would be, have to be there at the
04:15 right place at the right time to tap these goals in. And then the second thing is you'll
04:19 notice that Oli Watkins, when he does have his chances, he takes a lot of them drifting
04:23 in from the left-hand side. And if you think about being a goalkeeper in these situations
04:27 and you're parrying a shot that's being hit towards the far post, it's very often that
04:32 you're parrying these shots back into the danger area, back into the six yard box. It's
04:36 not always as easy as it looks to tip it round the post. It has to be an extraordinary save
04:40 and a very well-placed shot to do that. So when Watkins is hitting these shots hard and
04:44 low at what will be David Rye on the day, there may well be an opportunity where it's
04:49 parried into the six yard box, into the penalty area and John McGinn or someone similar is
04:53 there to tap it home. But then that does beg the question, how the hell do you get Oli Watkins
04:57 in behind when Arsenal are so preposterously good at defending? Well, there is a little
05:03 tactic that Arsenal like to employ sometimes, which I think Villa could potentially try
05:08 and expose in transition. I know I'm using Manchester City as an example here, but notice
05:13 when Phil Foden picks his ball up in the number eight position and how Ben White pushes out
05:18 to close him down instantly and try and nick the ball off him. If Villa can get any tricky
05:22 players like John McGinn or Morgan Rodgers or Moussa Diaby or Leon Bailey in these sort
05:27 of inside pockets, it might trigger either Zinchenko on the left or Ben White on the
05:32 right to push up and try and nick the ball as quickly as possible. And then what that
05:36 will do is leave a little bit of space out wide for Oli Watkins to run the channels into
05:41 and then maybe Villa can play a quick sequence like they did to score against Arsenal at
05:45 Villa Park and rinse and repeat that really. I genuinely feel like that's the only way
05:49 that you can get at this Arsenal side right now. And like, forgive me, it is really, really
05:54 hard to, I think Arsenal have conceded like four goals in 2020. Do you know what, let
05:59 me have a look at this now. Yeah, I was right. There we go. Four goals in the hill. That
06:02 is ridiculous. Oh my God. Four goals in 11 league matches in 2024. So forgive me, I am
06:07 trying to figure out a way at how Aston Villa or any side in the league really can hurt
06:12 Arsenal defensively at the moment. And it's very, very difficult. But Villa are one of
06:16 the only four teams to beat Arsenal in the league this season. And when they did do it
06:21 at Villa Park, they did it fairly convincingly with a plan, with structure, with rigidity,
06:26 if that's a word, I think it is. So, you know, they've got to try and do that again. And
06:31 by baiting Zinchenko or White and using the pace that they've got in behind, I think that's
06:34 probably the best way that they're going to be able to get at Arsenal. And just to finally
06:39 hammer this point home with how evenly distributed Villa's attack is from the left flank and
06:43 the right flank running in behind, whether that's Watkins or Bailey, they attack 35%
06:47 down the left-hand side and 35% down the right. So it's a perfect equilibrium. Boom, perfect
06:53 split. They mix and match in which of the channel that they decide to run. And it's
06:57 worked very, very well for Villa this season. So they can go both ways. They can try and
07:02 bait White or Zinchenko's press and get in behind on either side. They're equally good
07:05 at doing it on either side. And I think that's their best shot. Anyway, now for the interview
07:11 part of the video. Now, I feel like I've been quite positive on Aston Villa there and how
07:14 they can potentially hurt Arsenal, but perhaps it's time for me to get a reality check because
07:19 we're going to now speak to a Villa fan, Kyle Picknall, who used to work alongside me. He's
07:23 a writer. He's a content creator, massive, massive Villa fan, very, very funny man. So
07:28 we're going to speak to him now on how he thinks Villa will perform this season and
07:32 how he thinks Villa will perform at the Emirates. So Kyle, take it away.
07:37 If you'd asked me to start the season, we'd be fighting for a Champions League place and
07:41 still be in Europa Conference League. I would have bitten your hand off. I thought we didn't
07:45 really have the squad to do both those things. But even despite some really tough injuries
07:50 to Tyrone Mings, Buendia, Kamara, we're still sort of reaching our objective. So really
07:56 can't fault it. I think Unai has been amazing. And although we do seem to be running out
08:01 of steam a little bit as we're sort of getting to the business end, and that's just like
08:05 injuries taking their toll, suspensions, like Douglas Luiz getting suspended for these next
08:11 two games. He literally had seconds to go to not foul someone. He just couldn't resist.
08:18 The Brazilian shithouse in him just, he saw someone and thought, I'm going to kick him.
08:22 I don't care.
08:23 Yeah, well, I guess that kind of leads me into my next question. Because obviously you're
08:26 going to the Emirates this weekend. You have no Douglas Luiz, but also I think more importantly,
08:30 perhaps no Boubacar Kamara. Now when doing this video, I found a little stat. So in eight
08:36 out of the 12 games that he's missed this season for Villa, you've conceded two or more
08:40 goals. So you clearly leap more goals when Kamara's not there. But with Luiz not there
08:45 as well, how do you how do you think Villa are going to solve that sort of midfield pivot
08:49 issue when going somewhere like Arsenal?
08:53 We're going to go to pray to the football gods. Basically, Kamara's our only real hold
08:58 in midfield. We even in the squad, we had the Leander Dendoncker, but he was he was
09:04 a wardrobe basically he was absolutely useless. There's no mobility, not suited to Premier
09:09 League at all. And now we've got Tim Irwin who was on loan at QPR last season and who
09:14 looks like a good a good player, but he's he's really untested this level and he started
09:19 against City for instance, and sort of he looked a bit lost. And that's that's no fault
09:24 of his we generally just we bought the best of it and tried to plan the counter. So he
09:28 had he had an awful job trying to try to basically shuttle between marking Foden and Alvarez and
09:35 Grealish and Doku is just is a nightmare. So in short, without Kamara, it's it's tough
09:39 anyway, because he really does just solidify the entire team. He's our backbone. He's so
09:45 good at recovering the ball and covering like huge amounts of space when McGinn and Louise
09:49 and Ramsey just bomb forward. So he's absolutely vital. And the big thought in our squad at
09:54 the moment is we don't have another player that can step in and do that job. And I was
09:58 hoping we'd sign someone in January never happened. And then Dodgers gone to Napoli
10:02 on loan for some reason. And we just haven't been able to replace him since that injury.
10:07 We sort of dropped McGinn a bit deeper, but he's not really suited to that he can kind
10:11 of do it, but he's he's naturally instinct is to just charge forward. So he really has
10:16 to like reel in his sort of abilities as a player. And so that's that's Kamara and then
10:24 Louise next to him. It's just a really intelligent footballer. And they work so well together.
10:28 So without both of them, it's looking like it's even going to be McGinn and Tillman's
10:32 as two holding midfielders, which is it's a big yikes for me to be quite honest.
10:37 Yeah, Tillman's most mobile. Well, I guess I've had to like, try and figure out how not
10:44 just Villa but any team can score against Arsenal in 2024. They conceded four goals
10:48 and they're not really conceding from any form of play, not set pieces, not really open
10:52 play nothing. So obviously Aston Villa are one of the four teams that have actually beat
10:56 Arsenal this season and they did it fairly comfortably albeit at one nil at Villa Park.
11:01 And the goal that they scored was a transition down the right hand side and I think it was
11:05 Leon Bailey who ran in behind passing Cenko after a quick sequence. Now, do you think
11:10 that's I mean, look, Bailey, DRB and Watkins are all going to be available. We're all very
11:14 quick footballers. Do you think that's the only way in the way that Villa are going to
11:19 have to try and get off that Arsenal perhaps on the counter attack in transition in behind
11:23 their full backs, maybe have Watkins running the channels on the right or left hand side?
11:28 Yeah, essentially, that is that is going to be our game plan. And it's interesting you
11:31 said that because looking at the Arsenal team at the moment, their only real weakness is
11:35 sort of when Zinchenko plays at left back and he does tend to kind of leave a bit of
11:39 space and get forward and he drifts inside a lot. So really, I imagine you know, Murray
11:45 might play Bailey and DRB and both have them drifting over to that sort of area of the
11:50 pitch because elsewhere like Saliba, White and Gabrielle are all rocks like it's it's
11:55 really tough to get them. Declan Rice's is everywhere usually. So yeah, it's going to
12:02 be very much a case of attacking that channel. And that's if Zinchenko plays, they might
12:06 play cool or they might play Tommy Yasu are both really good defensively. So yeah, it's
12:11 going to be really tough. But I think actually, Morgan Rogers is is perfect for this game.
12:16 And he played really well against city and he's sort of biggest attribute is, is receiving
12:21 the ball on the turn and just carrying it forward. And we have Jacob Ramsey who can
12:25 do that as well. He was unfortunately injured for this game. But Rogers like he did get
12:27 city was really impressive. And I'm just hoping we can see more of that from him against Arsenal
12:32 because it can't just be left to the army's been inconsistent. Bailey's maybe been one
12:37 of our standout players this season. But yeah, it can't just be left to them. And it's a
12:42 case of just taking our chances when they come because we're not going to get much we're
12:45 going to get sniffs at that. So yeah, it's going to be very much try and try to stay
12:50 tight, narrow and hit them on the counter.
12:52 Yeah, I mean, you mentioned Morgan Rogers there. He actually scored against Brentford
12:56 in the last time out for Villa. I was at his first goal for the club or what? Yeah, well,
13:00 yeah, I used to be at Man City. Obviously, the guy who has scored the most goals this
13:05 season is Ollie Watkins 27 goal involvements for Villa this season. He's having the best
13:09 season of his career. So just some thoughts on him really, obviously, he is going to be
13:13 the weapon against Arsenal. I don't need to insult your intelligence on that. But just
13:17 like generally, in terms of this season, what you made of Ollie Watkins and also, should
13:21 he be in the Euro squad?
13:22 First of all, I think he should definitely be the new squad. Without a shadow of a doubt.
13:28 And I also think he's he should probably one of the favourites for player of the year.
13:32 And it kind of baffles me that he hasn't been mentioned. Like for instance, Cole Palmer,
13:36 who's had a fantastic season himself. And he's doing really well at Chelsea, as I've
13:40 seen him mentioned a few times this week, when Ollie has has more goals, more assists
13:44 and no penalties taken. And just sort of he's carried us really in terms of his goal scoring
13:49 his output. He's really he's really the perfect striker to build a team around and any Villa
13:54 fan you speak to will say they wouldn't swap him for anyone else in the league. They went
13:57 to Holland. They went to open for Kai Havertz playing well is the moment for instance. He
14:04 just in terms of like what he does, he can hold the ball up, you can get in behind you
14:07 can run the channels. And Emory has just transformed him from a sort of, I'd say before he was
14:13 quite inconsistent, he didn't put away maybe as many chances as you'd like. And he sort
14:19 of had a habit of doing maybe too much running. And that's the thing where Emory came in and
14:24 said, Look, I want you to stick to the central area of the pitch. We've got players out wide
14:27 now who can hurt you and do a job to score goals. And he's just been he's been phenomenal.
14:32 And he's so durable as well. I think it's underrated like how how much of an iron man
14:36 he is. He rarely gets injured. He had a knock recently. So he missed he missed. He missed
14:42 the game. But other than that, he plays pretty much 90 minutes every week. He's played Europe
14:46 the Conference League. And he just he just works so hard. It's Yeah, he's he's irreplaceable.
14:53 I feel like we might get some offers in the summer, but he's a player that I really, really
14:57 would never want to see him in the cell.
14:59 Yeah, I don't think they will either. So Kyle, finally, then we always leave with a score
15:04 prediction. You can be as optimistic or pessimistic or realistic as you want. But what do you
15:09 reckon the score is going to be Arsenal v Villa?
15:13 So I think I think actually, Arsenal gonna feel the pressure of the fact that they're
15:18 going for the title, pun intended, and it's now in their hands the top of the league.
15:24 And I think if we can keep it nil nil up until about 5060 minutes, and the crowd the crowd
15:29 can get a bit antsy, then I feel like we could get so I'm going to say one one, which is
15:35 optimistic, but
15:37 I am on my knees.
15:38 We've got we've got looting. So that's a write off. So that's why we do it. Yeah. Right.
15:44 Lovely stuff, Kyle. Thank you very much for joining us, mate. Really, really appreciate
15:48 that.
15:49 Pleasure. Thanks for having me.
15:51 Thank you very much, Kyle. Now, yes, as a Manchester City fan, of course, I want Arsenal
15:56 to slip up here and Villa. I am begging you. I am on my knees. Please do something now
16:01 when I first joined 442 actually made a video a few months back when Villa beat Arsenal
16:05 and City consecutively one at home back to back on how they could potentially.
16:10 I can't believe I'm going to say this, how they could potentially win the Premier League,
16:13 which was, of course, a massive overreaction in hindsight. And I'm hoping that this right
16:18 here isn't as well. Fingers crossed. Anyway, guys. Yes. Hope you have enjoyed. I hope you
16:25 are. Hope you are. Hope you have enjoyed the video. Don't forget to subscribe, guys. I've
16:30 been Adam Monk. Have a lovely day or evening whenever you're watching this on the Friday.
16:34 Take care, I'll see you soon, goodbye!