"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Selasa (23/04/2024) dengan Tema Pasar Saham Nantikan Kebijakan The Fed".
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00:00 We will continue to look at some economic agendas from Asia.
00:04 There is the South Korea's IHP, or the Price Index of Produce, in March and also month-on-month.
00:09 Then there is the Singapore's IHK Inti, year-on-year, in March.
00:12 And the Hong Kong's IHK, in March.
00:15 Those are the three main agendas of the economic analysts this morning, or today.
00:21 And we will continue to look at the EMITEN agenda.
00:23 From domestic, there is HMS, which will be the agenda for the RUPS, or the General Meeting of Stockholders.
00:28 The same goes for AALI.
00:30 Then, some other stocks, the investors will also be directing the RUPS.
00:34 About 9 EMITEN that we have summarized today, are planned to direct the RUPS.
00:40 Then, the investors have SDRA, HMETD, Jati, the cash dividend, and Roti, the cash dividend date,
00:50 as well as BNGA, and also BNLE, and LPPF.
00:55 Or, as you can see on the screen, the EMITEN agenda.
01:01 And we will continue to look at the update of the Asia Stock Exchange this morning,
01:06 which may be a picture of the opening of the trading in the first session,
01:10 especially for the joint stock price index.
01:13 There is Nikkei Japan, which is expected to strengthen by 0.41%,
01:16 Singapore's Stratem, which is expected to increase by 0.96%,
01:19 Kospi, which is expected to increase by 0.17%,
01:21 and Hong Kong, which is expected to increase by 1.18%.
01:25 My forecaster from the Asia Stock Exchange is following the development of the closing of the US Stock Exchange
01:30 and the European Stock Exchange, which are also moving in the positive territory, or closed in the positive territory.
01:34 And our forecaster for today, we will discuss through a video conference with the observer of the capital market, Mr. Hans Kui.
01:50 Good morning, Mr. Hans.
01:52 Good morning, Ma'am.
01:53 Thank you for your time this morning, Mr. Hans.
01:56 We are watching the development of the joint stock price index.
01:58 Yesterday, the IHSG was still weak, Mr. Hans, around 7073.
02:06 How is the opportunity today in the middle of the Asia Stock Exchange, which we saw earlier, compacted,
02:11 then the closing of the Wall Street Stock Exchange also strengthened, so did Europe.
02:15 Is there a potential for the IHSG to rebound?
02:18 Yes, actually, yesterday, the IHSG should have a stronger potential.
02:24 So yesterday, the market was limited in correction,
02:29 and today we estimate that the index is indeed more potentially strong.
02:34 The main factor of the market, if we look at last week, the Friday market was quite worried,
02:41 because there was an attack, a response from Israel to Iran.
02:46 But there are some points that are quite important.
02:49 First, Iran's opinion is relatively small and does not consider it an attack from Israel,
02:57 and the explosion happened because of their air defense system.
03:02 This is indeed the main factor that is always observed by the market,
03:07 because the conflict that took place in the Middle East is getting hotter and hotter.
03:15 Because we see that after the conflict between Israel and Iran,
03:21 now there are some fighters in other regions, also supported by Iran,
03:27 to provide assistance to Hamas.
03:32 So this conflict is still a concern of the market.
03:35 But the market is currently dominated by corporate reports.
03:40 If we look at the US corporate reports,
03:45 it is pushing the Wall Street bulls to be stronger in the Friday trade yesterday.
03:51 So there is a potential that the IHSG will also be stronger today, right, Mr. Hans?
03:57 Yes, that's right.
03:58 How far do you see the reading of the IMF's decision on the consumer's income
04:03 as a market player and can drive or be a sentiment for the market?
04:08 More to the positive, right, sir?
04:10 Yes, of course, if we look at the IMF's decision, it is already final.
04:16 So it feels like there will be no meaningful conflict there.
04:21 And this is pretty good, because from the beginning I said that
04:26 indeed the most important thing for our voters is to be in peace.
04:32 And again, if we look at it, there is nothing very significant.
04:39 So if we think about it, the IMF should be responded to quite positively by the market itself.
04:46 Okay, it will be responded to quite a bit as a driver for the index of the share price of our joint stock
04:53 to be stronger today, right, Mr. Hans?
04:56 That's right.
04:57 What will be the opportunity for the opening this morning in the index of the joint stock price?
05:00 Will it be significant enough or a failure?
05:04 Yes, if we think about it, the opportunity should be more potential to be quite strong, right?
05:11 Because if we look at it, actually our market is a bit left behind, right?
05:16 Because the market has started to rebound, we are a bit left behind.
05:20 In general, our fundamental economy is very good in the country.
05:25 Indeed, there is a little problem with our exchange rate.
05:30 But with the hope that the global risk will decrease, the domestic factor is also quite good,
05:37 we hope that foreign inflows can return to our market.
05:42 Because yesterday there was a fund that came out in the Sun market,
05:45 and this also puts pressure on our exchange rate.
05:50 For the IASG itself, if we look at it, it should be strong today.
05:56 Even if we look at it, maybe the first resistance is 7141 that will be tested.
06:04 Then if we look at the support index, maybe around 7026.
06:09 Okay, 7141 is the first target that is the closest resistance to the index of the joint stock price.
06:18 But for now, based on the closing data in the trading on Monday, Mr. Hans,
06:23 what trend is the IASG in?
06:26 Yes, if we look at it, in the short term, the trend is down.
06:31 In the medium term, the trend is also down.
06:34 But in the long term, we still see that the IASG is still moving in the upward trend.
06:40 The trend changes in the market are more affected by the change in policy potential
06:47 that may be done by the Federal Reserve.
06:50 Where if we look at it, if we look at it earlier in the year,
06:55 the market estimated 6-7 times the cut of the Fed Fund Rate.
07:00 But now the market is shifting, especially the inflation data is still quite high in the US,
07:06 the labor market is still quite strong.
07:09 This market is shifting from the potential of the flower cut in June to September.
07:16 Then, the cut was 3 times, now the cut is only 1-2 times that the Federal Reserve itself did.
07:25 The growth was quite high, now it's shrinking.
07:29 The point that will be cut, the estimated point will be cut, right, Mr. Hans?
07:34 Correct.
07:35 Okay. How far will this affect the emittance that is closely related to the flower breed?
07:41 Remembering that Mr. Hans, the positive news comes from the BCI.
07:45 For the financial report in Q1 2024, it still grows 11.7%, almost Rp. 13 trillion, if I'm not mistaken, yes, Rp. 12.9 trillion.
07:57 How far can this be an example for other financial reports, other banks' emittance?
08:01 Because many people assume that it won't be as high as in 2023 in the same quarter.
08:06 But it seems that the BCI proves the opposite.
08:09 We will discuss more about this banking later, Mr. Mirsa.
08:12 Stay with us in the Market Plus segment.
08:16 Thank you, Mr. Mirsa, for being with us.
08:18 We have discussed quite a long time with Mr. Hans Kui about the regional that played in the green zone this morning.
08:25 And there is a chance that the joint share price index this morning will also come out of the red line that was hit by the trade on Monday.
08:34 Okay, Mr. Hans, what is also interesting to be the main sentiment this morning is the report of the first quarter of the BCI that is quite strong.
08:42 How far can this reflect other financial reports and recommendations for the emittance of the banking sector?
08:49 Yes, indeed, if we look at some of the reports when we look at February, the banking sector is a bit down.
08:57 But the BCI is moving a bit differently.
09:01 So, the first quarter report that came out was quite good.
09:06 If we look at the flower income, it rose by 7.1% in the sixth year.
09:13 Then if we look at the indicators, this is actually an increase in credit distribution that is distributed by the BCI to the business world.
09:25 And this is one of the things that contributes to push the corporate interest rate to increase.
09:31 And the third party is a little smaller in size compared to the credit that is distributed.
09:36 So it looks like the BCI Bank is a bit more expansive.
09:39 Maybe it looks like the economy is better when the election is held.
09:47 There is an opportunity for investors this morning, along with the IHSE, maybe will leave the red line and turn positive.
09:56 Along with the Asian exchange this morning, will be accompanied by the BBCA, Mr. Hans.
10:00 And what is your recommendation for the BBCA?
10:02 Well, if we think about it, the BBCA is quite good for us to accumulate purchases.
10:07 Before, it always went above 10,000.
10:11 Now it's back down to more or less 9,350.
10:17 If we think at level 93.50, 94.50, we can start buying the BBCA.
10:25 Remembering that the market was more likely to be corrected yesterday because the global tendency increased.
10:33 When the risk increased, people tend to move to safe haven assets.
10:37 So of course people will choose, like gold, then back to advanced countries like the Swiss franc, then Japan and the US dollar itself.
10:48 And also buy US government bonds as an option when the risk increases.
10:55 And one of the things sold is equity.
10:58 That's why stocks like the BBCA, Mandiri, BRI tend to be corrected yesterday.
11:03 But as long as the performance is good enough, of course, if we see there is a potential rebound in the BBCA.
11:09 Perhaps what is also quite noticeable by the market players is the end of the resources program that occurred during the COVID period.
11:19 And if we look at the resources yesterday, during the COVID period, it really helped the IMF.
11:26 And it is expected that the remaining problems are quite small, so it doesn't really interfere with the energy flow forward.
11:34 But of course this is still being noticed by the market players.
11:37 Is there any impact from the last COVID-19 program?
11:46 In the middle of the short-term trend for the BBCA, it tends to decline, along with many negative sentiments yesterday
11:52 that made the market players take profit-taking action, especially in banking, including the BBCA.
11:58 So there are patterns that have declined for the BBCA.
12:01 In the middle of the quarter 1, which is actually still quite strong, is this an opportunity to buy?
12:08 Or how?
12:10 Remembering the negative sentiment, it still imagines the tension in the Middle East that may affect the price of commodities,
12:15 leaving the equity asset behind, and then there is also the opportunity to cut the flow of the flower,
12:22 which is not as expected at first.
12:25 How do we handle or manage the banking sector like the BBCA at the moment?
12:30 Especially those who may not have it yet, sir.
12:33 Yes, if we look at the medium and short term, the BBCA is moving in a downward trend.
12:41 But if we look at it, it did not form a lower yesterday, in the 92-50.
12:47 But in the long run, the BBCA is still moving in an upward trend.
12:52 Then if we look at it, the majority of these banks are hunting investors
12:58 when there is an expectation of a cut of 300 flowers, which is quite a lot by the Federal Reserve,
13:03 which may also be followed by our central banks.
13:07 As the trend moves, people are profiteering.
13:11 If we think about it, investors can buy speculatively,
13:15 because if we look at the current level of support,
13:19 so we can buy at 93-94, we cut loss below 92 for trading.
13:27 While the transaction target is at 96-75, up to 9,700 for the short term.
13:35 Up to 99-50.
13:38 Okay, for the short term, it's interesting to buy at the current price of 9,350,
13:45 which has weakened by about 8% in the last month of the market.
13:50 I think this is a buy level. But avoid if it is below 92, Mr. Hans.
13:55 Yes, 92 because it will break the support area,
14:00 so we are a little careful there for trading.
14:04 What about the long term investors?
14:07 Yes, actually if we look at it, at that time, the BCA rose from 8,700 to 9,000.
14:16 Then it formed an uptrend from the end of the year at that level, then formed an uptrend.
14:22 It feels a bit difficult to get the prices at that level again.
14:28 We also think that the area of 92-93-94 is also a good accumulation for those who want to have BCA for a long period.
14:38 Okay, the cheaper, the better for those who want to have BCA for a long term, Mr. Hans.
14:43 Even below 92, if you get it, it's okay. Like that, it's a buy.
14:47 Yes, it's a buy. Because if we look at it, BCA is still the most solid banking emittance right now.
14:54 Okay, the most solid banking emittance. And Mr. Hans said earlier,
14:58 there is an employment figure in February from a number of banks that seems to be a bit lower, but different from BCA.
15:04 Does that mean you are just recommending BCA right now,
15:09 while waiting for other major banking finance reports that may not be as solid as BCA?
15:14 Or what is it like, sir?
15:16 Yes, actually if we look at it,
15:21 currently, the financial reports may be good in BCA.
15:27 Maybe others are a little under pressure.
15:30 But if we are in a long-term investment, this will certainly open up opportunities too.
15:35 Like the BBRI emittance, if we look at it.
15:38 BBRI is a bit corrected, maybe more than others.
15:44 But if we look at it, at the level of 5,000 to 5,300,
15:51 BBRI is also a good emittance if we want to buy and hold for a long-term trader.
15:58 Long term, not short term, Mr. Hans.
16:01 Yes, because we haven't seen the base that BBRI has opened up.
16:10 Maybe if we want to do trans-trading, we will wait for the price to go above 5,500.
16:19 By if-brick, right?
16:21 Yes.
16:22 How will the BBRI financial report projection be in Q1, Mr. Hans?
16:27 Yes, I think there may be a slight decline.
16:32 But if we think about it, as good as the previous years,
16:37 this decline is not a problem for a bank as big as BRI.
16:43 Okay. We leave the emittance banking, Mr. Mirza,
16:46 as the financial report from the BCA is still strong in Q1 2024.
16:54 Thank you.
16:55 (bell ringing)
16:57 [BLANK_AUDIO]