• 8 months ago
Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral terus memantau eskalasi konflik di Timur Tengah antara Iran dan Israel yang semakin memanas. Pasalnya, konflik yang berkepanjangan bakal berdampak bagi penyediaan minyak mentah dan BBM di dalam negeri. Apalagi, Indonesia merupakan net importir minyak.

Menteri ESDM Arifin Tasrif membeberkan bahwa produksi minyak mentah dalam negeri selama ini belum cukup untuk memenuhi kebutuhan domestik. Saat ini produksi minyak nasional rata-rata hanya berkisar di level 600 ribu barel per hari (bph). Di sisi lain, saat ini Indonesia mengimpor minyak dari berbagai negara secara total 840 ribu barel per hari (bph), terdiri dari minyak mentah sebesar 240 ribu bph dan produk BBM sebesar 600 ribu bph. Meskidemikian, Arifin memastikan bahwa pemerintah tidak akan menaikkan harga BBM hingga Juni 2024. Sekalipun tensi di kawasan Timur Tengah antara Iran dan Israel tengah memanas.

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00:00Indonesia's Economic Movement
00:16Hello viewers, live from IDX Channel Jakarta, I am Prasetya Wayu Bowo.
00:20Welcome back to Market Review.
00:22A program that discusses the economic movement in Indonesia.
00:25You can watch our live streaming at IDXchannel.com
00:29Let's start the complete market review.
00:41The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources...
00:44...continues to monitor the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East...
00:46...between Iran and Israel, which is getting hotter.
00:49The long-term conflict will have an impact...
00:52...on the provision of crude oil and BBM in the country.
00:56Moreover, Indonesia is now a oil importer.
01:04The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources...
01:07...continues to monitor the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East...
01:10...between Iran and Israel, which is getting hotter.
01:12The long-term conflict will have an impact...
01:15...on the provision of crude oil and BBM in the country.
01:18Moreover, Indonesia is a oil importer.
01:22The Minister of Primary Industries, Marifin Tasrif, has authorized...
01:24...that the production of crude oil in the country is not enough...
01:27...to meet domestic needs.
01:29Currently, the average national oil production...
01:32...is only around 600,000 barrels per day.
01:35On the other hand, Indonesia currently imports oil...
01:38...from various countries in total 840,000 barrels per day...
01:42...consisting of crude oil as large as 240,000 barrels per day...
01:46...and BBM products as large as 600,000 barrels per day.
01:50The stock is sufficient.
01:53The Ministry of Agriculture has taken security measures...
01:57...in case there is a supply shortage...
02:02...especially in areas of conflict.
02:11We have checked with the Ministry of Agriculture...
02:14...and they have taken security measures...
02:17...including LPG.
02:20LPG is important.
02:23If we have rice, we can't cook it.
02:26It's a hassle.
02:31For energy security, we have to prepare a lot of things.
02:36We already have a program.
02:39Gas stove, electric stove.
02:42This is a warning for us...
02:45...so that we can accelerate.
02:48Despite this, Arifin ensures that the government...
02:51...will not increase the price of BBM until June 2024...
02:54...even though tensions in the Middle East...
02:56...between Iran and Israel are heating up.
02:58If the conflict continues and widens...
03:01...then the government will take action...
03:04...one of which is to review the President's Regulation No. 191 of 2014...
03:09...on the provision, distribution and price of BBM sales.
03:13The revision of this regulation will regulate...
03:16...the limitation of BBM subsidies per talay.
03:19From Jakarta, Devir Mansyah, IDX Channel.
03:44...around 840,000 barrels per day...
03:47...so that the condition must be imported...
03:50...to meet domestic needs...
03:52...where raw oil has 240,000 barrels per day...
03:55...while in the form of fuel or BBM...
03:58...reaches 600,000 barrels per day.
04:03Next, we will honor the countries...
04:05...that import the most oil to Indonesia.
04:08This is data from 2022.
04:11The first is Singapore...
04:13...10.3 billion US dollars...
04:16...or around 10.9 million tons.
04:20Next is Malaysia...
04:22...6.2 billion US dollars...
04:24...around 6.7 tons.
04:27Then we see Saudi Arabia...
04:30...5.95 billion US dollars...
04:32...importing Nigeria...
04:34...5.67 billion US dollars...
04:37...then the United States...
04:39...3.17 billion US dollars.
04:43Those are the countries...
04:45...that import the most oil to Indonesia.
04:50Next, we will see...
04:52...the realization of oil and gas importation.
04:58From January to March last year...
05:01...the movement reached 8.33 billion US dollars...
05:06...for the realization of oil and gas importation in Indonesia.
05:12We see an increase of 8.13 percent...
05:16...to 9 billion US dollars...
05:19...from January to March 2024...
05:23...or throughout the first quarter of 2024.
05:30Next, we will see...
05:32...from the import of gas in the first quarter of 2024...
05:38...for the import of crude oil...
05:41...reached 2.4 billion US dollars...
05:45...while for the import of oil...
05:47...6.6 billion US dollars.
05:51Those are some data related to...
05:53...production, needs, and importation...
05:57...of crude oil or BBM to Indonesia.
06:02To discuss our topic today...
06:04...in order to anticipate the rise of oil and gas importation...
06:08...we have contacted Mr. Abra Talatov.
06:12He is an in-depth economist.
06:14Good morning, Mr. Abra.
06:16Good morning, Mr. Prahas.
06:18How are you, Mr. Abra?
06:20I'm fine.
06:21Thank you for your time.
06:23It's interesting to talk about...
06:25...the global condition of crude oil prices.
06:28What do you think about the in-depth review?
06:31How do you see the correlation...
06:33...between the increase in oil prices globally?
06:38Yes.
06:39We are constantly monitoring...
06:42...the geopolitical dynamics...
06:45...especially in the Middle East...
06:47...between Israel and Palestine...
06:49...and it has spread to several countries...
06:51...especially Iran.
06:52And when there was an attack...
06:54...by Israel's retaliation to Iran last Friday...
06:57...we can see the impact in the short term.
07:00The world crude oil price...
07:02...increased by 3.6% that day.
07:04Even the brand has reached 90 USD per barrel.
07:08And with this 90 USD per barrel...
07:12...it's not a stable level...
07:17...but there is still a potential for a surge.
07:20Even some parties, including the government...
07:22...have anticipated the scenario...
07:26...of an increase in crude oil prices to 100 USD per barrel.
07:29And this is certainly a risk...
07:32...for our defense and energy conditions...
07:36...and our energy readiness...
07:38...to face the risks of global geopolitics.
07:41Because in 2022...
07:43...we learned from the experience of the Russian-Ukrainian war...
07:46...that in 2022, the crude oil price...
07:49...reached the level of 100-110 USD per barrel.
07:52And at that time, we were also under pressure...
07:56...to face an increase in crude oil prices.
07:58And in the end, the government...
08:00...increased the price of energy subsidies...
08:03...which is quite significant.
08:05Maybe later I will show you...
08:07...the real risks to our fiscal.
08:09And from the projection side...
08:11...it's only been 3 or 4 days...
08:15...since the Israeli retaliation to Iran.
08:17And there is still a risk...
08:19...of retaliation from Iran...
08:21...as well as from countries...
08:23...that are also represented in this global geopolitics.
08:26So, indeed...
08:28...the risk above 100 USD...
08:30...or even more extreme, above 110 or 120 USD...
08:34...is very open and wide.
08:36Okay.
08:37What is the reaction from countries...
08:39...that produce crude oil?
08:41For example, OPEC or OPEC Plus...
08:43...including Russia.
08:44How do you see it?
08:45Are they anticipating it?
08:47Or are they actually happy...
08:49...with the increase in the price of crude oil...
08:51...that can reach 100 USD per barrel?
08:54Yes.
08:55Actually...
08:57...this geopolitics...
09:00...doesn't have a direct impact...
09:02...from the production side.
09:03But what is actually affected...
09:06...is from the distribution side.
09:08How the flow of crude oil...
09:10...from the east to the west...
09:13...through the Red Sea...
09:15...or the Suez Strait...
09:17...will be very disturbed...
09:18...when the escalation still continues.
09:21From the production side, OPEC countries...
09:23...I see...
09:24...the ability to add space...
09:26...to increase production...
09:27...is still open and wide.
09:29But the problem is from the distribution side.
09:31And this distribution that is disturbed...
09:33...will also increase the risk...
09:36...of disrupting the supply chain...
09:39...in this energy community.
09:42And I see...
09:44...in each country that needs...
09:47...crude importation or BBM...
09:50...they have prepared a scenario...
09:53...and mitigated it...
09:55...by doing a long-term purchase contract...
09:59...with the price...
10:01...hedged...
10:03...hedged from now on...
10:05...set in a contract...
10:06...so that it can reduce...
10:08...the risk of increasing the budget...
10:11...to import BBM or crude oil.
10:14Okay, how is the impact from the scarcity side...
10:17...that many parties are worried about?
10:18Yes, because from the production side...
10:20...it is not limited...
10:22...but we know the distribution...
10:24...the path that must go through...
10:26...the region or even...
10:28...the hope in Africa...
10:30...that needs time, even up to...
10:32...10 days or more.
10:33We will discuss it in the next segment.
10:35We will be back in a moment.
10:37Mr. Bradar and Mr. Mirsa, stay with us.
10:49Yes, it is getting more interesting...
10:51...to talk with Mr. Abra Telato of Ekonom Indafia...
10:53...regarding the impact of...
10:55...the global geopolitical conflict...
10:57...that is spreading in the Middle East...
10:59...regarding the movement of the price of crude oil.
11:02Mr. Abra, what is Indonesia's position...
11:05...as the net importer of crude oil right now?
11:09Is this going to be something that...
11:12...we will see in the future?
11:15Is this going to be something that...
11:17...we will see in the future...
11:20...considering the global price crisis...
11:22...it will increase the price...
11:24...and from the production side...
11:26...or even the lifting of the price of gas...
11:28...we will be able to reach the target.
11:30Please, Mr. Abra.
11:32First, we need to see...
11:34...how our energy supply...
11:37...especially BBM...
11:39...between the production balance...
11:41...and consumption...
11:43...is not able to be covered...
11:46...from the ability of our domestic production...
11:49...we see that the trend...
11:51...of our national oil production...
11:53...continues to decline...
11:55...from year to year.
11:56For example, if we look at the data from 2017...
11:59...our gas production...
12:01...at that time was still able to reach...
12:03...801,000 barrels per day...
12:05...from 800,000...
12:07...continued to decline last year to only 605,000.
12:10On the other hand, our BBM consumption...
12:12...continues to increase rapidly...
12:14...especially during the COVID-19 pandemic...
12:19...and this is reflected...
12:21...in our BBM consumption...
12:23...which continues to rise...
12:25...from the year 2017...
12:28...2019 still 17 million liters...
12:32...this year it's already 19 million liters.
12:34The increase in consumption...
12:36...without being accompanied by an increase in production...
12:39...the consequence is...
12:41...we need a bigger import.
12:44This increase in import...
12:46...the risk is not only from...
12:48...the increase in the price of raw oil...
12:50...which is worried that it will touch 100 dollars per barrel...
12:53...but there is also a second risk...
12:55...which is the variable of our exchange rate.
12:57In 2024...
12:59...our assumption is 15,000 rupiah per dollar...
13:02...until today it's more or less above 16,000.
13:05This means that these two risks...
13:07...have become part of...
13:09...the context of increasing our MIGAS deficit...
13:13...and the third risk is over-quota.
13:15If for example...
13:17...the price of raw oil rises...
13:20...the government must have a more limited choice...
13:24...increase the first subsidy budget...
13:27...or reduce or limit the distribution of subsidized BBMs...
13:31...in the sense that the quota is not added...
13:33...because there is a tendency...
13:35...when the price of non-subsidized BBMs rises...
13:39...the price disparity between non-subsidized BBMs and subsidized BBMs...
13:42...becomes wider.
13:43Of course, logically...
13:44...the people will choose...
13:46...to migrate using subsidized BBMs...
13:48...especially per toliet and solar subsidized BBMs.
13:50This is very dangerous...
13:53...when the government is unable to determine from the beginning...
13:56...how big the potential of non-subsidized BBMs migration to subsidized BBMs.
14:01Therefore, the government is in a hurry...
14:04...to immediately reform the energy subsidy...
14:07...in order to change the mechanism of subsidized BBMs...
14:11...from being open to being targeted or closed.
14:14We know that the government from year to year...
14:16...has a huge anxiety...
14:18...concerned about shock...
14:21...social shock...
14:23...and on the economic side...
14:25...concerned about increasing inflation for the people.
14:28But this is indeed a choice that...
14:32...does not please all parties...
14:34...but must be done by the government smoothly.
14:40It means that there is a transition process...
14:42...that should have been done 3-5 years ago.
14:45The government neglects to reform the energy subsidy.
14:49So, how brave are the steps that must be taken by the government?
14:53Remember, this is a very urgent condition...
14:56...that the possibility of rising oil prices in the world...
14:59...will continue to increase...
15:00...and the possibility will also be limited.
15:02Then, the needs cannot be reduced in the country.
15:05In fact, it is increasing with the number of motor vehicle sales...
15:08...which has reached 1 million units per year.
15:12What do you think?
15:13Will these choices...
15:16...become a long-term discussion from the government?
15:19Because the choices are not both pleasant.
15:22Yes.
15:23First, of course, how can we convince or encourage the government...
15:27...to immediately make the right decision...
15:30...is by seeing how far our fiscal capacity can withstand...
15:35...the rise in oil prices...
15:37...and also the trend of the currency exchange rate.
15:39This year, in 2024, the government allocated...
15:43...a subsidy budget of 110 trillion Rupiah...
15:47...assuming that the exchange rate is 15,000 Rupiah...
15:51...and the oil price is 80 dollars per barrel.
15:55I tried to make a simulation...
15:57...that when the price of crude oil can reach 100 dollars per barrel...
16:02...assuming the exchange rate is still 15,000...
16:04...that alone has the potential to increase the subsidy budget...
16:08...and our BBM compensation is approximately 106 trillion...
16:12...or per increase of 1 dollar of crude oil...
16:16...there is an increase of 5.3 trillion.
16:19If we add the assumption again...
16:21...that the exchange rate is 16,000...
16:22...and the ICP is 100 dollars per barrel...
16:24...it adds up to the potential of additional subsidy...
16:27...and BBM compensation...
16:29...and LPG becomes 7.8 trillion per increase of 1 dollar per barrel.
16:34There are two assumptions.
16:37Exchange rate and ICP.
16:39In addition, the third one is the risk of over-quota.
16:42If the quota is high, let's say we assume it's moderate...
16:47...only 10 percent...
16:48...the potential of additional subsidy and BBM and LPG compensation...
16:51...is 194.7 trillion.
16:54It means it can increase 1 to 2 times...
16:57...the increase of subsidy and compensation.
16:59The problem is...
17:00...this year is very different from 2022.
17:03In 2022, our APBN is still allowed to increase the fiscal deficit...
17:10...by more than 3 percent.
17:11Therefore, the government in 2022...
17:13...is still allowed to increase subsidy and energy compensation...
17:17...up to 521 trillion.
17:20This year, our deficit is only limited to 3 percent.
17:26There is no more flexible space.
17:30It means we have to reduce spending...
17:32...both from energy subsidy and other expenses...
17:37...or increase state revenue.
17:40Okay. On one hand, we know that state revenue...
17:43...is okay.
17:44Some of our revenue targets...
17:46...exceed the target of the government.
17:49But the other posts that are being pursued...
17:52...are also not optimal.
17:54Is there a choice to increase the BBM price?
17:58Remembering that the government is still monitoring...
18:00...until mid-year.
18:01Mr. Abrahafi, please hold on to your answer.
18:03We'll be back in a moment.
18:04And, Mr. Mirza, we'll be right back...
18:06...after the next conversation.
18:10ECONOMY IN DEFINITE
18:25We'll be back in a moment...
18:26...after the next conversation...
18:27...with Mr. Abrahafi of Economy in Definite.
18:29Mr. Abrahafi, our conversation is getting more interesting.
18:31We know that the Ministry of Home Affairs...
18:33...also stated that the volume of imported crude oil...
18:35...and BBM has reached 840 thousand barrels...
18:39...per day.
18:41And the demand must be met by importing.
18:45The strength of BBM...
18:47...is the next question.
18:49Because there was a limit...
18:51...in the COVID-19 era.
18:52We can still do it.
18:53It's flexible.
18:54Now, it's more strict.
18:55Do you think this will be a challenge?
18:58Until mid-year, the government will review...
19:00...the price of crude oil globally.
19:03Mr. Abrahafi, please.
19:05First, the government will decide...
19:10...whether the price of BBM subsidized...
19:14...or LPG subsidized...
19:16...whether the price will be maintained...
19:19...until the end of the year...
19:21...or the government has to make adjustments...
19:24...regarding the price.
19:26Because there was a limited fiscal space...
19:28...to increase the allocation of subsidies...
19:30...and energy compensation.
19:31It depends on the price of crude oil...
19:34...and the value of the currency.
19:36Then, the consumption of BBM...
19:38...or LPG subsidized.
19:40Is there a risk of over-quota?
19:43Because there was a migration...
19:45...of non-subsidized consumers...
19:47...to subsidized products.
19:49Of course, this can be overcome by the government...
19:54...if the government is brave enough...
19:57...to make a firm decision.
19:59And, of course, it's measurable...
20:01...as long as there is an impact.
20:03The choice is to increase the price...
20:05...or to reduce consumption...
20:07...by making a limit.
20:09I think this limitation...
20:11...has been discussed...
20:12...or the government has promised...
20:13...that it will be done in the short term.
20:15For example, BBM subsidized...
20:17...LPG subsidized...
20:19...will be limited in the middle of this year.
20:22But the question is...
20:23...until now...
20:24...how the mechanism and criteria...
20:27...consumers who are still allowed...
20:29...to buy BBM subsidized...
20:31...or LPG subsidized...
20:33...and the community is still...
20:35...very...
20:37...not socialized...
20:39...how the mechanism...
20:40...they can acquire...
20:42...subsidized products...
20:44...then what are the criteria?
20:46I see that this is...
20:48...momentum for the government...
20:50...to change the subsidy mechanism...
20:52...to be targeted...
20:53...but with notes...
20:54...must be done carefully...
20:56...for example...
20:57...by carrying out transition period...
20:59...for example...
21:00...for the next 1-2 years...
21:02...the government can...
21:04...set...
21:05...consumers...
21:06...with group...
21:08...resil 1-6 or 7...
21:10...means the lower middle class...
21:12...can still enjoy...
21:13...BBM or LPG subsidized...
21:15...this is primarily...
21:17...to reduce the shock...
21:19...to the lower middle class...
21:21...then the results will be evaluated...
21:23...1-2 years from now...
21:25...how effective...
21:27...the closed BBM distribution...
21:29...then how big...
21:31...the quota of BBM and LPG subsidized...
21:33...can be saved...
21:35...this is the transition period...
21:37...I think this is the middle way...
21:39...for the government...
21:40...to dramatically change the policy...
21:42...secondly...
21:43...there are other solutions...
21:45...that I think...
21:46...should be considered by the government...
21:48...with...
21:49...the shock...
21:50...of using...
21:52...electric vehicles...
21:53...both electric cars and electric motorcycles...
21:55...why?
21:56...firstly...
21:57...by using electric vehicles...
21:58...it means...
21:59...the consumer will reduce...
22:01...BBM...
22:03...and will use...
22:05...domestic energy sources...
22:07...from electricity...
22:08...even though we know that...
22:10...our electricity supply last year...
22:12...still oversupply...
22:13...more or less 40%...
22:15...or 6 gigawatts...
22:16...it means there is...
22:18...substitution...
22:19...from BBM consumption...
22:21...to electricity consumption...
22:23...so on one hand...
22:24...reducing BBM import...
22:25...on the other hand...
22:26...this is able to reduce...
22:27...oversupply of electricity...
22:28...and in turn...
22:29...will also reduce...
22:31...subsidy and energy compensation...
22:33...through electricity consumption...
22:35...increasing...
22:36...this is what I see...
22:37...rarely...
22:38...discussed by the government...
22:40...how to deal with the problem...
22:42...our energy conservation...
22:43...in a holistic way...
22:45...not only talking about BBM...
22:47...but also talking about the electricity sector...
22:49...the next question is...
22:50...Mr. Abra...
22:51...where is the implementation...
22:52...because we know...
22:53...when the implementation is in the field...
22:55...so far...
22:56...it didn't work...
22:57...as far as I remember...
22:58...there are still many leaks here and there...
23:00...when the implementation...
23:01...the limitation is also...
23:03...not...
23:04...not hard...
23:05...as in the implementation...
23:06...as in the field...
23:08...actually the preparation...
23:09...to...
23:10...create...
23:12...the subsidy mechanism in the target...
23:13...has been done...
23:14...for several years...
23:15...for example...
23:16...with the government...
23:17...the government obliges...
23:18...Pertamina...
23:19...to do...
23:20...database...
23:21...consumer...
23:22...BBM and LPG subsidized...
23:23...with...
23:24...digital mechanism...
23:25...with the application of Pertamina...
23:27...that is actually...
23:28...as a first step...
23:29...where later from...
23:30...the database that is collected...
23:32...that should be able to be...
23:34...the basis of the government...
23:35...is it really...
23:36...distribution of BBM and LPG subsidized...
23:38...for a long time...
23:39...this is already the target...
23:40...and the second...
23:41...how effective...
23:42...to...
23:43...do the limitation...
23:44...although...
23:45...there is no strict ban...
23:46...PairPrice 1991-2014...
23:48...has not been revised...
23:49...and the nature is still humble...
23:51...this is still difficult...
23:52...and we know...
23:53...the last few times...
23:54...quite viral...
23:55...where there is an artist...
23:56...using LPG subsidized...
23:58...this is a momentum...
23:59...the awareness of the public...
24:00...that turns out...
24:01...indeed LPG...
24:02...3 kg is...
24:03...only...
24:04...deservedly used by the public...
24:06...what...
24:07...who are unable...
24:08...and then the second...
24:10...also...
24:11...how...
24:12...what...
24:13...the government through Pertamina...
24:15...has actually done...
24:16...the limitation effort...
24:18...by hiring...
24:19...agents and LPG distributors...
24:21...to subsidize...
24:22...to do the data...
24:23...so...
24:24...the end consumer...
24:26...buys the data...
24:27...this is still...
24:29...if I see...
24:30...still happening...
24:31...what is it called...
24:33...distribution...
24:34...so...
24:35...there are still agents or distributors who...
24:36...indeed make the note...
24:38...or the logbook...
24:39...in a way...
24:40...what is it called...
24:41...fictive...
24:42...not in a real way...
24:43...so...
24:44...the regulation...
24:45...on the paper...
24:46...is made...
24:47...revision of PR Press...
24:48...191...
24:49...is made...
24:50...then the clear criteria...
24:51...and the last but not least...
24:52...is...
24:53...socialization...
24:54...to the public...
24:55...how to access...
24:56...how to propose...
24:58...to be able to buy...
24:59...BBM...
25:00...or LPG subsidized...
25:01...and...
25:02...how the mechanism...
25:03...complaint...
25:04...and the public...
25:05...they still feel...
25:06...feel the need...
25:07...then...
25:08...will be...
25:09...assessed...
25:10...by the government...
25:11...whether...
25:12...the individual...
25:13...or the consumer...
25:14...still has the right...
25:15...then...
25:16...there must be...
25:17...there must be a complaint mechanism...
25:18...so this...
25:19...reduces...
25:20...social bias in the community...
25:21Okay, Mr. Brabrati...
25:22...there are still a lot of housework...
25:23...that needs to be done...
25:24...so the important thing is...
25:25...how...
25:26...the implementation...
25:27...again in the field...
25:28...every policy...
25:29...new rules...
25:30...done by the government...
25:31...to be able to limit...
25:32...use...
25:33...or...
25:34...maybe later...
25:35...there is the last effort...
25:36...price adjustment...
25:37...the important thing is...
25:38...public communication...
25:39...this must be...
25:40...correct...
25:41...maybe...
25:42...intensively done...
25:43...to the community...
25:44Okay, Mr. Brabrati...
25:45...thank you very much...
25:46...for the time and sharing...
25:47...that you have delivered...
25:48...happy to continue your activities...
25:49...again and...
25:50...good health, Mr. Brabrati.
25:51Thank you.
25:53Okay, viewers...
25:54...don't leave your seat...
25:55...because in a moment...
25:56...we will be back...
25:57...with another interesting topic...
25:58...that is...
25:59...the geopolitical conflict...
26:00...imagine...
26:01...Indonesia's trade surplus...
26:02...market review...
26:03...in the next segment.
26:11Transcription by ESO. Translation by —

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