Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia bulan April 2024 memutuskan untuk menaikkan tingkat suku bunga acuan BI Rate sebesar 25 BPS menjadi 6,25%. Kenaikan BI Rate untuk pertama kali setelah bertahan di level 6% selama 6 bulan terakhir ini, guna memperkuat stabilitas nilai tukar Rupiah dari dampak memburuknya risiko global, serta sebagai langkah pre-emptive dan forward looking untuk memastikan inflasi tetap dalam sasaran 2,5 plus minus 1% pada tahun 2024 dan 2025.
Bank Sentral ikut menaikkan suku bunga deposit facility sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 5,50% dan suku bunga lending facility sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 7%.
Bank Sentral juga terus memperkuat bauran kebijakan moneter, makroprudensial dan sistem pembayaran untuk menjaga stabilitas dan mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan, di tengah peningkatan ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global.
Bank Sentral ikut menaikkan suku bunga deposit facility sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 5,50% dan suku bunga lending facility sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 7%.
Bank Sentral juga terus memperkuat bauran kebijakan moneter, makroprudensial dan sistem pembayaran untuk menjaga stabilitas dan mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan, di tengah peningkatan ketidakpastian pasar keuangan global.
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00 [Music]
00:15 Hello viewers, straight from the IDX Channel Jakarta studio.
00:18 I am Prasetya Wibo, welcome back to Market Review.
00:20 Which will address the issues of Indonesia's economic movement.
00:23 Live streaming, you can watch it on IDXchannel.com.
00:25 And this time we will discuss the policy of Bank Central, Bank Indonesia.
00:29 Which eventually increased the BIRET rate by 6.25%.
00:35 Let's start the complete market review.
00:37 [Music]
00:45 Yes, viewers, after 6 months of resistance,
00:47 Bank Indonesia finally decided to increase the BIRET rate by 6.25% in April.
00:54 This step is to strengthen the stability of currency exchange value
00:57 based on the development of the economic conditions and global geopolitics that are getting hotter.
01:05 The Indonesian Government's Bank Council in April 2024
01:09 decided to increase the BIRET rate by 6.25%.
01:13 The increase in BIRET for the first time after holding at 6% for the last 6 months
01:19 is to strengthen the stability of the currency exchange value from the negative impact of global risks
01:24 as well as as a pre-emptive and forward-looking step
01:26 to ensure that inflation remains within the 2.5 plus -1% target in 2024 and 2025.
01:35 In addition, Bank Central also decided to increase the deposit rate of 25 basis points
01:41 to 5.50% and the landing rate of 25 basis points to 7%.
01:49 The Indonesian Government's Bank Council in April 2024
01:58 decided to increase the BIRET rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
02:09 The increase in the deposit rate of 25 basis points to 5.50%
02:17 and the landing rate of 25 basis points to 7%.
02:24 The increase in the BIRET rate for the first time after holding at 6.50% for the last 6 months
02:30 is to strengthen the stability of the currency exchange value from the negative impact of global risks
02:34 as well as as a pre-emptive and forward-looking step
02:38 to ensure that inflation remains within the 2.5 plus -1% target in 2024 and 2025.
02:50 The Indonesian Government also continued to strengthen the policy of the monetary policy,
02:55 macro-prudential and payment system to maintain stability and support sustainable economic growth
03:03 amid the increase in the uncertainty of the global financial market.
03:07 Jakarta, IDX Channel coverage team.
03:10 Yes, Mr. Mir, to discuss our theme this time,
03:14 the global pressure is getting heavier.
03:16 The BIRET rate has risen to 6.25%.
03:18 We have been connected via Zoom with Mr. Rian Kirianto,
03:21 Senior Economic Associate Faculty of the Indonesian LPPI Development Institute.
03:26 Good morning, Mr. Rian.
03:27 Okay, Mr. Mir, it seems that we are experiencing a disruption in communication via Zoom
03:30 with Mr. Rian Kirianto and we are still trying to contact him
03:35 and discuss the current economic conditions in the middle of the decision of the Indonesian Government.
03:42 The Indonesian Government has decided to increase the BIRET rate from 6% before,
03:48 to 0.25% or 25 basis points, to 6.25%.
03:53 Okay, Mr. Mir, we will try again in the next segment and we will be disconnected for a while.
04:01 Okay, Mr. Mir, we will try again in the next segment and we will be disconnected for a while.
04:06 Okay, Mr. Mir, thank you for still joining us
04:25 and we will try again to communicate with Mr. Rian Kirianto.
04:29 Hello, Mr. Rian.
04:31 Hello, good morning, Mr. Praas.
04:33 Thank you for your time, Mr. Rian.
04:35 We have been having a little disruption in communication.
04:38 We have just been informed that the Indonesian Bank's representative
04:41 has finally increased the BIRET rate from 6% to 6.25%.
04:47 The global geopolitical pressure that ultimately threatens the weakening of the exchange rate value.
04:53 According to the LPPI's own view, is this central bank's decision correct, Mr. Rian?
04:59 After I learned the narration from the Indonesian Bank's Governor, Mr. Periwarjo, yesterday afternoon,
05:11 the background or the background of why the Bunga Acuan or BIRET rate should not be so aggressive,
05:19 only as big as 25 basis points, from 6% to 6.25%,
05:25 is purely influenced by external factors that have pressured almost all strong currencies in the world
05:33 and more currencies in emerging markets, including Indonesian rupiah.
05:39 We also just learned there that year to date,
05:45 our depreciation of rupiah against US dollars over the last 4 months,
05:52 which is on the 23rd of April, our currency has depreciated by approximately 5.07%.
06:01 Of course, this is one of the warnings for the Indonesian Bank
06:05 to immediately take the right actions,
06:09 which is not only forward-looking and pre-emptive, but with the right dosage.
06:17 That's why the increase of 25 basis points yesterday is quite ideal, I think.
06:22 Don't be too aggressive.
06:24 Because we can't see what the outlook of the US dollar is like now,
06:32 because the phenomenon of strong US dollars is really happening all over the world.
06:39 Even if we compare our currency with some other countries' currencies,
06:45 our depreciation rate is relatively lower.
06:50 But we can't just leave it like that,
06:53 because it can have a bad psychological effect on the market.
06:58 So, my note on the increase of the PI rate of 25 basis points yesterday is indeed tactical,
07:04 although maybe we used to know the term,
07:08 "The Indonesian Bank is giving a little bit of a bitter taste."
07:12 But the taste is not that bitter.
07:14 It's just a kind of wake-up call that the situation is heading towards conditions that may not be good.
07:22 That's the highlight, Mr. Prasit.
07:24 So, how about the steps that have been taken by the Central Bank
07:28 regarding the movement of the Rupiah value if it has already been 6.25% down, Mr. Ian?
07:34 So, after I was dead,
07:38 the decision of the Indonesian Bank's Governor Council yesterday to increase the PI rate of 25 basis points
07:43 is a recipe or a course that may be a bit of a wrap.
07:50 Why do I say a wrap?
07:52 Because, of course, before the increase of the PI rate,
07:55 the Indonesian Bank has already done an assessment or a deep study from various perspectives
08:02 by using monetary operations instruments,
08:05 then by using market operations instruments,
08:11 then the provision of instruments such as the Indonesian Rupiah Certificate,
08:20 the Indonesian Rupiah Certificate, the Indonesian Bank's Valas Certificate, and so on, including the DNDF.
08:26 Maybe it doesn't seem to have given the effect that the Indonesian Bank has been driving.
08:33 That's why the policy that I say is quite a wrap is to increase the PI rate by 25 basis points.
08:41 So, again, this is an early warning
08:45 that the global situation is not just good
08:49 and is threatening almost all world currencies.
08:53 That's why in the Indonesian Bank's narration yesterday,
08:57 the alibi is a single mass price,
08:59 which is in the framework of stabilizing the value of the Indonesian Rupiah.
09:03 So, it's no longer called in the framework, for example, to control inflation.
09:08 Because so far our inflation is 3.0,
09:11 the monthly inflation is 3.1.
09:13 So, it's actually not that bad.
09:17 It's still in the corridor.
09:20 But on the side of the Indonesian Rupiah, it must be managed properly.
09:25 But what about other policies that have been imposed by the government and the Central Bank?
09:30 If this is a weapon of the unclean that has been released,
09:33 what about the other ammunition?
09:35 The export deficit, then what about our deficit reserves?
09:39 Is it not strong enough to withstand the pressure on the Indonesian Rupiah?
09:44 Because the factor is a combination,
09:47 I can say, maybe if I'm percentage,
09:50 the majority, 70-80% of our Rupiah deficit factors are global or external factors.
09:56 Whether it's a negative sentiment from the escalation of war in the Middle East,
10:00 which is then combined or brought up with the plan of the FED
10:07 which will require the Bunga Acuan tribe to be delayed,
10:10 so that the phenomenon we know as "buy for longer" occurs.
10:15 The US green inflation is still high, 3.4%.
10:18 That's what made the initial plan of the FED to decrease the Bunga Acuan tribe
10:24 or the FED Fund in June,
10:26 shifted to September.
10:28 There was even one foreign institution that I monitored,
10:32 in an extreme way,
10:34 even said, "Forget about the increase in the Bunga Acuan tribe this year."
10:38 "The possibility of the decrease in the Bunga Acuan tribe,
10:42 will never happen this year, but maybe it will be shifted to next year."
10:46 These kinds of tones gave one consideration
10:49 to other central banks, including our Bank Indonesia,
10:53 to also see a situation like that.
10:56 That's why the situation of "buy for longer" was then responded to,
10:59 one of them was the previous one,
11:01 the PI raised the Bunga Acuan tribe by 25 basis points.
11:05 Because the external factors were relatively uncontrollable.
11:09 I also said,
11:11 this is not a matter of our currency,
11:15 it can only be a kind of responsibility of the BI itself,
11:19 but it also has to be hand-on-hand or collaboration
11:25 with the government through the Ministry of the Interior
11:27 to give confidence to the public,
11:31 to the market players,
11:33 to the public sector.
11:35 For example, we used to discuss,
11:38 how to progress from the accumulation or accumulation of export profit,
11:43 export revenue deficit.
11:44 This is stopped, right?
11:45 This should be re-connected and more disciplined,
11:49 so that our exporters,
11:51 with pleasure, are willing to place
11:54 at least 30% of their export revenue deficit
11:57 into the domestic financial system,
11:59 so that it will help in the availability of our foreign currency.
12:02 - So far, it's not effective, Tarian. - Why?
12:05 So far, it's not effective at the HEE,
12:07 because it is expected to maintain the liquidity of the Rupiah,
12:11 and then the need for dollars too, right?
12:14 So far, there have been impressions,
12:18 that only Bank Indonesia is doing well,
12:21 by providing SRBI, SVBI,
12:25 or the Valas Bank Indonesia certificate,
12:27 which is intended to attract capital inflow,
12:31 so that foreign currency flows into the country,
12:34 strengthen our financial market,
12:36 strengthen our foreign reserve.
12:39 But we can't,
12:41 what is the term, if we use the word "sepak bulanya",
12:44 we have to use double striker,
12:46 we can't use single striker, right?
12:48 So, Bank Indonesia collaborates with the government,
12:52 through the institution,
12:54 so that we can work together,
12:56 how to give confidence to the market,
12:58 so that it won't panic,
13:00 so that some of our people,
13:02 whether they know it or not,
13:05 can both borrow or hunt US dollars.
13:09 That's it.
13:10 The weakness of Rupiah that has happened,
13:12 has now exceeded 16 thousand,
13:14 which continues.
13:16 Will later, Mr. Arian,
13:18 trigger a high-cost economy in Indonesia?
13:22 Economy? What?
13:25 High-cost economy, in the sense that there is a fish market.
13:28 So, this is it, Mr. Bras.
13:30 One of the countries that is exposed
13:33 by the very strong appreciation of US dollars,
13:37 are countries that have a position as net importers.
13:43 Unfortunately, Indonesia,
13:46 in the context of our oil consumption,
13:49 our position is as net importers.
13:52 So, with the increase in the BIT rate yesterday,
13:55 the expectation, the hope is,
13:58 some of the asset holders,
14:01 or the fund holders,
14:04 they don't convert their Rupiah assets to US dollars.
14:08 Why?
14:09 With the increase in the BIT rate yesterday,
14:11 the spread, or the difference,
14:13 or the difference between the flower tribes in America,
14:17 or in the global currency market,
14:19 with the flower tribes in Rupiah,
14:21 has become widespread.
14:22 Before, it was only 50 basis points,
14:24 now it's 70 basis points.
14:26 Between BIT rate and Fed Fund rate.
14:28 This gives a kind of sweetener,
14:31 or an incentive to the fund holders
14:34 to not convert their Rupiah to US dollars.
14:38 On the contrary,
14:39 maybe it will make the dollar more profitable.
14:43 Because, we can observe,
14:46 the dollar index is also increasing tremendously.
14:48 Last April,
14:50 I checked, the dollar index was at level 106.
14:55 It means, how strong is the US dollar,
14:59 compared to almost all of the world's currency,
15:01 except for Poncelin, I see.
15:04 Okay.
15:05 Mr. Ariyan, so, how?
15:07 Okay, the disparity is indeed,
15:08 from the level of the BIT rate flower tribe,
15:10 then the Fed Fund rate,
15:11 this is getting further, from 6.25% to 5.5%.
15:14 But, on the other hand, in the country,
15:17 can it take a new position of balance?
15:21 A new equilibrium, if we look at it,
15:24 it is expected to be an attractive force for investment,
15:27 entering Indonesia with a fairly high spread,
15:30 between the Indonesian and American flower tribes.
15:33 We will discuss it in the next segment.
15:35 We will take a break for a while.
15:36 And, viewers, stay tuned with us.
15:38 [Music]
15:54 You are still watching Market Review.
15:56 In the next segment, we will present data,
15:58 related to the movement of the BIT rate.
16:00 After being held for the last six months,
16:02 6% for the Indonesian Bank or BIT rate flower tribe,
16:06 from 21 September, 5.75%,
16:08 it rose from 19 October, 2023, 6%,
16:11 and it held until 20 March, 2024, 6%.
16:14 And, in April,
16:16 the Indonesian Bank flower tribe rate rose to 6.25%.
16:19 And, next, we look at the movement of inflation.
16:22 This is the domain of the central bank,
16:25 which must be maintained.
16:26 As well as the movement of inflation,
16:27 in terms of months and also years.
16:29 0.52% per month,
16:32 in March, 2024, for the movement of inflation,
16:34 while, in terms of years,
16:36 3.05% data from the BPS,
16:39 the Statistics Agency.
16:41 And, next, we will look at the movement of our currency exchange rate.
16:44 On April 2, it still stands at 15,935,
16:48 and this is up to April 5.
16:50 Then, April 16, up to April 23,
16:53 the currency is already at 16,244,
16:57 US dollars.
16:59 Let's continue again,
17:01 discussing with Mr. Rian Kirianto,
17:03 Senior Economist and Associate Faculty
17:05 from the Banking Development Institute.
17:08 Mr. Rian, we will continue again.
17:10 Talking about the disparity
17:13 between the Indonesian Bank flower tribe
17:15 and the Federal Reserve,
17:18 you see that this can be the expected drawback
17:21 to attract investment interest to Indonesia
17:23 with a fairly high spread.
17:24 But, how about the movement of the world of business in Indonesia
17:28 with the flower tribe that was raised to 25 basis points?
17:32 Indeed, the first thing that is expected
17:36 is that the Indonesian Bank will raise the flower tribe.
17:39 Even some of my colleagues said,
17:42 "Why is it only 25 basis points?"
17:44 Not at all, 50 basis points,
17:46 so that it can really maintain stability
17:50 from our currency.
17:51 I can only make an analysis,
17:53 this is a journey, not a short term.
17:56 The fight against the extraordinary US dollar strength
18:01 cannot be only with one dose of medicine,
18:05 but maybe more than once.
18:08 So, it's like taking medicine,
18:11 but with a small dose first.
18:13 The second thing that is expected
18:17 is the attitude or response of our financial institutions,
18:21 especially the banks.
18:23 Will they be tempted to adjust their flower tickets,
18:27 both in terms of deposits and loans or credit?
18:30 In my opinion, BI, in a very good way,
18:33 is smart, it balances.
18:35 On the one hand, the policy of the flower tribe channel is indeed raised,
18:39 so the tendency is a little bit of austerity,
18:42 or the term is hawkish policy.
18:44 But the policy that is in favor of austerity
18:47 is balanced with the policy on the macro-prudential side,
18:53 where through various instruments,
18:55 there is a RIM, there is a PLM, and so on.
18:58 BI provides incentives or incentives,
19:04 or stimulus to financial service providers,
19:07 especially banks,
19:09 to still not be tempted to do credit expansion,
19:13 especially for banks and also for financing institutions, of course,
19:17 so that the loan expansion does not be tempted.
19:20 Because BI provides various incentives or stimulus
19:24 to encourage banks not only to think about the flower tribe,
19:29 but also to encourage banks to continue to expand.
19:31 Because even if it is in a hawkish way, the RIM will increase.
19:33 But if the banks in their credit activities
19:39 are in accordance with the policy corridor of BI,
19:42 then BI will provide incentives
19:44 without having to disturb or reduce the liquidity of those banks.
19:48 This is the speech or the service of our bankers
19:53 to make the most of the policy provisions provided by BI,
20:01 both through the BI RIM instrument and the macro-prudential instrument.
20:05 Maybe what needs to be spilt off
20:09 is the macro-prudential policy.
20:12 Because I see a lot of incentives
20:15 provided by the Indonesian Bank for our banks.
20:18 Okay, speaking of bank loan expansion,
20:21 and this is certainly affected by the sensitive sectors,
20:24 with the movement of the flower tribe,
20:26 when there is automotive there, property there,
20:29 does it ultimately create a position for businessmen in a number of sectors
20:34 is getting more and more narrowed
20:36 with the lack of purchasing power of the people today.
20:39 Then there is an increase in the loan flow rate.
20:43 Okay, so by comparing the possibility factors
20:48 of the flow of the flower tribe to the banking sector,
20:51 which may be the businessmen in the automotive sector
20:55 or the property sector,
20:57 whose majority of the components are raw material,
21:01 or the finishing goods,
21:04 or the half-finished goods are very dependent on imports.
21:10 So they have to recalculate or review the structure of the cost.
21:16 Because of that, with a strong dollar appreciation,
21:20 while they have to import,
21:22 of course when they have to provide the funds in rupiah,
21:26 a larger budget is needed than usual.
21:31 When the rupiah is 15,000, they may not be so stressed.
21:35 But when our rupiah weakens to 16,000,
21:40 of course the US dollar account for the rupiah becomes larger.
21:44 This is what our developers and entrepreneurs
21:49 in the automotive sector have to recalculate
21:53 so that they don't experience a loss
21:58 due to the exchange rate difference or a significant amount of foreclosures.
22:03 Meanwhile, for some of our exporters or importers
22:08 who buy foreign currency,
22:10 but they also do export activities,
22:13 maybe the pressure is not relatively big.
22:16 Because there will be a square position
22:20 where the dollar needs are converted with the US dollar receipt.
22:25 Because the transaction base is probably in the US dollar.
22:28 This is what we know as natural hedging.
22:31 But not all corporations use that instrument.
22:35 Therefore, private entrepreneurs
22:38 and those from state-owned enterprises,
22:41 have to face this situation.
22:43 Even if it's necessary, depending on the high import component,
22:47 maybe they have to do some kind of value protection or hedging.
22:51 So that the potential loss can be mitigated,
22:57 can be suppressed as little as possible.
23:00 Okay. And this is from the weakness of the rupiah value
23:02 that happened when you just entered the first quarter.
23:06 Are you ready with the business plan that they have done?
23:09 What strategy do they have to do?
23:12 So that the pressure does not take up a position,
23:15 they have to stop and hold on to the expansion.
23:18 In short, sir.
23:19 Yes. I think, both in the financial sector and the yield sector,
23:24 with this really uncontrollable situation,
23:27 because of the global factor,
23:29 maybe they have to review their business plan again this year.
23:33 Because the assumptions are relatively dramatic.
23:38 For example, in our OPM assumption, if I'm not mistaken,
23:42 the 1 dollar assumption is equivalent to 15,000.
23:46 On average, in one year.
23:48 But the question is, will that happen?
23:52 With the current position,
23:54 our rupiah depreciation is almost 5.5%.
24:01 Of course, there must be a recalculation of the business plan.
24:04 So that the target is really precise.
24:09 This is important.
24:10 That's why the assessment is about the development of the leading economic indicator,
24:16 both in Indonesia and globally.
24:18 Okay. That's it.
24:19 Related to the condition of the BIR rate,
24:22 when it rises to 6.25%, it seems that a lot of adjustments need to be made.
24:25 Both by the government, collaboration,
24:28 the implementation of fiscal monetary policy,
24:30 and then also for the business world in Indonesia.
24:32 Thank you very much, Farian, for your time and analysis.
24:35 You're welcome, sir. Thank you.
24:36 Good luck with your activities. Stay healthy, Farian.
24:39 Viewers, don't leave your seat.
24:42 Because we'll be back with another interesting topic,
24:45 where the business world and the establishment of Prabowo Gibraltar as the winner.
24:50 [Music]
25:03 [Music]