AccuWeather's Jon Porter shows the warm, moist air around the central Plains, perfect factors for upcoming storms and possible tornadoes.
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00:00 Let's bring in our chief meteorologist John Porter.
00:02 And you know, John, let's let's take it one by one.
00:05 You have the ingredients.
00:06 The first ingredient you need it generally on the warm side.
00:10 You sure do.
00:11 And here is that set up plenty of warm air
00:13 across the central plains.
00:15 And not only is it warm, it's increasingly moist.
00:19 Take a look at these dew points that
00:21 are in the upper 60s and low 70s.
00:23 And that warm, moist air is being
00:25 drawn north by gusty winds from the south
00:28 right into the plains.
00:29 This is the air that's prime for severe thunderstorm
00:32 and tornado development.
00:33 You know, John, you and I had a famous Penn State professor,
00:37 Dr. Michael Fritsch.
00:39 And he always talked about when you analyze the dew point
00:41 temperature, when you analyze the wind, it always points.
00:45 It always points to where the severe weather
00:48 is going to start.
00:49 And this is a classic example of that.
00:51 Look at that, that tongue of higher moisture air
00:56 in the low levels coming right up into Kansas, Oklahoma,
00:59 and toward the Red River.
01:00 That's why we're so concerned about this area.
01:03 And the problem with today, Bernie,
01:04 is if you were to look at a meteorology
01:06 textbook about how do we get a tornado
01:08 outbreak in the southern plains, it's this set up today.
01:12 Yeah, let's talk about that.
01:13 So we have the warmth and humidity,
01:15 but you need a trigger.
01:16 Well, you've got this strong upper low, John.
01:18 And even on the water vapor loop,
01:20 look how fast things are moving on the southern tail of that
01:23 across Arizona and New Mexico.
01:25 My eye is immediately caught to that, Bernie.
01:27 Here's that spin associated with that upper low.
01:30 But watch how quick the clouds are moving across New
01:33 Mexico into West Texas.
01:35 This is that acceleration jet stream disturbance
01:38 that's going to be moving out into the plains.
01:41 That's the trigger that's going to ignite this whole set up
01:44 here later today.
01:45 And the energy map, a couple of things to point out here,
01:48 John, not only what we're going to be looking at as the red,
01:51 but I'm going to stop this here.
01:52 Let's talk about diffluence, what that is,
01:56 and how that is important.
01:58 I walked the winds around this area of this upper level
02:02 low pressure area.
02:03 They're going to be coming around just like this.
02:05 And see how the air is spreading out here across.
02:09 It's fanning out across the plain states.
02:11 And when you see that type of configuration,
02:13 that means that the air is going to be lifted quite rapidly deep
02:17 into the atmosphere, leading to the development
02:20 of these severe thunderstorms.
02:22 And this is one of those main things
02:23 that you just look back as with all the experience
02:26 of accuweather meteorologists.
02:27 We look at that and we say, this is a dangerous setup.
02:31 Yeah, let's clear that, John.
02:33 That's the other thing.
02:34 Watch that energy then.
02:35 A lot of red showing up as well as we head
02:38 toward the afternoon and evening.
02:40 Sure does.
02:41 That shows you the intensity of this jet stream disturbance,
02:45 this upper level low.
02:46 Also, why we think it's going to be more of a line
02:49 across portions of Kansas.
02:51 And the thunderstorms could be more widely separated,
02:53 but still very potent across Oklahoma.
02:57 And that's where we're especially concerned about
02:59 these long track and particularly intense tornadoes.
03:02 All right, John, let's take a look at the future radar
03:04 here as we go forward here.
03:06 There we go about mid-afternoon, the convection.
03:08 I'm going to let this play.
03:10 We're going to stop this late afternoon and evening.
03:12 And there's that destructive line.
03:15 There it is.
03:16 And that's how it's setting up.
03:17 Notice it's 7 PM Central.
03:19 This is the kind of thing, if you
03:20 live in Wichita or Oklahoma City or anywhere
03:23 along that I-35 corridor, know where
03:26 you are going to be in a safe spot
03:28 to ride out the storm if a tornado or severe thunderstorm
03:32 threatens your community later.
03:34 So you want to get there early this afternoon
03:37 and stay there if you can.
03:39 You don't want to be driving around during this situation
03:42 and then watch the whole situation congeals
03:44 into a squall line of severe thunderstorms.
03:46 This may have embedded tornadoes.
03:48 It's going to race into eastern Kansas, southeastern Oklahoma,
03:51 and toward Missouri, western Missouri,
03:54 and then down even toward Bentonville, Arkansas
03:56 before everything shifts north and east into tomorrow morning.
04:00 Still a damaging wind concern near Chicago first thing
04:03 tomorrow.
04:04 And let's take a look at the risk map, John.
04:05 And of course, it was this morning at 6 o'clock.
04:08 The decision was made.
04:09 We were all in map discussion about that extreme risk.
04:13 For someone that is the chief of the meteorology department
04:17 here at AccuWeather, that extreme risk is very rare.
04:22 We only do this, Bernie, once or twice a year.
04:25 It's our designation for the most significant concerns
04:29 about widespread and intense severe thunderstorms
04:32 and tornadoes.
04:33 And notice I've got our spotlight tool right
04:35 on the area, I-35 corridor from Wichita to Oklahoma City.
04:39 But don't let your guard down, of course, anywhere else
04:42 across the central plains.
04:44 This is going to be a widespread severe weather event.
04:47 And we want people to be prepared, not scared.
04:50 Know where you can seek safe shelter.
04:52 And I want to urge you, if you have people,
04:54 if you have family members in this area, give them a call.
04:57 Send them a text message.
04:58 Let them know.
04:59 It truly can save their life.
05:01 Ask them to download the AccuWeather app.
05:02 Turn on push notifications.
05:04 We'll keep you updated here and on the AccuWeather network.
05:06 AccuWeather chief meteorologist John Porter.
05:09 Again, John, thanks for joining us this morning.