Arsenal's still in the hunt for the Premier League title, but everybody beats The Blades this season. Likewise, dominant performances against West Ham, Newcastle, and Liverpool were more a result of their opponents just not being at their best. Or so people say.
Adam Clery takes a look at Arsenal's latest run and thinks it's time to start giving Mikel Arteta and his side the respect they deserve.
Adam Clery takes a look at Arsenal's latest run and thinks it's time to start giving Mikel Arteta and his side the respect they deserve.
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00:00 *ding*
00:02 Alright, so this was the Arsenal side you got against Sheffield United last night
00:05 and to quote Tom York, "No alarms and no surprises."
00:09 Now just before we get into all of this, if you are watching this video and you are an Arsenal fan,
00:13 I, me personally, have just returned from a trip to Lake Como
00:16 and oh, it's a really hard life where amongst other things, we sat down with Cesc Fabregas.
00:22 Not to jinx it before I edit it, but it's probably the single best thing we've ever made
00:26 and he is a massive, massive part of the story we're trying to tell over there.
00:29 So, if you don't want to miss that, please do consider subscribing to us here on 442
00:33 and you'll see it when it exists.
00:35 Anyway though, Arsenal versus Sheffield United, this was the team and they absolutely batted them.
00:40 They were 5-0 up inside 38 minutes, had 81% of the ball
00:45 and denied Sheffield United so much as a single shot on target.
00:49 Now while I'm not saying that people aren't praising this Arsenal side for the things they're doing well,
00:54 there was still an undertone last night in all the coverage and that everything has been published today
00:58 that, alright, that's good, but it is only Sheffield United.
01:02 But it's not only Sheffield United, it's every single Premier League game that Arsenal have played this year.
01:07 Like if we measure their dominance in that game last night in terms of the amount of chances
01:11 that the opposition were able to have and how good those chances were,
01:14 then you can see they let Sheffield United have absolutely nothing.
01:18 But then if we just flesh this right out to the start of the year,
01:22 this is a staggering, staggering consistency.
01:25 There's a whopping three shots on target for both Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest right at the start of the year,
01:30 but since then it's become an increasingly meagre feast.
01:33 And yes, these numbers aren't exactly astonishing when they're next to names like Burnley or Sheffield United,
01:38 but just take Newcastle and West Ham.
01:40 They're two teams in the hunt for European football this season and while they've been up and down,
01:45 they certainly are capable of scoring goals.
01:48 And I presume you don't need me to tell you that Liverpool are also quite good
01:51 and just nobody ever restricts them to that few chances or that few good chances ever.
01:56 And I won't dwell on this too long because I know a lot of people don't care about xG
02:00 and think it's a bit of a weird stat,
02:01 but it is useful for measuring like quality of chance,
02:04 although obviously it guarantees you absolutely nothing.
02:06 Liverpool this season average about 2.2, 2.3 xG every single game.
02:12 They're always going to create enough chances to get over two goals.
02:16 Played Arsenal in that game, they made chances worth 0.3 xG.
02:21 Like I can see why people were like, "Oh, really bad day at the office for Jurgen Klopp there."
02:25 But when Arsenal do this to every team they play,
02:29 you've got to start to look at that and think,
02:31 "Actually, it's not that they're just having a bad game,
02:34 it's that they're being made to have a bad game."
02:36 So that then does beg the question,
02:38 how do Arsenal make all these teams have a bad game?
02:42 And the answer is in loads of different ways.
02:46 Mikhail Arteta is changing this team's approach on an almost game-by-game basis
02:50 and getting it absolutely bang on.
02:53 So I'll show you what I mean, right?
02:54 This is Arsenal's average positions across the 90 minutes against Sheffield United,
02:58 and you can see pretty much a team in total dominance of that match.
03:02 They're playing almost the entire game in the opposition's half,
03:05 and if you look over this side, you can see Martinelli,
03:07 Rice, Havertz, and even Odegaard over here are all pushed really far forward.
03:12 And then there's Bakayo Saka, who was pretty much just on holiday
03:16 in this part of the pitch against their left back.
03:18 It was incredibly dominant, they absolutely battered them with it,
03:20 but you can see just by looking at it,
03:22 it's like a picture-perfect example of a 4-3-3 with a striker
03:26 who sort of drops away from the front line to let everybody else run into that space.
03:30 Good job, but this is the team's average positions against Newcastle United,
03:34 and despite it being the exact same players,
03:36 it's no longer a picture-perfect 4-3-3.
03:39 There's something very different going on.
03:40 They're still pushed up really high,
03:42 we've got Jorginho in sort of the pivot role here,
03:44 but Saka's actually playing a lot more in field,
03:47 and Odegaard seems to be getting into the space that's leaving.
03:50 In fact, between Odegaard, Rice, and Havertz,
03:52 they all seem to be playing in this one pocket of space,
03:55 almost like there was a big gap between Newcastle's midfield and defence
03:58 that they all thought they needed to be in.
04:00 If you go back and you watch how Arsenal were creating chances in those two games,
04:03 it tells that kind of story,
04:05 like this is the opening goal against Sheffield United.
04:08 You can see the 2-8s are acting as runners,
04:10 supporting the centre forward,
04:11 there's width being provided by the wide attack,
04:13 and then you've got the rest of the defence pushed right up.
04:15 Because of the lack of space in behind,
04:17 they're all pretty much on a direct line here,
04:19 and what they're going to do is use Jorginho,
04:21 who's sitting off all of them,
04:22 to sort of bounce a pass into the little bit of space.
04:25 And that is exactly what they do.
04:26 Saka passes Jorginho, he gets him in,
04:28 and then they all go from being on this same line.
04:31 You probably have to watch this several times looped over and over,
04:34 but the three players then in the box,
04:36 who are potentially an option here,
04:37 all make very different movements.
04:39 Martin Erdegaard faints to go towards the near post,
04:42 but then pulls off to the penalty spot for a cutback.
04:44 Declan Rice goes across his marker,
04:46 trying to get in at the near post,
04:47 and Kai Havertz dummies a little run and then goes to the back.
04:51 Do we think, my friends,
04:52 that of the three options those three players had in that scenario,
04:56 it is just a coincidence that they all happened to pick a different one?
05:00 But then if you go back to the Newcastle game,
05:01 you don't see that shape at all,
05:03 because Newcastle were playing far further up the pitch,
05:05 there was no need to press everybody up.
05:06 So instead, we've got Erdegaard here, Havertz here, and Rice here,
05:11 sitting off Newcastle's defensive line,
05:12 but right behind their midfielders.
05:14 So instead of waiting for that little bounce pass
05:16 to try and get them in behind Newcastle's defence,
05:18 they're waiting for the midfield to try and press up onto him here,
05:22 or White here, or Kivio here,
05:24 so they could get in that gap instead.
05:26 But to quote Brian Butterfield,
05:28 that's still not all.
05:31 This is the average positions against Sheffield United.
05:33 Yep, good, you've seen that.
05:34 This is the average positions against Newcastle United.
05:36 Yep, good, you've seen that.
05:37 And this, this is the average positions against Liverpool.
05:42 Again, if you are a subscriber to this channel,
05:44 you've heard me use the term "box midfield"
05:46 so many times over the past 12 months.
05:47 I think I'm going to go insane every time I say it,
05:50 but there is a picture-perfect box midfield in this game.
05:54 And barring one change, which was Zinchenko for Kivio,
05:57 it is the exact same starting XI again.
06:00 And this time, they're trying to get men around the ball
06:03 in the centre of the pitch
06:04 to offset Liverpool's ability to keep possession.
06:07 And look, here it is live and in living colour.
06:09 Sometimes they were having Havertz drop back
06:11 to sort of form the point of it with Odegaard,
06:12 or sometimes they were having White invert
06:14 from the right-hand side,
06:15 so Havertz could stay high and they could build it that way.
06:18 But this was something they could just do on a whim.
06:21 So far in 2024, Arsenal have turned up
06:25 to every single Premier League game
06:27 knowing exactly what they need to do
06:29 to maximise their chances of getting a good result
06:32 and doing it really effectively.
06:34 And they are doing it so effectively
06:36 that like not only have they scored,
06:39 I want to say 31 goals in seven matches,
06:42 they have limited their opponents to two goals
06:46 from 2.1xG.
06:49 Just for comparison here, the next lowest xG
06:52 over the same number of games, right,
06:54 is unsurprisingly Manchester City.
06:56 And that is over 7xG.
06:59 But why does this xG stuff matter so much?
07:02 Like I never normally talk about it in videos
07:04 because I know some people don't like it as a stat
07:06 and some people do.
07:06 Why am I focusing on it here?
07:08 Well, it's because that single stat,
07:11 more than I think any other single bit of information,
07:13 suggests to me that Arsenal might actually win this league.
07:18 So look, if you're not an xG person, right,
07:20 just go with me on this for a couple of minutes.
07:22 This is the xG against table in the Premier League,
07:25 the very top of it.
07:26 Obviously, no surprise whatsoever, Liverpool,
07:28 Manchester City and Arsenal,
07:29 the three best teams by a mile in this division,
07:32 have the lowest xG conceded,
07:33 both in total and per 90 minutes, this season.
07:36 But even though all three of those numbers
07:38 are incredibly good
07:39 and probably good enough to win you a Premier League,
07:41 Arsenal's is significantly better
07:44 than both Liverpool's and Man City's.
07:46 Like it's nearly half what Liverpool's is.
07:47 And of course, while that is just a made up stat
07:50 that is completely for nerds, I understand,
07:52 it's borne out in the actual evidence as well
07:54 because Arsenal have conceded the fewest number of goals.
07:57 Therefore, and I am going somewhere with this,
07:59 if you put those two bits of information together,
08:01 you can confidently say that Arsenal probably
08:03 are the best defensive team in this league.
08:05 They're controlling games so well
08:07 that it's not just that their opponents
08:09 keep missing chances and they're getting let off,
08:12 they're not even letting them have good chances full stop.
08:15 So they're not conceding.
08:16 Now this might look a little bit crowded and busy,
08:18 but I'm just going to bring up
08:19 the final Premier League standings
08:21 from like quite a lot of recent years.
08:23 And I'm just going to highlight here,
08:25 one team from every season.
08:27 Now, okay, you're looking at that and you're going,
08:29 "Adam, you've just simply highlighted
08:30 the Premier League champions from all of those seasons."
08:33 And yes, that is true.
08:34 I have done that.
08:35 But what I've also highlighted here
08:37 is the team that conceded the fewest number of goals.
08:41 Not necessarily the team that scored
08:42 the most number of goals.
08:44 You will note here in particular,
08:45 Man City actually outscored Liverpool by nearly 20 goals
08:49 and still didn't win the league that year.
08:51 Across all of these seasons,
08:53 the team that has defended best,
08:55 that has been able to restrict their opponent
08:57 to the fewest number of chances,
08:59 has been the team that has won the league.
09:01 And right now, it isn't that Arsenal are slightly better
09:04 than Liverpool or Manchester City at doing this,
09:06 or that they're just shading them on these numbers.
09:08 They are miles out in front at doing this.
09:11 And just if I might editorialise slightly here,
09:13 I'm not an Arsenal fan by any stretch of the imagination.
09:16 It makes no difference to me whatsoever,
09:18 whether it's them or it's Liverpool or Manchester City.
09:20 I both like and dislike those clubs very equally.
09:23 But I was watching that Sheffield United game
09:26 and the way they just exploded out of the traps
09:28 in the first couple of minutes,
09:29 how they were just unrelenting,
09:31 how they were getting goals from all areas of the pitch,
09:33 how they had so many different options,
09:35 so many different ideas
09:36 for how they were going to hurt this side.
09:38 And I just thought,
09:38 "Surely, shoot, in a fair and just universe,
09:42 surely that is the team that wins a league."
09:45 But anyway, that's enough from me.
09:46 I'm sure you've got plenty of other things
09:47 to be getting on with today.
09:48 If you did enjoy this video in any way, shape or form,
09:51 please do consider subscribing to us here on 442.
09:53 It's the one metric that is just really, really important for us.
09:56 So if you would like to watch any of this in future,
09:58 please do.
09:59 Elsewhere, you get me on all of the socials @adamcleary,
10:03 C-L-E-R-Y,
10:03 the 442 socials are in the corner of the video.
10:05 This is the old magazine now.
10:08 I have to go get the new one.
10:09 It's got Trent Alexander-Arnold on the cover
10:10 and is dead good, if I do say so myself.
10:12 So go and buy either of those
10:14 if you spot them when you're out and about.
10:16 Anyway, as ever, thank you very much for watching.
10:18 Sincere apologies to Arsenal fans
10:20 for the fact I have now almost certainly
10:22 put some kind of Vicious Curse on them
10:24 that means the next three games
10:25 are going to be boring nil-nils.
10:28 Sorry about that, but until next time,
10:30 I just- I just-
10:32 I just think they can do it
10:33 and I would just like them to do it.
10:35 And that's my truth.