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00:00We have Bhavin Mehta of Daulat Capital and Ruchit Jain of Fivepesa who is joining us
00:04on the show.
00:05Good morning to both of you.
00:06Thank you so much for joining in.
00:07Bhavin, let me come to you first.
00:10Your assessment on the Nifty, how are you trading this?
00:13Good morning, Agam.
00:16So yes, we have seen very good amount of drawdown recently, particularly in a broader market
00:22indices.
00:23But something to note here is that last series we had a very strong rally in the broader
00:29market indices, particularly the small cap index, which was up close to about 11%.
00:37Today, I mean, this is the third time since November that we are looking at Nifty.
00:49All right.
00:51I think we have a technical glitch when it comes to Bhavin.
00:55We'll try and sort that out.
00:58In the meantime, let me go across to Ruchit as well.
01:00Ruchit, welcome to the show.
01:02You know, the same question for you, your assessment of the Nifty, what are you doing
01:05here?
01:06Very good.
01:07Good morning, Agam.
01:08Well, the short term trend remains a little bit volatile that we have seen in the last
01:12few trading sessions.
01:13The rise in the India Wix and correction in the markets clearly indicates this nervousness
01:17is there on the street.
01:19And I think that could continue for a while and Nifty could move towards 22,000 to 21,900,
01:26which is a good support over there.
01:28So as of now, the momentum is not that positive to take any contra buy trades on the index
01:32front here.
01:33So I think it remains a sell on rise for the near term and till we conquer again 22,500,
01:39I think the pullback moves will get sold into it.
01:42You can clearly see from the open interest front as well.
01:46Rise in open interest has been seen in Nifty and today's selling as well as in yesterday's
01:50session where the price correction has been supported by increase in open interest, which
01:54indicates a short build up.
01:56So I think sell on rise strategy should be there from a very short term perspective.
01:5922,000 to 21,900 is the range that we are expecting that would act as a support.
02:05Okay.
02:06That's as far as the Nifty is concerned, Richard, but how would you address the Bank Nifty right
02:10now?
02:11Well, I think a bit of volatility should be expected there too.
02:15In fact, if you look at individual components today, then the heavyweights from the banking
02:19space I have seen some short formations and underperforming.
02:24And support is around that 47,900 mark.
02:26So I think we are right now around that support level only.
02:29So today's second half would be very crucial.
02:31And of course, being an expiry day, there could be some volatile moves on both the sides.
02:35So I think one should not create fresh short formations here, considering that we are near
02:40that support level, but the view remains the same because the data still indicates that
02:44short formations are there in the Bank Nifty index too.
02:46And in case if we see any kind of pullback, we are likely to see selling pressure at higher
02:50levels.
02:51So at 47,900, we can see levels of 47,700 followed by 47,500 range.
03:01And losing out on 48,000 is something that would trouble at least some of the participants
03:08in the market for all those who are long.
03:10But with that, let's shift focus to a handful of stocks again.
03:16Let's talk about what's really buzzing in trade, what's where we are seeing enough amount
03:21of traction in terms of gains and losses.
03:25And in terms of, well, your change in open interest, your large changes in open interest,
03:31well, we do have Pedialyte, which is down 5%, reacting to earnings.
03:35Voltas has recovered from day's lows.
03:38In the morning, it was down around 8%.
03:40But it does seem like it's turned out to be a very disappointing quarter for Voltas, especially
03:45given the expectation of hot summers.
03:47It really hasn't been able to pull through when it comes to its top line or bottom line,
03:52for that matter.
03:53Top line, there were a lot of expectations, but it was a disappointment coming through.
03:58We have Max Financial, on the other hand, which is advancing, and we have gains in Marico
04:04as well.
04:05Marico, of course, along with the FMCG pack, looking at some gains lately.
04:09And Innocent Bank, on the other hand, also looking at shorts along with the rest of the
04:13banking pack.
04:14I believe we do have Bhavin back with us.
04:16So before we talk about stocks, let's get in Bhavin's view here.
04:20Bhavin, you were making the point on the Nifty, but if you could also add in and tell us about
04:26how you're seeing things in the Bank Nifty.
04:28I will tell you in a bit.
04:31I believe there is some issue with the...
04:33Right, Bhavin, I'm wondering if my voice is reaching to you.
04:38My question was with the Nifty and the Bank Nifty.
04:41Yeah.
04:43So in Bank Nifty, we continue to see Utrecht trying to hold on to 48,000 strike.
04:50It will be very crucial for Bank Nifty to hold on to this level.
04:53Till the time it holds on to this level, there is no major unwind at this particular strike
04:59price.
05:00There is a possibility that towards the end, we may see a pullback rally.
05:05However, it all depends on volatility index.
05:08We need volatility index to move lower for any significant retracement on the indices,
05:15particularly going forward.
05:17Okay.
05:18So that's your overall assessment when it comes to the indices.
05:23As I was talking about stocks, I had already addressed those stocks which are seeing an
05:27increase in open interest.
05:28Let's pull up the list where we are seeing potential unwind at the moment and where there
05:33is a significant decline in open interest as far as the futures are concerned.
05:38So that's your list there.
05:39Now, we have a bout of short covering, very mild for Gujarat Gas and Naveen Florin.
05:45And United Breweries is looking at significant long unwinding even as the underlying declines
05:50by 2%, as is the case for Siemens.
05:54The underlying is down by around 1% in cash markets.
05:57PNB, I wouldn't really call it long unwinding because the cash market spot price is really
06:03just about marginally in the red.
06:06Let's head across to our experts and see what they have in store in terms of stocks that
06:11are on your radar.
06:12So, Richard, coming back to you, what's looking good to you?
06:16I think certain defensive space could show some outperformance.
06:21Yesterday, we witnessed some outperformance from the FMCG space.
06:26Selective IT stocks were doing better.
06:27Pharma would be another space where these are some of the sectors which could do well
06:32in the volatile or some corrective phases.
06:34Landmark Pharma within the pharma space would be our pick over here.
06:38Last few trading sessions, the stock has seen a price decline, but there was no significant
06:42volumes in the price dip.
06:44And the stock is now trading around its 40 EMA support.
06:47So the risk reward is favorable to take some contract rates over here.
06:50One can go long with stoploss below 997 for protection targets of 1080.
06:55And AU Small Finance Bank is the stock which is on the short side.
07:00So recent pullback move, the stock witnessed resistance around its 100-day exponential
07:04moving average.
07:05So typically, the stock is trading in a broad range of 600-650 in last few trading sessions.
07:11So we believe that the stock could test the lower end of the range of 600 again.
07:14So one can go short on some pullback moves.
07:17The stock in last half an hour has seen some correction.
07:19If you get some pullback around 625-627, then one can go short with stoploss below 636 and
07:26targets would be around 600.
07:28Okay.
07:29Those are some of the scores coming in from Richard.
07:32Bhavin, stocks on your radar this morning?
07:34Yeah.
07:35So there are two stocks which I am watching out for.
07:39One is TCS.
07:40So going into election outcome, my sense is that playing defensive ideally makes sense.
07:47Do not want a huge exposure into the high beta space.
07:52So this particular stock over last three trading sessions has shown a good amount of resilience.
07:59My sense is that eventually the stock is trying to close the gap that it has created earlier.
08:04So looking out to buy this particular stock with the stoploss of 3870 for target price
08:10of 4100-4150 on upside.
08:13Second stock on my radar will be Atul.
08:17So if you look at this particular stock, it has been consolidating in a very narrow range
08:22and finally is able to close above both the short term average, 20 as well as 50 day exponential
08:29moving average.
08:30One can look to buy this stock with the stoploss of 6000.
08:33My positional target on this one will be closer to 6400-6500 on this day.
08:40Some interesting calls coming in from our experts.
08:43But on that note, we are out of time on this particular segment.
08:46So I'm going to take a moment to thank both Bhavin and Ruchit for joining us and taking
08:50us through their views on the markets and of course, handling us with a handful of trading ideas.