Biden Walking 'Very Fine Line' By Vowing To Withhold Weapons If Israel Invades Rafah: Analyst

4 months ago

Eurasia Group Analyst Gregory Brew joined Brittany Lewis on 'Forbes Newsroom' to discuss the Israel-Hamas war and President Joe Biden's recent comments threatening to withhold weapons and artillery for Israel to use in Rafah should they invade the city.

Read the full story on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2024/05/08/biden-says-im-not-supplying-the-weapons-if-israel-attacks-rafah/

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Transcript

00:00 Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes breaking news. Joining me now is Gregory Brew,

00:07 analyst with Eurasia Group. Gregory, thank you so much for joining me once again.

00:11 Thanks so much for having me back on.

00:13 This week passed the seven month mark from the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war. And

00:19 I want to talk about where we are right now. Hamas announced it accepted a ceasefire proposal

00:24 from Israel, and Israel said that the agreement was, quote, "far from meeting Israel's core

00:29 demands." Where are we in terms of this conflict and in terms of a potential ceasefire?

00:35 Well, really over the last week, there have been two big questions. The first question

00:40 was, will there be a ceasefire? In other words, will Israel and Hamas agree to a deal that

00:45 ends the fighting for a period of several weeks that allows the release of hostages

00:50 that Hamas have been holding since October 7th, and that brings an end to the fighting

00:53 in Gaza? The second question, which is, of course, related to the first question, is

00:58 would Israel begin an offensive operation in Rafa? This, of course, is the city at the

01:03 southern tip of Gaza. It is where most of the Gaza population is currently located.

01:08 Over a million people have been taking shelter in Rafa over the last several months. But

01:12 it is also where Hamas remains in a position. There are at least four battalions of Hamas

01:17 fighters present in Rafa. There is a number, there are a number of tunnels present in the

01:22 town. And Israel has made it very clear that it does not consider its operation in Gaza

01:26 complete until it is able to move into Rafa. So over the last 48 hours, we've seen developments

01:32 on both of these fronts. As far as the Rafa operation goes, Israel has begun the operation.

01:37 There have been airstrikes against Hamas targets in the city. There have been reports of Israeli

01:42 ground troops moving into the city as well, even though there remain large numbers of

01:46 civilians present. On the ceasefire talks, we seem to have hit yet another roadblock.

01:52 Israelis were present in Egypt up until today discussing a potential ceasefire deal. But

01:57 reports suggest that both the Israeli and U.S. teams, led by CIA Director Bill Burns,

02:03 have left Egypt, indicating that the ceasefire talks have reached yet another stalemate.

02:08 So for the moment, a ceasefire doesn't appear to be in the cards, and Israel does appear

02:12 to be proceeding into Rafa, despite President Biden's comments yesterday regarding continued

02:17 U.S. aid.

02:19 Let's talk about those comments, because Rafa has been a topic of conversation, especially

02:24 within the past few days. As we know, before, weeks ago, President Biden said an Israeli

02:29 offensive into Rafa was a red line for him. Just last night on a CNN interview, President

02:35 Biden said that he would not send Israel weapons or artillery to support the Rafa invasion.

02:41 What do you make of his comments?

02:44 Well there's a little bit of nuance into what the United States is saying right now, what

02:48 President Biden has been saying. As you note, several weeks ago, Biden did lay out a red

02:53 line indicating that the U.S. would start to take measures withholding certain amounts

02:59 of military aid if Israel proceeded with an offensive in Rafa that did not meet U.S. requirements.

03:05 The U.S. had been looking for a concrete plan from Israel related to the evacuation of civilians,

03:11 related to the continued flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The United States has been

03:15 quite clear that it does not support an Israeli offensive into Rafa without some kind of plan

03:21 to manage the civilian population.

03:24 What Biden said last night suggests that the U.S. position has changed a little bit. He

03:28 indicated that the United States really doesn't approve of any kind of Israeli offensive into

03:33 Rafa and that the U.S. would start withholding offensive weaponry. He and his administration

03:39 have been clear that this weaponry includes airdrop bombs, artillery shells, other kinds

03:45 of offensive weapons that Israel could use against Hamas in Rafa. The United States will

03:50 not stop delivering defensive weaponry, including armaments used by Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile

03:56 protection system. Other forms of aid will continue to flow.

03:59 But what Biden has been signaling now is that he doesn't want to see an Israeli offensive

04:03 into Rafa. He wants Israel to halt. The implicit suggestion here is that the United States

04:09 wants to see Israel focus on a ceasefire deal. There's been a lot of pressure from the United

04:13 States on the Netanyahu government towards a ceasefire deal. But given that talks in

04:18 Egypt seem to have seem to have reached yet another stalemate and given that Israel appears

04:22 to be continuing its offensive into Rafa, regardless of what President Biden says, it's

04:26 a little unclear as to what kind of impact the U.S. shift in position will really have

04:31 in the short term.

04:33 How big of a shift would you quantify this as? Because President Biden, from the beginning,

04:38 from October 7th, has said we are a steadfast ally with Israel. Now he's he never said we

04:45 weren't an ally, but he did say that there will be conditions when it comes to artillery

04:49 and weapons. So can you talk about that shift a bit?

04:54 There absolutely has been a shift, but I do think Biden and his administration are trying

04:59 to walk a very fine line here. There was a press conference today where a spokesperson

05:04 for the White House said very clearly the United States has not stopped being an ally

05:08 to Israel, that the flow of other kinds of weapons will continue. The flow of aid to

05:13 Israel will continue. The United States is not reevaluating its position as an ally of

05:17 Israel. But at the same time, the U.S. is trying to send a message regarding certain

05:22 kinds of offensive weapons related to certain kinds of operations in Rafa. There have been

05:28 some suggestions that the U.S. would be somewhat more open to a more limited operation if Israel

05:34 went into Rafa in a smaller way, if they focused on eliminating Hamas leadership, if

05:40 they focused on using airstrikes to degrade the Hamas position in Rafa without a large

05:44 ground offensive. Comments from the White House and from President Biden suggests that

05:48 there may be some support for that kind of operation. So there has been a shift, but

05:53 the White House, I think, is still conscious of trying to walk this line. And part of the

05:58 reason for that is the backlash that President Biden has experienced over the last 24 hours.

06:03 We've seen a lot of criticism from Republicans, including criticism from certain Senate Democrats.

06:09 There have been pushback from, of course, from the Israeli government. Prime Minister

06:12 Netanyahu has been saying that Israel will continue with its operation in Rafa, regardless

06:16 of what the United States does. And I think President Biden is conscious of retaining

06:22 his position, of retaining the U.S. position as an ally to Israel, and is wary of attracting

06:26 too much criticism. So they're trying to have it both ways with this new shift in weapons

06:32 policy. But right now, it's a little bit unclear as to how extensive that policy shift really

06:36 is.

06:37 I want to talk about that response because there was a lot of backlash and it was swift.

06:43 And you pointed this out on social media that it really can be divided into two sections

06:47 here. On the one hand, people are critical that Republicans and Democrats that I've seen

06:52 that they feel that President Biden is turning his back on Israel. On the other side, other

06:58 people have suggested that this is too little, too late from the Biden administration. What

07:03 do you make of this? And how is the Biden administration and President Biden himself

07:08 doing towing that line down the middle?

07:10 Well, of course, any of these decisions, any of these actions have to be put in their appropriate

07:15 context. Right. As you noted at the top, this is seven months into this war. This war has

07:20 been going on for a long time. It's increasingly proven to be a drag on President Biden as

07:25 he approaches this year's re-election, as he approaches this year's election contest

07:30 against Donald Trump. I think the administration is trying to have it both ways here, where

07:34 they retain support from Americans who continue to look favorably on Israel, continue to want

07:39 to see the United States support Israel. They, I think, in their position, want to continue

07:44 that relationship. Biden has been very clear that he is a strong friend to Israel. He has

07:49 denounced the Hamas attack many, many times. But at the same time, there has clearly been

07:54 a growing amount of criticism, a growing amount of frustration, particularly from the left

07:58 wing of the Democratic Party, particularly from younger voters who have helped Biden

08:04 in the 2020 election, have supported him so far. There's clearly been a lot of criticism

08:08 from that camp towards his policies in support of Israel. The response to this shift in U.S.

08:14 aid for Israel reflects seven months of growing frustration from the left wing of the Democratic

08:20 Party, as well as the criticisms that are coming from those who would support Israel.

08:23 So in a way, it is a little bit too little too late. And I think the fact that the Biden

08:28 administration is trying to walk this line is making it even harder for them to address

08:34 those criticisms. While the Biden administration is walking this line, saying we remain an

08:40 ally of Israel, also conditioning weapons going to Israel. Do you think that this impacts

08:46 the U.S.-Israel relationship at all? Well, the U.S.-Israeli relationship goes deeper

08:53 than just the Biden-Netanyahu relationship. Obviously, there's been a lot of friction

08:57 between the Netanyahu government and the Biden administration over this war and over other

09:02 issues. I mean, Biden has been quite frank in his frustrations with Bibi in the past.

09:07 But you have to remember that the United States and Israel have been allies going back many

09:11 years. There's a deep degree of military security and intelligence cooperation. There, of course,

09:16 are deep economic ties and deep cultural ties, right? America has, the United States has a

09:21 very, very large Jewish population. There is a lot of support for Israel amongst various

09:26 aspects of American society. So the U.S.-Israeli relationship has certainly come under stress.

09:32 I don't think it's going to buckle or collapse anytime soon. But I think this war has put a

09:37 great deal of pressure on Democrats and how the Democratic Party sees its relationship,

09:43 not just with Israel, but with Netanyahu and others within the war cabinet who want to continue

09:49 the fight against Hamas, see Israel in a less secure position now than it was before the October

09:55 7th attack. And I think there is a degree of uncertainty and concern about what happens after.

10:01 At some point, the war in Gaza will end or it will draw towards some kind of conclusion.

10:06 And there is concern about what Israel does when it's done with Hamas. Will it turn its

10:11 attentions towards Hezbollah? Will there be an increasing risk of war with Lebanon? Will there

10:16 be another exchange of drones and missiles with Iran following last month's attack? So I think

10:21 there we're in a period of uncertainty regarding the U.S.-Israeli relationship and where it goes,

10:27 not only regarding the situation in Gaza, but regarding Israel's place in the region as a whole.

10:32 You said something key earlier in our conversation that when it comes to this topic,

10:38 context is important. Do you think when it comes to the Rafa invasion or this war as a whole,

10:44 as we sit here seven months out, do you think anything's missing from this conversation?

10:48 Well, I think a few of the items that I just mentioned, right, what comes after,

10:54 right? Right now, the focus is laser focused on Rafa, which I think is appropriate, right? It's

10:58 going to be an incredibly difficult situation. There are over a million civilians present in

11:02 Rafa. There is, of course, still a Hamas presence in Rafa. But something that I've also been seeing

11:07 and I've been following more closely is the fact that Hamas has reemerged in other parts of Gaza,

11:13 right? It's been seven months of war, but Israel has not yet brought the whole of Gaza

11:19 under its control. It has not completely reduced the Hamas presence elsewhere in the territory.

11:24 And there is a growing risk that even if Israel succeeds in eliminating or significantly degrading

11:29 the Hamas presence in Rafa, Hamas itself will probably survive. The consensus from the beginning

11:34 of the war is that Hamas is unlikely to be completely destroyed by military action. So

11:40 even if the Rafa offensive takes place, even if it is largely successful, at least from Israel's

11:44 point of view, will Israel succeed in its war aims in Gaza? It remains unclear whether the war can be

11:50 won solely through military aims. Also, what happens to Gaza when the war is over, right?

11:55 We've seen a lot of talk about a two-state solution. We've heard a lot of talk about

12:00 setting up a post-war Gaza government, perhaps under the Palestinian Authority. This talk has

12:04 been going on for months without any kind of real clear resolution. It remains very unclear as to

12:10 who or what will govern Gaza and who will pay for its reconstruction. Those are the issues that I

12:16 have been thinking about more recently as we get closer to a Rafa offensive.

12:20 >> You bring up a really good point of Hamas cropping up in other parts of Gaza, not Rafa

12:27 exclusively. So I am curious, is this war only going to be over when all of Hamas is completely

12:34 decimated, and is there any indication of when that would be? >> It's very unclear what state

12:41 Hamas is in currently, right? We know that it is still present in Rafa, that it still has a

12:46 military organization there. Various leaders, including Yair Yassinwar, who masterminded the

12:51 October 7th attack, remain at large, remain present, likely in Rafa, in entrenched positions.

12:57 This is part of the reason why Israel is so focused on eliminating the Hamas position in Rafa. But

13:02 as I mentioned, Hamas remains active elsewhere in Gaza. There are multiple areas where the Israeli

13:08 military have moved in, eliminated the Hamas presence, declared victory, left, only for Hamas

13:13 to reemerge several months, if not weeks, later. So what happens to Hamas in the aftermath of a

13:19 Rafa offensive remains unclear. There has been, I think, a broad consensus that eliminating it

13:24 through military means is probably impossible, that there probably needs to be some kind of

13:28 political process around removing, eliminating Hamas entirely. But as I mentioned, there doesn't

13:35 seem to be much progress right now about what happens in Gaza when the war is over. That, to me,

13:40 is the crucial question that will resolve whether this war ends in victory for Israel, or if it

13:45 leads to a new, more uncertain, and more insecure status quo in the aftermath of the October 7th

13:51 attack. >> So Gregory, all eyes are on Rafa. All eyes are also on what's next after a Rafa

13:58 invasion. Thank you so much for joining me. I appreciate the conversation,

14:01 and I hope you come back again soon. >> Thank you so much. It was a pleasure.

14:06 [BLANK_AUDIO]

Biden Walking 'Very Fine Line' By Vowing To Withhold Weapons If Israel Invades Rafah: Analyst

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