Where We Are In A Potential Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: Eurasia Group Analyst Explains

4 months ago

Eurasia Group Analyst Gregory Brew joined Brittany Lewis on 'Forbes Newsroom' to discuss the Israel-Hamas war and a potential ceasefire.

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Transcript

00:00 This week passed the seven month mark from the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war,

00:06 and I want to talk about where we are right now.

00:08 Hamas announced it accepted a ceasefire proposal from Israel,

00:12 and Israel said that the agreement was "far from meeting Israel's core demands."

00:17 Where are we in terms of this conflict and in terms of a potential ceasefire?

00:21 Well, really over the last week there have been two big questions.

00:26 The first question was, will there be a ceasefire?

00:29 In other words, will Israel and Hamas agree to a deal that ends the fighting for a period of several weeks,

00:34 that allows the release of hostages that Hamas have been holding since October 7th,

00:39 and that brings an end to the fighting in Gaza?

00:41 The second question, which is of course related to the first question, is

00:45 would Israel begin an offensive operation in Rafa?

00:48 This of course is the city at the southern tip of Gaza.

00:51 It is where most of the Gaza population is currently located.

00:55 Over a million people have been taking shelter in Rafa over the last several months.

00:58 But it is also where Hamas remains in a position.

01:02 There are at least four battalions of Hamas fighters present in Rafa.

01:06 There is a number – there are a number of tunnels present in the town.

01:09 And Israel has made it very clear that it does not consider its operation in Gaza complete

01:14 until it is able to move into Rafa.

01:16 So over the last 48 hours we've seen developments on both of these fronts.

01:20 As far as the Rafa operation goes, Israel has begun the operation.

01:24 There have been airstrikes against Hamas targets in the city.

01:28 There have been reports of Israeli ground troops moving into the city as well,

01:31 even though there remain large numbers of civilians present.

01:34 On the ceasefire talks, we seem to have hit yet another roadblock.

01:38 Negotiators were present in Egypt up until today discussing a potential ceasefire deal,

01:44 but reports suggest that both the Israeli and U.S. teams, led by CIA Director Bill Burns,

01:49 have left Egypt, indicating that the ceasefire talks have reached yet another stalemate.

01:54 So for the moment, a ceasefire doesn't appear to be in the cards, and Israel does appear to

01:59 be proceeding into Rafa despite President Biden's comments yesterday regarding continued U.S. aid.

02:04 MS.

02:05 Let's talk about those comments because Rafa has been a topic of conversation,

02:10 especially within the past few days.

02:12 As we know, before weeks ago, President Biden said an Israeli offensive into Rafa was a red

02:18 line for him.

02:19 Just last night on a CNN interview, President Biden said that he would not send Israel weapons

02:24 or artillery to support the Rafa invasion.

02:28 What do you make of his comments?

02:29 MR.

02:30 Well, there's a little bit of nuance into what the United States is saying right now,

02:34 what President Biden has been saying.

02:37 As you note, several weeks ago, Biden did lay out a red line indicating that the U.S.

02:42 would start to take measures withholding certain amounts of military aid if Israel

02:47 proceeded with an offensive in Rafa that did not meet U.S. requirements.

02:52 The U.S. had been looking for a concrete plan from Israel related to the evacuation of civilians,

02:57 related to the continued flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

03:01 The United States has been quite clear that it does not support an Israeli offensive into

03:05 Rafa without some kind of plan to manage the civilian population.

03:10 What Biden said last night suggests that the U.S. position has changed a little bit.

03:15 He indicated that the United States really doesn't approve of any kind of Israeli offensive

03:20 into Rafa and that the U.S. would start withholding offensive weaponry.

03:24 He and his administration have been clear that this weaponry includes airdropped bombs,

03:30 artillery shells, other kinds of offensive weapons that Israel could use against Hamas

03:35 in Rafa.

03:35 The United States will not stop delivering defensive weaponry, including armaments used

03:40 by Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile protection system.

03:43 Other forms of aid will continue to flow.

03:46 But what Biden has been signaling now is that he doesn't want to see an Israeli offensive

03:50 into Rafa.

03:51 He wants Israel to halt.

03:52 The implicit suggestion here is that the United States wants to see Israel focus on a ceasefire

03:58 deal.

03:58 There's been a lot of pressure from the United States on the Netanyahu government towards

04:02 a ceasefire deal.

04:03 But given that talks in Egypt seem to have reached yet another stalemate, and given that

04:08 Israel appears to be continuing its offensive into Rafa, regardless of what President Biden

04:13 says, it's a little unclear as to what kind of impact the U.S. shift in position will

04:18 really have in the short term.

Where We Are In A Potential Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: Eurasia Group Analyst Explains

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