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00:00 I'd like you to update us on the current situation in each of the hot spots.
00:08 Right now, in Europe, the situation is quite intense and deep.
00:17 Russia is able to expand its territory after 20% and slowly.
00:28 Russia and the US have been waiting for 6 months to send weapons to Ukraine.
00:35 Russia has been able to take advantage of this situation and become a new power.
00:41 On the other hand, the US and the US are in a hurry to send weapons.
00:47 In 6 months, we will see the two sides move to the battlefield in Kharkiv, where the fight will be fierce.
01:06 In the Middle East, Israel has adopted a new method of entering the region known as the "part" or the "important part" of the Gaza Strip, which is the eastern part of the Gulf of Rafa.
01:25 It will enter to conduct a military exercise against the Hamas. These two parts will make the situation more tense during this period.
01:33 If you compare the situation in Ukraine and Russia, which is more worrying?
01:44 I think it's different.
01:47 In general, the situation in Europe is quite worrying because there are many major nations that are involved in the defense.
01:53 Both the United States and NATO.
01:56 Each country can produce weapons and has a lot of military.
02:00 Russia has a million troops. All 27 NATO countries are strong.
02:06 The confrontation in the war between Ukraine and Russia will be stronger.
02:14 As for the Middle East, there is still concern about whether there will be a war of nationality.
02:23 Both Iran and Israel are trying to reduce the confrontation, but there may be many reasons, such as the invasion of the Gaza Strip.
02:34 The invasion of Israel and Iran's allies, whether it's the Houthis, who have already sent signals, will attack the allies in the Gaza Strip.
02:48 The United States and NATO are worried about how to create a circle.
02:53 The way to create a circle for the United States is to try to pressure Israel to intervene as a part.
02:59 And push the pressure to the other side.
03:01 About 300,000-500,000 people have fled to another place, in the restricted area adjacent to the Egyptian border.
03:09 These are the two parts that we must be careful not to have a confrontation.
03:13 No one can say whether the real conflict will happen or not.
03:18 Professor, in the case of Israel, the recent opening of the city-state offensive, such as Rafah, will it make the situation more intense?
03:28 It should be more intense and tense.
03:34 It will have more impact on the people.
03:36 Israel understands the importance of this.
03:38 At the same time, if it doesn't attack the majority of Jews from the recent invasion,
03:44 Israel will still support the act of surrounding Hamas in Rafah.
03:48 But it doesn't want to have a conflict with the Palestinians and be expelled from the country.
03:52 So what Israel is doing is pushing the Palestinians to one side,
03:58 and opening up space for Hamas to confront Israel on the other side.
04:04 This may not succeed, because the report of the United Nations clearly indicates that Hamas uses the Palestinians as a shield.
04:14 But at the same time, the special report that was released a few weeks ago said that Israel may violate many agreements in the country
04:20 in using the weapons of the state to attack the Hamas group in Gaza.
04:28 These are two points of view that are quite conflicting and conflicting.
04:32 But in the end, Israel will probably take the lead in controlling the area and confronting the remaining Hamas in some areas.
04:42 We have seen the war.
04:44 Many people say that it is a war zone, especially those who are watching.
04:46 Both the side of Russia and Ukraine, including the Middle East war.
04:50 Professor Rameon, the impact of the global economy so far, how is it?
04:54 It is clear that the economy has not improved as expected.
05:00 The number of cars has decreased.
05:02 There is a concern about energy, product prices, and basic prices.
05:12 It is quite strange.
05:14 All of this depends on the management of many countries, including the United States and China.
05:20 China has been more involved in both cases,
05:24 worrying that it will affect the economy.
05:26 Trying to push for a way out.
05:28 And trying to support one side to create more competition.
05:32 All of this will cause the economy to change.
05:36 Professor, many people are worried about the Middle East,
05:40 that it may affect the oil prices.
05:44 Earlier, Iran also threatened to close the Hamas' gas channel.
05:48 Is there a chance that the oil prices will increase?
05:52 And will Iran come to war with Israel again?
05:58 Yes, the issue of the transformation in labor and delivery prices is clear.
06:06 Since the Houthis tried to close the Red Sea,
06:08 large companies have to change their routes and send their products.
06:16 And of course, the price of energy,
06:18 even though the Russians are releasing a lot of energy into the market,
06:22 is still fluctuating.
06:24 The situation will get better in terms of energy.
06:28 But Iran's attempts to deal with the Middle East problem
06:36 will cause more confrontations with Israel through representatives such as the Israeli-Lebanese group.
06:42 So the chances are not good in terms of confrontation between Iran and Israel.
06:48 But the past two rounds, both countries have tried to move out at different times.
06:54 After the first direct confrontation in the history of the two countries,
07:00 which can enter the Middle East directly and confront each other as we have seen.
07:06 But at this time, they have tried to move out for a while
07:12 and return to the situation of supporting the war against Israel.
07:18 At the end of this year, there will be another important event,
07:22 which is the election in the United States.
07:24 You said that this election will affect the conflict.
07:29 What will happen if Joe Biden comes back?
07:31 What will happen if Trump comes back?
07:34 Actually, the overall picture of the world economy will not change much.
07:39 The confrontation between the United States, China, and Russia will continue.
07:45 But in the short term, the representatives of both parties may have different ideas
07:51 on how to negotiate or delay the withdrawal of the sanctions.
07:55 The U.S. side is quite clear that it wants a temporary ceasefire
08:00 so that the economy can recover and recover.
08:03 Therefore, the former President Donald Trump will be more clear in his approach to negotiations
08:08 and reduce Ukraine's support to create pressure for Ukraine to negotiate.
08:14 But the Democrats probably won't change much,
08:18 except that they will invite Russia to withdraw more from Ukraine.
08:23 But we have to look at the real votes of the Democrats.
08:27 There are young men and women who want to oppose the war with Hamas.
08:34 And there are still many people who are worried about the violence of Hamas.
08:40 In addition, Israel's population has also decreased significantly in the United States.
08:45 Yes, you have seen it now.
08:47 Many people have not yet evaluated what the end point of the war will be around the world.
08:53 What do you think will be the turning point of the war this time?
08:56 Yes, apart from the election of a new government, which will be a turning point,
09:02 we will have to look at the real advantages and disadvantages in the European Union.
09:07 And we will see whether the United States and the United Nations can push both sides to the table.
09:13 But it will probably happen after there are advantages and disadvantages in each round.
09:18 Because at the moment, Russia's advantages are still quite sufficient.
09:22 But if Ukraine can fall back within six months to a year, we will see negotiations.
09:29 That is our hope.
09:31 Israel and Hamas will probably settle the matter sooner than in the case of Europe.
09:38 And it is possible that the accession to the Gaza Strip will be done in the form of a foreign power.
09:46 But if Israel gives in and tries to back down a little, the situation will be better for Thailand.
09:53 If you move to another point, closer to Thailand,
09:57 the conflict in the South China Sea, there is a frequent conflict,
10:03 such as the Philippines, China, including Taiwan. Is this worrying?
10:08 Yes, this point cannot be neglected.
10:11 While all parties are still looking at the problems in Europe and the Middle East,
10:16 in fact, the problems in Asia, the Asia-Pacific, and the Asia-Pacific are getting worse every day.
10:21 The North Korean arms trade, the US's military presence in the region,
10:26 and the invasion of China in the South China Sea, especially the confrontation with the Philippines,
10:31 in the context of the distance. All of these make the situation more tense.
10:37 The US, Britain, and Australia are also moving in.
10:44 And there is more training.
10:46 In Thailand, there is also a rise in the power of the US and China.
10:52 This will make it a hot spot.
10:56 It is a hot spot.
10:58 And if you are not careful and careless, especially in the South China Sea,
11:04 there is a frequent challenge from the two powers.
11:09 What role will Thailand play in the war?
11:13 And how should Thailand respond?
11:16 Thailand, in addition to this, has also been involved in the country's military presence in Myanmar.
11:21 This is considered a hot spot.
11:23 And in this hot season, the rainy season, there will be an attempt to suppress.
11:29 This is being discussed again.
11:31 Thailand should not be careless in its management and stability.
11:36 In the South China Sea, it cooperated with ASEAN,
11:40 and cooperated with its fellow countries, including countries that have a hot spot for Myanmar.
11:44 Thailand can communicate with the United States and China quite a lot.
11:48 Thailand should be used as a place to talk, as it has done before.
11:52 If it can do it, it will create a space for exchange,
11:56 and it may prevent problems from arising in the Middle East or Europe.
12:01 Many people see that our world is being forced to choose sides.
12:08 On the one hand, what should be Thailand's position?
12:12 In fact, Thailand's position is that many parties want to use it as a medium to talk,
12:20 rather than pulling Thailand to one side.
12:23 We can start doing it now.
12:26 We can adjust the balance, and it is a place where all parties can communicate with us.
12:30 The armed forces have a small population of almost 20 groups, and now they want to communicate with Thailand.
12:35 We must be careful not to be seen by one party as a friend or a partner,
12:41 or as a choice of one party to create inequality.
12:45 We should be a way out for all parties,
12:48 meaning for people who are unsafe in life and property.
12:52 We should be a way out for countries that do not want war,
12:55 and a way out for countries that want to live in peace and harmony,
12:59 rather than a choice to win or lose,
13:03 and win by using Thailand as a medium to gain or lose.
13:06 In terms of economic impact,
13:09 many people may think that the problems of conflict are mostly far from Thailand.
13:14 But in terms of the impact of Thailand's economy, how has it affected?
13:18 Of course, when Europe slows down because it has to go to war,
13:25 the trade with us and Europe, which is one of the four countries in Europe,
13:34 is also affected.
13:36 That is one of the problems that has already happened.
13:39 At the same time, in the Middle East, we have also been affected by energy,
13:43 and we have been affected by the tourism industry of the Middle East,
13:49 which is not as much as we expected.
13:53 This is a problem that directly affects our tourism industry,
13:57 apart from Europe.
13:59 There may be some countries that have entered Thailand more,
14:02 but the overall atmosphere is not as good as we expected.
14:06 In the end, of course, there will be conflicts in the cyber world and in the real world.
14:12 These things will affect our security,
14:15 and the sale of online business,
14:19 which we have to be more careful and invest more.
14:22 We have to protect ourselves from these things, which is increasing.
14:26 [BLANK_AUDIO]