Kelesuan Inflasi AS, Dorong IHSG ke 7.200
IHSG menguat 0,91% ke level 7.245,107 Kamis (16/5). IDX-Property +1,43% dengan SMRA +5,61%, LPKR+4,87% di tengah penjualan rumah residensial naik signifikan di Q1 2024. Dari perbankan, BBNI +3,38%, BBRI +2,49%. TLKM tidak ikut euforia penguatan, dengan koreksi menyentuh level terendah 3 tahun di Rp2.960, bertepatan dengan Ex dividen di 16 Mei 2024.
Dari global, Indeks utama Wall Street mencatat rekor penutupan, Rabu, dengan S&P 500 dan Nasdaq melonjak lebih dari 1%, setelah kenaikan inflasi konsumen yang lebih kecil dari perkiraan, mendukung harapan investor terhadap penurunan suku bunga The Fed.
Dari global, Indeks utama Wall Street mencatat rekor penutupan, Rabu, dengan S&P 500 dan Nasdaq melonjak lebih dari 1%, setelah kenaikan inflasi konsumen yang lebih kecil dari perkiraan, mendukung harapan investor terhadap penurunan suku bunga The Fed.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us and we also invite you to participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 08.12.8788.723
00:10as shown on your TV screen later.
00:13And now we are connected via Zoom with Mrs. Liza Kamelia Suryanata,
00:17the Head of Research at NHK Corindo, Indonesia's Security.
00:21We will go straight to her.
00:22Good afternoon, Mrs. Liza. How are you?
00:25Hello, good afternoon. Thank you.
00:28Thank you, Mrs. Liza, for spending your time on IDX Channel.
00:31Today, Dekargasam Kabungan continues to strengthen.
00:34The level of 7,200 has been touched again.
00:38And even intraday today, it was able to try to approach the level of 7,300,
00:43precisely at 7,270.
00:46From a technical point of view,
00:48how do you see the continuation of the strengthening of Dekargasam Kabungan
00:51throughout today's business?
00:54Okay.
00:55So, indeed, there is no sign of a breakout.
00:59It has been seen since yesterday.
01:01But yesterday, we did need a little confirmation.
01:05Once IHSJ surpassed 7,200,
01:08then it should be able to have enough opportunities to reach the target.
01:14Ideally, it is around 7,300 or 7,400.
01:18Well, maybe our first step will be to reach 7,300 first,
01:22for a short period of time.
01:24While monitoring the continuation of sentiments
01:28that will probably affect the market more,
01:31namely from America.
01:32In addition to the fact that they have released inflation data
01:36from the US PPI and CPI,
01:38which proves that the PPI is in line with expectations.
01:44So, hopefully, if everything goes well,
01:55in line too, then 7,300,
01:58maybe tomorrow we can still reach it.
02:00Okay.
02:01Mrs. Liza, in the last three months,
02:02Dekargasam Kabungan has also undergone quite a deep correction.
02:05It was traded at the end of April,
02:08reaching its lowest level in three months in 2036.
02:11Today, it tries to rise back to 7,200.
02:14How do you see the reverse of what happened today?
02:17Is it already able to break the previous correctional position
02:22and has already started to change the trend in the direction of the IHSJ movement?
02:27Okay, so since the IHSJ fell from its peak in mid-March,
02:34at its peak of around 7,400,
02:37its bottom was at around 7,200,
02:42as mentioned earlier.
02:44They formed a downtrend pattern called the parallel channel.
02:49So, when we broke through the 7,200 level yesterday,
02:53it slightly slowed down this short-term trend.
02:57But in the medium term,
03:02the mid-term trend is still relatively sideways.
03:06And as I said earlier,
03:08our next target is around 7,300
03:11to the previous highest level of 7,400.
03:15But for the meantime, I think we can breathe a sigh of relief.
03:20In addition, the market sentiment has also been quite supportive.
03:23Our money has also been strengthened a little.
03:26Hopefully, we don't have to look at the 7,000 level anymore.
03:32Okay, Mrs. Liza, from the sectoral movement rotation,
03:35which was also part of our topic today,
03:38property is leading from the side of Mrs. Liza's strength.
03:41There are a few sentiments,
03:43Asian-Malaysian inflation, which is expected to fall
03:46and also have an impact on Bank Indonesia.
03:49And on the other hand,
03:50Bank Indonesia also released today
03:52the sale of residential houses.
03:55This is experiencing significant strength
03:57also above almost 2% compared to the previous quarter.
04:00Do you see this as only a sectoral rotation
04:04or is it supported from a technical point of view
04:07when some properties have experienced
04:09quite a deep correction in recent times?
04:13Yes, of course, the essential is fundamental,
04:16especially macroeconomics.
04:18So when American inflation starts to fall,
04:21the expectation of the cut of the FED's flow rate
04:25this year is becoming more feasible.
04:27Even though it was starting to be quite pessimistic.
04:31So if there is a cut in the flow rate in the future,
04:34maybe Bank Indonesia will also follow and adjust.
04:38This will result in banks
04:41finally being able to lower the flow rate
04:44of consumers such as KPR, KPA,
04:48which will further stimulate the desire of the public
04:52to take credit.
04:54Okay, so in addition to the banking sector,
04:57which is also rising today,
04:59sentiment positive is also affecting the property sector.
05:03So what else, most of our property sectors
05:06are in the same condition as banking.
05:08The stock price is already in the support area.
05:11So it's a perfect timing today for a rebound.
05:14Technically, if we look at what is rising today,
05:19such as SMRA.
05:21Well, today it passed level 560.
05:28This slightly overshadows the long-term trend line resistance.
05:34This makes SMRA quite capable
05:38to reach the short-term target of around 600,
05:42up to 620.
05:47Then VWON, which is also quite depreciated,
05:53finally found support at around 375.
05:56For now, the closest target is around 420-450.
06:04Then another one is CTRA.
06:07CTRA, which has not risen that much yet.
06:10But today the good news is
06:12it managed to pass the MA10 and MA20 resistance.
06:15So tomorrow it should still have a potential
06:18of around 1,200-1,215.
06:22Okay.
06:23Normally, the sectoral rotation only lasts for a short time.
06:28Maximum two or three days, then it goes back.
06:31How do you see the position of Samsung Properties
06:34for the current position?
06:37Okay, if we talk about the short-term trend
06:42of the sectoral rotation,
06:44yes, one or two days.
06:46I believe that if there is no...
06:49This is just a technical limit.
06:51So, for a longer trend,
06:55a more sustainable uptrend,
06:57we need to support fundamental.
07:01In addition to the hope that
07:04the flowering season can be held this year,
07:06although it may be a bit far,
07:08around the third quarter or fourth quarter.
07:12From the fundamental side,
07:15we also need to see if there will be more incentives
07:18for the property sector.
07:21In addition, maybe the flowering season will come later.
07:27And then,
07:28is the public's support enough?
07:34From the new government,
07:36what are the plans for the Indonesian property sector?
07:40As we know,
07:41in October or November,
07:43there will be a presidential election.
07:47So, I guess we need to wait for the next year.
07:49Okay, the property sector today
07:51is also under the influence of Ibu Liza.
07:53But in the midst of the euphoria
07:55of the strength of the Samgabungan family,
07:57some stocks are experiencing
07:59quite a deep pressure
08:01during the recent days.
08:03I want to go to the telecommunications infrastructure first.
08:05Ibu Liza, there is Telkom.
08:07This is also quite noteworthy.
08:09Deep pressure has occurred in the last few months.
08:11Not only because of the ex-dividend,
08:13but before that,
08:14Telkom has also experienced a weakness.
08:17Today, it touched 2690,
08:20if I'm not mistaken,
08:21the lowest intraday level in the last three years.
08:24Although in this closure,
08:26the weakness is more limited.
08:28What is your analysis
08:30so far for Telkom?
08:31The position has been sold.
08:33Then, has it been recommended to buy?
08:37Yes, Mr. David is right.
08:39If the weakness has been limited
08:41or has potential,
08:43because 2960 is the level of support
08:46that happened before.
08:48Not long ago, around April.
08:51Then, the good news is
08:52when today Telkom reached 2960 again
08:55due to the ex-dividend,
08:57from the RSI indicator,
08:59there is a positive divergence.
09:01It means that in the second bottom,
09:04the buying momentum is detected
09:05and it starts to pick up.
09:07So, I'm not surprised if Telkom goes up
09:10and this afternoon,
09:12it seems to be closed at the price of 3020.
09:16I hope for tomorrow at least,
09:19at the end of the week,
09:20Telkom can still advance
09:22at least to 3100.
09:24But indeed, there we need to see first
09:26because there are resistance
09:28that need to be faced.
09:29These two resistance are
09:31the crucial level
09:33that must be passed by Telkom
09:35at least as the first step
09:38to break down this downward trend.
09:41Afterwards, maybe the more interesting target
09:44is at 3200
09:46or close the gap at 3420.
09:49But the strategy is
09:51to gradually average up.
09:53Okay.
09:54And again, the investment decision
09:55is still in the hands of IDEX Channel.
09:57While waiting for the closing update
09:59in the second session today,
10:02Mrs. Liza, I want to go to Astra International for a moment.
10:04Good afternoon, Mrs. Liza.
10:05Today, there is a strengthening for ICE.
10:08The journey is almost the same as Telkom.
10:11We had a deep correction
10:13and coincidentally, there is already a question
10:15in our interactive WhatsApp.
10:17Mr. Victor from Malang.
10:18ICE is quite high today.
10:20What is the price?
10:21Please give us your advice.
10:22Briefly, Mrs. Liza.
10:23Technical, ICE.
10:25Okay.
10:26Support at 4530.
10:28You can take that area.
10:30Average up.
10:31If it has been confirmed above 4700,
10:33the first target may be MA10 and MA20
10:36around 4970 to 5000.
10:39There is a gap at 5175.
10:42That's all for now
10:43because it is still a downtrend channel.
10:45Okay. Still a downtrend channel
10:46that must be monitored.
10:48Although experiencing significant strength today
10:50at 4710.
10:51Mr. Victor from Malang.
10:52And again, the investment decision
10:54is still in the hands of IDEX Channel.