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00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]
00:03 Hello, and welcome.
00:10 You're tuned into the Small and Mid-Cap Show
00:11 here on NDTV Profit.
00:13 I'm Harsh Saita.
00:14 With me, as we always do daily, we
00:17 are joined by the management of IdeaForge today.
00:20 We have Rahul Singh, who's the VP Engineering,
00:23 and Vipul Joshi, who's the CFO of IdeaForge,
00:26 both of who are joining us.
00:29 Welcome, gentlemen, to NDTV Profit.
00:31 First off, with regard to IdeaForge,
00:33 I want to try and understand what the pipeline is like,
00:36 because there seems to be a bit of a shrink on the order book.
00:39 Of course, execution, no complaints per se.
00:42 But where's the order book going, therefore?
00:46 Thank you, Harsh, for having us.
00:48 So we have been enumerating the last few quarters
00:51 as well that our order books get spilled during the year
00:54 and then get executed as well.
00:55 And that's also being seen in our overall results
00:59 as well.
01:00 We started with our FY23 as also at about 190 crores
01:05 as our order book.
01:06 And today, we are at 125, and we hope to build it also,
01:09 tracking a 300 crores L1 pipeline, which
01:12 will get added during the years and also get built.
01:15 And hopefully, how the market overall
01:18 is moving from this industry perspective, the orders
01:21 and the overall sizing itself should change in the coming
01:23 time period as well.
01:25 Got it.
01:26 So roughly 175 crore odd of more orders
01:30 to come through this year, FY25, is that how one
01:36 should look at the pipeline?
01:38 See, in our earnings call, we highlighted
01:40 that we are tracking an L1 pipeline of 300 crores.
01:44 And we already have an order book of 125 crores,
01:47 which will get built in the current year.
01:49 And we probably would add more run rate business.
01:53 Our civil size of business also changed in the last quarter.
01:56 And that will also start contributing more
01:58 in the coming year.
01:59 OK, OK, understood.
02:00 Understood, OK.
02:02 And with regard to execution timelines,
02:06 what's the kind of number one can look at?
02:08 Because your growth is, of course,
02:09 very strong on a low base.
02:12 So Rahul, if I can take it to you,
02:14 what's the kind of growth that one can start to pencil in?
02:18 So I would say we'd stay away from a guidance number
02:22 on a growth metric as such.
02:25 But what we definitely know that for this year,
02:28 we do plan to grow.
02:30 And in terms of our execution bandwidth
02:32 for the planned order book and the expected pipeline
02:37 that we are tracking, I think we have a strong capacity built
02:42 already to be able to execute it in given timelines.
02:45 A lot of our orders come with executed execution timelines,
02:48 which may be as short as a quarter in some cases.
02:51 So the order coming in and getting executed
02:55 may happen within the timeline of a quarter or two.
02:59 So from that perspective, I think
03:01 we have a strong pipeline looking forward
03:04 and good capacity in place to be able to execute it and ensure
03:10 growing year this year as well.
03:12 OK, I take your point.
03:14 No guidance that's coming out.
03:16 But if I can try and understand from you,
03:19 what's the kind of opportunity size in terms of orders, Raul,
03:22 that we're looking for in this year in FY25?
03:27 Just to try and get context and comfort
03:29 as to what kind of opportunity size
03:33 is there or you're expecting.
03:36 So like Vipul mentioned that beyond the 125
03:39 CR of orders in hand, the 300 CR of the L1 pipeline
03:45 is a high probability pipeline.
03:48 Now, that order closing may have different execution timelines
03:52 associated with it.
03:53 But beyond that 300 CR L1 pipeline,
03:56 we also have a large sort of pipeline
04:00 growing where we are not at the L1 stage.
04:02 But the speed of closure of those pipeline items
04:06 historically has been short enough within a quarter or two
04:10 to get realized within the financial year
04:12 and have a potential of getting executed.
04:15 So the potential order realized through the year
04:18 would be a larger number than the L1 pipeline and the order
04:25 in hand that we're projecting.
04:26 But not all of that may have an execution plan
04:29 within the year, depending on the contract requirements.
04:33 Also to add, Harsh, there are enough efforts
04:35 being made to add different portfolios of product
04:39 over the year and also to add different geographies as part
04:42 of our order book pipeline.
04:44 We are present in US market and there
04:46 are different other international markets
04:47 where we are seeing green shoots.
04:49 So from that perspective also for this year,
04:52 we will add into our order book pipeline
04:54 and also overall tracking pipeline
04:57 from the different geographies as well.
04:59 Also, it is our efforts on the drone as a service
05:04 will see a certain maturity.
05:06 We will also see that how our different offerings in terms
05:09 of whether software autonomy or as well as
05:13 our new product portfolio should help in bringing new customers
05:18 as well as also open different doors for us.
05:22 I take your point, Vipul.
05:23 And so what's the kind of number we're
05:26 looking at in terms of annual revenue
05:29 from drone as a service?
05:33 So right now it is an ancient stage, Harsh,
05:36 and it will not be meaningful contribution
05:39 from an overall sizing perspective.
05:40 But since it is our effort to overall improve
05:44 the civil size and the base of the civil contribution
05:47 in the revenue, the drone as a service
05:49 should see certain contribution from that side.
05:52 OK.
05:53 And therefore, what percentage of revenue
05:57 would that constitute in terms of FY '24 number?
06:02 See, right now the quarter four civil size--
06:04 I mean, from the drone as a service
06:05 has not started contributing in the revenue as of now.
06:07 Sure.
06:08 Overall civil size in the Q4 obviously
06:10 improved to about 30%.
06:11 Sure.
06:13 OK.
06:13 OK.
06:14 I get your point.
06:15 And with regard to margins, Vipul,
06:18 where should margins go, therefore, going forward?
06:21 Of course, we've seen a margin contraction
06:23 because revenue growth has been strong as well.
06:26 I understand that.
06:27 But where should margins, therefore, lie?
06:29 Because you did mention that the visibility is a quarter forward
06:34 in terms of your order win versus execution.
06:37 And therefore, margins should have more certainty
06:39 going forward.
06:41 So margin, again, is a factor of which
06:43 contracts are getting built. Some of our contracts
06:46 have actually been a few years older contracts
06:49 when they signed them.
06:50 Only the execution is coming now.
06:52 Even historically, we have mentioned
06:53 that our overall cycle of signing the contracts
06:56 is about 6 to 12 months period overall.
06:59 And then the execution period is, again, dependent on
07:02 whether those are revenue contracts or capital
07:04 contracts.
07:05 They have a distributed delivery timelines.
07:08 All of that distributed, we will see a certain,
07:12 so to say, ranging of 45% to 50% of gross margins hovering.
07:17 And EBITDA, about 25% to 30% would be our outlook would be.
07:21 And as soon as our efforts on bringing in differentiated
07:25 products come to market, that will help us
07:28 improve these margins better.
07:30 Sure.
07:32 Also, with regard to capacity utilization
07:35 on quadcopters and for four four-switch UAVs,
07:40 your capacity utilization was roughly 80%
07:44 is what the Q3 guidance seemed to suggest,
07:47 or commentary seemed to suggest.
07:50 Is there a capex in the pipeline?
07:53 Is there something in the pipeline
07:56 in terms of capex outside of this that one can expect?
08:01 So right now, see, we are not trying
08:04 to do any capex from a production perspective.
08:06 Anyways, as I enumerated earlier also,
08:08 was we are only utilizing single shift facility as of now.
08:12 We have scope to go further to about three shifts
08:16 in the same facility.
08:17 So there's no capex planning.
08:19 But our overall contribution from product development
08:23 efforts and the investment there continues
08:26 to be heavy going forward.
08:28 OK, and with regard to competitive intensity,
08:31 are you seeing pricing pressure come in, Rahul?
08:35 I think as with most industries, I
08:37 think the pricing pressure is something
08:39 which becomes more prominent once the stagnation of product
08:45 capability start to happen.
08:46 So I think our broad approach, which
08:49 is both great for the customer, our target customers, and us,
08:53 is continue building differentiated outcomes
08:56 and better value propositions for the customer.
09:00 And through that, I think we feel
09:02 confident to remain healthily positioned in terms
09:07 of the pricing competition.
09:10 That's a concern which would have
09:11 happened if we would have not been as confident
09:14 and investing in new product.
09:18 OK, and Rahul, how will the evolution of mix
09:21 happen in terms of top line?
09:24 Your PLI has contributed a larger chunk
09:29 to at least Q4 numbers.
09:32 How should that start to play out going forward, FY25?
09:35 I think the PLI number is a number which is always
09:42 a good welcome support, which the government extends
09:45 to the industry.
09:46 But I think the core business metrics are not necessarily
09:49 heavily dependent on the PLI contribution
09:52 to ensure healthy growth going forward.
09:55 So I think the projections that we are considering right now
09:59 are not necessarily dependent on a contribution like that,
10:03 while we welcome any support from the government
10:05 to encourage the industry in that direction.
10:07 So I think the new product developments and launches
10:12 that we're doing this year should start
10:14 adding to the projected revenue that we would have
10:17 through the financial year.
10:18 And it will be a mix of, as Vipal mentioned,
10:22 some contracts from last year which
10:24 will get executed this year, and hence
10:26 will be reflected with the portfolio which
10:30 was existing last year.
10:31 But towards the later half of the year,
10:33 we will start seeing contributions
10:35 from a new category of products that we're developing
10:39 and launching this year.
10:40 And they should reflect in the later quarter's order books.
10:44 OK, and last off, Rahul, I'll stick with you.
10:47 With regard to R&D, what's the kind of spend
10:51 in terms of percentage of top line?
10:53 And do you largely expense that out, or do you capitalize it?
10:58 And therefore, is that reflecting as an asset?
11:03 So broadly, I think currently we don't track it
11:09 as a percentage of the current top line number,
11:12 because that may not be the right way
11:14 to budget for product development,
11:16 for a growth stage, future sort of oriented potential revenue
11:20 business.
11:22 And hence, I won't have a reference
11:24 of a percentage of top line as a R&D budget today.
11:28 But essentially, the sizing of the R&D budget
11:31 comes more from the projected future opportunities
11:35 that we see in those domains.
11:36 And hence, we continue to invest in that area.
11:40 From a capitalization perspective,
11:42 I think we focus on capitalizing the expenses against the product
11:48 development for a period of three years
11:50 from the time of commercialization.
11:53 So that's the broad thumb rule that we're following right now.
11:56 And any product which will start getting
11:58 commercialized this year will have its capitalization spread
12:02 over the following three years.
12:05 So, Harsh, just to add here, obviously,
12:07 the strategy is to capitalize the product development efforts.
12:10 It sits on the intangible assets under development.
12:13 We contributed about 52 per rows last year.
12:18 And we will continue to grow that effort
12:20 because there are different platforms that
12:22 are in making at the moment.
12:24 There are different-- obviously, those sizes of those products
12:27 are fairly larger from what we've
12:28 been doing historically.
12:29 And we will continue to put efforts
12:31 on the current portfolio.
12:34 Just a rough number from a top line number
12:36 would be roughly about between 20% to 25%
12:39 is how we would look at it in the current year.
12:43 And that expense essentially is expanding us
12:45 into two, three new segments that we haven't existed
12:48 traditionally, the tactical UAV segment, which
12:50 has a strong global presence.
12:52 And I think that should just not be a domestic opportunity,
12:55 but a global opportunity for us, as well as the middle mile
12:57 logistics, which is sort of an up and coming
13:03 category with a huge global potential which is projected.
13:06 So both of these categories in the coming years
13:10 should contribute to a significant part of the order
13:14 booking potential that we would have.
13:16 And also, I want to reflect on the donor service, which
13:19 is one part of its fraction as a revenue contribution.
13:22 But the second part is also an evolving nature
13:24 of that revenue.
13:25 So with donor service, a greater recurring revenue nature
13:29 should come in, which should play a good mix in terms
13:33 of the nature of revenues that we currently have.
13:36 OK.
13:37 Thank you so much, Rahul, Vipul, for taking our time,
13:39 giving us that perspective.
13:41 I have with me Mr. Shivendra Nigam.
13:44 First off, sir, I want to talk about both the per square foot
13:48 sales number, as well as the same store sales growth.
13:51 Both have been slightly muted in FY '24.
13:54 Talk us through the trends and what
13:57 are you seeing early off in FY '25?
13:59 What can we expect?
14:02 Thank you, Raj.
14:02 Thanks for calling out.
14:04 So yes, there was a slightly slowdown effect
14:07 was there in the whole of the year.
14:09 But very good point is that in Q4, the same store sales
14:15 growth was there.
14:16 The overall for minus 4%, we have
14:18 taken a course of not increasing the price for last financial
14:20 year.
14:21 That has been impacted.
14:22 So that the correction has been taken.
14:24 Now per square foot also has been slightly on a downside.
14:27 Number one, I just explained slightly on a slower side
14:30 due to sales growth.
14:31 As well, this year now we are opening the bigger store.
14:34 We are opening the bigger store.
14:36 Our average size last year was 1150 square foot.
14:38 This year I end up with 250.
14:41 So whatever the store, 86 new store has been added.
14:43 My average size for the new store was 1600 square foot.
14:46 So we are now opening the bigger stores, more bigger stores,
14:49 more family store.
14:50 So whenever the store size will be,
14:52 there is slight downfall has been noticed
14:55 on the per square foot store.
14:56 So these are the two main reasons.
14:57 But this year we are absolutely--
14:59 that we are on our own target.
15:01 The same targets are there.
15:02 We will be able to recover all those margins this year as well.
15:05 So FY25 target is clear.
15:07 Long-term targets will grow as a 20% of the CABR
15:10 and going forward in the same place.
15:12 Fair point, fair point.
15:13 OK.
15:14 So tell us where--
15:17 how are you investing or what new products
15:20 are you building in into your larger format stores?
15:23 How are you bettering yourself to leverage on the space
15:27 that you are taking up?
15:29 So mostly the idea behind the Canterbill as a company
15:32 is to make a one-stop shop for the family.
15:35 So we are having a very good response
15:37 in ladies and exclusive store.
15:38 We have opened for ladies and kids as well.
15:41 Now we have 40 exclusive--
15:42 apart from the existing stores, we
15:44 have more than 250 stores have been there,
15:46 having ladies and kids as well.
15:47 Exclusive stores are also being opened.
15:49 We are increasing our range as well,
15:52 which has been given-- you can see in the numbers as well.
15:55 Accessories range has been improved.
15:58 So our contribution on overall sale
16:00 has gone from 3% to 4%.
16:02 Same in the case of kids.
16:03 It has gone 1% up.
16:05 Ladies, 1% up.
16:06 And when all the percent is in, men's
16:08 have been stable approximately 83%.
16:10 So we are not investing very much.
16:11 We are just increasing the range and wherever the gaps are.
16:17 So just the idea behind it to make a complete one-stop shop,
16:21 as I said, for the family as well.
16:23 It's simple.
16:25 Sure.
16:26 And with regard to footwear, you had
16:31 expanded into footwear, or rather you
16:35 had put footwear in 50 stores.
16:37 What's the progress like in Q4?
16:39 And where does it go in FY25?
16:42 How should it contribute to your numbers overall?
16:45 You exactly remember the numbers what I said in last 50 stores,
16:48 correct?
16:49 So that has been there in the 50 stores.
16:51 Now we are adding more stores.
16:53 So there is now 100 stores.
16:55 So it's still new in terms of footwear.
16:57 It's too early to take a call.
17:00 But whatever the sell-through we were expecting,
17:03 it is being generated.
17:06 Sell-through is not that fast.
17:08 But whatever we are expecting, as far as new product launch,
17:12 it is being there.
17:13 We are having five, six new stores for active wear,
17:15 which is wear shoes and active wear.
17:18 So promising.
17:18 Looks promising.
17:19 But it's still in the washboard.
17:23 Sure.
17:24 And with regard to your EBITDA numbers, 28% to 30%,
17:29 how quickly do you go back to that?
17:31 Is this a softer quarter in terms of margins?
17:35 How should one look at FY25 in that context?
17:39 So absolutely, we are committed to be back in this financial
17:42 year to those 28% to 30% numbers.
17:43 Obviously, the same store sales growth expansion
17:46 was fast, a little bit more expensive.
17:48 Slightly margin has been down.
17:50 4% was the same store sales growth.
17:51 These were the reasons.
17:52 So 26% to 26.5% EBITDA margin this year.
17:56 But this financial year, FY25 on a longer term,
17:59 we are committed to deliver it to 28% to 30%
18:02 of EBITDA margin.
18:03 All right.
18:04 And 80 to 90 new stores expected to be added.
18:07 FY25, is that guidance unchanged?
18:11 Absolutely.
18:12 There is no change in a longer term plan.
18:13 80 to 90 is everywhere to make the company
18:15 a thousand crore revenue by mid of FY27.
18:17 That's clear.
18:18 Point taken.
18:19 And with regard to SSSG growth itself,
18:23 I know you spoke about it a little bit.
18:24 You spoke about what levers you are
18:26 going to use to increase that.
18:28 But what's the kind of internal thought process with regard
18:32 to that growth number?
18:33 Do you all have something in mind in terms of SSSG growth?
18:37 Because that is definitely going to drive up margins as well.
18:40 Absolutely.
18:41 We have.
18:42 We have a single-- we are not very aggressive in terms
18:44 of this.
18:44 But definitely, SSSG, we are looking for the year on year
18:47 business to 5% to 6%.
18:48 So over 20% what I'm talking about, 5%, 6%, 7% contribution
18:52 would be there for the same store sales growth.
18:54 Plus expansion and e-commerce is expanding.
18:56 This year e-commerce has given 2.5x
18:58 as compared to the last year.
19:00 And we are going to maintain it.
19:01 So that's the simple number.
19:02 5%, 6%, 7% of the sales growth and balance
19:05 coming from the expansion.
19:07 Sure.
19:07 And with regard to new store growth,
19:10 is it going to be different geographies?
19:12 Are you going to stick to the geographies you know well?
19:15 So that's the same.
19:16 We are in 20 states right now.
19:18 And the expansion is going in those states
19:21 because a lot of gaps are there.
19:22 We started just two, three years back in NP.
19:24 NP has a very big potential.
19:26 It's still we are having in Rajasthan.
19:27 Rajasthan is the highest number of store NCR.
19:29 So existing south is not there as of now.
19:32 Going forward next two, three years, later on,
19:34 we'll be there.
19:35 But existing territory here is still expanding.
19:37 And a lot of potential is still there to expand.
19:40 OK.
19:41 Thank you so much, sir.
19:42 It's been a pleasure speaking with you,
19:44 getting all of that perspective.
19:45 But we're completely out of time on this edition
19:47 of the Small and Mid-Cap Show.
19:49 Thanks for joining us and giving us all of that perspective.
19:53 Well, completely out of time, as I did mention, from myself,
19:57 everyone who puts the show together,
19:58 thanks so much for tuning in.
19:59 Stay tuned to NDTV Profit.
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