Election 2024 & Stock Market: BJP जीती तो कौन से शेयर्स चढ़ेंगे? BJP हारी तो मार्केट का क्या होगा?
Election Impact on Stock Market: चुनाव और बाजार का कनेक्शन! चुनाव का बाजार पर कैसा असर? जानिए क्या है #StockMarket और #Election के बीच कनेक्शन अगर BJP की सरकार बनी तो कौनसे शेयर्स में तेजी आएगी? क्या होगा अगर BJP Election 2024 हार गई तो? समझिए Senior Market Analyst, Dr Ravi Singh से...
#elections #stockmarket #LoksabhaElection2024 #Votingday #ElectionsandShareMarket #ElectionImpactOnShareMarket #ElectionResult2024 #Stocks #ElectionStocks
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#elections #stockmarket #LoksabhaElection2024 #Votingday #ElectionsandShareMarket #ElectionImpactOnShareMarket #ElectionResult2024 #Stocks #ElectionStocks
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NewsTranscript
00:00 If we buy on 4th June, we may not get that much profit.
00:02 FIIs are selling here.
00:04 But DIIs are buying a lot.
00:06 If Modi's government continues, we will see a big uptrend.
00:11 Some stocks run on the basis of news, some on the basis of fundamentals.
00:15 Some run on its influence.
00:16 Hi, this is Bhavna and you're watching Good Returns.
00:19 See, wherever there is a movement in the country,
00:21 there is a direct impact on the share market.
00:25 Whether it's a war, inflation, unemployment, or any development in the country,
00:34 we see a direct impact on the share market.
00:37 And now, there are elections in the country.
00:40 Four phases of voting have been done.
00:42 And three more phases of voting are yet to be done.
00:44 Results will come on 4th June.
00:46 But before that, if we talk about May,
00:48 we have seen volatility in the share market in May.
00:51 So, what is the impact of elections on the share market?
00:55 And what should investors pay attention to?
00:58 What strategy should they adopt?
00:59 How should they keep their portfolio at this time?
01:02 We will try to find out all that in detail.
01:04 We have with us Senior Market Analyst, Dr. Ravi Singh,
01:08 who will tell us in detail about the impact of elections on the share market.
01:12 Hello, sir. Hello. Thank you for joining us.
01:15 First of all, we will talk about the basics.
01:18 We have seen a lot of volatility in the market in May.
01:20 Can we consider Lok Sabha elections as a specific reason behind this?
01:24 Or can we consider it from the perspective of China,
01:27 that FIIs are investing in China with their money?
01:31 So, what can be the specific reason behind the fall in the market
01:34 and behind the volatility?
01:36 Look, volatility, down and up,
01:39 first, understand the meaning of volatility.
01:40 Because volatility means that
01:42 there is a sudden increase in down and up.
01:45 Earlier, the market movement was at a very small angle,
01:48 it was in a very limited range.
01:50 But now, the range has increased.
01:52 And the clear reason behind that is,
01:54 you said that it is because of the elections,
01:56 the way people are increasing their participation in the elections,
02:00 sometimes it is good for a party, sometimes it is bad for a party.
02:03 So, because of this,
02:05 because of the uncertainty in the elections,
02:07 the volatility has increased here.
02:08 But behind this, there are at least three other reasons.
02:13 China's FIIs are selling here,
02:15 but the DIIs are buying a lot.
02:18 On the other hand, you will get a clear idea that
02:22 the geopolitical tension has not found a solution.
02:27 On the other hand, the US data that is coming out,
02:31 whether it is jobless claim data or their home data,
02:34 is becoming uncertain.
02:36 And because of this, the US market is not giving much confidence.
02:40 So, the currency fluctuation has increased,
02:43 the impact is on the bond yield.
02:45 So, these are the many reasons that are happening at the same time during the elections,
02:50 because of which you are seeing this volatility or this rise and fall.
02:54 If we look at the voting percentage of 4 phases,
02:57 it was a little less in comparison to 2019.
02:59 At that time, it was around 79,
03:01 this time it was around 66 for 4 phases.
03:04 So, do you consider this to be a reason
03:06 for the volatility of the stock market, that it can also have an impact?
03:09 Absolutely. Everyone's eyes are on the elections at the moment.
03:12 Who will come to the party, how will it be, will it be mixed?
03:16 And why are you seeing this volatility?
03:19 I was talking to someone and his words
03:22 seemed very correct from somewhere because when you look at the figures,
03:25 like at this time, if we talk about the BJP voters,
03:31 then the hot climate that is going on right now,
03:35 people are coming out less and people are feeling from somewhere that
03:38 BJP is coming.
03:39 And maybe that's why the voting percentage has decreased.
03:42 Now, if that voting percentage decreases by a necessary amount,
03:45 then it starts showing red signs for the BJP.
03:48 And if you look at this thing from the other side,
03:51 then in the figures that have come so far,
03:54 this uncertainty is helping the stock market
03:57 to rise and fall again and again from somewhere.
04:01 So, I feel that this uncertainty,
04:03 this percentage of voting is having a complete impact.
04:07 I am remembering Amit Shah's statement that he gave recently.
04:11 He said that whatever is going on in the market right now,
04:14 we should not see the election being linked to it.
04:17 But on the other hand, he also said that
04:18 you should buy before 4th June because the market is going to rise a lot.
04:23 So, what is your take on this statement?
04:26 If we buy on 4th June, then maybe we won't get that much profit.
04:29 But if you plan from today,
04:32 then I am sure that you will definitely get profit.
04:35 And there is a reason behind that
04:37 because the fundamental developments are looking very different.
04:40 If we look at the current data,
04:44 then the selling pressure is decreasing.
04:48 So, now they are also feeling that this uncertainty is decreasing
04:51 and it is clear that the market will run.
04:54 And if the same government continues,
04:57 then you get a clear idea of who will run and who will not.
05:01 That is why I think you are seeing mass buying here.
05:06 And if you look at the participation of retailers for the last 1-2 years,
05:10 then the participation of retailers has increased so much
05:13 that now the selling of FII's does not have much impact.
05:16 Fund houses buy a lot.
05:17 In fact, the one that is seen here in a decontrolled way is RBI.
05:22 Look, Shakti Kantadas has had 2 tenures.
05:25 No one does the 3rd tenure or there are no chances.
05:29 And at this time, the government is not coming to its regulation.
05:32 So, somewhere I see a negative.
05:34 I see that the entire RBI is in the cleanup.
05:40 And because of that cleanup,
05:42 there are many statements that the market is not liking.
05:46 And that is why the market is seeing a sell-off.
05:49 So, if you look at the complete reasons,
05:51 then this is also a big impact.
05:53 It is a big impact, right?
05:54 Look, the election results are coming on 4th June.
05:57 In this, there can be two situations.
05:59 BJP will either win over the government
06:02 or the Indian alliances will make their government.
06:05 So, what do you think?
06:06 If we try to understand one by one,
06:08 how will the market react in both the situations?
06:11 Look, if I take both the scenarios,
06:15 so, let's take your example first.
06:17 If the Modi government is formed,
06:19 then what will happen to the market?
06:20 Look, if Modi's government continues,
06:23 then we will see a big uptrend.
06:25 And the big uptrend will be,
06:27 I think, a rally of at least 10%
06:32 which will be of a single day.
06:33 That is, 5-7% will be on an immediate basis.
06:36 If we look at it from today,
06:37 then you will see a rally of 16-18%.
06:40 Now, if we reverse this scenario,
06:43 if the mixed government comes,
06:44 then you will see only the fundamental stocks remaining.
06:48 Otherwise, a sell-off will be seen as much as the opposite
06:51 and in which the market can open down from 5% to 7%.
06:55 So, this scenario is clearly seen here.
06:58 And I feel that this is why,
07:00 whenever Modi talks or his chances of winning increase,
07:07 the market becomes happy and starts waving green.
07:10 And as soon as there is a little uncertainty,
07:12 it becomes sad again and starts waving red.
07:17 So, there is a little more uncertainty from somewhere.
07:19 What impact does a stable government have on the share market?
07:23 When a government remains stable,
07:25 how does the share market react?
07:27 What does the share market want in terms of government?
07:30 What a common man wants is the biggest question.
07:33 If there is a stable government,
07:34 its policies will be stable.
07:36 That policy will be connected to the common man.
07:40 After 10 years of Modi's government,
07:42 you saw a rally of up to 54% in the stock market.
07:46 If I compare the mid-cap and small-cap,
07:49 then in one year, the mid-cap and small-cap
07:51 saw a rally of 55% to 45%.
07:54 A normal index like Nifty surprised you by 18%.
08:00 So, a stable government means
08:03 that the economy keeps moving well.
08:06 And you get the decisions of the policies on time.
08:10 If there is an unstable government,
08:11 the uncertainty will increase.
08:13 And we have an example.
08:15 Look at Eurozone, which used to lead at one time.
08:17 What is their situation today?
08:19 Now, let's not even talk about Pakistan.
08:21 It is much better.
08:22 On the other hand, if we look at the US,
08:24 the same situation is the same.
08:26 Because of the elections,
08:28 the US has been lagging behind in the last 10 years
08:31 because of its policies.
08:33 And the political stability is not that strong there.
08:37 The leaders are not that strong
08:39 which is why there is an impact on the market.
08:42 So, how long do you think this volatility
08:44 can continue even after the results?
08:47 Or will there be some stability after that
08:49 and there will be no volatility?
08:51 I think that in the first 3 months,
08:54 you will see a strong upward trend in the market.
08:57 And after the budget comes,
09:00 when a new government is formed,
09:03 after that time,
09:04 when the storm is going on,
09:07 you see some things flying forcefully
09:10 and some things flying without force.
09:13 The same happens in the stock market.
09:15 Some stocks move on the basis of news,
09:17 some on the basis of fundamentals,
09:19 and some on the basis of the wind.
09:21 So, the wind that was moving here,
09:23 will come back to the ground.
09:25 So, you will see this situation too.
09:28 But you will see this after the budget.
09:30 And I think that it is very important
09:33 to know, recognize and understand this.
09:37 Now, let's talk about the sector.
09:40 Let's say, a case,
09:41 BJP's government has come,
09:44 after that, which sectors will have a high trend
09:47 and which sectors will have a low trend?
09:51 It is a very controversial topic.
09:53 It is a tough topic to discuss.
09:56 But, it is important to know,
09:57 in the scenario that we are seeing now,
10:00 I think that if the BJP government continues,
10:03 the way we saw Amit Shah's statement,
10:06 it is clear that PSUs will shine.
10:09 And PSUs will shine, not shine,
10:10 but shine a lot.
10:11 Now, which sectors will come?
10:13 See, the banking counter's money,
10:16 everyone's money is running on it.
10:17 Because, whether you look at power,
10:21 infrastructure,
10:22 or energy counter,
10:24 the way EV and especially,
10:27 auto sector's growth is seen here,
10:30 it means that,
10:30 there will not be much changes in these.
10:34 And the aggression,
10:35 the uptrend that is going on now,
10:36 that uptrend will be seen to continue here.
10:39 But, who will be sad?
10:41 If we come to that,
10:42 I think that,
10:43 a reality counter will go into an overbought situation.
10:47 And in the long term,
10:48 I am not talking about the short term,
10:50 I mean, if the Modi government is formed,
10:52 and stays for 5 years,
10:53 then in the coming 3 years,
10:55 that uptrend will not be seen in the reality counter.
10:58 You will see it in the infrastructure,
11:00 but in the reality counter,
11:01 that uptrend will not be seen.
11:03 The other one is the IT counter,
11:04 which is also struggling.
11:05 The outside,
11:06 the Mandi is also getting affected.
11:08 And it is clearly seen at the domestic level.
11:11 And from that also,
11:12 a recovery can be seen here.
11:14 The third segment,
11:16 which will neither rise nor fall,
11:18 that is, the ones who are high will remain there,
11:20 if they come in that,
11:21 then I think that,
11:22 the companies of FMCG,
11:23 they will not see much volatility.
11:26 Now, I will reverse this question and ask you.
11:28 If the India Alliance government is formed,
11:31 I don't know how many chances are there or not,
11:33 but still, if they form their government,
11:35 then in which sectors can we see a sharp rise?
11:39 The top,
11:41 which I was saying,
11:42 you will see it falling,
11:44 I think that will become stable.
11:45 That is, the reality will be seen to be a little bit stagnant,
11:48 but the reality has become a lot of boom.
11:51 I think a little profit booking should come,
11:53 a little stock should come down here.
11:55 That is the first.
11:56 The second is,
11:57 which sector,
11:59 the stocks that I have discussed,
12:01 in them, the impact of the government project is seen.
12:04 But,
12:05 it is very demanding on the fundamental structure.
12:08 Like, the demand for power is not going to be less.
12:11 So, power is our necessity.
12:13 Mining is our necessity.
12:15 Banking counters will run,
12:17 but some particular banks will run,
12:19 maybe in private banks,
12:20 you will see more rallies.
12:21 But,
12:22 overall, the profit booking that will be seen,
12:24 or if we see something like that,
12:26 then I think that,
12:27 here,
12:28 once,
12:29 energy counter,
12:30 and the EV and auto sector that are growing,
12:33 in them, a little drop can be seen.
12:35 And, especially, the infrastructure sector can get a big shock.
12:40 And, in them, many companies' performance can become poor.
12:43 Or, they can have to face many things.
12:46 If you are understanding this directly or indirectly,
12:49 then,
12:50 the one that was seen,
12:51 that maybe they got a project,
12:53 because of that, they got to see a rally,
12:54 then that project,
12:55 can be in a little decline.
12:57 And, its impact can be seen in the shares of those companies.
13:00 Now, this question is for investors,
13:03 that what strategy should investors adopt at this time?
13:06 What should their portfolio be like at this time,
13:08 before the elections,
13:10 and after the elections,
13:11 till the budget,
13:12 what should their portfolio be like?
13:13 What should be the strategy?
13:15 Look, I follow a simple formula,
13:18 and I share it with you.
13:22 I don't know where the market is going.
13:24 It will go up or down,
13:25 which government will come, I don't know.
13:27 But, our basic demands will be there.
13:30 The basic stock market will be there.
13:32 And, if I see that,
13:33 I select 5 sectors,
13:35 and from 5 sectors,
13:36 I pick 5 stocks from each sector.
13:40 That means, I have 5 sectors in total,
13:42 and from 1 sector,
13:44 I have 25 stocks.
13:46 That means, your portfolio should have 25 stocks.
13:49 First, whether you are investing 1 lakh rupees,
13:52 or whether you are investing 1 crore rupees,
13:55 or you are investing a bigger amount.
13:57 If you keep more stocks,
13:58 then also you will be troubled.
13:59 So, take a basket of 25 stocks.
14:02 Now, who should be taken?
14:03 We just discussed.
14:04 No sector will move without banking,
14:07 because it is needed.
14:09 If we come to the second counter,
14:10 we said mining,
14:12 because it is a demand,
14:13 which will not be reduced.
14:15 If we come to the third counter,
14:17 then we feel that,
14:18 according to the overall growth,
14:21 power sector and energy sector
14:23 will be seen together.
14:25 But, if you want to run it very safely,
14:28 and not to take a lot of impact in the market,
14:30 then you should use the pharma sector.
14:33 Because, in the pharma sector,
14:34 many companies are doing well.
14:36 Many companies have spent on research,
14:38 and its impact is visible.
14:39 So, I feel that,
14:41 you should also take the pharma sector.
14:44 Now, let's come to the auto sector.
14:45 This is the last sector,
14:46 because I have told you about 4 sectors.
14:48 In the auto sector,
14:49 you should distribute the auto and auto auxiliaries.
14:53 That means, their parts.
14:54 There is a population of 125 crores.
14:57 The sale of cars is making a new record every year.
14:59 Even today, there is a waiting period.
15:01 So, there will be a fundamental demand.
15:03 So, I feel that,
15:05 you should take 5 stocks from this sector.
15:08 Do not take small stocks,
15:10 whose names are not heard.
15:12 Make a basket of these stocks.
15:13 Wherever the market goes,
15:15 whoever the government becomes,
15:16 this stability will keep you stable,
15:19 and will help you in your profitability.
15:21 Absolutely.
15:22 See, the share market is such a thing,
15:24 which is called a priest.
15:25 It tells you the mood of the market,
15:27 what will happen, what will not happen.
15:28 What do you think,
15:29 what is the mood of the share market,
15:31 who will be the government?
15:32 See, the share market is showing its smile,
15:36 it is showing its readiness.
15:38 According to that,
15:39 the current government should continue.
15:42 And what is your take,
15:43 what are your personal views?
15:45 See, there is a slogan of theirs,
15:48 which I will definitely say here,
15:49 which they have given a slogan of 400.
15:51 If we talk about 400,
15:54 it seems to be extremely positive.
15:57 But I feel that,
15:59 if we look at the overall structure,
16:01 it is not a strong number,
16:03 but the numbers that came last time,
16:05 even if the numbers are a little less,
16:07 it will not have that much impact.
16:09 But it is clear that,
16:11 the current government is getting a lot.
16:14 If the slogan of 400,
16:16 which Amit Shah had recently said,
16:18 that 400 will definitely come,
16:20 he said this after the voting of 4 pages.
16:23 So, at that time,
16:24 the share market can have a very different impact,
16:28 if it comes beyond 400.
16:30 See, if 400,
16:32 this is a theoretical question,
16:34 and I will give a theoretical answer to it.
16:36 If the BJP government comes close to 400,
16:39 then its impact,
16:41 the rally that you will see in the current market,
16:44 as I said,
16:44 you can see a rally of 5 to 8% and 10%.
16:48 That rally,
16:49 instead of 5%,
16:50 you can increase it by 1.5% or 2%.
16:53 If you look at some stock specific,
16:55 then their rally tenure will increase.
16:57 It will increase.
16:58 This will be the impact.
17:00 Thank you so much, sir.
17:00 Thank you for joining us.
17:02 So, these are some things
17:03 that investors should keep in mind at this time.
17:06 And Ravi Singh has just told you,
17:09 that when the results come on 4th June,
17:11 both the conditions,
17:12 whether it becomes the BJP government,
17:14 or it becomes the India Alliances,
17:16 whichever government is formed,
17:18 how will the market react,
17:20 we have understood that in detail.
17:22 I hope you liked this information.
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