八点最热报 | 特朗普时代引爆，打了6年无硝烟的中美贸易战继续升温，最后会不会越斗越失控？中美之间最终会否演变成一场实刀实枪，出动飞机航母坦克大炮的一场实体战争呢？（主播：梁宝仪）
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 Before watching the video, I remind you that there is more content on the Hotpot website.
00:04 On May 14, the U.S. launched an upgraded version of the New Round of Taxation War against China.
00:09 New energy products worth about $180 billion from China,
00:14 including electric vehicles, solar panels, semiconductors, etc.,
00:18 increased tariffs by 25% to 100%.
00:22 China did not surrender and did not fall in the trade war against China for six years.
00:27 How much will the U.S. increase the sanctions and how much will the damage be?
00:31 Can we beat China? In our two-day review report,
00:35 economists have made an analysis.
00:38 The Taiwan-Pacific era has been raging for six years.
00:40 The Sino-US trade war without a smoke will continue to heat up.
00:44 Will it eventually lose control?
00:47 Will there be a real war between China and the United States,
00:51 which will eventually evolve into a real war with a real gun and a real aircraft carrier and a real tank cannon?
00:56 After the Sino-US trade war began,
00:57 many international diplomatic policy scholars raised the so-called "Consolidated Trap" theory.
01:03 Consolidated Trap, an ancient Greek historian,
01:06 believes that when a new rising power challenges its dominant power,
01:11 the dominant will respond to the threat with war.
01:17 The United States is now facing the challenge of China's rise.
01:21 Historians have also summarized that for more than 1,500 years,
01:25 a new rising power has challenged the historical case of its dominant power 15 times.
01:31 Of these, 11 times were war-torn.
01:35 Will the world's first and second largest economies,
01:41 which are now at war with China,
01:43 eventually re-enact history and lead to a war?
01:45 Some are worried that it may happen,
01:47 and some are objectively convinced that it is impossible.
01:51 I don't think it's possible.
01:53 Because although in history there are many so-called "big countries",
01:57 then the old man got up, the boss was unhappy,
01:59 they fought.
02:00 This happened, but now this era is different.
02:03 Now our war has nuclear bombs.
02:05 Before, there was no such thing.
02:06 After World War II, only atomic bombs were fired at the end.
02:10 But a country does not need to attack its enemy.
02:14 It just needs to detonate a nuclear bomb in its own country.
02:17 Everyone dies together.
02:18 The whole earth is over.
02:19 Sino-US war will definitely happen.
02:21 But it may not be a physical war.
02:25 We now see that China and the US have trade wars,
02:28 financial wars, and technological wars.
02:30 Now there are a lot of saliva wars.
02:32 But there are fewer physical wars.
02:35 You look at some of the previous wars,
02:37 the Korean War in the 1950s,
02:39 the Vietnam War in the 1960s and 1970s.
02:43 China and the US have participated.
02:45 But until now,
02:47 you look at the nuclear war or the conflict in the United States,
02:51 after the September 11th incident,
02:53 the US may have changed its strategy.
02:55 It does not participate in these wars.
02:57 It now prefers to do a political back-up.
03:01 It is a back-up.
03:02 Slowly, it may give some support in terms of money and weapons.
03:07 But it does not participate in physical wars.
03:11 Trump ignited.
03:12 Will the Sino-US trade war,
03:15 which Biden upgraded the front line, be more and more out of control?
03:17 Will it eventually become a physical war that opens fire on China and the US?
03:22 Both of the two experts believe that the odds are very low.
03:26 Lin Fuyan also believes that the biggest difference between the international environment and history
03:31 is that China and the US have nuclear weapons.
03:33 Once the nuclear weapons are detonated, the world will be over.
03:36 So China and the US cannot start a war.
03:38 And Zhong Zhiqiang also believes that
03:39 after the September 11th incident,
03:41 the US has changed its strategy to turn to a political back-up.
03:45 Therefore, the two observers prefer to believe that
03:48 the possibility of a third-party war in China and the US
03:52 is higher than a direct war with China and the US.
03:55 I don't think the US will directly start a war with China.
03:59 Because China has nuclear weapons.
04:00 This is its difference.
04:01 So when the US fought against the Soviet Union,
04:04 it was afraid to start a war.
04:05 Because both sides have nuclear weapons.
04:07 So the chance of a direct war with China is very, very low.
04:13 But it doesn't rule out the so-called war between agents.
04:16 It is possible that a war will be started with an agent.
04:20 If it's an agent, it's a relatively small-scale war.
04:23 It's a war of the region, but it will lead to a war that will destroy the Chinese economy.
04:28 That possibility exists.
04:29 If you say that a real war between China and the US is very unlikely to happen,
04:34 because first, you have to fight, you have to look at the battlefield.
04:37 In China, it's still a national war between the US and China.
04:39 They all refuse to back down.
04:40 If you fight in another country,
04:43 you will lose the advantage.
04:44 So it's impossible.
04:45 It's most likely to be in the third country,
04:47 or the region, to carry out their war.
04:50 It may not be good for the conflict between Taiwan and China,
04:53 or the conflict between North Korea and South Korea.
04:56 It may cause a physical war to some extent between China and the US.
05:00 Although history is always amazingly similar,
05:07 history may not necessarily repeat itself.
05:10 Because China and the US are both countries with nuclear weapons,
05:13 and because of the development of nuclear weapons,
05:14 the competition between the current world leaders and the second world leaders
05:17 and the history of the past has essentially been the biggest difference.
05:22 Therefore, both observers believe
05:23 that the chances of China and the US directly fighting with nuclear weapons are almost impossible.
05:29 Because once China and the US fight, the world will be destroyed.
05:33 If China and the US can't fight a war with a loud gunfire and bullets flying all over the sky to end the dispute,
05:38 how long will the Sino-US trade war, which has been going on for six years without a break,
05:43 last?
05:47 Stay tuned for tomorrow's exclusive report.
05:49 (Music)
05:52 (Music)