Kementerian Keuangan Siapkan APBN 2025 Era Prabowo-Gibran
Pemerintah melalui Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati secara resmi telah menyampaikan Kerangka Ekonomi Makro dan Pokok-Pokok Kebijakan Fiskal atau KEM-PPKF 2025 yang disampaikan dalam Sidang Paripurna DPR RI.
Dalam KEM-PPKF 2025, Menkeu menyampaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi RI era Prabowo berkisar 5,1-5,5 persen. Angka itu dirancang seiring dengan optimisme atas kerja keras dan komitmen bersama dalam menjaga stabilitas ekonomi serta komitmen untuk melakukan terobosan kebijakan pada tahun 2025. Utamanya, ditopang oleh terkendalinya inflasi, kelanjutan dan perluasan hilirisasi SDA, pengembangan industri kendaraan listrik, dan digitalisasi yang didukung oleh perbaikan iklim investasi dan kualitas SDM.
Menkeu juga mengatakan dengan mempertimbangkan risiko dan ketidakpastian di pasar keuangan global yang masih tinggi, yield SBN Tenor 10 Tahun diperkirakan berada pada kisaran 6,9% - 7,3%. Adapun nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS diperkirakan berada di rentang Rp15.300 - Rp16.000. Sementara, inflasi diperkirakan dapat dikendalikan dikisaran 1,5% - 3,5%. Sedangkan dengan mencermati tensi geopolitik yang saat ini masih berlanjut maka harga minyak mentah Indonesia diperkirakan sebesar USD75 - USD85 per barel.
Dalam KEM-PPKF 2025, Menkeu menyampaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi RI era Prabowo berkisar 5,1-5,5 persen. Angka itu dirancang seiring dengan optimisme atas kerja keras dan komitmen bersama dalam menjaga stabilitas ekonomi serta komitmen untuk melakukan terobosan kebijakan pada tahun 2025. Utamanya, ditopang oleh terkendalinya inflasi, kelanjutan dan perluasan hilirisasi SDA, pengembangan industri kendaraan listrik, dan digitalisasi yang didukung oleh perbaikan iklim investasi dan kualitas SDM.
Menkeu juga mengatakan dengan mempertimbangkan risiko dan ketidakpastian di pasar keuangan global yang masih tinggi, yield SBN Tenor 10 Tahun diperkirakan berada pada kisaran 6,9% - 7,3%. Adapun nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS diperkirakan berada di rentang Rp15.300 - Rp16.000. Sementara, inflasi diperkirakan dapat dikendalikan dikisaran 1,5% - 3,5%. Sedangkan dengan mencermati tensi geopolitik yang saat ini masih berlanjut maka harga minyak mentah Indonesia diperkirakan sebesar USD75 - USD85 per barel.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indrawati, Minister of Finance, has announced the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy goals for 2025.
00:17Menkyo also announced the economic growth.
00:19In the era of Prabowo, it will fluctuate between 5.1% and 5.5%.
00:25Indrawati, Minister of Finance, has announced the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy goals for 2025.
00:42In the era of Prabowo, it will fluctuate between 5.1% and 5.5%.
00:51The number is planned in line with optimism for hard work and joint commitment to maintain economic stability
00:57as well as a commitment to make a policy breakthrough in 2025.
01:03There is also a major economic growth supported by the control of inflation,
01:07the continuation and expansion of the hilarization of the SDA,
01:09the development of the electric vehicle industry and digitalization supported by the improvement of investment climate and quality of the SDF.
01:17We are optimistic.
01:19With hard work and joint commitment to maintain economic stability
01:24and a commitment to make a policy breakthrough,
01:28the economic growth is estimated to reach 5.1% to 5.5%
01:36There is also a major economic growth supported by the control of inflation,
01:40the continuation and expansion of the hilarization of the SDF,
01:43the development of the electric vehicle industry and digitalization
01:49and the improvement of investment climate and quality of the SDF.
01:58Menkyo also said that by considering the risks and uncertainties in the global financial market that are still high,
02:04the ten-year SBN tenor yield is estimated to be around 6.9% to 7.3%.
02:11The exchange rate for the US dollar is estimated to be around IDR 15,300 to IDR 16,000.
02:18IDX Channel coverage team.
02:24Yes, Mr. Mirso, to discuss our interesting topic today,
02:26the Ministry of Finance prepares the APBN 2025 for the era of Prabowo-Gibran.
02:30We have been connected via Zoom with Mr. Tukur Rifqi.
02:33He is a macroeconomic researcher and a financial market expert,
02:36LPM, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia.
02:40Hello, good morning, Mr. Rifqi.
02:43Good morning, Mr. Pras. How are you?
02:45Good morning, Mr. Rifqi. Thank you for the opportunity.
02:47It is interesting that we are talking about the new era of the government,
02:52where the current government is preparing for the transition period,
02:58from various policies, financial management, etc.
03:02The Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani, has said and predicted that
03:06the APBN 2025 deficit is around 2.45% to 2.82% of GDP.
03:14And it is planned with a wider deficit,
03:17so that the next president, Prabowo Subianto,
03:20can expand in the use of budget.
03:23How do you see it, LPM UI,
03:27with the efforts that have been made by the current government
03:30for the transition period?
03:33Okay, so if we talk about the APBN transition,
03:38this is actually an activity that is always done
03:45when there is a change in the government.
03:48For example, in 2014,
03:52when the government changed from the SBI era to the Jokowi era.
03:56So the transition from the APBN to this new government
04:00is an event that is quite repeated right now.
04:08What then becomes the contents of the APBN transition?
04:13Of course, one of them is to accommodate the programs
04:17that the government plans to run.
04:21We know that at least so far,
04:23although it has not formally established and implemented the program in the APBN,
04:29we have seen, for example, several programs planned by Prabowo and Gibran.
04:36Where mostly these are programs from the export side,
04:41if we talk about the fiscal aspect.
04:43So then there needs to be an expansion or expansion of the fiscal space
04:48to then accommodate various plans for the program.
04:55This is what we see from the expansion of the APBN deficit.
05:00Actually, if we look at the expansion of the APBN deficit itself,
05:04it is still below 3%.
05:06So it is still below the limit of the APBN deficit mandate,
05:10which actually has no problem.
05:12So if we talk about spending,
05:15actually the bigger the spending,
05:18of course it will have a multiplier effect on the economy.
05:22However, the 3% deficit or the 3% deficit limit
05:27must continue to be maintained
05:30so that our fiscal discipline can continue to be maintained
05:35even though there is a regime change.
05:38So this is actually an expansion of the fiscal deficit
05:43to accommodate the potential programs that will enter,
05:47but still in a corridor that is prudent from the fiscal side.
05:51Okay, if it is still below the 3% deficit target,
05:55because this needs to be respected too,
05:57is it because there is a new program that will enter
06:00as promised by the next government?
06:02But what about the existing conditions?
06:04Global conditions that are still an obstacle for the Indonesian government
06:08in increasing export efficiency,
06:10then there is an escalation of the US-China trade war
06:15that also continues to increase.
06:17What about the global and internal conditions
06:20that can be impeded,
06:22can be at least a challenge for the next government's spending
06:27by using APBN next year?
06:30Okay, if we talk about the context of the development of global conditions with APBN,
06:36of course there are several main transmission channels.
06:40So we may see in recent years,
06:43global geopolitical tensions,
06:45uncertainty of global conditions,
06:47this is reflected in one of the rising commodity prices.
06:52We know, for example, during the Russian-Ukrainian war
06:55or the tension of geopolitics in the Middle East,
06:58the price of oil has increased.
07:00The increase in oil prices then has an impact on APBN,
07:05where our spending has to increase
07:07because we know we are still a net oil importer.
07:11This is one of the risks that will arise against APBN
07:16if the global conditions are getting uncertain.
07:19On the other hand, if the global tensions are still quite high,
07:24then there will be a potential for our trading values to weaken.
07:29Weakening of trading values will certainly worsen our import values.
07:33It means that imports will become more expensive,
07:35there will be inflation in the country,
07:37which then the government needs to intensify social security networks
07:42or social protection.
07:44This will also have an impact on greater spending.
07:47So indeed, APBN's post-tax posts
07:51are normally prepared to be a shock absorber.
07:55It means that if there is a shock,
07:57both at the domestic level and at the global level,
08:00APBN is ready to enter to maintain the purchasing power of the people,
08:04the welfare of the people, and the economic conditions so that it remains stable.
08:09Now, the combination of the potential of the global shock,
08:13domestic shock, and this transition
08:15will certainly create more fiscal challenges.
08:19Now, how can these challenges be faced?
08:22This is what we need to look at again in the coming period.
08:26This is still RAPBN 2025.
08:30But then, at this time,
08:32there must be certain budget reallocations
08:36that must be done by the next government.
08:39So the current government is only preparing its posture.
08:42When implementing it, adjustments will be needed
08:46if it is needed by the next government.
08:48For example, when we experience the COVID-19 pandemic,
08:52there are many so-called refocusing and reallocations.
08:56This means that the budget from a certain post
08:59is allocated for other budgets that are more urgent.
09:02Now, fiscal maneuvers like this
09:05will later become the discretion of the next government.
09:09The current government is preparing the fiscal
09:13with the available space at the moment.
09:16Of course, the anticipation space has been integrated into the fiscal,
09:22but the effectiveness will depend on the progress in the fiscal period.
09:28It means that the preparation is ready.
09:31What will be the use of the RAPBN deficit?
09:36What is the real condition at the moment?
09:39And the government also targets the spending
09:41in the range of 14.59% to 15.18%.
09:45What will be the direction of government spending next year?
09:50We will discuss it in the next segment.
09:52We will take a short break.
09:53We will be right back after this.
10:14You must have watched the market review.
10:16In the next segment, we will provide you with data
10:18related to the position or basic assumption of the macroeconomic in the RAPBN 2025.
10:25You can watch the complete data on your television screen.
10:28We can see the economic growth.
10:30Next year, it is estimated to be 5.1% to 5.5%.
10:34Meanwhile, the yield or the result of the 10-year value of the country
10:38is 6.9% to 7.3%.
10:41The exchange rate is IDR 15,300 to IDR 16,000 per US dollar.
10:47Meanwhile, the inflation is IDR 1.5% to 3.5%.
10:51The HICP is IDR 75 to 85 per US dollar per barrel.
10:55The oil lifting is IDR 580,000 to IDR 600,000 per barrel per day.
11:01The gas lifting is IDR 1,300 to 1,047 per barrel per day.
11:08Next, the development target of the RAPBN next year.
11:11The level of unemployment is 4.5% to 5%.
11:16The poverty is 7% to 8%.
11:19The Gini ratio is 0.379 to 0.382.
11:24The human capital index is 0.56.
11:27The exchange rate of farmers is IDR 113 to IDR 115.
11:30And the exchange rate of fishermen is IDR 104 to IDR 105.
11:33We will continue the discussion with Mr. Gerifki,
11:37a researcher in macroeconomics and financial markets
11:40at LPM FEB Universitas Indonesia.
11:44Mr. Gerifki, let's break it down.
11:46This is related to our macroeconomic assumptions
11:49that have been proposed for 2025.
11:52How is your analysis? Is it realistic enough?
11:56Or do you see that the challenges will be quite obvious?
12:02If we look at the RAPBN 2025,
12:06especially from the economic growth target,
12:09which is 5.1% to 5.5%,
12:12it's actually quite normal.
12:15In other words, the growth target is often above the realization.
12:20It's also called a target.
12:22So, it's aiming at that.
12:24But the realization can usually be accurate,
12:28or it can be a bit below.
12:30So, economic growth is actually
12:33what the government is trying to catch,
12:38in this case, the APBN.
12:40But this is not an estimate that will be a benchmark for next year.
12:47If we look at other assumptions,
12:51such as SBN yield, exchange rate, and inflation,
12:54it's actually quite realistic.
12:56Because this is more in the direction of assumptions
12:59that are used to formulate policies.
13:04The rest is still within the normal range.
13:08If we look at, for example, inflation,
13:11this year and last year,
13:14it still seems to be within the range of 1.5% to 3.5%.
13:18Likewise, the exchange rate is quite wide,
13:21from IDR 15,900 to IDR 16,000.
13:24So, all of this is within a reasonable range,
13:28if we look at it.
13:29So, then, this is what we can assess
13:33that the APBN that was formulated for 2025 is relatively realistic.
13:38Okay.
13:39In your opinion, will the APBN 2025 be a base capital?
13:42Is it a strong policy for the next government?
13:44Because the target for next year is 5.5%.
13:48Will it be 1% to 8%?
13:50Is it a strong policy with this capital?
13:54If we talk about the target that we see in the APBN for 2025,
13:59actually, there is nothing too different
14:02with the APBN posture in the previous year.
14:05If we look at, for example, the APBN 2024,
14:08APBN 2023, APBN 2022,
14:10all of these assumptions are actually quite reasonable
14:15and quite within the range that followed the development at that time.
14:21Then, if we can say that this is a fairly good capital,
14:26this is a fairly good capital.
14:28So, in context, it is to maintain our pre-economy conditions in 2025.
14:34If then, in three years, 8% growth is targeted,
14:38this is what I think is actually quite unrealistic.
14:428% growth is not something that can be done naturally
14:47or aggregated in three years.
14:55We have never seen, for example,
14:57a condition where economic growth can grow that high
15:01in such a short time and then not cause a spike in pre-economy.
15:06At least, the possibility of inflation will jump drastically if that happens.
15:11Second, because our deficit will widen significantly
15:14if this is paid for by foreign investment.
15:19So far, we have not seen that there is a potential
15:22for domestic investment to fund growth up to 8%.
15:26So, this is indeed a condition that is quite unrealistic
15:30if we talk in the next three years.
15:33If we want to grow 8% in 5-10 years to come,
15:37maybe it feels more realistic.
15:39Because then, for example, we have been for decades,
15:43for example, growing 5%, then we want to jump to 8%.
15:47This requires a very disruptive and significant structural change.
15:52And this will certainly cause instability in several aspects of pre-economy.
15:57So, if we talk in APBN 2025, this is quite good and reasonable.
16:03But in the context of reaching 8%,
16:05this is not something that can push the possibility to be more realistic.
16:12Okay, but if we look at what can be a booster for Indonesia's economic movement,
16:16what are its pillars?
16:17What sectors are still the pillars?
16:19Because we know that investment is still going on.
16:22The red carpet.
16:23And the first quarter, the achievement was also extraordinary.
16:28With millions of jobs, also above 500,000 people.
16:32According to you, is this what can be a booster for the manufacturing industry?
16:36Or maybe the new industrial areas that are being built
16:39can be a driving force for Indonesia's economic growth,
16:42to reach 8% if we talk about the next government target.
16:47Okay, if we talk about growth targets,
16:50actually what can push our growth is the increase in productivity.
16:55We often talk about the manufacturing sector or the manufacturing industry
16:59as an economic growth engine.
17:02That's true.
17:03Because the manufacturing sector or this industry
17:06is the easiest to be pushed,
17:08the increase in productivity and absorption of jobs.
17:11So then, people who used to be less productive,
17:14by entering the manufacturing sector,
17:17the increase in productivity can happen faster.
17:21But if we look at the historical trend,
17:24we also experience premature deindustrialization.
17:29The productivity of our own manufacturing sector continues to decline.
17:33And if we look at other sectors,
17:35such as the service sector,
17:37our service sector is mainly focused on low productivity services.
17:43For example, trading or hotel restaurants.
17:47Not sectors such as information technology,
17:51or transportation, or finance.
17:55So, we do see that the current conditions
17:58overall have low productivity.
18:01What needs to be pushed?
18:03From the sectoral point of view,
18:04the manufacturing industry needs to be pushed to be more productive.
18:08From the service side, we also need to push
18:12so that the growth of the high value added service sector
18:16can be higher and absorb more jobs.
18:20That's from the demand side.
18:26Yes, hello.
18:29Mike.
18:30Mr. Riffi.
18:32From the education side.
18:35Yes, hello.
18:36I lost your voice, Mr. Riffi.
18:38So, there are still many obstacles that need to be addressed
18:42when we look at the achievements
18:43towards the economic growth target of Indonesia
18:46up to 8%.
18:47The manufacturing sector needs to be pushed again,
18:50but what needs to be addressed is that
18:52with extraordinary efforts,
18:54but there are also impacts
18:56that may be related to our economic activities.
18:59As you said, there is also a potential increase in investment.
19:02Right, Mr. Riffi?
19:04Yes, that's right.
19:05So, if we want to push productivity,
19:08the problem is not always in the sector,
19:13whether it's manufacturing or service.
19:15But from the supply side,
19:18we need to increase productivity.
19:21From the skill improvement,
19:23workforce, refining,
19:25for example, vocational programs,
19:27this needs to be pushed,
19:29so that our productive workers
19:32can also be productive in the labor market.
19:36So, on both sides,
19:37we are still experiencing productivity issues
19:41that if not solved,
19:42it seems a bit difficult for us
19:44to achieve ambitious economic growth.
19:47Mr. Riffi, if we talk about the shopping that has been targeted,
19:5014.59% to 15.18%,
19:53how about the direction of state spending?
19:55Meanwhile, on the other hand,
19:56the state budget has also been cut.
19:59How do you intend to increase the state budget?
20:06Okay, if we look at the shopping side,
20:08of course, there are a lot of shopping
20:10that are focused on increasing productivity.
20:13Education, health, infrastructure,
20:16all of these are continued,
20:18and we have seen a positive impact
20:21over the past few years.
20:23But this is not enough.
20:25We need to see, for example,
20:27from the side of the budget absorption in the region,
20:30it needs to continue to be increased.
20:32And indeed, we need to see that
20:35fiscal or state budget
20:37is not the main supporter of economic growth.
20:41We need to think about
20:43how later on,
20:45investment can be attracted.
20:47Not later on,
20:48we constantly rely on the state budget for investment.
20:51That's it.
20:52If we talk about, for example,
20:53increase in investment,
20:55increase in the productivity of labor,
20:58as a result of the existence of the FDI,
21:00we are talking about regulation,
21:03related to the ease of investment,
21:07related to legal certainty,
21:08and other aspects that are outside the budget.
21:12But it does need to be amended
21:15so that the impact of this budget spending
21:17can also be optimal.
21:19Okay, that's it.
21:20Hopefully in the next government,
21:21it can be optimal to use the budget
21:23that has been prepared by the government
21:25at this time,
21:26so that the results can really be felt
21:28by the general public
21:29on the economic growth side,
21:31the creation of jobs, of course,
21:33and also the welfare of the people
21:35throughout the country.
21:36Mr. Rifqi, thank you very much for your time
21:38and sharing that you have conveyed
21:39to the audience today.
21:41Congratulations on continuing your activities again
21:43and greetings.
21:44Mr. Rifqi.
21:45Thank you, Mr. Praha.
21:46Greetings.
21:47Yes, audience,
21:48it's been an hour since I accompanied you
21:50in Market Review.
21:51I am Prahaset Yowibowo
21:52with the Portuguese Labor Union UNODERI.
21:54Thank you and see you later.
22:18Thank you.
22:19Thank you.