• 6 months ago
Transcript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - Joe, let's start with Marvin Harrison Jr.
00:07 because this is the one where I think the book
00:08 is gonna take in a windfall of handle.
00:11 How do we handicap Marvin Harrison Jr.?
00:13 - Well, it's tricky because the expectations are very high.
00:18 We talked about him.
00:18 I already have him ranked as a wide receiver one
00:20 and Vegas is kind of telling you the same thing
00:23 because these over-unders that they set for the props
00:26 are basically projections and they're setting them already
00:29 at a thousand yards receiving.
00:31 And I think he can go over this in his first season.
00:33 If he's healthy and Kyler Murray healthy,
00:35 regardless of the offensive line issues,
00:37 and there are issues there still to work out.
00:40 It's hard to imagine not going over a thousand yards
00:42 this year, just from the sheer volume he's gonna have.
00:45 And let's also keep in mind too,
00:47 in our brains we keep thinking of a thousand yards
00:49 the last couple of decades as a 16 game season, right?
00:53 Well, now it's not 17.
00:55 So you have an extra game to get a thousand yards.
00:57 That used to be the standard, right?
00:58 The thousand yards of the 16 game season.
01:01 Well, now you have an extra game to get.
01:02 And I think he can absolutely do that.
01:04 Minus one 10 right now, I would go with the over on this.
01:07 I think it's very reasonable for him to get to that number.
01:10 And it's also telling you that Vegas sees things
01:13 the same way as the fantasy community,
01:15 which is this guy is going to be ready to be good from jump
01:18 and to kind of take the world by storm, if you will.
01:21 And already the projections of fantasy pros
01:23 have met 1200 yards.
01:25 So this is not close.
01:26 This is, we're talking like a 200 yard difference.
01:30 - Sure.
01:30 - I'm a broken line,
01:33 but a line where Vegas is protecting itself a little bit.
01:36 But I think you smash the over right now on this
01:38 before it scoots up to 1050 to 1100.
01:41 And then ultimately closer to 12,
01:43 as we get maybe to September,
01:45 especially if he has some really good looks
01:46 in the preseason and all of a sudden in training camp,
01:49 things look really good.
01:50 But the touchdown totals again, five and a half.
01:53 I would lean towards the over on that.
01:56 You're getting a better number at the minus 112,
01:59 but at the same time,
02:00 touchdowns can be a little wacky sometimes.
02:02 So I would stay away from that.
02:04 And instead just double up on the over
02:06 on the thousand yards and a thousand and a half.
02:08 'Cause to me, I think that's the one
02:09 you can really control.
02:11 Touchdowns are tough to control.
02:13 There's a lot of arbitrary moments
02:14 that happen in a football game,
02:16 but volume you can control.
02:18 And I think that's always the thing to come back to
02:20 in your wagering on a weekly basis,
02:22 when you're looking at individual performance games too.
02:25 And the same thing, you step back
02:26 and you look at the futures, it's the same thing.
02:27 I can kind of get where the volume's coming from,
02:30 the touchdowns at the end of the day,
02:32 a little bit more volatile.
02:33 (upbeat music)
02:36 (bells chiming)

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