IHSG ditutup melemah 0,64% ke 6.989,164 di sesi I hari ini, Jumat (31/5). Sektor teknologi +1,71% GOTO +4,48%, sektor barang konsumen primer +0,59% UNVR +2,57%. Sementara sektor infrastruktur -2,63% dengan BREN ARB untuk hari ketiga. Beban makin bertambah FREN -10% ARB pasca masuk ke dalam papan pemantauan khusus per 31 Mei 2024, Sementra EXCL -5,76% .
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir lebih rendah, Kamis, dengan Nasdaq anjlok lebih dari 1% dan saham teknologi memimpin kejatuhan setelah proyeksi Salesforce yang mengecewakan. Investor juga mencerna data yang menunjukkan perekonomian Amerika Serikat tumbuh lebih lambat dari ekspektasi sebelumnya sepanjang kuartal pertama.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir lebih rendah, Kamis, dengan Nasdaq anjlok lebih dari 1% dan saham teknologi memimpin kejatuhan setelah proyeksi Salesforce yang mengecewakan. Investor juga mencerna data yang menunjukkan perekonomian Amerika Serikat tumbuh lebih lambat dari ekspektasi sebelumnya sepanjang kuartal pertama.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us, and in this segment, we will review how the business has been going on throughout the day,
00:06where the shareholders have again experienced quite a deep correction.
00:10And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812.8788.3723,
00:18as shown on your television screen later.
00:21And right now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Ahmad Yakiye,
00:24Head of Online Trading and Technical from BCA Securities.
00:28We will go straight to Mr. Yakiye. Good afternoon, how are you, sir?
00:32Good afternoon, Mr. Dev.
00:33Thank you, Mr. Yakiye, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:37The pressure today continues for the shareholder index, Mr. Yakiye.
00:41The difference is, throughout today's trading,
00:44the shareholder index is more dominant, moving below the level of 7,000.
00:49Your analysis?
00:50Yes, this is more because, in terms of risk, it is more because of the movement of the brand.
00:54In the morning, the brand was opened by ARB,
00:57when it was in full collection in the first trading session in the 10th quarter.
01:01The IASG was immediately red, because if you look at some of the big banks,
01:04it has also started to turn green.
01:06Even if it went down, it was not too deep and flat.
01:08And this morning it was also safe, it was in the red zone, around 4%-5%.
01:12So this is the advantage of the IASG today.
01:14More because, indeed, from the first two sums in the brand and it was safe,
01:17the correction this morning in the first session,
01:19and it was safe to try to rebound in the second session,
01:21but it was still tending to be flat.
01:23Overall, the IASG is still strong, compared to some of the others.
01:28But if the pressure from the brand is still not over,
01:34it is possible that from Monday to next week there will still be quite a lot of pressure on the IASG.
01:39Because if we look at the weight of the brand itself, the IASG is still quite big.
01:43A few days ago it was still around 8%, and this is still quite big.
01:48Okay, Mr. Yaki, when it comes to the closure of trading in the second session,
01:52which is only a few minutes away, the IASG will not be able to return to above 7,000.
01:56Where is the direction of trading next, especially in trading next week?
02:04Yes, if there is no movement from the IASG,
02:06if the IASG is still unable to meet the short-term trend,
02:12there is a potential for the IASG next week to reach the level of 6906
02:17to close the gap in the area of 6860 to 6906.
02:23So the potential for the IASG to close the gap below is still quite large.
02:27But back to earlier, if there is no resistance from the movement of the brand,
02:31the potential for the IASG to return to above 7,000 is quite large.
02:33Because next week there is still US investment data that is still waiting for us,
02:37and some economic indicator data usually appear at the beginning of the month.
02:41So it can be a catastrophic situation if the IASG pressure is still quite large,
02:46and the investment data from the US is still not good,
02:49and from Indonesia, the data at the beginning of the month is usually not good,
02:53or the contraction can be used to pressure the IASG again.
02:57Mr. Ayaki, throughout this May, Mr. Ayaki, Indekargasemkabungan,
03:01as the information we have conveyed earlier,
03:03has weakened by 3.39 percent.
03:05The net sale was recorded at Rp 14 trillion throughout May.
03:10Coincidentally, today is the last day of trading in May, Mr. Ayaki.
03:14How do you see it?
03:15Is there a sell-in-May and go-away here?
03:18Or is it just a coincidence when global negative sentiment
03:24has appeared quite a lot in the last few times?
03:27Yes, maybe if I look at it more, yes, historically,
03:31if we look at the rotation gap of the IASG,
03:35usually in May, the dominance or the majority of the correction is quite large for the IASG.
03:40However, coincidentally, the positive cut-off in May is very minimal,
03:43and coincidentally, there are more negatives,
03:45starting from the brand that entered the full collection,
03:47because it was suspended for two days,
03:49then there was a loss of Rp 16,250,
03:53so it's quite big,
03:55and if we look at the US itself,
03:57it is still waiting for the monetary policy,
04:01what the Fed will be like,
04:03will it be more hawkish or more dowry?
04:05So there are more negative sentiments than positive sentiments.
04:09So this is what pushes the IASG,
04:11because the foreign flow is still quite strong in May.
04:15Okay, we will try to review from Mr. Ayaki's technical side for the brand, sir.
04:19Again, today is the auto-reject bottom, and today is the third day.
04:23Meanwhile, the special auditors will be held some time in the future.
04:27Where do you see the direction?
04:29With the auto-reject bottom every day,
04:32do you expect it will continue for the next few days?
04:35Where is the direction of this brand stock,
04:38in terms of price,
04:39where the capitalization position has also risen quite a bit in recent times?
04:47If we look at the last few days,
04:49technically it's a bit dangerous
04:53if the brand is rejected again tomorrow, on Monday,
04:57because if the brand breaks below 7,300, 7,380, up to 7,400,
05:05there is a potential for the brand to plummet below 7,000
05:07and return to the level of 6,600 to 6,700.
05:10This is a bit risky for the brand trend,
05:13because we know that what is given in the stock market is 30 days to enter the full collection.
05:19So this is indeed a potential, in my opinion, it may still happen.
05:24Is there a potential for the brand to return to the price of the IPO again?
05:28If we look at some Samsung that after the full collection,
05:31return to the main board like OASA,
05:33when it has left the full collection,
05:36Samsung tends to rebound.
05:39When they enter the full collection,
05:41they drop more than 60%
05:43and again, the strengthening occurs after it returns to the main board or the development board.
05:48Is there any kind of evaluation,
05:50or will the brand remain on the main board for the next 30 days?
05:57Probably, from the last statement I read,
06:00the information is given for 30 days.
06:03After that, the brand will probably leave the full collection.
06:07What is the WNC first for the brand with the current position?
06:11Actually, from the trader's point of view,
06:13this should be the beginning of the market,
06:15when the brand drops below 7,200, 7,300.
06:18Because with the current level,
06:20it's actually quite deep,
06:22more than 30%.
06:24Sorry, almost 30%.
06:26So, it's quite interesting.
06:28So, if tomorrow it can reach the level of 7,200 to 7,300,
06:31if you want to speculate, it's actually quite interesting.
06:34But if ARB continues, what will it be like?
06:38ARB's potential is still there.
06:40But if we, because it's like this,
06:42in the full collection, we can't see the position of the offer.
06:46It's more speculative.
06:48So, it's hard to guess what the direction will be like.
06:52From the brand, we move to another stock.
06:55There is FREN, sir.
06:57Today, FREN also experienced an auto-reject below.
07:00And the latest information,
07:02FREN also entered the special monitoring board.
07:05Per 31 May 2024.
07:08Auto-reject below, the price is already at 45 rupiah per share.
07:12And if the auto-reject below happens again,
07:15and continues,
07:16how far will it go from the price of FREN, sir?
07:20If it's below 50, it's probably like RP1.
07:23And that might still happen.
07:25But it's actually more interesting when the price of FREN
07:29can be accumulated below the price of 50.
07:32Because if you look at the historical business,
07:34the assets are still too big.
07:36And if we look at the retail market,
07:38if this happens, it's quite interesting.
07:40If we can accumulate FREN, especially below 20,
07:43it's very interesting.
07:45Okay, today's closing at 45.
07:47Auto-reject below at 10 percent
07:49because it entered the special monitoring board.
07:51And level 20 is quite interesting.
07:53What is obtained from FREN is below level 20 later
07:58if you want to enter the FREN stock.
08:00But overall, Mr. Yaki,
08:02when stocks leave the special monitoring board,
08:04they usually experience a rebound or rebound again.
08:07Is this also related to the fundamental side?
08:11No.
08:12Because the full collection,
08:14especially for these two FREN, is different.
08:16Because usually the special monitoring board is more dominant
08:19because there is a determination made by the regulator
08:22why the FREN entered the special monitoring board.
08:24And if we look at the FREN,
08:25in terms of business, it's good.
08:26But coincidentally, because it was suspended for more than one day,
08:29that's why it was moved to the special monitoring board
08:31for the next 30 days.
08:32So fundamentally, there's nothing wrong.
08:36So if you really want a good speculative for the FREN,
08:39it's actually quite interesting.
08:40Because in terms of business, it's still ongoing,
08:42it's still expanding.
08:43There's no problem with the business.
08:45If we look for it, it's not in IDX,
08:47it's not on the website, it's not in the news.
08:50In fact, they are expanding.
08:51So actually, with the price correction for three days,
08:54if you really want a good speculative,
08:56it's actually quite interesting.
08:57Okay, analysis from the brand and FREN stocks
09:00that entered the special monitoring board
09:02and experienced a rebound of more than 10%.
09:06Okay, I'll try to move to the Big Cap Bank.
09:09Mr. Ayaki, the Big Cap Bank,
09:11we can't separate it with its contribution
09:13to the Samkabungan Indekarga.
09:15Some of the Big Cap Bank today have started to rebound,
09:18but not all at once.
09:19Because some other Big Cap Bank
09:21are actually under pressure.
09:23After jumping in the first session,
09:25it seems to follow the trend of the Samkabungan Indekarga movement
09:28throughout today's trade.
09:30What is your recommendation and analysis
09:33for this Big Cap Bank
09:35with the movement pattern that occurred
09:37in the last few days?
09:38The movement is also quite fast, sir.
09:40Rising high, then correction again.
09:43Mr. Ayaki.
09:45Yes, it's still different.
09:47If we look at it one by one,
09:48actually, like BCA, it's still interesting for trading buy
09:51for the short term.
09:52Because it's still in the 8850-8925 gap area,
09:56a few times BCA has rebounded.
09:58So it's still interesting for buy accumulation
10:01in the gap area, at 8850-8925.
10:05For buy on support,
10:06if you want to trade, it's actually still interesting.
10:08If tomorrow, on Monday,
10:09BCA can break above 9200.
10:11Then for the BBN itself,
10:13actually, this is also a fairly large bearish trend.
10:16But indeed, with the current movement,
10:18it's even more interesting to do short quoted buy.
10:22Because if we look at it,
10:24the two that have issued results in the 2024 format,
10:28BCA is much better than BRI.
10:30BRI is still growing,
10:31it's still waiting,
10:32but it's a flat trend,
10:33and it's a bit of a flat trend.
10:34So, indeed,
10:35we are still waiting for BNI and BNI.
10:38And the condition,
10:39maybe BNI is not as good as BNI.
10:41Okay.
10:42But with the current price condition,
10:43actually, for short quoted buy for BNI,
10:47it's quite interesting as long as it's marked,
10:494,360 to 4,400 for BNI.
10:52Okay.
10:53Coincidentally, there is also a question coming in
10:54from Mr. Victor from Malang,
10:55who wants to buy BBNI.
10:56How much can it cost?
10:58Just briefly,
10:59directly to the level,
11:00maybe the entry.
11:02Short quoted buy for BNI can be marked at 4,400.
11:05Because if it reaches 4,400,
11:07the correction is quite far,
11:09at 4,260 to 4,300.
11:12Okay.
11:13Analysis from Samsung Banking Pickup,
11:14which today tried to rise,
11:15support the share price,
11:17so that the correction that happens is not too deep,
11:19and at the same time,
11:20answering the question from Mr. Victor from Malang for BBNI.
11:22And again, the decision to invest
11:24is still in the hands of the sponsor, IDX Channel.
11:29Thank you.