Melissa DeRosa, Democratic strategist and former Secretary under New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, joins Brittany Lewis on "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss former President Donald Trump's guilty verdict in the NYC hush money trial.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Melissa DeRosa,
00:08 Democratic strategist and former secretary under New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Melissa,
00:12 thank you so much for joining me. Thank you so much for having me. It's great to be back.
00:17 We are sitting now in historic times and precedent times, as we've all been saying. Just yesterday,
00:23 former President Donald Trump was convicted on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business
00:28 records. What's your reaction to the verdict? You know, not surprising at all. I think that
00:34 anyone who is sort of following this along, any trial lawyer will tell you that in order to win,
00:40 the defense needs to sort of present an alternative theory, an alternative version
00:44 of events. And in this case, the defense didn't really do that. What they were more banking on
00:49 was poking holes in the very real credibility issues around Michael Cohen and saying Michael
00:55 Cohen is a liar, which Michael Cohen is a liar. But the problem was Donald Trump is also a liar.
00:59 So I think in the end, you weren't in Staten Island or Rockland County or Florida or Oklahoma.
01:07 You were in Manhattan, 92 percent Democratic. And it felt sort of all along like this was a
01:12 fait accompli. And it was, you know, shocking that it even took 48 hours. I thought it would
01:16 be done in 24. Of course, obviously, this is a historic first, a convicted felon as a former
01:23 president. But this also comes five months away from a presidential election where Donald Trump
01:29 is the head of the GOP. So how does this impact the race? You know what, Brittany, it's incredible.
01:35 I don't think it does. I mean, it'll energize his base. We saw that overnight. You know,
01:40 his fundraising numbers went through the roof. I think that there weren't cameras in the courtroom.
01:46 So it's not as if people were watching this trial every day like they were during, say,
01:51 the O.J. Simpson trial, you know, to the extent that they were seeing clips of it on the news
01:55 or reading it. It was sort of, you know, just as they were going about their daily lives.
01:59 And I think the people had sort of made up their decision one way or another on this in advance of
02:05 this trial. So I think that it's not going to have very big impact in terms of moving the needle on
02:11 voters. I think that at the end of the day, it's still going to come down to the economy, inflation,
02:15 migrants, crime, issues like that, Israel, you know, geopolitical issues. And that if anything,
02:21 this is going to harden his base's resolve. And I think you may even see his numbers go up a
02:26 little bit in polling that comes out in the next few days in battlegrounds. I want to talk about
02:31 the fundraising numbers that his team released, because right after the verdict, his donation
02:38 page did crash for a little bit there. And his campaign said they received a historic thirty
02:43 four point eight million dollars in small dollar donations less than 24 hours after the verdict.
02:48 And twenty nine point seven percent of them of those donors were new to the platform. So as a
02:54 Democratic strategist, what are you thinking when you hear that? You know, look, I wrote a column
03:01 on this case a year ago in The Daily Beast, and I talked about how this case in particular was so
03:07 weak in terms of how inherently political it looked right. The Southern District feds had
03:13 passed on bringing this case against Trump. This was a case that was predicated on a porn star and
03:18 a convicted felon slash liar and Michael Cohen. And so all along, I personally had been dreading
03:24 this moment because I think that all that it seeks to do is further undermine people view of
03:30 the justice system. They believe it's been politicized. Every poll tells us that you're
03:35 now in a situation where the January 6th trial, which I think would have been a real and compelling
03:40 trial, you know, talking about upholding democracy and taking your oath of office is going to get
03:46 bumped beyond November. Georgia has now been undermined by everything with the D.A. there.
03:52 And so I think that the fact that this was the one and only case that it looks like is going to
03:57 happen prior to Election Day was a bad hand felt for Democrats. And I think that, again, you saw
04:04 those numbers, the numbers speak for themselves. It'll be interesting to see the first round of
04:07 polling, but I wouldn't be shocked if the first round of polling shows that he gets a marginal
04:12 bump in some of those swing states. I want to talk about the Democrats response, specifically
04:18 President Biden. It has been relatively muted. He did not come out. He did not have a press
04:23 conference or anything of that nature. He did post this on X. There's only one way to keep
04:30 Donald Trump out of the Oval Office at the ballot box. Donate to our campaign today. And then the
04:34 White House said that they respect the rule of law. What do you make of this response?
04:39 You know, look, I think that the White House is being very careful because they don't want to
04:44 play into this idea that it's a Democratic district attorney in a very blue state, New York,
04:50 in the bluest county in the state in Manhattan. They don't want to play into this idea that it
04:55 was a political case. And so I think that Biden is sort of taking a little bit of a hands off
05:00 approach. Now, at the same time, if you're Joe Biden, the one thing that they haven't been doing
05:04 effectively, I think Democrats in general, is providing an affirmative vision for the country.
05:10 And right now, this election is going to be a referendum on the Biden administration on
05:14 by nomics on inflation on what's going on with Israel and Gaza, Ukraine, and Russia and on and
05:21 on and on. And so, you know, I think that politically, he's in a tough spot on this. If he
05:26 tried to look like he was taking advantage of the moment or pouncing on it, it would play into what
05:31 the Republicans are saying that this is all political from day one. So there's not very much
05:36 for him to gain.
05:36 The bases have pretty much made up their mind already. This isn't changing anyone's mind.
05:43 That's a fervent Biden supporter or a fervent Trump supporter. However, the election is coming
05:48 down to independent voters and pollsters that I've talked to within the past 24 hours are
05:53 saying this isn't the issue for independent voters, but it's a piece of a larger puzzle. So
05:59 how does the Biden campaign and Democrats convince those independents? Hey, vote
06:04 Democrat, vote for Biden.
06:06 You know, look, again, we need to see the affirmative vision. We need to he needs to make
06:11 the case that he inherited an economy that was decimated coming off of covid, that because of
06:17 the decisions that he and his administration have made, they righted the ship. Unemployment
06:22 is down. The stock market has been doing well. Inflation is not going down quickly enough,
06:27 but it is trending in the right direction, hoping for a future rate hike not that far or a
06:31 rate cut. Excuse me, not that far away from now. He needs to talk about how he righted the
06:36 ship and he needs to be given four more years in order to finish the job and tell
06:41 Americans what that's going to look like, practically speaking, for their lives. Because
06:46 as you and I both know, we live not in a 24 hour news cycle. We live in a three hour news
06:51 cycle at this point. And so while this was a historic moment, as you and I were talking
06:56 about before the show, how many times have we all said to ourselves in the last few years,
07:00 this is an historic moment. In a couple of weeks, you're going to punch Biden on trial. So
07:06 then the show is going to move to that. The sentencing will come in July. We've got
07:10 debate coming up in a couple of weeks. So many things are going to happen between this
07:15 moment and November that I think by the time we get to November, this may almost feel like
07:19 a memory unless the judge decides to sentence the former president to jail, which would
07:25 be extraordinary.
07:26 That's a really interesting point. I mean, we're five months away from a presidential
07:32 election. This could seem like a faint memory to many because, I mean, there's so many
07:38 things that can and will happen until then. Do you think Democrats keep this at the
07:43 forefront of people's memories or instead switch and paint that picture of what America
07:48 looks like under former years of Biden?
07:50 I think they've got to do both. And I think the smart move would be for the president
07:55 and his team to say stay sort of above the fray and talk about the affirmative vision
08:00 and what sticking with him is going to look like and why Democrats are the right choice
08:04 on things like personal choice for reproductive health, on the economy, on
08:09 infrastructure, et cetera, and then have sort of the independent super PACs and the
08:14 IEs do the dirty work and say, you know, are you really is the United States really
08:19 going to put a convicted felon in the White House?
08:23 Is that who we are?
08:24 And go after Donald Trump for all of his negatives and remind people about January 6th
08:29 that all of his other living indictments.
08:30 And so I think it's a dual pronged strategy.
08:33 You can't do one. You've got to do both.
08:35 But I think the president and his team have been behind the eight ball for two years
08:39 now on telling their story and why keeping him in office and keeping this administration
08:45 in place is what's best for the American people.
08:47 So they got to get off the mat and start doing that much more aggressively.
08:51 We've seen disenfranchised Democrats, we've seen Democrats who are upset with Biden over
08:57 his handling of Israel and his Middle East policy.
09:00 Do you think this alone, Donald Trump becoming a convicted felon, will get those
09:05 disenfranchised Democrats who were either going to sit this out or vote for a third
09:08 party to say, hey, I mean, maybe I should vote, maybe I should get off the couch, maybe
09:14 I should vote for Biden?
09:15 You know, look, I think that the Israel issue is such a tricky one for Democrats.
09:20 I mean, governmentally, it's obviously very tricky, but politically it is it's really
09:25 become a single issue voter situation where there are people who are going to vote solely
09:30 on what's going on.
09:31 And I think that Biden has sort of been ham handed in his approach to how he's been
09:36 dealing with the crisis from day one, first coming out full, full throated support for
09:41 Netanyahu for Israel, I think rightly in their ability to defend themselves.
09:45 But then once Michigan happened, you sort of saw this pivot and it looked political,
09:50 whether it was political or not, it appeared political.
09:53 And since then, they've been trying to be all things to all people.
09:57 And in doing so, in their effort to please everyone, they pleased no one.
10:01 And so I don't think that this conviction is going to alter what's going to happen for
10:07 those single issue voters who feel so passionately on either side of the Gaza or
10:13 Israel issue. I think that they're going to do what they're going to do based on how
10:17 they feel about the issue and not about Stormy Daniels.
10:19 You've been in politics for a long time, and if your competitor became a convicted
10:26 felon, I mean, that sounds like a layup for anyone who is running against that person.
10:32 But as we discussed, I mean, they're neck and neck in the polls.
10:34 This could give Trump a boost.
10:37 Are you surprised by any of this?
10:39 I mean, yes and no.
10:42 It feels so incredibly surreal.
10:44 You know, and I talk about this with reporters and interviews all the time.
10:47 It almost feels like the kind of thing we would used to read about that would go on in
10:51 third world countries in Latin America or South America.
10:54 You know what I mean? Like we are now in a situation where the major nominee for the
10:59 second, you know, one of two major parties in this country is a convicted felon.
11:04 He has still 80 some odd charges against them that are looming for future trials.
11:10 You have the sitting president, the son is about to go on trial.
11:15 And so, you know, I think we're living through one of those moments where it's sort of
11:19 the frog in the pot of boiling water where you don't even realize that it's happening.
11:23 But 10 years from now, we're going to look back and say, I can't believe we lived
11:26 through that infinity.
11:28 But I think because there's been so much craziness starting, you know, 2016, even a
11:33 little bit before that, people have gotten so numb to it.
11:37 You know, it's almost like now when there's a mass shooting, it doesn't make front
11:40 page news because people have gotten so used to like the constant activity around it.
11:46 The same thing here. It's like people don't bat an eye.
11:49 The front page of today's paper, will it be tomorrow?
11:51 I don't know. There's a good chance it won't.
11:53 Something else will happen.
11:54 That's a really interesting point.
11:57 I was talking to another reporter and I asked him because Donald Trump has been involved
12:02 in controversy chaos for years now, almost a decade, the shock value has worn off and
12:08 has worn off with the American people.
12:11 Do you think that works to Donald Trump's favor?
12:14 I mean, absolutely, absolutely.
12:18 And, you know, it's because the shock value has made it so it's, you know, it's
12:22 worn off. Biden will misspeak.
12:25 You know, he'll accidentally swap out one world leader's name for another.
12:29 He'll recognize a member of Congress who's not at an event at an event and the news
12:33 will talk about it for a day and it'll become a referendum on his state of mind.
12:38 And if he's senile, is he too old for the job?
12:40 And Trump does the same thing all the time.
12:42 And people don't bat an eye because he's so normalized that part of his shit.
12:46 And so it's really interesting because he has made it so that he can be a convicted
12:51 felon and still look to some people like he could very well be nominated again for
12:56 president in five, four months.
12:58 What are you looking for between now and I mean, not only Election Day, he's being
13:04 sentenced July 11th, just a few days before the RNC.
13:07 There's a presidential debate before that.
13:09 What are you keeping your eye out as a Democratic strategist?
13:12 What's most important to you?
13:15 You know, I think that Biden did a phenomenal job in the State of the Union.
13:20 If we remember, I mean, it feels like a lifetime ago, but it was just a few short
13:23 months ago. And the bar was so low and everyone was sort of so negative on the
13:27 direction of the Biden campaign.
13:29 And he went out and he really overperformed.
13:31 And there was a reset moment.
13:33 We need that reset moment again, because since that happened, the crisis in the
13:38 Middle East has continued to unfold.
13:40 Inflation numbers have gotten worse.
13:42 We didn't get that interest rate cut that we were hoping the Fed was going to make
13:46 in that in this last quarter.
13:48 And so things have gotten worse again for him.
13:50 So even though Donald Trump has been on trial, things have not been going well
13:55 provided. And so I'm hoping that in this debate, not only is there not an unforeseen
14:00 error or gap, but that he overperforms, outperforms Donald Trump, the Donald Trump
14:05 gap, that we get that reset moment.
14:07 And then we go into a sentencing that is what it is.
14:10 And Biden just kicks off and spends the next few months.
14:13 Put a team around him, that young, energetic, outtelling its story, selling their
14:18 campaign message and writing it out into the fall.
14:21 I mean, the nightmare scenario is that this war in Israel is still raging on come
14:27 August and that we have a convention in Chicago that's reminiscent of 1968 and that
14:33 there's sort of this reinforcement that the reason we elected Joe Biden was to sort
14:38 of return to normalcy, get everything back in order, make people feel like there's an
14:43 adult at the till.
14:44 And then really what you end up seeing is images of chaos going into the fall and then
14:49 obviously the kids come back from college.
14:50 So what we need to see is a strong pivot.
14:53 I think that that debate is a real opportunity for him.
14:56 And then from there forward, he's got to play his game and he's got to be.
15:00 What does a win at that debate look like for President Biden, because every strategist
15:05 I've talked to high risk, but high reward if he does pull it off.
15:09 What does pulling it off look like?
15:11 Pulling it off is he's got to first of all, no gas, no gaps, no screwing up world
15:18 leaders names, you know, no no old man shuffle when he's going to a seat, none of
15:22 that. But he's got to land a couple of punches and he's got to be very strong in the
15:27 facts and his vision.
15:29 The entire country will be watching.
15:31 The country was not watching that trial, right?
15:33 There were no cameras in the courtroom, but I believe the entire country is going to be
15:37 watching that debate. And so that's his moment to tell the American people, this is
15:41 how you're better off today than when I inherited office three and a half years ago.
15:46 And here's what you're going to get from me.
15:47 You stick with me just a little bit longer so I can finish the job you hired me to do.
15:51 And he's got to land a couple of punches.
15:54 He's got to come off as tough and strong and effective because the reality is people
15:59 like people who are strong.
16:01 You know, the famous line, we'd rather have someone who's strong and wrong than
16:04 weak. So he's got to be strong, tough, effective and come off as a leader.
16:09 Well, we certainly will be watching that debate and the day after.
16:13 I hope you come back on.
16:14 You break it down, react with us.
16:16 Melissa DeRosa, thank you for joining me.
16:18 Thank you so much for having me, Brittany.
16:20 Thank you.
16:20 Thank you.
16:21 Thank you.
16:22 Thank you.
16:23 Thank you.
16:24 Thank you.
16:25 [BLANK_AUDIO]