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00:00 For more on the European elections, we can bring in Paul Taylor, a columnist for the
00:03 European edition of The Guardian and a senior visiting fellow with the European Policy Centre.
00:08 Thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us today.
00:11 Now once MEPs enter the EU Parliament, they form groups that span across the different
00:16 countries.
00:17 How similar are the programs of each party from country to country?
00:20 For example, do all of the Green parties have the same platform?
00:24 They have broadly the same platform.
00:26 Some of them are, for example, much more militant about the war going on in Gaza at the moment
00:31 than others, depending on their country of origin.
00:34 But these are, to some extent, transnational elections.
00:38 It's the only multinational election of its kind in the world.
00:42 But there are also 27 national elections where the unspoken name on the ballot paper is the
00:50 home government and where people will be given an opportunity in a sort of midterm election
00:55 to give their own government a kicking.
00:57 I think that's what's likely to happen in France, for example.
01:00 And tell us, what are some of the biggest issues in this year's election?
01:04 Well, you know, fundamentally what's at stake in this election is whether the pro-European
01:10 centre can hold, despite growing support for Eurosceptic, hard-right parties who want a
01:17 very different kind of Europe.
01:19 It's a question of how centralised or decentralised Europe will be, how open or how closed to
01:25 the world in trade, also in migration.
01:28 And there are a lot of identity issues, if you like, culture war type issues around the
01:33 rights of women, the rights of gay people, asylum seekers and so on.
01:38 Some of the big challenges, well, since 2019, Europe has been through a pandemic, a cost
01:44 of living inflation crisis and a war in Ukraine with another war close to its borders in the
01:50 Middle East.
01:51 So there's been a lot of shaking up.
01:54 The challenges are to give Ukraine decisive assistance, to build a credible European defence,
02:03 which had been neglected for many years after the end of the Cold War, to see the green
02:08 transition through.
02:09 And that's one of the most controversial and central issues.
02:12 Are we going too fast or are we not going fast enough to wean ourselves off fossil fuels
02:18 to get towards the net zero carbon emissions target and to do so without crippling farmers,
02:27 the working class, commuters, people who may be less able to afford the changes?
02:33 And then there's the challenge of keeping Europe's economy competitive in a world where
02:39 both the United States and China are giving massive subsidies to their industries.
02:44 So should Europe do the same?
02:46 Should it remain more open to global trade?
02:49 Those are some of the issues that people are fighting over.
02:52 This is a continent with an ageing and shrinking population, which explains some of the conservative
02:58 reflexes we may see in this election.
03:02 And can you talk us through what some of the key policy differences are on those issues?
03:07 For example, maybe defense and immigration?
03:09 Well, on defense, basically, most parties agree with the exception of the far left and
03:14 the far right that Europe should be spending a lot more on defense.
03:18 Some people want to see that build up as a European defense itself.
03:23 Others want to see it within NATO, within the Atlantic alliance more.
03:27 And some are in favor of giving every possible assistance to Ukraine and ensuring that Ukraine
03:34 can win so that Putin is stopped in Ukraine and doesn't move on to other juicy targets
03:40 in Europe.
03:41 Others are more sympathetic to Mr. Putin.
03:45 And you see that in some of the parties on the far right in particular.
03:50 So that's one of the big differences.
03:54 There are other big differences, as I say, around the pace of the green transition.
03:58 There's been a backlash.
03:59 You saw farmers' demonstrations in many countries earlier this year.
04:04 And so there's a sense that the parties, particularly on the right, are saying, stop this.
04:10 This transition has got to go more slowly.
04:12 We're not sure about phasing out the internal combustion engine and moving entirely to electric
04:18 cars.
04:19 We shouldn't be forcing people to switch to heat pumps.
04:22 We should be more flexible and so on.
04:25 On the other hand, there are a lot of people on the left, in the greens, and some in the
04:31 center right as well, saying, no, we've got to see this through.
04:34 We must make it work.
04:36 Yes, we've got to be more sensitive to the needs of people who can't afford these things
04:41 and who will need financial support to make their homes, for example, more energy efficient,
04:49 to introduce heat pumps instead of their gas or electric heaters and so on.
04:54 All these things are issues in the campaign.
04:58 And just briefly, because we're running out of time, there is typically pretty low turnout
05:02 for European elections.
05:04 Do you think that's going to continue this year?
05:05 Or kind of how would you rate the overall enthusiasm level across Europe?
05:10 Well, the surveys that have been done suggest there's going to be a higher turnout this
05:14 year.
05:15 Last time in 2019, the long decline was reversed and the turnout did actually top 50 percent
05:21 of the European electorate.
05:23 This time it could be up significantly.
05:26 More young people voting, that may be more protest votes for the far right, because young
05:32 people are more likely to cast an anti-establishment vote, even if they are regarded as being more
05:39 pro-European.
05:40 So I think we'll see a bigger turnout in most places.
05:44 I think we'll see some anti-government votes in some places.
05:47 As I say, France, Germany will be another one.
05:50 And I think we will see more seats for the far right.
05:54 But I believe that the central coalition of Christian Democrats, social Democrats and
06:01 liberals, which your subject described, I think that will hold and that will continue
06:07 to govern Europe, perhaps with the support of the Greens.
06:10 All right.
06:11 We'll have to wait and see next weekend.
06:13 It's going to be interesting, as you say, on a national and a Europe wide level.
06:16 Paul Taylor, thank you so much again for your analysis.
06:19 That's Paul Taylor, a columnist for the European edition of The Guardian and senior visiting
06:23 fellow at the European Policy Center.