Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat deflasi pada Mei 2024 ini sebesar 0,03%. Deflasi bulan ini menjadi yang pertama sejak Agustus 2023. Sementara secara tahunan terjadi inflasi sebesar 2,84% dan inflasi tahun kalender sebesar 1,16%.
Secara rinci, deflasi pada bulan Mei 2024 ini utamanya didorong oleh komoditas beras yang mengalami deflasi sebesar 3, 59% dan memberikan andil deflasi sebesar 0,15%. BPS menyebut, meskipun produksi beras mulai menurun, deflasi komoditas beras kembali terjadi karena stok beras yang tersedia masih memadai.
Secara rinci, deflasi pada bulan Mei 2024 ini utamanya didorong oleh komoditas beras yang mengalami deflasi sebesar 3, 59% dan memberikan andil deflasi sebesar 0,15%. BPS menyebut, meskipun produksi beras mulai menurun, deflasi komoditas beras kembali terjadi karena stok beras yang tersedia masih memadai.
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06:33 Is it because of the inflation and the decline in the year?
06:39 If we look at May last year, the inflation was quite high.
06:46 That means it was still affected by the increase in BBM in 2022.
06:52 So that's why the inflation in May this year is relatively low.
06:58 Because if we look at the inflation in the same month, 2023,
07:05 it's higher than May this year.
07:07 So that's why the inflation in the year is slightly decreasing.
07:12 But once again, the inflation data is in line with the target of the Indonesian Bank's inflation target.
07:20 In the range of 2.5% + -1%.
07:23 So this also indicates that the BBM tribe is consistent in meeting inflation expectations.
07:32 So that in April, there was a weakness in the exchange rate.
07:37 Or from the producer's point of view,
07:41 the price in the producer's level has also started to decline in Q1.
07:46 If we compare it to the IHPB, the big traders have also started to decline.
07:53 It means that the production cost has also started to decline along with the price of timber.
08:00 Okay, Mr. Joshua.
08:01 And now we go to Mr. Dwi Andres.
08:03 Prof, how do you see, as you have said,
08:06 food groups that are usually the sponsors of inflation in the water,
08:12 there is a price normalization.
08:14 And maybe it can also be conveyed to the consumers,
08:16 is there a decrease in the price of our food, whether it's rice or other things,
08:20 which usually experience an increase or a drop because there was a momentum of Ramadan, Eid, etc.?
08:27 Yes, the decline is one thing that is normal.
08:31 If we look at our paddy production pattern,
08:34 because the main thing was paddy production,
08:38 it reached its highest point in April,
08:45 the previous year was in March, now in April.
08:49 So if there is a deflation, it is a very normal thing.
08:54 If we look at the price of the basic IHPB,
08:59 in March to May, it dropped 3.4%.
09:04 The price of rice in the consumer level,
09:07 in March it was almost 16,000,
09:12 then in May it was 15,400, so it dropped 3.4%.
09:16 What is very unfortunate is that the price drop in the consumer level
09:22 is followed by a much sharper price drop in the producer level.
09:27 How much price drop in the producer level,
09:30 price drop in the rice farmer level,
09:33 I took the peak in February.
09:36 If the price of rice in the consumer level, the peak is in March.
09:40 In February, the price of rice in the farmer level was 14,800.
09:45 Now in May, it's already 12,000.
09:49 How much did it drop? 18.5%.
09:52 If the price of rice in the consumer level dropped 3.4%,
09:55 the price of rice in the farmer level dropped 18.5%.
09:59 And what is higher is the decrease in the price of wheat,
10:03 because whatever the farmer's welfare depends on the price of wheat,
10:08 because the harvest is what will be bought.
10:11 How much did it drop in February at the highest number of 7,625,
10:17 in May, this is the result of the survey of AP2TI, we do a survey every month,
10:21 in May it was 6,023.
10:24 How much did it drop? 21%.
10:28 So the price drop in the consumer level is transmitted
10:35 worse in the producer level.
10:39 So even though the opposite happens,
10:43 if we observe when there is a price increase,
10:47 rice, if in our record, in June 2022, it was 11,700,
10:52 in February it was almost 15,400,
10:57 it increased by 31%.
10:59 But the price increase in the farmer's level was 78%.
11:06 Then the price increase in GDP was 93% in that period.
11:11 So we know that the agricultural product,
11:16 the demand character is elastic, that's what happened.
11:19 So if there is a price drop,
11:21 the price drop is much lower in the farmer's level,
11:25 the price increase is much higher in the farmer's level.
11:28 Okay, this is interesting, we will discuss this later.
11:30 On the one hand, we are protecting inflation,
11:32 but on the other hand, when there is a price drop,
11:34 the most affected by the price drop is precisely in the farmer's level.
11:39 We will discuss this in the next segment, we will be away for a while.
11:41 And the audience, stay with us.
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12:00 Thank you for joining us in Market Review.
12:04 We will continue the interesting discussion
12:07 with Mr. Joshua Pardini,
12:09 Head of PT Bangpermata TBK,
12:11 and Professor Rui Andrias,
12:13 a senior researcher from IPB University.
12:15 Okay, Prof. Andrias, we were talking about
12:19 how the price disparity in the consumer level
12:24 with the producer,
12:26 it looks like a fruit of the palm tree.
12:29 When it goes up,
12:31 here, actually, it's happy,
12:33 even though the price increase is too high.
12:35 But when the price goes down,
12:37 the farmer's level even goes further.
12:39 So, Prof, how do you see this condition?
12:42 On one hand, the government will continue to maintain
12:45 our inflation rate according to the government's target.
12:48 Yes, that's right. I repeat again,
12:51 the price in the consumer level,
12:53 the price of rice in the consumer level, fell 3.4 percent.
12:55 The price in the producer level,
12:57 rice in the farmer's level, fell 18.5 percent.
13:00 The price of GDP is even much higher,
13:03 21 percent. That's what happened.
13:06 So, here, the government's intervention is very much needed
13:09 in the condition of rice harvest.
13:11 Because it always happens.
13:13 Unfortunately, the government's intake
13:17 is relatively small.
13:20 Because many government agencies
13:23 are also filled with rice.
13:25 So, actually, in the position of rice harvest,
13:28 the government should have a big intake.
13:31 But this is the condition,
13:33 only temporarily, Prof.
13:36 So, this is our note,
13:38 so the price of GKP, for example,
13:40 we observe the price of rice harvest
13:42 is the lowest in April, at 5,428.
13:46 Now, in May, it has started to rise.
13:49 So, this month's price has started to rise at 6,023.
13:52 Then, the report from our farm network
13:55 in various places, in Java, in Sumatra, and so on,
14:00 the trend for this July, especially in Java,
14:03 is already above 7,000 GKP.
14:06 So, it is possible, in my opinion,
14:09 this will be transmitted,
14:11 the GKP price that has started to recover again,
14:15 this will be transmitted to the price of rice in the consumer level.
14:20 The transmission will definitely be one month behind.
14:24 So, in my opinion, starting in July,
14:27 the price of rice in the consumer level will start to rise again.
14:31 Okay, Mr. Joshua, then, what do we need to do from the economic side?
14:36 Indeed, on the one hand, the government continues to try to keep our inflation under control,
14:41 even though there was a price normalization,
14:43 our food group, Mr. Joshua.
14:45 And on the other hand, there was a new problem
14:48 when the price fell, the farmer's price even fell deeper,
14:51 related to the price they sell.
14:54 What do you think, Mr. Joshua?
14:55 Yes, this is certainly what Prof. Dwi said earlier,
14:58 that this will be directly related to the welfare of farmers.
15:02 This is also a translation of how the agricultural sector works.
15:06 If we look at the GDP data for each sector or business field,
15:11 in the first quarter of this year, the agricultural sector experienced a growth contraction.
15:16 And of course, especially with the condition,
15:18 indeed this is one of the factors, earlier there was the El Nino factor,
15:21 but of course it will be a disincentive for farmers
15:24 to increase their productivity,
15:26 because in the end, the agricultural sector contributes about 11% to our procurement.
15:32 So, at the time, the welfare of the farmers has not increased so much,
15:35 then also from the productivity side,
15:38 there is a productivity of our agricultural land that has not increased sharply.
15:42 It means that the performance of the agricultural sector in the GDP will also remain.
15:49 It means that our economic growth can be stuck at 5% level,
15:54 if there is no increase in the welfare of the farmers themselves,
15:58 and also how the productivity of our agricultural land increases.
16:02 So this also has to be a public service for the government,
16:05 so that the welfare of farmers needs to be increased again,
16:08 in order to increase the performance of the agricultural sector,
16:11 which I mentioned earlier that the contribution is about 11% in our GDP.
16:16 But from the future trend, what will it be like?
16:19 Is it a temporary deflation, like in May,
16:24 because there was a price drop,
16:26 then it will return to normal, or there will be inflation?
16:30 If it is, earlier you mentioned,
16:32 it's too early if we mention the weakness of the purchasing power in the society, Mr. Joshua.
16:37 Yes, the Prof. also said that there is a potential
16:41 where in July, the price of rice at the consumer level can potentially increase.
16:46 And this usually has a cycle,
16:49 later during the second harvest in September, if I'm not mistaken,
16:53 this is also the price of food will tend to decline.
16:56 But maybe what we need to discuss is in this second semester,
17:00 if we look at the financial report of the APBN 2024,
17:05 there is a possibility that the government will have the potential
17:08 to adjust the plastic harvest rate and also the harvest of sweetened drinks in packaging.
17:13 Not to mention if we talk about the trend of increasing the inflation of other groups,
17:19 the education group,
17:21 then also from the implementation of the average effective rate of taxes,
17:27 and also later in 2027 there will be cuts related to the tax,
17:31 maybe there is an impact on purchasing power,
17:35 especially if the middle class is below.
17:39 Therefore, it is very important here that the government also needs to be careful
17:43 in implementing policies.
17:45 Not to mention, we are talking about next year, the PPN will be increased again from 10% to 12%.
17:50 So this will of course have an impact on the purchasing power of the society as a whole.
17:56 We know that we still control the consumption of the society
18:01 around 50-55% of our GDP,
18:05 so it will have an impact on the economic growth.
18:09 That's what needs to be taken care of, the middle class is below, Mr. Joshua.
18:12 The term "mantap" is now finally a "saving" word,
18:15 as is often the case in the background.
18:18 Prof. Dwi, how do you see the price movement?
18:21 The highest price of rice is planned to be increased,
18:25 is this a fresh wind or what?
18:28 Oh yes, of course.
18:31 Because the old HET price has no longer made sense.
18:35 The old HET price, I'll just take one example,
18:38 HET for premium rice, is 13,900.
18:42 We know that the average price of rice from July last year was above 7,000.
18:50 So this causes a scarcity of premium rice in modern retail.
18:55 Because it is impossible to produce premium rice
18:58 if the price of wheat is above 7,000.
19:01 And the price of premium rice,
19:05 when the price was high until February 2024,
19:11 then the price of premium rice was low.
19:14 But why is the price of premium rice in the traditional market,
19:19 in the local market, already 16,000?
19:22 What do you do for big rice entrepreneurs?
19:25 Sell to modern retail,
19:27 which is priced at 13,900, just release it to the free market, right?
19:32 That's much more profitable for them.
19:34 That's what causes empty modern retail.
19:37 Because empty modern retail causes panic in the community.
19:41 Because the people panic, the price is even higher.
19:46 So, for that reason, HET's price increase will be made soon.
19:53 And there is already a price relaxation at 14,900.
19:57 So, because of what?
19:59 Once again, the price increase in the consumer level,
20:03 I believe it will be transmitted well to the producer level.
20:09 What should be maintained by the government
20:11 when there is a deflation in the price drop in the consumer level,
20:15 that's what makes farmers suffer the most.
20:18 Because the decrease in the agricultural industry is much greater
20:22 than the decrease in the consumer.
20:25 That's what we need to keep together.
20:27 And since 2023, the condition has actually improved.
20:32 In previous years, farmers lost money.
20:37 How much did they lose?
20:38 If I ask our farmers,
20:40 they lost IDR 250,000 to IDR 1 million per 2,000 square meters.
20:45 This is what happened in the field.
20:48 Only in 2023, I thank the friends of the National Food Board,
20:53 especially Mas Arief,
20:55 because last year, the price was already increased.
20:58 HPP and HET were increased.
21:00 That's very helpful.
21:02 So, the price of the goods in the agricultural industry improved.
21:06 And that's reflected in where?
21:08 That's reflected in the NTP.
21:10 The NTP of the agricultural sector,
21:12 which in 2022, in 1998,
21:15 was down to IDR 107.
21:17 So, this is very important to be done by the government,
21:21 how to maintain a good price in the agricultural industry.
21:24 If the price in the agricultural industry is good,
21:26 farmers will automatically be motivated.
21:28 When farmers are motivated,
21:30 the production will automatically increase.
21:32 This is what is important.
21:34 Interesting, Prof.
21:35 On one hand, it is expected to increase the price,
21:37 but on the other hand, the increase in price also triggers inflation.
21:39 Prof. Joshua will explain in the next segment.
21:41 We will stop for a moment.
21:43 Mr. Mirsan, stay with us.
21:45 You are still watching Market Review.
22:04 We will continue the interesting discussion about the deflation in May.
22:08 That's one of the triggers in Sumbang.
22:11 By the food sector, especially rice,
22:13 which has experienced price normalization.
22:15 Mr. Joshua Pardede, maybe you can continue.
22:18 Talking about the increase in the highest price of rice,
22:22 which will be adjusted.
22:23 Then, the hope from the farmers
22:25 is that there is also a price adjustment
22:27 that can increase their wealth.
22:29 But on the other hand,
22:30 the end will also trigger inflation
22:32 if there is an increase in the price of Indonesian food.
22:35 Yes, as I mentioned earlier,
22:38 the price component fluctuates or follows the output
22:41 on inflation or consumer price index
22:44 is about 20% of the component.
22:46 So, if there is an increase in the price of food,
22:50 this will of course have a direct impact on inflation.
22:54 And not to mention, we are talking about other components,
22:58 such as the government's budget.
23:00 Especially in a condition where,
23:02 for example, we see the current price of crude oil
23:04 globally increasing.
23:06 Yesterday, the government opened a speech
23:08 for the adjustment of the price of BBM.
23:11 So, the point is, we are talking about
23:14 the real income of the people, which continues to decline.
23:17 Where the nominal income remains,
23:19 while the living cost continues to increase.
23:22 Related to the price of food,
23:24 then also the price of electricity, or electricity tariffs,
23:26 and also other tariffs.
23:28 So, this will also affect the people's spending.
23:31 And in the end, the phenomenon of food savings
23:34 will no longer be tolerated.
23:36 Therefore, earlier, related to the government policy,
23:39 related to consumption and other tariff reductions,
23:44 this really needs to be studied thoroughly.
23:47 So that it does not have a negative impact on the economy.
23:51 Because we know that the global situation is not good.
23:54 Therefore, we can only rely on the domestic economy.
23:58 Therefore, the government needs to be careful
24:01 in adjusting the price.
24:04 So that our economy will not be affected by the condition.
24:10 Okay, Prof. Joshua.
24:11 Prof. Dwi, what if this price adjustment
24:15 does not have an impact or suppress our inflation rate?
24:19 If we are talking about an ideal increase
24:22 for the price of food in Indonesia,
24:24 especially rice, at the level of farmers
24:26 and also consumers who feel it.
24:28 Please, Prof.
24:29 Actually, for farmers,
24:33 we hope for a fair policy.
24:35 All this time, the government policy
24:38 has been too heavy on the consumer.
24:40 So when the price rises, what do we do?
24:42 Import, import, import.
24:43 We must remember that in the last 10 years,
24:46 the import of food commodities has jumped almost twice.
24:51 From USD 10 billion in 2013,
24:54 to USD 18.6 billion.
24:57 Do we just give USD 200-300 trillion to foreign farmers?
25:03 So there needs to be a fairer policy.
25:06 All this time, the policy has been imposed by the government
25:09 to set a policy for fair losses for farmers.
25:13 That's the policy setting.
25:15 It should be reversed to be a fair profit for farmers.
25:19 That's what happened in 2023.
25:22 It's reflected in the value of the NTP,
25:26 the value of food crops.
25:28 It's at 107.
25:29 Before that, it was below 100.
25:32 For the last 10 years,
25:35 the value of food crops exchange was only 101.
25:39 And in the last 10 years,
25:41 the value of food crops exchange has been below 100 for 5 years.
25:45 What does that mean?
25:46 It means that the farmers are forced to suffer losses
25:49 to support who?
25:51 To support consumers.
25:52 This policy is not right.
25:54 We must change the policy setting
25:57 if we want to save the food sector.
26:00 So if the farmer's income increases,
26:03 the price will be controlled.
26:07 Don't reverse it.
26:09 To please the consumers,
26:10 just import large quantities.
26:12 Indonesia is done.
26:13 If it's not approved, it will be like that.
26:16 Okay, Prof.
26:17 What's important is justice.
26:20 For Indonesian farmers.
26:23 Okay.
26:24 That's it.
26:25 Okay, Prof.
26:26 Thank you for the information and recommendations.
26:29 Thank you, Mr. Joshua Pardini,
26:31 for the analysis you gave.
26:33 I hope the price of food
26:35 is in line with the farmer's will
26:37 and doesn't have a significant impact on the inflation rate.
26:40 On the other hand,
26:41 the Indonesian economy
26:43 is growing as expected.
26:47 Thank you for your time,
26:49 and for the information you gave.
26:51 Thank you, Prof. Dwi.
26:52 Keep up your activities.
26:54 Stay healthy.
26:55 Thank you.
26:56 Stay healthy, Mr. Joshua.
26:59 Stay healthy.
27:00 Don't leave your seat, viewers.
27:02 We'll be back with another interesting topic.
27:05 It's about the controversy of giving agricultural business license
27:09 to religious ormas.
27:11 Market Review will be back soon.
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