India vote count shows Modi alliance winning surprisingly narrow majority
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00To India, where vote counting is underway as Narendra Modi seeks a third term in power.
00:06The election has been seen as a referendum on his past decade as India's Prime Minister.
00:12And although the count is ongoing, a picture is starting to emerge.
00:16So far, it is not the landslide Modi and his BJP were hoping for.
00:21The party does appear headed for victory, but the opposition Congress party did better than expected
00:27and thus Modi's majority could be smaller than forecast.
00:32Well, nonetheless, today, Modi himself took to the platform
00:35X claiming that he and his allies are victorious. We've had that voice. Take a listen.
00:42People have placed their faith in NDA for a third consecutive time.
00:47This is a historical feat in India's history.
00:50With me here in the studio, our India expert Lila Jacinto. And Lila, look,
00:55what surprises have there been so far in the vote count?
00:57Nadia, this was the election that everybody was saying was a foregone conclusion.
01:01And now we're talking about surprises.
01:03Well, the surprises are basically, in short, on three fronts.
01:07The ruling party, the opposition, and Uttar Pradesh, the country's most populous state.
01:15On the ruling party front, the surprises were actually that the ruling party scored its own goals.
01:22In the first place, it set up a target of more than 400 seats in a parliament of 543 seats.
01:29They set up the narrative of this supermajority.
01:34The supermajority narrative triggered fears that the ruling party,
01:38that Modi, if he wins a third term, will change the Indian constitution.
01:42This absolutely rallied and galvanized the opposition and the critics of Modi.
01:52The second own goal that the BJP, we can now look in hindsight and see,
01:57was that the fact that going into this election, it was so not free and fair.
02:03You know, the jailing of top opposition leaders just before the election,
02:08the freezing of the main opposition party's bank account,
02:12the fact that the mainstream media was completely not free.
02:17What that did was that galvanized civil society and social media communicators,
02:24not the mainstream media.
02:26It also galvanized the opposition.
02:28And the opposition over the past decade has been a no-show.
02:32But this time, the surprise was that the opposition formed an alliance.
02:38They managed to have a seat-sharing deal, which surprised everyone.
02:43And they held it together.
02:45And most important, they kept to their message.
02:48Their message was a social justice platform.
02:52They never, you know, they didn't deter from it.
02:56And they talked about the fears of changing the constitution,
03:01which led to the third surprise, which was the largest state of Uttar Pradesh.
03:06You know, this has 80 seats in parliament.
03:11The saying in Indian politics is the road to New Delhi passes through Uttar Pradesh.
03:17Prime Minister Modi runs from the state,
03:20so does the main opposition leader run from the state.
03:23And this change in constitution also triggered fears.
03:27One, of the Muslims, because under Modi,
03:31the Muslims have been extremely seriously targeted.
03:34So they were never going to give the BJP the vote bank.
03:37Two, the BJP was making an outreach to India's lowest caste, the Dalits.
03:44You know, these are so low on the caste system that they're actually out of the caste system.
03:49But what the Dalits feared was with a change in constitution
03:54would come a change in the equality that the constitution of India guarantees them
04:00and the right to have reservations or affirmative actions to pull up the backward caste.
04:06And so what we are seeing in Uttar Pradesh, which nobody saw coming,
04:10was that the party which is part of the opposition alliance is doing extremely well.
04:16And we are now in sort of uncharted territory,
04:19where could the person who holds the prime minister's seat in New Delhi not control Uttar Pradesh?
04:27It's very, very surprising.
04:29Well, we're entering uncharted territory, as you say.
04:32So forgive me, Leela, for asking you then what's probably a rather difficult question.
04:36Look, what do you think happens now?
04:38I think there's going to be a lot of coalition talking.
04:42If it's on the opposition front that needs to do coalition talks, they're very used to it.
04:48They've managed to put together a campaign
04:51and they have shown some sign of being able to compromise.
04:54But ultimately, if they have to form government, that will be a difficult one.
05:01But the Modi years have been such an onslaught on them that they could pull it together.
05:06Completely uncharted waters is having Narendra Modi in a coalition.
05:11This is not a man who has ever been in a coalition.
05:15He is an absolute leader.
05:16He runs a personality cult.
05:20And his party is in an alliance with pretty big regional parties that are headed by
05:26seasoned politicians who are not going to roll over to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
05:32So this story continues and it continues to be interesting.
05:36All right.
05:37Such an interesting election.
05:38Thank you very much indeed for your analysis, Leela Jacinto, for us there.