The signs all point to an overall conservative majority, but the EPP, ECR, and ID will struggle to find the common ground needed to form a right-wing coalition. The inconsistent national and political interests among different conservative forces are creating divisions that are simply too deep.
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00:00 Europe's ultra-conservative parties are being forced to seek out more moderate political
00:06 allies in an attempt to secure enough votes to influence future EU legislation. According
00:12 to the Euro News Super Polls, while the conservatives are expected to see significant gains in the
00:18 upcoming elections, they are still too divided to produce a viable EU commission leader.
00:25 If we think about Giorgio Meloni, for example, the Italian Prime Minister, we have to understand
00:31 that when we look at the leadership in the European right, we have also to see, to take
00:38 in account that we are talking about leaders that in some cases are also head of government,
00:44 so they have different interests.
00:48 According to the Euro News Polls Centre simulations, if the conservatives decide to go into coalition,
00:54 their best option would be to join up with the Liberals of the Renew party. This way
00:58 they could match up parliamentary seat distribution with the Realpolitik of the EU government.
01:04 Coalition between the conservative groups would be difficult as it would be too weighted
01:08 towards the right. There are also many issues the two main far-right parties, the European
01:13 Conservatives and Reformists, led by Italy's Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, and the Identity
01:18 and Democracy Party, led by France's Marine Le Pen, are not united on.
01:25 At the moment, the only issue that can create some cohesion within the right is the struggle
01:29 against immigration. But even then, solutions to the matter differ between the southern
01:34 flank and the eastern and northern parts of the EU.
01:38 The centre of gravity will certainly move to the right. And this is something the EPP,
01:46 which will then be the central player, will be able to use as a blackmail potential vis-Ã -vis
01:50 the Liberals and the Social Democrats, if not the Agrines. I don't believe that the
01:55 EPP is serious about working with identity and a democracy. That would also be political
02:01 suicide at the national level. But they will certainly use it.
02:06 According to the Euro News Polls Centre, Europe's mainstream political parties are likely to
02:11 face the difficult task of creating a ruling parliament using votes from the fragmented
02:16 radical right bloc.
02:17 (crowd cheering)
02:20 (whooshing)