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00:00Thanks for tuning into India Decides 2024. As we've been saying for the past 48 hours,
00:13it will pay to hear what big money is thinking about when it comes to this election verdict
00:19and the outlook post that for risk assets, particularly equities. In line with that,
00:26somebody that I have very high regard for, founder and CIO of ValueQuest Investment Advisors,
00:30Ravi Dharamshree Johnson, right now on the show. Ravi, great having you. Thanks for taking
00:34the time out. I hope all is well.
00:36Thanks, Neeraj. Pleasure to be here. Yes, all good.
00:40Yeah. Okay. And Ravi, the pleasure is entirely yours, I must say. Just trying to understand,
00:45Ravi, we spoke to you about 48 hours ago. The scene has changed a little bit or quite
00:49a bit depending on which prism you watch it through. What's your sense about what does
00:55it mean? I'll come to portfolios in a bit. What's your sense about what does it mean
01:00from how would a portfolio investors watch investing into India, both global or local
01:09as the case may be, because you manage global money as well. So it'll be great to get that
01:12sense from you.
01:13Yeah. No, I think first thing that comes out is that democracy is well and alive in India.
01:22It's kicking and it's vibrant. Nobody can doubt the EVMs. Nobody can doubt that electorate
01:29has a mind of its own. Doesn't matter how much fake narratives or, you know, anything
01:38that you put at them, they will give a verdict which is in their best interest. So I think
01:44that is the big takeaway from the election result. I mean, besides that, I would just
01:52say the fact that from an investor's perspective, the government is likely to come back maybe
02:01with coalition partners, but still that doesn't change too many things. So policy continuity
02:08and political stability might be a little bit challenged, but I don't see that as a
02:13major challenge.
02:14Okay. Well, Moody's doesn't seem to be seeing that either. There are flashes on your screen
02:20such as that they believe that the NDA win suggests India policy would continue. Fiscal
02:25metrics, they say to remain weak. Okay. We'll wait for some more flashes as well. But keep
02:30in mind, rating agencies and what they say would be extremely important in the near to
02:34the medium term.
02:36So, therefore, are you saying that on most macro accounts, be it the fiscal glide path,
02:45be it the policies that have been towards Atma Nirbhar Bharat in a lot of areas, the
02:52CapEx thrust, etc. To your mind, those would continue?
02:58So I have no doubt those thrusts will continue. But even before we get into that, even prior
03:05to the election, our view was that central government's ability to push the envelope
03:11on the CapEx cycle is getting more and more limited. It would not be them that would be
03:17carrying forward the CapEx cycle, but it would be the state governments as well as the private
03:23sector that has to take the gauntlet from here and move the CapEx cycle forward. And
03:28I do believe, just like 2004, there was a regime change, but that did not stop the cycle.
03:37Cycle continued. I do believe even today, in fact, today even government hasn't changed.
03:44The cycle has been put into motion and that cycle is unlikely to change, even if there
03:49was to be a government change, but which is not the case. So even lesser reason to believe
03:54that there will be a change. However, having said that, can there be some incremental noise
04:03or focus on rural, agri supporting the bottom of the pyramid? I don't rule it out. In fact,
04:12I believe there is a need for that. Just a free grain scheme is not good enough to support
04:21that. And we should see some more, I don't know, more actions being taken to support
04:28the bottom of the pyramid. So, okay, Ravi, so yeah, I know, please finish your point.
04:33No, sir, without compromising on the fiscal glide path.
04:37Okay, so fiscal glide path remains as is. Now let's try and focus on what you,
04:41what could this mean from a portfolio construction perspective? Ravi,
04:45would love to understand that. How was the construct of the portfolio preverting?
04:50Because I heard you say that even ahead of the election verdict, you thought that the
04:53government thrust on CapEx could be limited. So did you moderate CapEx bets if you had them?
04:58And if not, would you look to do them now? Because there is an opportunity that may come up
05:03in the minds of the market albeit right now for consumption, et cetera, because the market may in
05:08its wisdom want to believe, as you said, that you believe too, that there is a need and possibly a
05:13policy thrust towards rural, towards consumption, which brings about maybe investing opportunities
05:18in those spaces? Yes, absolutely. As I was mentioning, within CapEx, it is not like the
05:25CapEx cycle comes to an end. It is just that companies and stocks dependent on central
05:32government are the ones that are going to face challenge. Also, there are some areas which were
05:39witnessing euphoria. I think that euphoria will die down. And you know what we are talking about.
05:45We are basically talking about the public sector own units, maybe defense, maybe some,
05:52you know, really leveraged plays on infrastructure or companies which are perceived to be close to
06:00the government. All those kinds of companies might have a challenge from going point forward. But if
06:06there is a company which is catering to the private CapEx cycle, that is unlikely to have
06:13any kind of an issue. So, we actually focus on, you know, within the CapEx cycle also we try to
06:21see how much of that is B2G and how much of that is B2P, if I were to say. Coming to the consumption,
06:29yes, incrementally, there will be some amount of shift happening. And even again, this was also
06:39prior to the election results, there was a need, there is a pressing need to support the bottom of
06:47the pyramid. And I think that will happen. Whether that, how fiscally indisciplined we are in giving
06:57that thrust remains to be seen, but I would err on the side of guessing that they will not be
07:05compromising on the fiscal discipline despite that focus on the bottom of the pyramid. Now,
07:12from a portfolio manager's perspective, what we are looking for is signs, triggers,
07:19reading the TLIFs that tell us that, okay, the regime in the market is changing.
07:25Two factors usually that go into it, one is, of course, the valuation and second is
07:30that there is an outlook that has just changed for the better. So, from valuation's perspective,
07:38I cannot say that the valuation in the consumption space are very, very cheap
07:42and does not matter what happens, one should be placing a bet over here.
07:47But relatively, they had become better as compared to some of the capital goods play,
07:52some of the consumption plays were relatively better. Second, not too much of money has flown
07:59into the sector. So, if the money flow continues, it will find a space to hide in these areas.
08:08So, from that perspective, a relative outperformance has already begun, but whether
08:14that leads to a sustained absolute outperformance, that will depend on some of the presumption that
08:21we have regarding the fiscal imprudence panning out.
08:27Okay. So, Ravi, just sticking with that point for a bit before I move to some of the others,
08:32and I'm not including defence, not including PSUs currently, that's coming up. But first this,
08:38prior to this election verdict, some of the private CAPEX beneficiaries as well,
08:43the valuations had moved up quite a bit. A lot of people said that if FMCG trades at a particular
08:48valuation, why can't some of these companies also do? Because the order flow seems good,
08:52some of them are MNCs, great modes around the business, longevity of growth, so on, so forth.
08:57Now, I heard you say that central government trust beneficiaries might get impacted,
09:03but private CAPEX beneficiaries might not. But CAPEX as a theme, if it is coming under a little
09:08bit of a, not a question mark, but a bit of a tempering, would some of these expensive MNC
09:15stocks or some of the private CAPEX linked stocks as well cool off? And would maybe FMCG,
09:21which is naturally not cheap per se, but cheap relative to only its own history,
09:27be able to gain at that expense? So, that would be the base case.
09:33Does it mean, from a long-term investor's perspective, a six, nine months of underperformance
09:41or relative underperformance should lead to a dramatic change in the portfolio?
09:46In my opinion, see the drivers of some of these private CAPEX cycle are not dependent on the
09:53government. For example, the money that is being spent on energy transition worldwide
10:00is not dependent on which government comes at the helm. Yeah, surely there will be some
10:05prioritization and reprioritization, but as humanity, there is a pressing need to
10:11enforce the energy transition. Now, within energy transition also,
10:16if we actually have to ensure that we do this energy transition successfully, then the power
10:22transmission CAPEX, there is no choice. We have to lay that out and it has to happen in the next
10:28seven years. So, the drivers are not changing and these drivers are well and truly in place.
10:36So, can it lead to a quarter or two of delay here and there? I can't rule that out. But if you're
10:43thinking three years, five years, I don't think there is a need to dramatically change or move
10:48away from, say, for example, power transmission CAPEX theme. And Ravi, just one follow-up to that
10:55before we take a break as well, or maybe a couple of questions before the break.
10:58But on consumption, the last 24-odd months, what had gained was this premiumization theme,
11:09the K-shaped consumption pattern really ruled the roost. Now, if indeed staples and some of
11:16the rural consumption-focused stocks make a comeback, does the premiumization story
11:22come under question mark or that story also continues and gains or keep the premium multiples,
11:30if you will? So, I wouldn't, see, there are two parts to it. One is whether the companies will
11:37continue to grow and whether the earnings will continue to grow. I think there is reasonable
11:44certainty that earnings will continue to grow for these companies. But the second part of the
11:49equation is the valuations. Valuations had captured a lot of that growth. So, from a relative
11:58value perspective, I think getting into plays which cater to the bottom of the pyramid will
12:05probably yield better returns over a three, five-year horizon than getting into companies
12:10that are catering to the premium end of the segment. But having said that, I don't see
12:15premium end of the segment faltering in a big way based on what we have just seen.
12:21Ravi, I want to come to you. I want to start off with the lenders because I did hear you say
12:26that some of the premiums that were attached to maybe some of the PSU companies might also
12:30come off if I'm not wrong. My question to you is this, four years of outperformance,
12:34everybody believed this will continue. Does that come into question mark, one, because of
12:38fundamentals and two, because of risks at the horizon, right? I mean, do loan waivers come back,
12:44what have you? I mean, there are multiple things out there. Yeah. No, I definitely do belong to the
12:51camp that thinks that this year the men will be separated from the boys. And I believe the entire
13:00trade in the PSU, especially the banks, was related to the fact that we had no NPA cycle
13:08kind of bottomed out and the growth was very high. But now, if you look at the balance sheets of
13:15these PSU banks, they are all stretched. Their ability to draw deposits, their ability to raise
13:24equity, both are still very questionable. And I think this year now maybe with some amount of
13:30circumspect coming into the markets, it might not be so easy to raise funds at the valuations that
13:36they are trading. When they were trading at a much cheaper valuation, ability to attract capital
13:42was far, far better. So in both the scenarios where whether you are competing with the private
13:49banks for raising capital or drawing deposits, both the things, I would give private banks
13:57better ability to do that. So in that kind of a scenario, I think then finally the shift will
14:05start happening. That is the fundamental reason. The technical reason is, of course, that FIIs have
14:11been sellers in the market. And naturally, IT and financials are the two spaces which are most owned
14:17because these are the two largest pockets in the large cap space. Going forward, I feel, I mean,
14:24even within IT and financials, it's been the financials that has borne most of the brunt.
14:29And probably a couple of the large private banks being in a transition phase hasn't helped the
14:35cause. Going forward, that should change. And because these remain strong franchisee,
14:41I think people making a case that they are permanently shifting from a 20-25 percent
14:48kind of a growth to a 10-15 percent kind of a growth and hence the derating in the multiples,
14:54I think they are missing the big picture. I think we are still relatively very, very small
14:59in terms of the size of the economy and in terms of the bank size in the context of the economy.
15:06So I would not rule out a higher growth in GDP and then a higher multiplier for some of
15:13these banks to grow and growth along with profitability. The ability to go to 18-20
15:20percent kind of ROEs does exist for a lot of these banks. And if that is the case,
15:26then my bet would be definitely from the next 3-5 years perspective on private banks rather than
15:30the public sector banks. Will we see the reversal of that is the question. Ravi Dharamshi believes
15:34his bets are out there. The other aspect, Ravi, everybody was completely focused around domestic
15:40focus themes and maybe the growth is still going to be made. In fact, I would presume
15:44that growth will still be stronger in India. But do you take some bit of a global exposure?
15:49Chemical stocks haven't gone anywhere for so many months or quarters or years, if you will.
15:54You track pharmaceuticals so well and so closely all through your life.
15:58Do you take exposure to some of those globally linked themes, even IT for that matter?
16:04Large IT services I would leave out. But from an otherwise perspective, just the fact that
16:12chemical companies have not done anything significant over the last three years and
16:18the larger theme still remains where we replace China as a partner, maybe a second partner in
16:26terms of the global supply chain. Yes, that trend remains intact. Valuations are now getting to a
16:34point where they're starting to make much more sense than they were three years back. Just to
16:38give you statistics in the year 2021, India added some 60-70 billionaires. Out of that 60-70
16:48billionaires, probably 80-90% of those billionaires were from the chemical industry.
16:53Now, when that kind of a wealth creation has happened in an industry, obviously, we are
16:58looking at the rearview mirror. And what followed in the next three years is for everybody to see.
17:03We saw the margins compressed dramatically. We saw China coming back into the market and dumping
17:09a lot of the product. So now, going forward, the chemical theme, I think, rather than take a
17:15top-down view on chemicals, it should be a more bottom-up view. Which are the companies that have
17:20the ability to withstand Chinese competition? Which are the ones where the valuations have
17:24corrected and the fundamentals are bottomed? Those companies I would like to place a bet on
17:32because the relative as well as absolute valuations are now looking favourable.
17:36All right. I have maybe a set of two final questions. Do you believe that the focus shift,
17:45I think, if I'm not wrong, focus shifts from CapEx to RevEx? I would love to understand
17:51what goes behind that thought.
17:54No, so as I mentioned, finally, the dollar that government has to spend is limited.
18:02Central government has been carrying the burden in terms of the CapEx cycle for the last four,
18:10five years. Now the government's ability to spend more on the CapEx is going to be limited. Also,
18:16see, you have to see that it's not that you can generate an infrastructure project out of thin
18:22air. It doesn't matter how much your intent is to push the CapEx cycle. It takes time because
18:30giving, conceptualizing large projects, bringing them to life and then funding them
18:37takes a lot of time. So from that perspective, some of the dollar will be spent more towards
18:45the revenue expenditure, which basically ties in with the fact that the government probably did not
18:52read the writing that the bottom of the pyramid is suffering. They're looking for some
19:00more support besides just free grain scheme. So from that perspective, some amount of support
19:06needs to come. Second, I also do believe that government has the elbow room, especially on the
19:14GST front to cut rates. This might not exactly address the bottom of the pyramid, but more the
19:20urban middle class. But I do believe that we are reaching a stage where some rationalization of
19:29the GST rates should be on the card. Again, this is not a decision which only central government
19:34will take, but those kinds of things should give further legs to the revival of the consumption in
19:40the economy. And consumption and services are a large part of the economy and they have been
19:46kind of, I won't say neglect, neglect is a very strong word, but not been the priority of this
19:53government. This has always been on supply side reforms. I think some of that needs to shift
19:59to creating the demand as well. Got it. Got it. Fair call. My final question, Ravi, and you very
20:07well say that all of this opens up more sectors, companies in other sectors to look forward to as
20:13well. I would love to understand. So one is well understood that consumption, rural consumption,
20:18et cetera, may get a look in. What happens to the agrarian space? Because that is,
20:24again, a space that has hurt quite a bit in the recent past. Is there a policy move that
20:30could help agrarian or could there be a natural cyclical up move there?
20:34Well, I think secular as well as cyclical up move are in the offing over there. And I believe if we
20:42have to point out one failure of this government over the last 10 years, I think it would be that
20:49they have not managed to double the farm income. The intent was all there. Of course, a lot of it
20:56is probably to do with the fact that they could not move ahead with the farm and agri reforms that
21:04were planned. But having said that, there is no choice for this government in this particular term
21:10to ensure that the farming income doubles and that the cycle turning, monsoon being
21:21normal and some amount of maybe MSP support, maybe wealth effect through
21:31gold and land prices rising, all of that should give rise to the income as well as wealth effect.
21:37And hopefully, we are able to do wealth at the bottom of the pyramid. We need to reduce that
21:45income inequality that's been the cause for problem for the last few years.
21:53Ravi, splendid talking to you today. Thanks. An overarching view on multiple things.
21:57Great picking your brains and thanks for your time.
22:00Thank you, Neeraj. Glad to be here.
22:02The pleasure was ours. And viewers, thanks for tuning in to India Decides 2024. Important to
22:08attack it from multiple views. And I think in the last half an hour, we had a very large money
22:13manager talking about how he thinks about this election verdict and investing implications.
22:18Thanks for tuning in.
22:32Transcribed by https://otter.ai