Pelemahan Daya Beli Tekan Penjualan Mobil pada Mei 2024

  • 4 months ago
Kinerja industri otomotif nasional, khususnya penjualan mobil di sepanjang bulan Januari hingga Mei 2024 tercatat menunjukkan tren penurunan. Data Gabungan Industri Kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia (Gaikindo) menyebutkan, angka penjualan mobil secara wholesales atau dari pabrik ke dealer sejak awal tahun turun hingga 21%, menjadi 334.969 unit dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun 2023, sebesar 423.771 unit.

Sementara penjualan ritel selama lima bulan pertama tahun ini juga mengalami kelesuan yang sama, turun 14,4% dari sebelumnya 422.514 unit, menjadi 361.698 unit. Meski demikian, Gaikindo masih belum mau merevisi target penjualan mobil di tahun 2024 sebanyak 1,1 juta unit

Sejumlah faktor dinilai menjadi pemicu melemahnya permintaan terhadap produk otomotif, khususnya mobil di masyarakat. Faktor tersebut di antaranya kenaikan suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia atau BI Rate, pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah dan kondis ekonomi global. Di sisi lain, ada pergeseran daya beli pada masyarakat kelas menengah, di mana lebih memprioritaskan konsumsi kebutuhan pokok, dibandingkan membeli mobil yang masih dianggap sebagai barang tersier.

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Transcript
00:00Indonesia's Economic Movement
00:15Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:17Live from the AIDX Studio in Jakarta, I'm Prasetya Webow.
00:20Welcome to Market Review, which will discuss the issues of Indonesia's economic movement.
00:24And this time, we will discuss the automotive sector,
00:27where the performance of wholesale and retail sales
00:31during January to May 2024 tend to decline.
00:36What are the reasons?
00:38Let's start the complete Market Review.
00:42Market Review
00:50Yes, viewers, the number of wholesale and retail sales in May 2024
00:55fell to double digits and weakened the level of public consumption.
00:59It is reported to be one of the drivers of the decline in demand for automotive products.
01:05Automotive Industry Manager
01:08The National Automotive Industry Manager, especially car sales,
01:11during January to May 2024 is reported to be showing a decline.
01:16Data from the Indonesian Motor Vehicle Industry, or Geekendo, states
01:20that the number of wholesale and retail car sales since the beginning of the year has dropped to 21%,
01:26to 334,969 units,
01:29compared to the same year in 2023, which was 423,771 units.
01:37Meanwhile, retail sales for the first five months of this year also experienced the same decline,
01:41down 14.4%.
01:44From previously as large as 422,514 units, to 361,698 units.
01:51Nevertheless, Geekendo still does not want to reflect the target of car sales in 2024,
01:55which is as much as 1.1 million units.
02:00A number of factors are considered to be the reason for the decline in demand for automotive products,
02:04especially cars in the community.
02:06These factors include an increase in the rate of the Indonesian Bank or Bay Rate,
02:10a drop in the value of rupiah and the global economic conditions.
02:13On the other hand, there is an increase in the demand to buy the community in the middle class,
02:16which is more about the consumption of basic necessities
02:19than buying a car that is still considered a tertiary item.
02:22From Jakarta, IDX Jemoh coverage team.
02:53Good morning, Mr. Kuku.
02:56Good morning, Mr. Jemoh. Good morning, Mr. Yanis.
02:59Good morning.
03:01Okay, thank you for your time.
03:03Mr. Kuku, let's update.
03:05What is actually happening in our car industry?
03:09If we look at the sales figures that have been reported,
03:12wholesale, retail, from January to May,
03:15why is there a decline?
03:18Please, Mr. Kuku.
03:19Yes, thank you.
03:21So, this decline is actually a surprise.
03:24It happened at the end of last year,
03:28in 2023.
03:30We remember that in August 2023, we had an exhibition.
03:34The sales were quite good.
03:35However, in September, there was a drop at that time.
03:39We were also surprised.
03:41However, there are several events that we also need to look at.
03:45First, in that year, there was also an increase in the FED's flow rate.
03:50Well, it has an impact.
03:52Then, the NPV increased.
03:56Well, with the increase in the NPV,
03:59the credit was subsidized by financial services providers.
04:0680% of motor vehicle purchases use credit.
04:12Well, with the subsidization of credit, there was a decline.
04:16Before the problem was solved,
04:19there was indeed an increase in November.
04:23There was a improvement.
04:24Because in September and October, there was a decline.
04:27The NPV increased the subsidization of credit.
04:30At the end of the year, there was a regulation issued by the OJK
04:34to protect consumers.
04:37One of them is when the credit is in trouble,
04:41it can't be more than seven o'clock at night, and so on.
04:45This caused concerns from financial services providers.
04:50And they tightened the credit regulation again.
04:52This added to the impact on motor vehicle credit.
04:58Then, in 2024, we had an election.
05:04This election also caused the people to vote.
05:08Alhamdulillah, the election was good.
05:11However, the vote also affected motor vehicle sales.
05:15Earlier in the discussion,
05:17most of our cars are cars that are popular with the public.
05:22The middle class is better than the rich.
05:24Okay.
05:25Well, this has a big impact.
05:29In February, the election was over.
05:31In March, there was a break.
05:33In March, there was a break.
05:35In April, there was a break.
05:37The concentration of sales is not yet in the cars.
05:41So, in April, there was a drop.
05:43Alhamdulillah, in May, there was an increase.
05:46We entered the 71,000 wholesale sales.
05:50We hope that by the end of the year,
05:53there will be improvements in motor vehicle sales.
05:56Because most of the middle class
06:00buys cars that cost more than 300 million.
06:05Not more than that.
06:07If it's more than that, it's not a problem,
06:09said Mr. Yanis earlier.
06:10Indeed, our data also shows that.
06:12Okay.
06:13That's it, Mr. Pras, Mr. Yanis.
06:14But usually, during Ramadan,
06:17the number of motor vehicle sales is increasing, right?
06:21Or not?
06:22How is that, actually?
06:24So, the data, during Eid,
06:27there was a drop of around 30 percent.
06:31Total sales.
06:33Why is that?
06:34One of the reasons is,
06:36people used to buy cars for fun.
06:38But the working days are short.
06:41That's usually up to 22 working days.
06:44That's only half of it.
06:46Okay, okay.
06:48Okay, Mr. Yanis.
06:49From your point of view,
06:50as an automotive expert,
06:52there were some momentum that seemed
06:54to be one of the factors.
06:56One of the factors was the drop in purchasing power
06:58or the sale of motor vehicles,
07:00especially cars.
07:01From your own point of view, how is that, Mr. Yanis?
07:03So, if you look at it,
07:05from around, I forgot,
07:072009, I think.
07:10Until now,
07:11as Mr. Kukuh said earlier,
07:15the trend of Indonesian car sales
07:18is also trapped.
07:19Okay.
07:20In the one million trap.
07:22So, it doesn't want to go up.
07:24And if we look at it,
07:26the numbers of inflation and so on
07:29look good.
07:31Yes.
07:32But one thing we need to pay attention to,
07:35this is interesting,
07:36in Indonesia,
07:38the biggest segmentation
07:40is the middle class.
07:43Yes, yes.
07:44And that can be seen from the sales data
07:47for,
07:49you could say,
07:51over ten years.
07:52Okay.
07:53The one that supports Indonesian car sales
07:56is LCGC.
07:57Yes.
07:58Yes.
07:59So, actually, it doesn't mean
08:01that our people like cars
08:04with limited specs, technology, and features.
08:07Actually, they want better features,
08:09better technology,
08:10but they buy it,
08:11it looks like it's hard to go up in ten years.
08:14Okay.
08:15And that's why
08:19LCGC is the most popular.
08:21And one more interesting thing,
08:23actually,
08:24in LCGC,
08:25because there are several brands
08:28that launched LCGC 3-Row,
08:31it's one of the ones that boost
08:33Indonesian car sales.
08:35So, Indonesian people are very happy
08:37with a car that can
08:40carry a lot, but,
08:42because there are limited options,
08:44it's locked there.
08:45Okay, okay.
08:46I have some data
08:47that will also be delivered to the audience.
08:49You can see the complete data.
08:51Look, this is the car sales
08:53in May 2024.
08:55Yearly, let's look at the units.
08:57In May 2023,
08:59there are 82,189 units.
09:02If compared to May 2024,
09:0571,263 units,
09:08it's 13.3%.
09:11If we compare it
09:12in terms of whole sales,
09:13the complete data
09:14can be shown like this.
09:16This is in May 2024,
09:1813.3%,
09:19and next,
09:20we can see the whole sales
09:22from January to May.
09:24It even went down even further,
09:2621%,
09:27from 423,700 units
09:30to 334,969 units
09:34in January-May 2024.
09:36Then,
09:37we can see the retail sales
09:39are not much different.
09:4012.6% decrease
09:42in May 2023
09:44compared to May 2024.
09:47That is retail sales
09:48in May only.
09:49Meanwhile,
09:50in January to May 2024,
09:53it went down 14.4%.
09:57Okay, on average,
09:58the whole sales and retail
10:00are in double digits.
10:01Maybe you can explain it like that.
10:03Is the momentum
10:04really able to
10:05control the sales
10:07as a whole,
10:09and what is the target?
10:11As we know,
10:12the sales are 1.1 million units
10:14in 2024.
10:17Yes.
10:18That's right.
10:19We haven't changed
10:20the target to 1.1 million units,
10:21even though it's quite heavy.
10:23Maybe because it's only
10:24the last 6-7 months.
10:26However,
10:27we remember
10:28that now there are no
10:29other events.
10:30Hopefully,
10:31there won't be any new distortions.
10:33Next month,
10:34in July,
10:35we will start the gears.
10:37The gears will start
10:38from July 18
10:40to July 28
10:42in BSD.
10:43Hopefully,
10:44it will increase again
10:45because there will be
10:46a lot of products
10:47that will be displayed.
10:49I agree with what Mr. Yanis said earlier.
10:52LCGC is still
10:53one of the keys.
10:55What I said earlier
10:56is that our community
10:57tends to look for
10:59cars that cost
11:01less than 300 million USD.
11:03There are cars above that,
11:04and they don't need credit.
11:06Actually, luxury cars
11:07won't be
11:08disturbed too much.
11:10However,
11:11the ones that are disturbed
11:12and the number is high
11:13are the ones in the LCGC group earlier.
11:15Although it has changed now,
11:17if we remember
11:18when COVID-19 happened
11:20and then in 2021
11:21there was an incentive,
11:23many people are looking for
11:25cars that cost the same.
11:27And it's quite effective
11:28to revive
11:30our industry again.
11:31If we look at
11:33what is happening in Indonesia,
11:34Mr. Pras and Mr. Yanis,
11:36we are not alone.
11:37Because Thailand was also hit.
11:39The Philippines was also hit.
11:40What is still sustainable
11:42is Malaysia.
11:43Even Thailand
11:44went down
11:45last year
11:46in the amount of 700 thousand.
11:48Meanwhile,
11:49it was overtaken
11:50by Malaysia
11:51whose total sales
11:53last year was almost 800 thousand.
11:55We are still
11:56at 1 million last year.
11:58We hope
11:59we can survive
12:01even though there will be
12:03adjustments.
12:05However,
12:06learning from Malaysia,
12:08Malaysia can reach
12:09almost 800 thousand.
12:11It still maintains
12:12its incentive policy
12:14during COVID-19
12:15until now.
12:17This is interesting to hear.
12:19Because the impact of this industry
12:21is not about sales,
12:23but also the problem of the industry
12:25that gives
12:26a boost
12:27to economic growth.
12:29Okay.
12:30So, what are the efforts
12:31or strategies that need to be implemented?
12:33Maybe Mr. Yanis can explain.
12:34But we will
12:35pause for a moment,
12:36Mr. Yanis and Mr. Kuku.
12:37We will discuss
12:38in the next segment.
12:39And, Mr. Mirsa,
12:40stay with us.
12:58Thank you
12:59for joining us
13:00in Market Review.
13:01Next,
13:02we will share data
13:03about the best
13:04car sales brand
13:05in Indonesia.
13:06We will discuss
13:07based on
13:08retail sales,
13:09from distributors
13:11or dealers
13:12to the public.
13:13Toyota.
13:14We see
13:15the top position
13:1624,074 units.
13:17Followed by
13:18Daihatsu
13:19at 14,747 units.
13:22Honda.
13:23Mitsubishi.
13:24Suzuki.
13:25Isuzu.
13:26Fuso.
13:27Hyundai.
13:28Huling.
13:29And Hino.
13:30Next,
13:31we will see
13:32our currency exchange rate.
13:33This is data
13:34per 14 June
13:35at
13:3616,374 rupiah
13:38per US dollar.
13:41The movement
13:42continues to depreciate
13:43our currency exchange rate
13:44to the US dollar.
13:45We will continue
13:46to discuss
13:47with
13:48Mr. Yanis Martino
13:49from Pasar Ibu,
13:50an automotive observer.
13:51And also
13:52Mr. Kuku Kumara.
13:53He is
13:54the Secretary General
13:55of Gaikindo.
13:56Okay, Mr. Yanis,
13:57we will continue.
13:58As mentioned earlier,
13:59the data
14:00and some conditions
14:01make
14:02the sales rate
14:03a little bit
14:04under pressure.
14:05What do we need
14:06to discuss
14:07the strategy?
14:08The incentive
14:09is still a problem
14:10if we
14:11look at it
14:12from other countries.
14:13There is still something
14:14to be continued
14:15after COVID.
14:16If you look at it,
14:17do you need
14:18a shortcut
14:19or a solution
14:20to be a booster?
14:21Please.
14:22Okay.
14:23Maybe
14:24I will give
14:25a little information
14:26first
14:27about the problem.
14:28So the problem
14:29is actually
14:30this is outside
14:31automotive.
14:32Indonesia's
14:33growth
14:34is millenial.
14:35Yes.
14:36And
14:37some of the
14:38younger
14:39generation
14:40of baby boomers
14:41have a population
14:42of around 50 million people
14:43in Indonesia.
14:44So the motorbike
14:45for Indonesia's
14:46growth
14:47will be gold.
14:48And
14:49they now
14:50have
14:51the purchasing power
14:52for
14:53what was the term
14:54earlier?
14:55Tertiary products.
14:56Yes.
14:57Around 1.2 to 6 million
14:58a month.
14:59And the challenge
15:00is like what
15:01Mr. Kuku said
15:02earlier.
15:03With the increase
15:04of flowers.
15:05With the increase
15:06of flowers,
15:07this
15:08whether you like it
15:09or not,
15:10and
15:11the dollar
15:12too.
15:13This is the
15:14price of the
15:15imported components
15:16that are still
15:17quite good.
15:18This is rising.
15:19Not to mention
15:20the chain of
15:21passports that
15:22were disturbed
15:23due to the
15:24plan yesterday
15:25was also
15:26more troublesome.
15:27With the
15:28rising price
15:29and the
15:30purchasing power
15:31that can't
15:32even be
15:33compared to
15:34Indonesia's
15:35growth
15:36or even
15:37like the
15:38Chile case.
15:39Chile.
15:40It can't even
15:41go up.
15:42They even
15:43started to
15:44increase
15:45their
15:46taxes.
15:47Their
15:48personal taxes
15:49are also
15:50going up.
15:51Now,
15:52RPM and
15:53everything
15:54tend to
15:55go up.
15:56And
15:57the result
15:58is that
15:59their primary
16:00needs
16:01can go
16:02down from
16:031.2
16:04to 6 million
16:05or maybe
16:065 or 4.
16:07This is also
16:08troublesome for
16:09RPM
16:10to be able
16:11to sell their
16:12vehicles.
16:13Not to mention
16:14the credit
16:15requirements
16:16are getting
16:17more and more
16:18difficult.
16:19This is the
16:20problem.
16:21And it
16:22looks like
16:23since
16:24COVID-19
16:25yesterday,
16:26there was
16:27a temporary
16:28booming.
16:29It was
16:30very
16:31difficult
16:32for
16:33RPM
16:34to
16:35have
16:36savings.
16:37And
16:38it's
16:39proven.
16:40Once
16:41they're
16:42done
16:43spending,
16:44their
16:45savings
16:46don't
16:47go up
16:48because
16:49most of
16:50their
16:51subsidies
16:52are for
16:53the
16:54upper
16:55class
16:56and
16:57lower
16:58class.
16:59So,
17:00they should
17:01be able
17:02to
17:03benefit
17:04from
17:05that.
17:06But
17:07on the
17:08other hand,
17:09there are
17:10their
17:11primary
17:12needs
17:13which
17:14are
17:15also
17:16getting
17:17higher.
17:18So,
17:19the
17:20priority
17:21is
17:22to
17:23look
17:24at
17:25the
17:26impact
17:27on
17:28the
17:29lower
17:30class
17:31and
17:32the
17:33upper
17:34class.
17:35Okay,
17:36we'll continue
17:37our interesting
17:38discussion
17:39with the
17:40automotive
17:41industry.
17:42In the
17:43middle of
17:44the
17:45economic
17:46condition,
17:47there's
17:48an increase
17:49in the
17:50inflation rate
17:51and
17:52there's
17:53a reduction
17:54in the
17:55exchange
17:56rate.
17:57Yes,
17:58we hope
17:59there won't be
18:00too many
18:01disturbances
18:02and
18:03until the
18:04end of
18:05this
18:06year,
18:07we have
18:08to be
18:09able to
18:10survive.
18:11Even
18:12though,
18:13as I
18:14said
18:15earlier,
18:16we're
18:17stuck
18:18between
18:19rock and
18:20hard
18:21place.
18:22Okay.
18:23If we
18:24want to
18:25increase
18:26the
18:27inflation rate,
18:28we have
18:29to
18:30do it
18:31in Jakarta,
18:32Surabaya,
18:33Bandung,
18:34and
18:35Semarang.
18:36Hopefully,
18:37this will
18:38increase
18:39the
18:40people's
18:41purchasing
18:42power
18:43and
18:44the
18:45ability
18:46to
18:47sell
18:48motorcycles
18:49because
18:50it's
18:51very
18:52important.
18:53On the
18:54other
18:55hand,
18:56if we
18:57want to
18:58increase
18:59the
19:00inflation
19:01rate,
19:02what
19:03happens
19:04is,
19:05when the
19:06middle
19:07class
19:08wants
19:09to
19:10buy a
19:11new
19:12car,
19:13the
19:14price
19:15is not
19:16affordable.
19:17It
19:18turns out
19:19that there
19:20is a
19:21new
19:22choice,
19:23which
19:24is
19:25a
19:26new
19:27car.
19:28Now,
19:29the
19:30alternative
19:31is
19:32shifting.
19:33The
19:34problem is
19:35that
19:36the
19:37macro
19:38economy
19:39doesn't
19:40support
19:41the
19:42industry.
19:43That's
19:44the
19:45problem.
19:46But
19:47for the
19:48millennials,
19:49this is
19:50an
19:51alternative.
19:52When
19:53the
19:54middle
19:55class
19:56wants
19:57to
19:58buy a
19:59new
20:00car,
20:01the
20:02price
20:03is not
20:04affordable.
20:05That's
20:06the
20:07problem.
20:08Now,
20:09the
20:10problem
20:11is that
20:12we
20:13share
20:14with
20:15used
20:16cars
20:17that
20:18don't
20:19have
20:20an
20:21industry.
20:22But
20:23the
20:24middle
20:25class
20:26still
20:27wants
20:28to
20:29buy
20:30a
20:31new
20:32car.
20:33So,
20:34the
20:35middle
20:36class
20:37still
20:38wants
20:39to
20:40buy
20:41a
20:42new
20:43car.
20:44We
20:45understand
20:46that the
20:47government
20:48needs
20:49more
20:50liquidity
20:51in
20:52the
20:53market.
20:54The
20:55national
20:56debt
20:57is a
20:58bit
20:59crucial.
21:00And
21:01this is
21:02a bit
21:03dilemmatic,
21:04but
21:05the
21:06government
21:07needs
21:08to
21:09support
21:10it.
21:11First,
21:12we can
21:13see that
21:14the
21:15economy
21:16of 50
21:17million
21:18people,
21:19the
21:20middle
21:21class,
21:22can
21:23run
21:24on
21:25electricity
21:26and
21:27gas.
21:28So,
21:29they
21:30can
21:31run
21:32on
21:33electricity
21:34and
21:35gas
21:36and
21:37they
21:38can
21:39run
21:40on
21:41electricity
21:42and
21:43gas
21:44and
21:45they
21:46can
21:47run
21:48on
21:49can grow again, and it is hoped that there will be a continuation of the incentives for the PPNBM.
21:58Because, as Mr. Huku said, about 45% of the components are due to costs related to taxes,
22:11distribution, and so on, for a vehicle in Indonesia.
22:15It means that if there is a collaboration between the ministries,
22:20our industry can grow more efficiently, and the price does not have to be as expensive as it is now.
22:25That's what I can say. But it's a complex issue.
22:28Okay, that's it. Indeed, incentives can still be a game changer for the automotive industry, Mr. Yanis.
22:35Mr. Huku, what do you think about the projection related to distribution, production,
22:40and sales from our automotive industry until the end of the year, based on the previous condition?
22:45Yes, we will see until next month what the trend is like.
22:51We don't want to rush, and even send a negative signal, a negative sentiment.
22:58We hope that this can recover in July,
23:04so that the public is also encouraged to buy a motorcycle,
23:13because there will be a lot of new alternatives, new cars, which are quite competitive.
23:20In July, a variety of products will appear, and this is also one of the interesting things in this situation.
23:29Our exhibition in the next month is the third largest exhibition in the world after China.
23:36So we don't have land anymore, the land is about 120,000 square meters.
23:41So we hope that the public will also come there to see what is there,
23:46and then this will also encourage the purchase of motorcycles.
23:49Again, our people are still interested in relatively affordable segments,
23:56and the seven-seater is still one of the keys.
24:02That's it, Mr. Pres.
24:03Okay, Mr. Yanis, lastly, what is your projection?
24:05Then related to the purchasing power of the public,
24:08is there a need for relaxation related to financing?
24:12Because this seems to be a middle-class struggle to buy things.
24:16Yes, so the point is that the government needs to choose wisely its strategy.
24:22Whether he wants to take the profit from the sale of one vehicle, which is increased,
24:28or increase the wholesale of the vehicle, up to the retail.
24:33If the retail sells more, the funds that go into the government, even the PPNBMDON, will be large.
24:42Then, Mr. Gokul has given signs,
24:46there are a lot of cool cars, especially non-Japanese,
24:50which will enter Indonesia, there will be crazy exhibitions in this style,
24:54and then this is really awaited by the millennials who have just entered the middle class,
24:59whose income, their ability, can reach around 5 million per month.
25:05The figure, right?
25:07Yes, the figure.
25:08This will be very interesting, because they can be said to be very technological-minded.
25:15There are a lot of products with technological features and cool designs.
25:19Okay, that's it.
25:20So, the projection is still optimistic with various innovations,
25:24and maybe there is one more thing related to how affordable it is,
25:29which is a joint effort for the community to be able to buy a vehicle,
25:34for either the individual or the family.
25:37And we'll see what the result is,
25:40if Mr. Yanis will also be the result of the next government policy in 2024.
25:46Okay, Mr. Gokul Kumara, thank you very much for the time and sharing that you have conveyed to the audience,
25:50and continue to advance for our national automotive industry.
25:53Then, Mr. Yanis, thank you for the interesting insight that you have conveyed to the audience today.
25:57Congratulations on continuing your online activities again.
26:00Good health.
26:01Mr. Gokul, Mr. Yanis, thank you.
26:04Thank you, Mr. Peras, Mr. Yanis.
26:06Thank you, Mr. Gokul, Mr. Peras.
26:09Yes, viewers, don't leave your seat.
26:11We'll be back with another interesting topic,
26:13related to the Rupiah Revival.
26:16We'll be right back.