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00:00Friday I talked about trade management being the best forex strategy.
00:04I firmly believe that, but I also believe that a random entry is not a great plan.
00:10Today I'll show you an entry strategy that I like.
00:13Stay tuned.
00:35Hi this is Tim from TradingStrategyGuides.com.
00:38My voice is probably even worse than last week.
00:41Please bear with me.
00:43Hopefully I won't lose it completely.
00:46Today I'm going to show you a quick entry strategy that will help you in your trading.
00:50After that I'm going to show you a good looking weekly setup on gold.
00:55But first, updates on our open trade.
00:57Yes, once again I've only got one open trade.
01:01And then later on the trading maxim for today.
01:03Let's do this thing.
01:05Remember to click the subscribe button and hit that bell so you don't miss learning any
01:09of these great forex strategies.
01:12Alright on to our open trade.
01:14I mentioned Friday that I sold the bitcoin cross at 60.62 right here on this close.
01:22It's been retesting the broken range right here all weekend with ever declining volume.
01:30We've got a small consolidation forming right here with a real bearish tendency because
01:35of all these rejection wicks up here.
01:40I'm still holding this.
01:42I believe we'll get a drop on it in the next few days.
01:45Remember we got our profit on the New Zealand Swissy.
01:49But I mentioned in Friday's video that I want to continue to watch it to see what our results
01:53would have been like if I had used the parabolic SAR for following the stops.
01:59As you can see parabolic SAR is getting close to what would be our break even stop loss
02:08right here at 63.89ish which was our entry point.
02:13Tomorrow we may be able to move the stop a bit.
02:16Remember I'm no longer in this trade as I closed the second half at the original first
02:22target several days ago right here as I recall.
02:28This is just a test to see what the result would have been had we used the PSAR to follow
02:34the stops.
02:35Okay I'll show you the gold setup shortly but first I'm going to show you this great
02:39forex strategy.
02:41Today I'm going to show you a great forex entry method that I've tested and used a bit
02:45myself.
02:46The ARUN indicator sometimes called ARUN up and down.
02:51Investopedia defines the ARUN as a technical indicator that is used to identify trend changes
02:57in the price of an asset as well as the strength of that trend.
03:01For you geeky folks just like me here is the formula for calculating the ARUN indicator.
03:10This formula shows 25 periods but I actually use a 14 period ARUN which is the default
03:16for both TradingView and MT4.
03:21Installing the ARUN indicator on TradingView is just like any other indicator.
03:26Click up here on indicators.
03:29Click on built-ins and then select ARUN.
03:33Now you guys know how I am.
03:36I'm never satisfied with the original colors.
03:38I believe the original colors were like blue and orange or something I don't remember now.
03:44If you want to change that just hover over the name over here on the left.
03:49Click the gear icon.
03:51Click style and then you can select whatever colors you want for the up and for the down
04:00and I also double the line thickness as usual for my old eyes.
04:06And when you've done that you can click on defaults and save as default and it will come
04:11up with those colors every time you pull it up now.
04:15Click OK.
04:16To me the downside of this indicator is that you have to remember what the buy color and
04:20sell colors are.
04:22I use my standard red and green so I don't have to think about it too hard.
04:26Anything that you can do to reduce your mistakes when taking trades is a good thing.
04:31In the interest of complete transparency I'm just going to start on the US dollar Japanese
04:36yen daily chart over here and show you all the signals.
04:41The first signal I'm going to show you is this crossover from red to green.
04:46So if the red is on top you know that it's a sell signal.
04:51That candle happened right here and the close of the candle the ATR was 66 so our stop loss
04:59was 99 or one and a half times the ATR and our take profit was 66 pips and it came nicely
05:08on the very next day and hit our take profit.
05:13Next crossover is right here.
05:16On this candle it's green over red so you know it's a buy.
05:23So a buy on this close right here the ATR was 77 our stop loss is 116 and our first
05:30target was 77.
05:33So you can see a couple of days later it came up here and hit our target.
05:38The next crossover signal is red over green right here so this is a sell signal.
05:44On the close of this candle right here the ATR was 61 so our target was 61 it was hit
05:53a couple of days later and the next signal was green over red so it was a buy on this
05:59candle right here and we've got a bit of a consolidation going on right here.
06:06The ATR was 69 so our first target was 69 and it got hit right here on this candle.
06:14And now we've got a few losses.
06:17This crossover red over green happened right here so this was a sell right here ATR 53
06:26our stop loss was 80 and it hit our stop right there.
06:31This crossover green over red happened right here a buy signal the ATR of 55 stop loss
06:40of 83 so it hit our stop loss right here and then this crossover right here is red
06:49over green so sell signal right here hit our stop right here and we missed this signal
06:58because it happened while this trade was open on this candle right here.
07:03So right here I showed you four wins three losses.
07:07You may not get too excited about four wins and three losses but you can make bank on
07:13anything that gives you four wins and three losses.
07:16Okay I've used this for so long I don't even recall whether the ARUN indicator is included
07:23with MT4 or not.
07:25If not you can look right over here at the MQL5 code base.
07:32This is the link I'll include the link in the description below so you can download
07:37it from there.
07:38In any case here's what the ARUN indicator looks like on MT4.
07:44Again I've changed the colors I think the up color was blue and the down color was red
07:50and I've been known to use blue as an up color but I wanted to be consistent with my coloring
07:57so I changed this to green and red.
08:00And that's the ARUN indicator entry strategy.
08:04Remember I'm showing you a bunch of different strategies on the channel here but you need
08:08to pick one that fits your trading style and concentrate on it.
08:12Don't jump around too much or you'll never achieve your goals.
08:16And be sure to test everything thoroughly.
08:19Back test go back several years if you're going to be trading this on a shorter time
08:24frame you don't have to go back that far.
08:26On a daily time frame I would test it back for three or four years.
08:30Hey guys there are three traders here that I think are really awesome and I want to congratulate
08:36them right now.
08:38Guys I appreciate you I believe that your success is imminent.
08:41I know there's got to be more people on the sidelines that want to make a commitment to
08:46be a successful trader so here's this week's challenge.
08:50Next video I'm going to ask you to do a specific action step and I'm not going to tell you
08:56what it is right now.
08:58So it's going to take an active faith on your part to see who is ready to make a commitment
09:03to be successful.
09:05This will be a two part series.
09:06Number one you're going to make the commitment in the comments on this video and number two
09:12I'm going to see who actually follows through with their word and as you know honoring your
09:16word is really important.
09:17Alright let's take a look at the weekly gold setup.
09:21Gold has been in this dropping bullish wedge since early September right here.
09:28The bullish wedge is a triangle pattern with a dropping point.
09:32It's typically a continuation pattern and will appear in a strong uptrend like this
09:38right here.
09:39I sometimes identify support levels like here and here just so I stay alert to a possible
09:47breakout when I see a strong bounce from one of these levels.
09:51In this case 1440ish and 1398ish.
09:57Remember a line is never just a line it's always a zone so the bounce from these levels
10:02may not be perfect.
10:04We'll be looking for a close above this pattern to go long and that's our trade plan.
10:11We will simply buy a weekly close above the bullish wedge.
10:16On the breaking candle to enter a full size position we want to see this volume bar reach
10:22up at least to this volume average right here.
10:27If it doesn't quite make the average but makes 75% of the average then we'll take a half
10:32size position to reduce risk.
10:34You can calculate that by dividing this volume number by this volume average and you should
10:40get at least .75.
10:43If you don't get at least .75 stand aside on the trade.
10:48Stop loss on this trade will be one and a half times the ATR and the first target will
10:53be one times the ATR.
10:55So that means again on the breaking candle let's say it breaks up to here and you get
11:01a close right there at that level you want to look at the ATR multiply it by one and
11:07a half times and measure that distance down here behind the trade for your stop loss.
11:16Measure one times the ATR above the trade for your target.
11:21If after entering the trade we get a close back inside the wedge we will take the loss
11:27right then and not wait for it to hit the stop loss.
11:31Our intention is that a breakout above this pattern should be explosive and hit our target
11:35fairly quickly.
11:37If the momentum goes away we want to shut the trade down without taking a full stop
11:41if possible.
11:42When the price hits our first target we'll close half the position for profit and set
11:47the stop loss to break even on the remainder.
11:50We will then follow stops as price moves in our direction until the market takes us out.
11:55These two rules are the very definition of cutting your losses and letting your winners
11:59run.
12:00Typically I do this using two positions.
12:02The first position has a stop loss and a take profit attached to it.
12:07That position will close automatically when the first target is hit.
12:10The second position will have only a stop loss associated with it and that's the position
12:15that will be allowed to run.
12:17When the first target is hit we will have to manually move our stop loss up to break
12:21even on the second position.
12:23I will only risk about 2% of my account on this trade.
12:27That's the new setup on gold.
12:30My intent here is to tell you how I intend to manage these trades.
12:35If you've already got a good trade management plan, use it.
12:38Things that work for me may not work for you.
12:40You have to understand your own mind to find the best strategies for your own trading.
12:45And that's my intent for the trading maxims.
12:48To help control your emotional impulses and keep you on the straight and narrow path.
12:53A maxim is a general truth, fundamental principle, rule of conduct or a proverbial saying.
12:58The purpose of my maxims is to motivate me to discipline in trading as well as other
13:03areas of my life.
13:05I suggest you start your own list of maxims, things that you can say to yourself while
13:09you're trading or doing life to make sure you always do the right thing.
13:13Feel free to borrow from my list.
13:15And today Tim's Trading Maxim number 19.
13:19Would you take that trade if your mentor was looking over your shoulder?
13:23This is actually a quote from my mentor Casey Stubbs.
13:27Except he didn't say it to me.
13:29I got this from a trader that has followed us for a very long time.
13:33When she's not traveling anyway.
13:35Always think about what your mentor would say to you about that trade you're about to
13:39take.
13:40Would he be happy with it?
13:42Would he take it himself?
13:44Casey would say, does it follow your rules?
13:48This maxim has kept me out of many bad situations.
13:51Remember our weekly gold trade plan here.
13:54We're going to buy a weekly candle close above the bullish wedge.
13:58If the volume is not quite average, go half size as long as it's at least 75% of the average.
14:04Your stop loss is 1.5x the ATR and your first target is 1x the ATR.
14:10And remember to click the link below to the trade management video for more details.
14:15And don't miss any of my trading picks.
14:18Sign up for my free trading picks email list so you don't miss them.
14:22I send out 3 or 4 trading picks a week.
14:25Everything from stocks to futures to cryptos to forex.
14:28And you'll get to see them first.
14:29And the best thing is, it's free.
14:32I'll put the link below this video.
14:35Be sure to come back to Trading Strategy Guide's YouTube channel every week on Monday, Wednesday
14:40and Friday at 3pm U.S. Eastern time for my new videos.
14:44We'll have a nice trade set up or two on each one and maybe some extra Q&A or training.
14:49Don't hesitate to ask any questions you may have.
14:52I'll either answer your question right in the comments or in a training video or both.
14:58And remember the only stupid question is the unasked one.
15:02And don't forget, I'm asking you to take a leap of faith by saying you're willing to
15:05do whatever it takes to be a successful trader.
15:09Comment below if you're willing to do that and I'll share with you on Wednesday what
15:12your action step will be.
15:15As always, thanks for watching, thanks for subscribing.
15:18Don't forget to hit the thumbs up below.
15:21Have a great week and I will see you next time.